Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 24

Alex Smart

Washington Nationals +128

The Nationals lost last night, to today's opponent the Cardinals , but have proved to be resilient of late bouncing back 6 straight times after a negative result. Washington has also played well on the road winning 6 of their L/7 as visitors and are a bankroll expanding 11-2 in their L/13 game 2 series tilts. It must also be noted that when their starter Gonzalez starts for them on the road the team has a 23-8 L/31 moneyline record. The Nationals have recently backed Gonzalez with alot of run support, scoring a combined 45 runs in his L/6 starts.He has done his part to, as is evident by recording 4-1 record along with a 1.87 ERA over his L/ 33 2/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Cards have lost 4 of their L/5 at home as favorites when their starter Wachas goes to the hill. The 22 yr old in his last start was smashed for four runs and 12 hits in 4 2/3 innings, and has looked vulnerable despite of some over powering stuff.

Justin Bay

Toronto Blue Jays +1½ -140

Todd Redmond will be taking the mound for the Blue Jays in this game versus the Orioles who have put themselves out of the playoff race in the last month. Redmond has had pretty good success against the O's this season with a 3.48 ERA through 10.1 innings. In the month of September, he has been very solid with a 2.45 ERA through 18.1 IP. Redmond is coming off a solid outing against the Yankees going seven innings and letting up only one earned run.

Chris Tillman will be on the bump for the Orioles and he has had fairly good success against the Jays this season with a 3.86 ERA through 25.2 innings. Tillman has struggled a bit at home with a 4.07 ERA and in the month of September he has a 4.28 ERA.

The Orioles have been struggling this month and played themselves right out of the playoff race unless a couple teams do a lot of losing in the next week. After losing to the Rays yesterday and Machado done for the season, the Orioles might come into this game a little flat. The Blue Jays are a very dangerous team that runs under the radar and can put up a lot of runs very quickly. Look for the Blue Jays to cover this 1.5 run spread.

Art Aronson

San Francisco Giants -117

The visitors will send Hyun-Jin Ryu (13-7, 3.03 ERA) to the hill at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Ryu allowed two runs on only two hits over eight innings in his last start, a loss against the Diamondbacks. Ryu is 1-2 with a 2.81 ERA in four starts against San Francisco, allowing three runs over 13 1/3 innings to help the Dodgers win his last two meetings. Note that Ryu has lost four of his last five starts. The Giants will counter with Matt Cain (8-9, 4.06 ERA). Cain gave up no earned runs over 7 2/3 innings before the bullpen blew the lead in his last start versus the Mets. Cain was effective in his most recent meeting with the Dodgers when he allowed one earned run over seven innings in a 3-2, 10-inning loss in Los Angeles on Sept. 12. San Francisco has won six of its last ten games while LA is just 4-6 in the last ten. The Giants have also won four of six meetings in San Fran this season. Lay the little extra juice to get San Francisco.

Doug Upstone

San Diego Padres -111

Padres starter Tyson Ross hasn't won a game at home all season long but that is about to change. He has an ERA of 2.18 at Petco this season, far too good to not have scored a victory to date. Ross and the Padres are looking to finish strong and took the opener of the series last night. I am sure he and the team are aware of the oddity of his home record and break through this evening in an otherwise meaningless game.

Nick Parsons

Cleveland Indians -1½ -109

I released a "run-line" play on the Rangers last night and they'd go on to smoke the Astros 12-0.

That means that Texas sits just one game behind the Indians for the lead in the AL wild-card race.

With what I believe is the clearly superior starter in this particular matchup, and with a ton of motivational factors working in its favor, I believe the table is set for the home side to win convincingly.

Hector Santiago (4-9, 3.53 ERA)

Santiago had his last start skipped over, but the beleaguered southpaw is set to get go tonight; in his last outing he gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over just four innings in a 3-1 loss to the Indians on Friday.

The 25-year old has now given up a combined nine runs over his last three starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.49 ERA)

Jimenez struck out nine Astros on Thursday, ultimately giving up one earned run off six scattered hits with no walks in seven innings of work. Unfortunately the veteran was saddled with a no-decision for his superb effort.

The big right-hander has now posted eight K's or more in six of his last seven starts and has held his opposition to just a total of two earned runs over his last 28 1/3's frames of work.

The Bottom Line

The Tribe have dominated this series, winning 15 of the last 17. Cleveland has averaged a whopping 7.5 runs and hit .318 during 12 consecutive victories over the White Sox.

Chicago is coming off satisfying back-to-back victories over Toronto, but note that it's not won three-straight since mid August.

With such overall dominance vs. the White Sox, it comes as no surprise to learn that several of the Indians' hitters have feasted on their starting pitching; Nick Swisher has five home runs and 12 RBIs vs. them this season; Ryan Raburn is hitting .381 with four home runs and 18 RBIs; Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera each have driven in 11 runs; Yan Gomes is hitting .378; Carlos Santana is batting .362.

Enough said.

Consider laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox -143

Boston fits a 90% system that has cashed 9 of 10 times this season and plays on road favorites off a home favored win by 2 or more runs if they scored 5 or more runs and their opponent is off a home loss. Colorado has lost 16 of 18 at home vs American League teams and 26 of 36 after allowing 10 or more runs in their last game. Boston is 9-3 as a road favorite from -125 to -150 and has won 20 of the last 28 vs losing teams and 14 of 20 in September. We will back the Redsox and J. Lackey over Colorado and T. Chatwood in this one as Boston has the better team.

Jim Feist

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Washington Nationals

Your free play for Tuesday, September 24th comes in National League action as the Nationals and Cardinals meet in St. Louis. Washington is hot at the right time, 24-8 in their last 32 overall. They have a strong lefty going in Gio Gonzalez (10-7, 3.40 ERA) who has struck out 183 in 182+ innings and allowed just 156 hits. Gonzalez held the Marlins to two earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out three in six inning, and the win was his fourth in his last five starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA his last three starts. The Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter while the Cardinals are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Bryan Power

NY Mets vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati

Though the Reds overall numbers vs. lefties are a bit troublesome, they are still in the midst of a pennant race + they are a perfect 4-0 this season vs. the Mets. They shouldn't need many runs Tuesday considering Mike Leake is on the hill as he's working on a 13+ inning scoreless streak....

The Reds have won six of their last seven overall following Monday's 3-2 win in extra innings. As I said above, they are now 4-0 vs. the Mets this year & tonight's pitching matchup certainly seems to be in their favor with Leake opposing Jonathan Niese. Leake has a 0.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP his last three starts overall, all of those outings resulting in Cincinnati victories. Niese, meanwhile, has a 5.66 ERA and 1.743 WHIP on the road. Leake has had the Mets number as well, with a 4-1 team start record, 1.31 ERA and 0.956 WHIP. Niese has a 1-4 TSR all-time vs. the Reds.

Leake has faced the Mets one time this year, back in May, and there he threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball. He beat Niese that day 4-0. Leake is also coming off B2B scoreless outings, including a 10-0 victory his last time out. The Reds offense has also been far more reliable of late than that of the Mets.

Will Rogers

Tampa Bay vs. NY Yankees
Pick: Under

The Rays came from behind to beat the Orioles yesterday 5-4. Foortunately, I had Baltimore on the run line, meaning I won +1.5. Things will get no easier for Tampa Bay Tuesday as they open a series in the Bronx. With a pitching matchup of Matt Moore vs. Hiroki Kuroda, I like the under.

Here are my keys to the game

1. Matt Moore - He has been spectacular on the road this year with an 8-1 record (12-2 TSR) in 14 starts with a 2.76 ERA and 1.227 WHIP. He comes in off a rough outing at home vs. Texas, but look for him to bounce back here against a Yankees lineup averaging just 2.9 runs over its last seven games.

2. Hiroki Kuroda - As good as Moore has been on the road, Kuroda has been even better at home. He has a 1.97 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 13 starts at Yankees Stadium with the Under going 8-4-1. Overall, the Under is 20-8-3 in his 31 starts this season, including 13-2 if the Yankees are off a loss. The Under is 11-3 when he starts as an underdog.

3. X-Factor - The Rays are 20-10 Under in division road games.

Bruce Marshall

NY Mets vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5

The Reds are back into the playoffs but that is not enough for them in this last week, as they would like to collar the Cardinals for the NL Central crown if possible, or at the least pull ahead of the Pirates to host the one-game wild card playoff next week. Facing the lowly Mets is a plus for tonight, as is starter Mike Leake, who has been dominant of late, winning three straight starts behind a 0.84 ERA with a career-high 20 1/3 scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Mets starter Jonathon Niese is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA in five lifetime starts vs. Cincy.

Jimmy Boyd

Los Angeles Angels +112

The Oakland A's have clinched the division, and they made a pitching change prior to today's game sending A.J. Griffin to the mound. It is hard not to like a home team like the Angels when they are facing an opponent that is already thinking about the post season. The Angels have a .271 batting average at home, and over their past seven games they have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game. They are clearly a team that is not giving up on the year yet.

The starting pitcher matchup also favors Los Angeles in this game. A.J. Griffin has a 4.07 ERA on the road this season. In his last trip to Anaheim, Griffin was a 4-1 loser, giving up four runs and three homers in just five innings pitched. He is up against Jason Vargas for the Angels. Vargas has been solid at home, posting a 5-2 record in 11 starts and a 3.73 ERA. Oakland is 2-6 in Griffin's last eight starts against AL West opponents, and facing an Angels team that is 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies +133

The Red Sox have already clinched the American League East but they still have something to play for and that is the best overall record in the American League. Establishing that would earn them a playoff matchup with the Wild Card winner. Boston finished its final homestand of the season with a 6-3 record which locked up the best home record in the American League and while it has been solid on the road, it hasn't been nearly as strong. Speaking of strong, that is what John Lackey was in his last start as he allowed just one run on two hits in a complete game win over the Orioles. It snapped a string of two straight non-quality starts where he allowed 11 runs in 12 innings, one of which came on the road. At home, Lackey has a 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts, going 6-3 but on the road he is just 4-9 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 15 starts. The Red Sox are 5-10 in those games and have scored just 3.3 rpg behind him. Additionally, the Red Sox are 2-5 in Lackey's last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Rockies are 3-4 on this current homestand with two games remaining so finishing strong is the goal in what was a very disappointing season. Playing home has been the strength as Colorado is 44-35 compared to a dismal 27-51 record on the road. The Rockies have recently played very well against the top teams in baseball as they are 7-0 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. They send Tyler Chatwood to the mound and he has quietly put together a pretty solid season, posting a 3.36 ERA over his 19 starts. He has not been at his best since re-entering the rotation following a stint on the disabled list bit the Rockies are 5-1 in his last six home starts against teams with a winning record while going 6-2 in his last eight starts as a home underdog.

Steve Janus

San Diego Padres -108

The Padres have continued to play well down the stretch, despite having absolutely no shot at a making the playoffs. San Diego is a respectable 13-8 in the month of September and have won 6 of their last 9 overall and 7 of their last 10 at home. The Padres opened up their 4-game series against the Diamondbacks with a 4-1 victory on Monday and are now 6-1 at home vs the Diamondbacks this season.

I look for the dominance to continue with a very favorable pitching matchup tonight. San Diego will send out Tyson Ross, who despite a 3-5 record has pitched exceptionally well. Ross has a 3.15 ERA and 1.112 WHIP over 14 starts and an even better 2.84 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in five starts at Petco Park. He's allowed just 4 earned runs on 10 hits over 14 innings in his two career starts vs Arizona.

The Diamondbacks counter with Wade Miley, who is 10-10 with a respectable 3.75 ERA in 31 starts. However, Miley can't be looking forward to this matchup. He's 1-6 with a 5.96 ERA in eight career starts vs the Padres and 0-4 with a 5.82 ERA against San Diego this season. A big reason for that is the Padres have thrived against left handed starters, as they are hitting .255 with an average of 4.3 runs/game. That's well above their season averages of .243 and 3.7.

Dave Price

Cleveland Indians -1½ -108

Needing to win to stay a game ahead of the Rangers in the AL wild-card race, Cleveland won't overlook a Chicago club it has defeated 12 consecutive times. These wins have come by an average of 4.3 runs while the Indians have averaged 7.5 runs and batted .318. Cleveland is in good hands with Ubaldo Jimenez set to get the ball. The right-hander has a 1.65 ERA over his last 10 starts. The Tribe has won his last four starts while the Sox have dropped Hector Santiago's last three starts. The White Sox have lost both of Santiago's starts against the Indians this year while Cleveland has won both of Jimenez's starts against Chicago this season. Take Cleveland on the run line.