Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday September, 25

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. Philadelphia
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The Nationals' (93-60) Ross Detwiler (10-6, 3.10 ERA) is set to square off against the Phillies' (77-76) Cole Hamels (15-6, 3.05 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Detwiler is 2-0 in his last two starts, giving up just one run in each and a total of ten hits in that span. If he's had just one area of weakness all season, it's been his play on the road where he's just 2-4 with a 3.78 ERA.
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Hamels is coming off a 3-2 win over the Mets on Wednesday finishing with a season-high ten strikeouts. The veteran has gotten stronger as the season has worn on, and the Phillies have in fact won seven of his last eight starts. He's 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA over his last nine starts. Hamels owns a 64 to 11 strikeout to walk ratio over his last 64 2/3's frames of work. And note that he's been particularly effective in front of the home town crowd this year going 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA.
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Philadelphia is running out of time to make it back to the postseason, making tonight's gave a "must win" scenario:
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"Obviously, we're running out of games," Phillies' pitcher Cliff Lee said after losing 2-1 yesterday. "We really need to win every game. Today was big, but there's nothing we can do now.
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"Hopefully we can win (Tuesday), and basically we've almost got to win out and hope the guys ahead of us lose. We've put ourselves in a position we really don't want to be in, but there's nothing we can do about it now except for come and try to win (on Tuesday)."
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While the Nats have already punched their ticket to the post-season, they're still trying to wrap up the division title. However, a date against the desperate Phillies is NOT what the doctor ordered, as Philadelphia has in fact won the last three in the series, and six of the last seven.
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Hamels has dominated the Nationals throughout his career, going 12-5 with a very respectable 2.48 ERA.
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As good as Detwiler has been, I'm giving the nod to Hamel's on the mound. He's backed by a club with its back against the wall.
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In my opinion, there are overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side; consider laying what I deem to be a very reasonable price in this situation!

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay vs. Boston
Pick: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If the Rays hope to make the playoffs, they will have to do it on the road as they begin a series with the Red Sox on Tuesday night. Tampa Bay has the right pitcher on the mound in David Price. He is 18-5 with a 2.58 ERA in 29 starts this season. He will be facing the Red Sox for the fifth time this season. Price has allowed 10 runs and 26 hits in those games, but he will be facing a much weaker Boston lineup. The Red Sox may also be without Jacoby Ellsbury who is dealing with a "throwing issue." Boston is hitting .232 in their last ten games. The Tampa Bay bullpen has a 2.91 ERA in their last ten games and they’ve held hitters to a .212 average.
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Clay Buchholz loves facing the Rays; he held them scoreless over seven innings back on Thursday. He has a 3.62 ERA in five starts against Tampa Bay this season. In 11 of 13 career starts against Tampa Bay, Buchholz has given up 2 runs or less. Evan Longoria (6-27), Carlos Pena (5-30), Luke Scott (7-30) and Ben Zobrist (3-29) all have poor numbers against the Red Sox starter. The Rays are hitting .274 in their last 10 games, but that was because they were feasting on awful Toronto pitching. These two pitchers should be able to hold two mediocre offenses down so we’ll recommend playing this game Under the total.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers vs. San Diego
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The Dodgers playoff hopes are slipping away as they trail the Cardinals by three and a half games for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They can only hope for a St. Louis collapse down the stretch and with the Cardinals two final series' against the Nationals and Reds, it is possible. Los Angeles has to worry about itself though and that means a big series here and its next one against Colorado. The Dodgers are 3-3 on this roadtrip to remain right at .500 on the road for the season but they are 8-3 in their last 11 games as road favorites between -110 and -150. Josh Beckett was brought over from the Red Sox for the stretch run and he has not pitched bad at all. He has a 3.45 ERA in his five starts with two of those falling short of quality status by an inning total. He is coming off a great game at Washington where he allowed three runs on just five hits in 7.1 innings and he looks to ride that momentum into this game against a Padres team he has dominated throughout his career. He has not faced them since 2007 so while that past history is meaningless, the fact that the current players have not seen him is a big advantage. The Padres meanwhile are back home following a 2-4 roadtrip and while it will be another losing season in the books, it can be considered a success as San Diego has definitely exceeded expectations. Scoring runs is still an issue though especially at home where it has scored the fifth fewest amount of runs in baseball. Edinson Volquez gets the call for the Padres and it has been an up and down season as he has a 4.30 ERA through 30 starts with exactly half of those resulting in quality outings. He has pitched better at home but the Padres poor offense has hurt him too as they are averaging only 2.3 rpg. He has a 6.30 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers this season.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East and 11-4 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series. And for this Game 1 of a pennant race they have ace David Price (18-5, 2.58 ERA), and the Rays are 5-2 in Price's last 7 starts vs. the Red Sox. He continues to show why he is looking like a strong candidate for his first American League Cy Young award, as he leads the league in wins and ERA. The Rays are 35-16 in Price's last 51 road starts. Boston has packed in the season and the Red Sox are 9-22 in their last 31 during game 1 of a series and 6-21 against a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are also 1-5 in Buchholz's last 6 starts and 0-4 in his last four starts against the Rays. Play the Rays.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nationals vs PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both pitchers are on a red-hot run. Detwiler has allowed just 5 earned runs and 29 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 24 innings of work. The lefthander owns strong numbers in seven career outings against the Phillies, including six starts, and he's even better at tonight's venue than he is at home. Detwiler has posted a 2.95 ERA & 1.25 WHIP in four career outings at Citizens Bank park. He'll face a Phillies' lineup averaging just 2.84 rpg in 25 home outings against southpaws this season. Cole Hamels takes the bump for the home team. The lefty owns a 2.50 ERA over his last eight starts, and owns ridiculously hot numbers in 23 starts against the Nationals. I look for continued strong efforts from both pitchers and I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Nationals & Phillies on Tuesday.

Cajun SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Play ON any MLB favorite whose opponent is coming off a SU win in which they had five or more hits and left at least five runners on base. These favorites are 24-10 the last 34 and 11-2 the last 13.

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN DIEGO +105 over Los Angeles

The Dodgers took two out of three over Cincinnati this past weekend but don’t put an ounce of weight on that, as the Reds clinched a playoff spot on Thursday and then clinched the division title on Saturday. Prior to that, this Dodger team has not won a series since taking two of three from the Fish back on August 24-26.

Prior to his trade to Los Angeles, Josh Beckett had reeled off five poor starts in a row. His surface stats since coming over have been better but his beneath the surface stats reveal nothing has changed. With L.A., Beckett is 0-2 on the road with a 4.66 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. In 26 games started this season, he has six wins. Between the Red Sox and Dodgers, Beckett’s teams have dropped six of his last eight starts.

The Padres have been playing good ball the entire second half. They’ve won 11 of their past 17 games and when Edinson Volquez is on his game, he’s as tough to hit as almost any pitcher in the game. The Padres have won his last three starts at Petco, where he’s 5-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 3.46 xERA. Volquez occasionally gets into trouble because of a lack of control but he usually overcomes it at this park because of his strong groundball profile (50%) and strikeout rate of 166 K’s in 172 frames. As a pooch at home, the Padres and Volquez offer up all the value in this one.

Toronto +181 over BALTIMORE

There are certain pitchers in this league that should not be in this price range and Joe Saunders is one of them. Saunders has a 2.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in four September starts but we’re buying into that about as much as we’re buying into NFL replacement refs. Saunders is prime example of luck outperforming skill. xERA and batted ball profile show he's the same guy that hasn't delivered acceptable command or dominance for four years running. Saunders has a 6.75 ERA at Camden Yards with a 5.20 xERA. Sell the surface ERA because he can implode at any time.

The Blue Jays were forecast to have a strong year. One injury after another derailed them in mid-May and they have not recovered since. Aside from Jose Bautista, they’re relatively healthy again and they’re dangerous in the spoiler’s role. Aaron Laffey is a risky proposition but he’s not the one laying close to 2-1. His 49% groundball rate this season is encouraging enough to take that risk but more than that, this one is all about taking back a ridiculous tag against Joe Saunders.

Cleveland +183 over CHICAGO

Outside of a three-run shot by Adam Dunn in the eighth inning last night (his second dinger of the game), the White Sox have not been doing much hitting recently. Prior to yesterday, the Chisox had scored three runs or less in six straight. They’ve also lost five of their past six.

Francisco Liriano’s control problems have resurfaced. He’s walked 21 batters over his past 27 innings to raise his season total to 85 in 153 innings. When he’s not walking batters, he’s getting hit hard, suggesting that he has to be wild to have a chance. He's not a guy to be trusted right now, even vs. Tribe, in this price range.

Corey Kluber has quietly been an effective starter for Cleveland in this second half. His strikeout rate is solid, as are his control and groundball rate. His results (5.36 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) don't reflect the same optimism, but that's due to a 38% hit rate and exceptionally low 68% strand rate. Once those numbers normalize, Kluber’s surface stats will show a dramatic improvement. At this price and considering the foe, we’ll gladly take our chances that Kluber’s fortunes take a turn for the better.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees -1.5 (-120)
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The Yankees are rolling. They have won 8 of 9, and I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal against a Minnesota club they have owned. The Yanks have won 26 of their last 32 and 40 of their last 53 against the Twins.
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New York has the edge on the mound with Hughes, who enters in good form. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.95 over his last 3 starts. Each of those wins came by 2 runs or more. Hughes is also 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.16 in 4 career starts against the Twins. The Yankees have won these 4 by an average of 3.5 runs.
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The Yanks have backed Hughes with 5.6 runs per start this season, and I expect them to support him well here as Minnesota's Esmerling Vasquez has an ERA of 6.75. Take the Yanks on the run line.

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Dodgers -114
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The Dodgers haven't lost a series at Petco over the past two seasons, winning 10 of 15 games there. They are also 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Beckett is 5-1 lifetime against the Padres with a 2.16 ERA. Volquez is 1-2 against the Dodgers with an ERA of 5.00. Bet LA.

Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles -187
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The Orioles have won 7 of 9 while the Blue Jays have lost 7 of 8. Toronto's Aaron Laffey is only averaging 2.93 strikeouts per start. This is significant because Baltimore is 8-0 this season in games against a starting pitcher who strikes out 3 or less batters per start. It has won these games by an average score of 6.8 to 3.6. The O's have won 6 of their last 7 at home against the Jays. Take Baltimore.

MLB Predictions

Cardinals / Astros Under 8

Like mentioned above the Cardinals took the first game of this series 6-1 last night. Tonight's starters will be Jaime Garcia and Lucas Harrell. Garcia is 5-7 on the season with a 4.25 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .294 opponents batting average. He does struggle on the road, but in his last road outing he went 6 innings giving up just 1 earned run and given that the Cardinals need wins to lock up a playoff spot and Houston is struggling to score runs I think he does just fine tonight. Harrell is 10-10 for the Astros with a 3.89 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .255 opponents batting average. At home this season he is a solid 6-2 with a 2.26 ERA. Garcia faced the Astros last week in a 5-4 victory, while Harrell faced the Cardinals in the same series but lost 5-0 (played in St Louis). In their 4 recent meetings this month the UNDER is 3-1 with totals of 7, 9, 5, and 5. Take note that the UNDER is 5-2 in the Astros last 7 overall, 10-2-1 in their last 13 divisional games, and 3-1-2 in Harrell's last 6 starts overall. Houston has scored just 18 runs over their last 7 games (2.57 per game). With Harrell pitching great at home and the Astros struggling to put up runs overall I think we have a low scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER.

Atlanta Braves -1.5 -120

Atlanta enters this game with 22 more wins on the season than the Marlins at 88-65, and they are 43-32 at home compared to the Marlins who are 31-47 on the road. Miami has lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7, scoring just 7 runs over their last 4 games (1.75 runs per game). Atlanta has won two straight and 7 of 9, which includes taking two of three in Miami last week. Nathan Eovaldi is on the mound for Miami and he is 4-12 on the season with a 4.36 ERA. Kris Medlen is taking the rubber for Atlanta and he has been exceptional going 9-1 with a 1.51 on the season, and a stellar 8-0 with a 0.76 over his 10 starts. Over his last two outings he has pitched a combined 15 innings with just 1 earned run against and 19 strikeouts. Note that the Marlins are 19-40 in their last 59 vs a team with a winning record, 9-24 in their last 33 vs divisional opponents, and 0-6 in their last 6 road games. The Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 following a win, 37-14 in their last 52 vs divisional opponents and 20-8 in their last 28 home games. The Braves are also 24-2 in Medlen's last 26 starts and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs Miami. Take the Braves on the run line tonight.

Jack Jones

Washington Nationals +139

The Washington Nationals (93-60) are trying to clinch the NL East division and finish with the best record in the National League to earn home-field advantage. The Philadelphia Phillies (77-76) have done a good job of fighting back to at least be in the discussion for the NL wild-card race.

However, Philadelphia trails St. Louis by 5.5 games for the final wild-card spot. They are also trailing the Dodgers and Brewers, and they're tied with the Diamondbacks at 5.5 back. Realistically, the Phillies almost certainly have no chance to come back with only nine games remaining even if they go 9-0.

Washington starter Ross Detwiler is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 10-6 with a 3.10 ERA this season, including 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Detwiler is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against Philly, pitching 14 1/3 shutout innings while allowing only nine base runners.

Detwiler is 10-2 against the money line against division opponents this season. The Phillies are 2-8 in Cole Hamels' last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Washington is 11-1 in Detwiler's last 12 starts vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season. Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

Rocketman

St Louis at Houston
Play St Louis

The 83-71 Cardinals are in Houston for game 2 of their 3 Game series with the 50-104 Astros on Tuesday. 10-10 Harrell gets the call for Houston while 5-7 Garcia gets the nod for St Louis. Harrell tosses his first pitch with an ERA of 3.89 giving up 79 earned runs in 182.7 innings of work while allowing 71 walks with 132 K's. On the other side of the grass, Garcia starts his Day off with an ERA of 4.25 giving up 51 earned runs in 108 innings pitched allowing 29 walks with 87 K's. The Astros are 1-8 in their last 9 Home Games against Left Handed Starters and 11-42 in their last 53 games against teams with winning records. Houston is also 18-61 in their last 79 Overall Games. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games against National League Central Squads and 7-1 in Their last 8 Overall Games. 4-1 in their last 5 Road Games and 4-1 in their last 5 games against Right Handed Starters. The Cardinals look to slide into the final NL Wildcard Spot. They will be one step closer after another win over the Astros. St Louis and Garcia win this game easily Tonight!