Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals +101
The Kansas City Royals (85-71) are determined to make the postseason this year. They picked up a 2-0 win at Cleveland last night to suck the life out of the Indians, who are 3.5 games out of the wild card with only five games to play and know that they are pretty much done for. The Royals still have the AL Central title within their grasp as they trail the Tigers by just one game.
Yordano Ventura has been excellent this season for the Royals, going 13-10 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.279 WHIP over 28 starts. The right-hander is 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA in 12 road starts, and 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts overall. Ventura is also 2-0 with a minuscule 1.98 ERA in four career starts against Cleveland.
Danny Salazar has struggled a bit this season, going 6-7 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in 19 starts. He has not performed well down the stretch when these games have matter most, either, going 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts. Salazar is 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA in four career starts against Kansas City.
The Royals are 15-4 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after three straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. Kansas City is 8-2 in Ventura's last 10 starts overall. Cleveland is 0-6 in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 3-8 in Salazar's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Steve Janus
Phillies/Marlins Under 6½
I'm not expecting to see a whole lot of offense in this one, as the Phillies send out their ace Cole Hamels against the Marlins Henderson Alvarez. Hamels has a 1.76 ERA and 1.127 WHIP over 15 road starts, while Alvarez enters with a 1.75 ERA and 1.032 WHIP over 13 home starts. Hamels allowed just 1 run over 7 innings in his last starts against the Marlins and Alvarez has allowed just 4 runs in his last 20 2/3 innings against the Phillies.
Adding value here is that both offenses come in struggling to score runs. Philadelphia is averaging just 3.1 runs and hitting .223 as a team over their last 7 games, while Miami is only averaging 2.6 runs and hitting .249 as a team over their last 7 games.
Key Trends - UNDER is 33-16 in Hamels' last 49 road starts when working with 5-6 days of rest and 34-16-1 in his last 51 road starts vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-9 in Miami's last 30 games after recording 4 or less hits and 13-5-1 in their last 19 games when listed as a dog of +110 to +150.
System - UNDER is 139-84 (62%) over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a road team off a loss by 2 runs or less against an opponent scoring and allowing 4 runs or less in their last 3 games.
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies +112
The Rockies are showing value at this price considering how dominant De La Rosa has been against the Padres. The Rockies are 13-1 in his last 14 starts against them, and he has held them to three earned runs or less in each of the last five outings. De La Rosa has been one of the few bright spots for Colorado this season. He has given up three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts and 10 of his last 13. The Rockies are 43-18 in De La Rosa's last 61 starts versus teams with a losing record. San Diego's Erlin is making his second start since missing four months with elbow issues, and he's had trouble with the Rockies, posting a 7.71 ERA in three appearances against them this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City -101 over CLEVELAND
Either you rise to the occasion or you don’t and that’s what separates the contenders from the pretenders. With a GREAT chance to make the playoffs a number of teams began to play their worst baseball of the season. A week ago, the Indians appeared to be out of it also, but then they got hot while the teams in front of them went cold. Suddenly, after holding on last night to win 4-3 over the Royals in the completion of a 10th inning rain-out in K.C. on Aug 31, (they played a half inning last night), the Indians found themselves 3½-games back with three games against the Royals on deck. Instead of seizing the opportunity to cut the lead to 2½-games, the Indians did the opposite and failed to score a single run in a 2-0 defeat to fall back to 4½ games out. That was Cleveland’s defining moment of the season and they failed miserably when every hitter came up to the plate trying to be a hero by swinging for the fences. That loss was the proverbial nail in Cleveland’s coffin and we certainly don’t trust them to rebound here.
It’ll be Danny Salazar versus Yordano Ventura. Ventura is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in three starts versus the Indians this season. Eight of his last 10 starts have resulted in pure quality starts and he is 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA over his last five starts. Danny Salazar has turned his dominant stuff into dominant results with a 2.30 ERA, 1.11 since July 1. We could elaborate on these two starters but this wager is based more on fading the Indians after they let an opportunity go by. Last night’s win by the Royals was their biggest and most important of the year, which is a big confidence and momentum boost that we trust will carry over into this one.
LT Profits
Houston vs. Texas
Pick: Astros +103
The Texas Rangers have somehow won nine of their last 10 games, but they were excited about playing spoiler vs. playoff contenders the first eight of those wins and they do not have that motivation taking on the Houston Astros. Granted Texas took the series opener 4-3, but that was with Derek Holland, who has been pitching out of his mind, starting. We look for a return to normalcy tonight with Nicholas Martinez making a very shaky favorite given his 4-11 record, 4.85 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, not to mention his terrible command as he has just 70 strikeouts and an alarming 55 walks in 128 innings! Brett Oberholtzer may not seem much better based on his 4.39 ERA for Houston, but he does have a commendable 1.34 WHIP and an excellent ratio of 91 strikeouts vs. 26 walks. The Rangers are 3-9 in their last 12 games as favorites.
Wunderdog
San Francisco @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -130
No one has done it better than Zack Greinke when it comes to taking the mound as a home favorite. Over the last decade, he has struggled mightily on the road, but has been Superman at home. Greinke is a woeful 59-88 when he takes the mound on the road, but as a home favorite he is an amazing 74-27. He also fits into a subset of that home favorite record, which is a ridiculous 43-1. Those are hard numbers to ignore - especially on short odds. He also has a pedigree against the Giants where the Dodgers are 5-0 in his last five starts against them. The Giants have wilted as a dog in their last 26, carrying the burden of a 7-19 record, and it will be hard to overcome that in this one against the best in this role MLB has to offer. The Dodgers get this one behind Greinke at home.
Bruce Marshall
Rockies at Padres
Play: Padres
Perhaps we should have included San Diego as a selection last night, as Colorado entered Monday's game having lost 34 of 39 on the road. Make that 35 of 40 after last night's 1-0 defeat against the Padres. More of the same can be expected tonight, especially since San Diego's 23-7 mark at home since the All-Star break is the best in MLB. Tuesday starter Robbie Erlin contributed to the team's home success Thursday, allowing one run over six innings in a 7-3 victory over Philadelphia in his first start in four months due to elbow soreness. Meanwhile, the Rocks' Jorge De La Rosa is 0-5 with a 5.16 mark in his last five away from Coors Field and hasn't won a road outing since June 29.
Bob Balfe
San Diego Padres -120
The Rockies are 20-55 on the road so why not go against them every chance you have when they are not huge underdogs. This team can't score on the road and like I said yesterday this is a series in which the home team usually wins the game. The Padres have the better bullpen so we roll with them once again. Take San Diego
Sammy P
Florida Panthers Season Over/Under Points
Recommendation: Under 72.5
With the NHL upon us, I decided to supplant my weekly MLB free play with an NHL season over/under points recommendation. Some sportsbooks have early season point totals up and available. I see immediate value with taking the Florida Panthers under. This is a franchise that is complete disarray. The change of ownership has done nothing to put the city of Sunrise, Florida at ease that one, they will win, and two, that they will remain in Florida. The owners are speaking out of both sides of their mouth. Despite the recent letter to fans that the team will remain in Florida, co-owner Doug Cifu said recently in August, "The arena and the team have lost a significant amount of money year over year for the last 10-plus years and the current business model is not sustainable." The doesn’t sound very positive to me coupled with the face that this team is young, inexperienced, and prone to mistakes. The trade for Roberto Luongo and the signing of Willie Mitchell is just a band aid to cover up an otherwise dreadful defensive system. The Panthers did go out and get some off season help up front, but the signings of Dave Bolland, Jussi Jokinen, Shawn Thornton, and Derek MacKenzie don't impress me at all. This team is going to have to rely on their young forwards to get the job done. Over the long 82-game season I just don't see them having the depth to compete night in and night out. This is a team where one or two injuries (which always seem to happen throughout the season) will be too much to overcome. The Panthers were playing with a virtual AHL roster by the end of the 2014 season. My power rankings have them last in the Atlantic division with a point total of 63. Take this team under their season total.
OC Dooley
SF Giants +130
For those not aware San Francisco during the weekend was actually swept by the lowly Padres in San Diego. But with last night’s THIRTEEN inning marathon victory they stayed in the National League West divisional chase and are now a staggering “6-2” on the campaign when playing AT Dodger Stadium so they are not intimidated by this venue. Going all the way back to the beginning of the 2012 campaign Madison Bumgarner (7-2, 1.61 ERA) has owned the Dodgers and he is on the mound for San Francisco this evening. For the entire campaign on the ROAD and with Bumgarner as their starting pitcher the Giants (13-4) have been nearly unbeatable. For those into “familiarity” the Giants offense is getting a FIFTH look at Zack Greinke who recently has been dealing with minor injury and has not been as effective as earlier in the campaign. With baseball’s best pitcher on the mound tomorrow (Clayton Kershaw) it is imperative that San Francisco find a way to continue their prosperity at Dodger Stadiium this evening