Doug Upstone
San Diego Padres -111
Padres starter Tyson Ross hasn't won a game at home all season long but that is about to change. He has an ERA of 2.18 at Petco this season, far too good to not have scored a victory to date. Ross and the Padres are looking to finish strong and took the opener of the series last night. I am sure he and the team are aware of the oddity of his home record and break through this evening in an otherwise meaningless game.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI -110 over Philadelphia
The Phillies are another one of those teams that can’t get this season over quick enough. Philadelphia has dropped five in a row. They are finished playing at home this season now must play in an empty stadium with no atmosphere. The Phillies dropped the opener last night, 4-0. They had short AB’s and quick half innings at the plate. The Phillies epitomize the term, “playing out the string”. Zach Miner has made one start and 13 relief appearances this season. He’s not likely to go past four innings here because he does not have the stamina to do so. In just 22 innings over 14 appearances, Miner has walked 12 batters. That’s when he’s been called in to face one or two batters. In relief, Miner has an xERA of 6.02 and he also brings a 1.52 WHIP to the table. If the Phillies were playing any other team besides Miami or Houston, Miner would be a +170 pooch. We get the benefit of that value here by playing the favorite.
Miami is not as bad as you might think. This team will not be a pushover next season. They have the potential of an outstanding starting staff with Jose Fernandez, Nathan Eovaldi and tonight’s starter, Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez comes in with a 4-5 record in 15 starts to go along with a serviceable 4.05 ERA. However, a look under the hood shows the seeds of something good. Alvarez owns good velocity and a very nice groundball tilt (58% of his last five starts). He'll need to find more strikeouts to take a sustained step forward but there are elements in his pitch mix that suggest he can do so. Get this; Alvarez has allowed a measly four extra-base hits in 400+ times he has thrown his four-seam fastball, slider, and change-up. Alvarez can pitch and is a very cheap price against Zach Miner and a Phillies team that just wants to go home.
SAN DIEGO -108 over Arizona
The D-Backs are likely spent. After a huge four-game series against the Dodgers followed by a trip to the thin air in Colorado, Arizona came in here last night and dropped a 4-1 decision. They have three more games here before closing out the season at home against the Nationals, making these final three road games of the season difficult to get up for. To make matters worse, Arizona must now face Tyler Ross. Ross is at home in PETCO Park, which suppresses runs by 10% and LHB HRs by 15%. Since joining the rotation July 23, all four of his home starts have been pure quality. Ross has a 2.58 xERA, 10.5 k’s per nine and a 60% groundball rate over 26 IP over his past five starts. The D-backs are 15th in runs scored and are just 35-42 on the road. This is not a favorable matchup, nor a favorable spot.
Wade Miley has labored through the past month. The D-Backs have lost five of his past six starts and he’s been hit hard in many of them. Miley has never pitched as many innings as he’s pitched this season and one of the signs of fatigue is issuing free passes. He walked four in his last start in five innings and we’ve also seen a dip in his groundball rate from a solid 52% over his first 23 starts to just 38% over his last eight starts. Miley’s WHIP has also increased to an unacceptable level of 1.52 over his past five starts. We get the better pitcher in much better form, we also get the home side in the final week of the season and we get to spot less than a dime in a favorable situation. That works.
Milwaukee +134 over ATLANTA
Of all the post-season teams, the Braves seem the most disengaged at the moment and that makes them and Freddy Garcia a very sweet fade here. The Braves were 3-hit last night in a 5-0 loss. They’ve lost two of three and five of eight while being shut out in three of those five losses. Garcia will fill in here but come playoff time, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. Garcia’s 1.31 ERA in two starts makes him grossly overpriced here but in actuality, that ERA is laughable and just proves how luck plays a huge factor in small sample sizes. Garcia’s line drive rate in those two starts is 37% (league average is 21%) and his has a 90% strand rate (league average is 72%). Garcia is a 37-year-old, washed up, two-pitch pitcher, one of which is an 87-MPH fastball. He does not possess the stuff to get major-league hitters out with regularity. The Brewers are going good right now and figure to put up some runs here.
Tyler Thornburg was unceremoniously welcomed with 4 HR’s in his MLB debut. Three more went yard in next two games but work in minors suggests more hr/f fluke than chronic issue. On plus side, Thornburg showed ability to carry his good strikeout rate to the majors and he’s been very good in his past three starts with a 2-1 record and a skills supported 2.00 ERA over 18 frames. Bullpen may be home long term, but intriguing enough to keep an eye on and certainly worth a wager against the Braves and Garcia.
bookiemonsters
149-101-3 run
25-18-4 run last 47 plays
pod giants game under 6.5
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Tigres de Detroit -200
Indios de Cleveland -230
Vigilantes de Texas -1.5
Piratas de Pittsburgh/Cachorros de Chicago Under 8
Yesterday 3-1 MLB , 2-0 NFL
5-1 Over all Monday
Suerte
The Broker
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Joe Wiz
Free Play Tuesday Detroit/Minnesota Under 9
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Our Free Plays are 1101-828 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !
Free winner TUES A's w/ Griffin
Sam Martin
Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Solid line value backing the Rockies at home tonight against Boston, with the Red Sox already securing the AL East crown but starting a poor road pitcher in John Lakcey who has lost ten of his 15 road starts this season. Colorado's Tyler Chatwood has been decent at home with a winning 4-2 record and 6-4 team start record, but more impressively has kept his ERA under 4 in the hitter-friendly Colorado ballpark. Lackey's lone career trip to Colorado didn't go so well, giving up five runs in 6 2/3 IP in a no-decision but team loss. Grab the line value wiht the Rockies here.
Sean Murphy
Boston vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
This game is being priced as if the Red Sox are fighting for their playoff lives, but that simply isn't the case.
Having wrapped up the A.L. East title in their weekend series against Toronto, I look for the BoSox to suffer a bit of a letdown in Tuesday's series opener in Colorado.
While the Rockies are mired in another losing season, they've been a force at home - as usual. Colorado is a solid 44-35 at Coors Field this season and enters Tuesday's contest playing good baseball, securing six wins in its last nine games.
John Lackey will take the ball for the Red Sox. He's posted a nice 3.44 ERA this season, but that hasn't kept him from recording a losing record at 10-12. Note that the Red Sox are a miserable 5-10 in his 15 road starts this year, where his ERA has risen to 4.39. Coming off a complete game victory over the Orioles last week, I'm counting on a letdown from Lackey in this spot.
Tyler Chatwood will counter for Colorado. He's endured an up and down season, but has pitched relatively well here at home, going 4-2 with a 3.95 ERA. The Rockies have certainly brought out the bats in Chatwood's home outings, providing him with over six runs per start of support.
The Rockies are simply tearing the cover off of the ball right now, averaging just under five runs per nine innings while hitting .317 as a team over their last 10 contests. Home field should be the great equalizer on Tuesday night, as Colorado shows some pride and pulls off the minor upset.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays +150
The Baltimore Orioles have no business being this heavily favored over the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They trail the Cleveland Indians by five games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League with six games to play.
The Orioles have played themselves out of the postseason over the past week. They have lost five straight games coming in after getting swept by the Rays last series. Now, they will have a very hard time getting motivated to play the Toronto Blue Jays in this series.
I look for the Blue Jays to steal Game 1 tonight behind Todd Redmond, who is 4-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in 12 starts and three relief appearances this year. Redmond is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.655 WHIP in his last three starts as well.
The Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. Toronto is 4-1 in its last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Baltimore is 1-4 in its last 5 games as a home favorite. The Orioles are 1-6 in Chris Tillman's last 7 starts when working on 4 days or rest. Bet the Blue Jays Tuesday.
Jeff Alexander
Texas Rangers -1½ -144
The Rangers, who are fighting hard for a wild-card spot, have owned a Houston club that has lost 10 in a row by an average of 4.5 runs. With yesterday's 12-0 loss, the Astros have dropped nine straight to the Rangers by an average of 4.2 runs. Texas has won 4 of Darvish's 5 career starts versus Houston, and he has nearly no-hit the Astros twice this season. Take the Rangers on the run line.
Playersbet
Cincinnati -1½
NY Mets are 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Cincinnati is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Mets
Lets face it the Mets season has been over for a while now why the Reds are fighting for a division title. This game is a clear mismatch when we compare lineups. The Mets have brought up a bunch of their young talent to see what they have for the future while the Reds reamin with what has been workion gall year. The Reds own the Mets 4-0 SU this year and 9 out of their last 10 dating back to last year. We are all over the Reds today on the RL as this one shouldn’t be close.
Craig Davis
Now, as for today's free play, I'm taking the Tampa Bay Rays to knock the Yankees out of the playoff race.
New York should be absolutely embarrassed with this payroll and their non-comparable record. This is the worst team the Yankees have put on the field since the 1993 season... seriously. New York has been a regular staple in the post-season, but after tonight's loss, they will have pretty much knocked themselves out of the picture.
The Yankees are simply too inconsistent, with either a lack of solid pitching or absolutely no bats... and they just can't seem to put them both together.
Tonight's starter, Hiroki Kuroda, was the best pitcher in baseball in the month of July and appeared to be headed to a direct competition for the Cy Young Award with Max Scherzer and possibly a few others.
Since then, though, his ERA is over 5.00 and he just can't seem to give the Yankees a quality start. Kuroda's season ERA is 3.17, but that's highly deceiving based on what he did in June and July vs. what he's done since.
He's trying to avoid his first eight-start winless streak since 2008. Over his last seven starts, Kuroda is 0-5 with a miserable 6.37 ERA since the end of July and was beaten in his last start vs. lowly Toronto, 6-2. Horrible.
Matt Moore (15-4, 3.34 ERA) counters for Tampa Bay, and is hoping to keep his hot road record going. Moore, who has been up and down this year, is 8-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 14 road starts during the 2013 season, with the Rays taking 12 of them.
Take the Rays as your free play of the day.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Indians on the Run Line over the White Sox.
Cleveland can feel it. Cleveland can taste it. The Indians are right on the brink of a wild card berth next week, and they will not let the lowly White Sox stand in their way this Tuesday night at Progressive Field.
The Indians just swept a 4 game set off of the Houston Astros, and now they will look to sweep this 2 game set from a Chicago team they have won 15 of 17 off of this year.
Most recently, the Tribe picked up a 4 game sweep over the Pale Hose on the 12th through the 15th in the Windy City, Cleveland winning ALL 4 of those games, and winning them all by 2 runs or better.
Hector Santiago will oppose Ubaldo Jimenez.
Jimenez sports an ERA of just 1.65 over his last 10 starts, while Santiago enters with an 0-2 mark his last 3 starts, including a loss to the Indians his last trip to the bump, working 4 innings while allowing 6 hits and 3 runs to score.
Chicago is just playing out the string right now, and with Cleveland having so much on the line, I do not see the White Sox giving much resistance based on their season series mark versus the Indians this year.
Play the Tribe on the Run Line.
4♦ CLEVELAND -1.5
Brad Wilton
My Tuesday night free play winner will be for the Red Sox and the Rockies to get their hitting shoes on, as the Over comes through tonight at Coors Field.
Boston has clinched the A.L. East division title, and they are in good shape to clinch the best record in the junior circuit, so look for them to be swinging free-and-easy tonight when they face Rockies' hurler Tyler Chatwood.
John Lackey will go for Boston, as he will look to erase some suspect road starts since the All-Star break. Lackey has been lights-out at Fenway Park this season, but is just 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA in his 5 road starts since the break.
Chatwood just gave up 4 runs over 6 innings in his last assignment, and does sport a 4.34 ERA in his September starts this season.
Boston has been playing them low of late, going under the total in 5 of their last 6 games overall, but Colorado does counter those numbers with a 10-3-1 Over mark their last 14 games played at home.
I think the bats bop tonight.
Red Sox-Rockies to play Over the total.
3♦ BOSTON-COLORADO OVER
Brett Atkins
My free play for Monday night is on the L.A. Dodgers getting it done in San Francisco against their N.L. West-rival Giants, and I want you listing Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is back in the rotation and will pitch for the first time since Sept. 16.
Though manager Don Mattingly's recent comments would indicate he's basing everything around Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, make no mistake Ryu has been the No. 3 guy in this rotation and has been solid for the Dodgers.
Tonight he may be out to prove himself, and with a career 2.81 ERA against the Giants, I think his confidence will be on high.
Though it's a longshot, the Dodgers are still in line to get homefield advantage throughout the N.L. Playoffs. The Cardinals have a tough series with Washington on their hands, while the Braves have been slumping lately. Nothing would surprise me, so I'll look for the Dodgers to be at their best.
1♦ LOS ANGELES
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Miami Marlins getting it done over the Philadelphia Phillies, who have sunken back into slump-mode and look horrible during this five-game losing streak.
These two teams just met last week, and the Marlins closed the series out by snapping a seven-game win streak in the series, with a 4-3 upset win. Last night the Phils handed the ball to right-hander Roy Halladay, who I told you was suffering through a miserable campaign that has been marred by injuries and inconsistency. Then the Marlins won.
Tonight I am right back on the Fish, as I think they're going to continue Philadelphia's demise, and will have no trouble getting the win in this game. Point blank, the Phillies aren't exactly playing the best baseball right now.
The Phils have lost 21 of their last 28 on the road. I'm taking a shot here with Miami.
1♦ MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My free play for Tuesday night is on the Texas Rangers on the Run Line over the Houston Astros, and while I know we're having to lay money in this game by playing the run line, I still will do it in this Texas Tussle.
The Rangers have dominated this series, having won nine straight over the worst team in baseball. During the nine-game win streak, Texas has outscored the Astros, 64-24, an average final of 7.1-2.6.
Houston arrived in Arlington after losing four straight in Cleveland, then lost 12-0 last night. Tonight will be its sixth consecutive road game in as many days and their 12th game overall in as many days.
Texas, meanwhile, returned home after a seven-game tour that took them to Tampa Bay and Kansas City. This series couldn't have come at a better time, as the Rangers are struggling terribly this month and are flirting with danger of missing the playoffs. It was just last month the Rangers had a 78-56 record, led the AL West and had only two fewer victories than American Leading-leading Boston.
Now it's time to make one last surge, and it continues against a team the Rangers have dominated.
1♦ TEXAS -1.5