Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 28,2010

Matt Fargo

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners

We used the Red Sox and Clay Buchholz last night and one of the reasons was Buchholz trying to go after the ERA title. He succeeded as he pitched a gem to lower his ERA to 2.33 on the season, 0.02 behind the current ERA leader Felix Hernandez. We are backing Hernandez tonight for the very same reason. The Mariners won last night in Texas to make it two straight wins on the road and they can build onto that momentum to try and end the season on a high. The Rangers had their three-game winning streak snapped last night but winning is far from a priority here as they try and get ready for the playoffs beginning next week. Texas had won five straight at home prior to Monday’s loss and right now it is about resting players to get them fresh for the postseason. Cliff Lee was supposed to start tonight but he was pushed to Friday to put him a normal schedule heading into the playoffs where he will get the start in Game One of the ALDS. That gives the Mariners a huge edge in the matchup tonight. Hernandez has a 2.31 ERA heading into tonight after two straight quality starts which came after a poor effort against the Angels prior to those. He has now allowed one run or less in eight of his last nine starts which has lowered his ERA from 2.84 to its current number. One of his most recent starts came against Texas where he allowed only one run in eight innings which happened to be the eighth quality outing in his last 10 starts against the Rangers. Scott Feldman will pick up a spot start Tuesday as Texas aligns its' rotation for the postseason as mentioned. He is making only his second start since being moved to the bullpen at the end of July and after being named the Opening Day starter, it shows the tough season he has had. He has a 5.45 ERA overall including a 5.55 ERA in 21 starts. Before being moved to the pen, quality starts were few and far between as he has only one quality performance in his last seven. Seattle is 25-11 in Hernandez’ 36 starts over the last two years when playing a team with a winning record while Texas is 3-13 in Feldman’s last 16 home starts in the second half of the season over the last two years. 3* Seattle Mariners

Frank Jordan

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees had Phil Hughes pitch Sunday Night against the Red Sox cause they needed a win to move ever so close to a playoff berth. Now they are sending CC to the hill tonight to lock that up and hopefully get some help once more from Baltimore to move back ahead in the AL East. Right now it seems Girardi is managing not to lose rather than to win. Like the players he needs to tune it up for the post season and get his head in the right mind set. Tonight he has one of those moves going with CC on the hill, look for the big fella to come through and we will lock up a playoff berth and hopefully get on a roll heading into post season.

BIG AL

Mariners @ Rangers
PICK: Under 8

Without a doubt, the Rodney Dangerfield pitching award presented to the starter with the least amount of respect from his hitters goes to Seattle righthander Felix Hernandez for 2010. Hernandez has the best ERA of any active starter in the Majors at 2.31 (Josh Johnson still qualifies for being the leader at 2.30 but he was shut down a while ago) however he is barely keeping his head above water in the W/L department with a 12-12 record. He went into hitter-happy Toronto in his last start, and faced the team with more homers than any other in baseball, and he pretty much shut them down completely over eight innings. But his team couldn't score and he lost 1-0. Tonight could be more of the same. Hernandez may very well dominate these Rangers in the same manner as they have clinched their Division title and will no doubt be resting some - if not many - of their regulars setting up another possible gem by the man they call "King Felix". But he shouldn't expect anything to change on his team's offensive side of the ball as the Mariner bats have pretty much been put away and the lineup has gone into hibernation a few weeks before the winter weather sets in. Add to that the fact that Texas righthander Scott Feldman has a 4-2 record and 2.92 ERA in just under 62 career innings against Seattle and it could be another frustrating night for one of the best pitchers in baseball. Take the 'under.'

Bryan Leonard

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners

With Texas clinching the division and securing a playoff spot we look for the Rangers to rest their starters sporadically down the stretch, especially against the hard throwing Felix Hernandez. There is no better time than today to let the backups and September call-ups get some action. After a season with Hamilton, Cruz and Kinsler missing big chunks of time we expect Ron Washington to be very cautious in the final week.

Hernandez is looking to end the season the way he has pitched his last nine starts. That's allowing seven earned runs in those outings with only one start of more than a single earned run allowed. He's been simply unhittable. During this nine start streak Hernandez has held every opponent to six hits or less. He ends the season on Tuesday with another outstanding performance as the Mariners look to bring up a minor leaguer to pitch the season finale.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Take: Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are in a pennant race, the Dodgers just walking down the stretch of a disappointing, lost season. Hiroki Kuroda has a losing record for the season and has struggled against the Rockies this year, at 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA against them. This is nothing new, as in his career he is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA against Colorado. An excellent spot for the home team, Play the Rockies.

EZWINNERS

New York Yankees -185

Kyle Drabek will be making his third start for the Blue Jays in this game. Drabek it Toronto's top pitching prospect and I expect him to take some lumps in this game. In Drabek's first two big league starts he has faced two of the weaker lineups in the American League in the Mariners and Orioles. In those games Drabek has allowed six runs and thirteen hits over eleven innings of work and tonight the task gets very difficult. The Yankees do not have an easy out in their lineup and to make matters worse, Drabek has a very little margin for error with CC Sabathia on the mound for New York. Sabathia has already won twenty games this season and is in the Cy Young Award conversation. I expect another solid effort from him here against the Blue Jays. Toronto is only 4-10 in their last fourteen home games against a left handed starter. Play on New York.

Tom Freese

Athletics at Angels
Prediction: Under

Angels starter Dan Haren has allowed 7 runs total in his last 6 starts. Los Angeles is 19-6-3 UNDER their last 28 games and they are 18-7-2 UNDER their last 27 home gemes. The Halos are 56-26-4 UNDER when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game. Oakland starter Dallas Braden is off a shutout win in his last start. The A's are 18-7-2 UNDER their last 27 road games vs. righty starters and they are 39-18 UNDER with Braden in his last 57 starts on grass. Oakland is 19-4 UNDER their last 23 games vs. AL West teams and they are 33-15-5 UNDER vs. a team that scored 5 or more runs in their last game.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on LA Angels -123

I'll back the Halos at home tonight with Dan Haren on the hill. Haren is 2-0 on the money line in 2 starts against his former club, and he enters tonight's matchup in top form. He is sporting an ERA of only 1.32 over his last 6 starts. The A's Dallas Braden has lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and he has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of those outings. Plus, he hasn't had much luck against the Angels. Braden is just 2-6 on the money line in his career against LA with an ERA of 4.82. He has lost 5 of his last 6 against the Angels while giving up 26 runs in just 36 2/3 innings. Oakland is a poor 18-38 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, and I'll continue to fade the A's in the road dog role here.

Steve Merril

Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play Under 8½

New York is certainly limping into the playoffs as they try to clinch a playoff spot. They still need to win or get a Red Sox loss in order for that to happen. Because of this, the team will send CC Sabathia to the mound tonight to get the job done. The lefty is 20-7 with a 3.26 ERA this season. Somehow, he has yet to face Toronto this season and he only pitched against them once last season. The lefty gave up two runs and five hits in eight innings of work in that start last May. John Buck (8-39), Vernon Wells (6-31), Aaron Hill (3-19), John McDonald (3-15), Jose Molina (0-11), Yunel Escobar (2-9), Jose Bautista (0-8), Lyle Overbay (1-6), Fred Lewis (1-4), and Adam Lind (0-2) all have poor numbers against Sabathia. Toronto is hitting just .215 against southpaws this season going Under the total in 18 of 33 games against them. They are also hitting right around .215 in their last eight games despite winning six of them. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA right around 3.00 on the road this season.

Toronto’s Kyle Drabek makes his third career start on Tuesday night. The righty is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA so far after giving up three runs to the Mariners and Orioles in those starts. Drabek will face a Yankees team that has lost five of their last six games. Offensively, they are struggling right now, and not producing runs at the level they are capable of. They've scored just 25 runs in their last six games. New York has had struggles this season and in the past with pitchers that they've never faced before, so Drabek should be able to limit the Yankees production in this game. We expect little offense tonight between the Yankees and Blue Jays so we’ll recommend a play on the Under.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -108

I know the Twins are without some key bats, but I expect the AL Central champs to rise to the occasion tonight to snap a 4-game losing streak. The Twins have won 12 of 16 games against KC this season, and they are in good hands with Blackburn on the hill tonight. The Minnesota righty is carrying an ERA of just 1.64 over his last 3 starts, and the Twins have won his last 4 starts against the Royals. Plus, the Twins are an impressive 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. the American League Central. O'Sullivan gets the ball for KC after getting absolutely shelled in a loss to Minnesota earlier this month. He is 2-6 with an ERA of 6.93 on the season and 0-2 with an ERA of 7.97 at home. His ERA is an even higher 8.31 over his last 3 starts. The Royals are an ice cold 21-46 in their last 67 games following a win, 17-36 in their last 53 games as an underdog and 3-7 in O'Sullivan's last 10 starts as an underdog. Take Minnesota at a nice price tonight.

Ben Burns

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays lost yesterday's opener and have now dropped two straight. They should have a significant advantage this evening though and I expect them to bounce back with an important victory.

Bergesen has a 4.65 ERA in 12 road starts. The Orioles are 4-8 in those games. Price is 8-2 (Rays are 11-4) at home.

Bergesen is 0-3 with a terrible 9.00 ERA and 2.214 WHIP in three starts vs. the Rays. Price is 3-0 (team is 4-0) with a superb 2.59 ERA vs. the Orioles. His only start against Baltimore this season was also against Bergesen. Price allowed one run in seven innings. Bergesen allowed eight runs (5 earned) in three innings. Tampa Bay won 9-1.

Yes, the price is a little on the "steep" side. However, it's come down a bit from its opener and keep in mind that the Rays are a lucrative 10-1 (+7.7) the last 11 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Don't mind paying for a play which should have a strong shot at winning? Consider laying the wood.

Larry Ness

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia clinched its fourth straight NL East title last night with an 8-0 win over the Nationals. Halladay earned his 21st win with his fourth shutout and ninth complete game, all of which are MLB highs in 2010. Roy Oswalt takes the mound tonight. He joined the Philly staff back in late July and I guess it's fair to say it's "been a good thing" for the Phillies. Oswalt, Halladay and Hamels are a combined 20-7 in 32 starts since the trade with the Phillies going 24-8 in those games. Oswalt struggled in his first start with Philadelphia but is 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA over his last 10, as the Phillies have won each outing. He's up against the washed-up Jason Marquis in this one, who has gone 2-9 with a 7.18 ERA in 12 starts with the Nats (team is 3-9). Marquis is 0-5 in six home starts (team is 1-5), posting a 7.47 ERA. Worse yet for this game, he's 0-4 against Philadelphia this year, compiling a 12.51 ERA! Now get this. The Phillies are favored by about minus-$1.20. That's because the team just clinched the NL East. What would the line had been if that were not the case? How about like last night, when Hallaaday was more than a $2.00 favorite. Talk about value!

Karl Garrett

Florida at ATLANTA (-180)

Tonight's comp play is to take Florida and Atlanta to stay under the posted total.

Last night's game went 11 innings, and saw just 3 runs combined as the Marlins and Braves stayed under for the third time in the last 4 meetings.

Florida has now been under the total in 4 in a row, and 6 of the last 8, while Atlanta has been low in 3 straight, and are on an overall 6-2-1 under run their last 9 games.

Sanchez and Hudson have had some rough trips to the mound recently, but for the year Sanchez' ERA is 3.60 while Hudson's is under 3.

Have to go low in the Marlins-Braves this evening.

2♦ UNDER

Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Dodgers (+120) at COLORADO

For my comp play, the Dodgers more or less ended the Rockies’ season on Monday night when Ted Lilly went out and beat Ubaldo Jimenez. Now a deflated Colorado squad will not be interested in today’s contest against Los Angeles and right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (11-13, 3.27 ERA).

Kuroda has been very good lately with a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts. He has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine outings, including an eight-inning effort against the Padres on Thursday when he allowed just one run on five hits in a 3-1 victory. This will be the fifth time he’s seen the Rockies this season with the last two being very good outings, allowing three earned runs or less.

Lefty Jeff Francis (4-6, 4.97 ERA) is on the mound for the Rockies, but he’s 0-2 in his last three starts with a 4.97 ERA. He gave up three runs in 3.2 innings of a 10-9 loss to the D’Backs last time out and gave up two runs in three innings in his last home start. The Dodgers beat him up in their only game against him this season, getting five runs on five hits in 5.1 innings in Colorado back on May 28, winning 5-4.

Colorado is on slides of 1-6 against the N.L. West, 1-5 as a favorite, 0-5 against right-handed starters and 2-7 on Tuesdays. On the other side, the Dodgers are 5-2 when Kuroda pitches Game 2, 7-1 when he pitches on Tuesday and 35-17 as a team on Tuesdays.

Neither one of these teams is going anywhere in the postseason, but I think the surge the Rockies put on in early September has drained them down the stretch. Look for the Dodgers and Kuroda to steal this one in Colorado. Grab the plus money and play Los Angeles.

2♦ L.A. DODGERS

Derek Mancini

LA Dodgers at COLORADO (-135)

Now 13-8 Free Play run, and tonight I'm looking at the Rockies to finally get back on track. Yes, they've been struggling. And yes, that includes tonight's starter, Jeff Francis (4-6, 4.71 ERA). But before you go unloading on the Dodgers, consider the line on this contest.

Seems a little fishy to me that a struggling Rockies team starting a struggling Francis is favored by this much in this spot. Obviously oddsmakers are telling us something, and that something is they expect a strong effort from Colorado in this one. They're also pointing away from Hiroki Kuroda (11-13, 3.27 ERA), who has a history of problems against the Rockies, having never beaten them, going 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA in 7 career starts.

Based on Kuroda's numbers, I can safely say I expect the Rockies to get it done like they usually do - at the plate. With Tulowitzki red-hot, and the ever dangerous Carlos Gonzalez lurking, the Rockies have more than enough firepower. Remember, they hit righties extremely well at Coors, batting .294 on the season in that spot. Factor in a small edge in the bullpen, and the you've got the recipe for a solid Rockies win. Colorado (Francis) over the LA Dodgers (Kuroda) Tuesday.

3♦ COLORADO

Chuck O'Brien

L.A. Dodgers at COLORADO (-135)

For Tuesday’s complimentary selection, I’ll take the Dodgers-Rockies game OVER the total.

Nobody has been more critical of the Dodgers’ offense than me – and rightfully critical as L.A. has scored two runs or fewer 35 of 69 games since the All-Star break (and rarely have the Dodgers cracked the four-run barrier during this stretch). That said, L.A. has always had success hitting at Coors Field, and tonight the offense goes up against veteran lefty Jeff Francis, who in his last two starts has pitched three and 3 1/3 innings, allowing five runs in losses to San Diego (6-4) and Arizona (10-9).

For the season, Francis has a 4.71 ERA, and the over has cashed in eight of his last 10 starts overall and six straight at home have gone high. And in one game against L.A. this year, he allowed five runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda has pitched very well down the stretch, giving up just 17 earned runs in his last nine starts over 63 2/3 innings (2.40 ERA). But he has never had success against the Rockies, going 0-4 with a 6.29 ERA in seven starts (five of the seven went over the total), including two games in Colorado where he’s allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in 10 innings. In fact, the Rockies bat .396 against Kuroda at Coors Field.

The “over” had cashed in four straight meetings between these teams and five of six prior to last night’s 3-1 Dodgers wins, and for Colorado the “over” is on runs of 9-4 overall and 19-10-1 at home.

3♦ OVER

Stephen Nover,

Chicago (+150) at SAN DIEGO

I'm taking the underdog Chicago Cubs for my free selection.

Did you know the Cubs have the second-best record in baseball since August 23? They do at 20-11, behind just the Phillies. That's when interim manager Mike Quade took over for Chicago.

The Cubs have been doing most of their damage on the road, winning 16 of their last 19 away contests. They are 12-4 the past 16 times they've been an underdog.

The Cubs shut out the Padres on Monday night as underdogs behind Carlos Zambrano. Now Ryan Dempster goes. He got shelled in his last start, but prior to that Dempster had given up just three earned runs in his past three starts spanning 18 2/3 innings. He had 18 strikeouts in those 18 2/3 innings.

San Diego is having problems scoring runs again. The Padres are averaging only 2.6 runs in their past eight games.

The Padres are going with 22-year-old Matt Latos, who has thrown a career-high 173 innings after pitching just 50 last season. Latos clearly has hit the wall losing his last three starts while posting a hideous 13.94 ERA during this span.

San Diego's bullpen hasn't been as good either, largely due to overwork as the long season winds down. Padres starters have averaged just 5 2/3 innings during the last six games.

3♦ CHICAGO

Scott Delaney

N.Y. Yankees at TORONTO (+190)

Now, about the Blue Jays ...

It sounds funny to say this, but the wild-card leading Yankees are 5 1/2 games in front of the Red Sox and are chasing the Rays in the American League East.

What seemed like a runaway freight train not too long ago, the Yankees can clinch a playoff berth with one more win or a Boston loss.

Tonight, once again, they'll have to hope for a Boston loss, because I don't see the Yankees winning this one.

I realize they're handing the ball to C.C. Sabathia, the staff ace, but he comes in after a sub-par performance, and I'm thinking the hard-hitting Blue Jays would love to deliver several of his heaters out toward the Marriott, located in right-center field of the Rogers Centre.

Sabathia, who is is 3-2 with a 4.32 ERA in his last six starts, was pelted for a season-high seven runs and 10 hits over 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss last Thursday at home against the Rays.

So with the power southpaw struggling of late, and the Yankees losing 14 of 21 since winning a season-high eight straight, I like the value with the home underdog here.

5♦ TORONTO

Joel Tyson

Seattle (-120) at TEXAS

Free play winner for Tuesday night is to go with Cy Young candidate Felix Hernandez to shut down a Texas team that is just waiting for the playoffs to begin next week.

The last time Hernandez faced the Rangers, he worked 8 innings of 1 run ball for the win. Hernandez has allowed just 1 earned run or less in 8 of his last 9 starts.

Seattle won last night, as they now have beaten Texas in the last pair of meetings, and 3 of the last 4 overall.

Scott Feldman will come out of the bullpen to get this start, and it is clear to me the Rangers are just playing out the string of the regular season.

Go with the M's and Hernandez in this one.

5♦ SEATTLE

Chris Jordan

Minnesota at KANSAS CITY (+110)

Now on a 28-12 run with MLB free plays, and today I am rolling with the Royals over the Twins in American League Central play.

It's no surprise the Twins have lost four in a row, as they've clinched the division, and are probably looking toward next week and how their rotation sizes up for the American League Divisional Series.

The Royals are catching the Twins at the right time, in this losing streak, and with Nick Blackburn taking the ball for them tonight. He has record and a 9.64 ERA in two starts against Kansas City this season.

I know the Twins lead the season series 12-4, but with Kansas City playing at home, and Minnesota seemingly lost its edge for now, I'll play the Royals in this one.

1♦ KANSAS CITY

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +1.50 over SAN DIEGO

Matt Latos is really having a tough time of late and it must be attributed to the fact that he’s fatigued and running strictly on fumes. Last season he threw just 51 IP at SD and just 84 IP above A-ball. He’s now up to 173 IP and counting. Latos has allowed 16 runs over his last three starts covering just 10.1 frames. It’s also worth noting that he faced San Fran, St, Louis and the Dodgers over that stretch. In his last start vs the feeble Dodgers he was laboring the whole time he was out there. You could see he was fighting it right from the start and he ended up throwing five frames and allowing six hits and three runs. In four September starts, Latos is 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA and a BAA of .303. These teams that are out of it are jacked right up to beat these teams that are in it. Wins for these contenders are getting tougher and tougher to come by. The Cubbies came in here last night and took the opener 1-0. Meanwhile, Ryan Dempster probably has less bad outings than any pitcher in the business in the past three years. This guy is tough as shoe leather when he’s on his game. Dempster's name will never be mentioned among the NL's elite starters, but he deserves way more respect than he sometimes gets. Dempster is on track for another year of 200-plus IP, 170-plus Ks and ERA below 4.00 and his xERA of 3.88 confirms that he’s no fluke and never has been. This “W” is going to be a very tough one for the Padres to put in the column. Will Venable, one of the game's hottest hitters with a current 24-for-52 stretch, was scratched from Monday's lineup with back soreness. Matt Stairs replaced him. Definite overlay. Play: Chicago +1.50 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +1.72 over ATLANTA

The Braves are hanging in there by the skin of their teeth and things sure don’t get any easier here. Atlanta is seeing BB’s right now and in fact, over its last seven games they’ve scored a total of 16 runs. Ok, we’ll excuse them for their struggles in Philly when they faced Halliday, Oswalt and Hamels but over its last four games against Jordan Zimmerman, Yuneski Maya, Livan Hernandez and Alejandro Sanabia, they scored 11 runs. In a desperate effort to reach the post season, the Braves are starting both Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe on three days rest. Hudson has surprised with a sub-3.00 ERA this season, best among Atlanta starters, but has struggled down the stretch with a 6.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in September. He’s been victimized by the long ball this month with an inflated 37% hr/f and 2.0 hr/9 in his five September starts, spanning 31 IP. He’s already thrown an eye-popping 215 innings this season and he, too, could be suffering from fatigue. These pressure-filled September innings are taking its toll on Hudson and again, he’ll pitch on just three days rest here. Annibal Sanchez has filthy stuff. He’s still prone to periodic control issues but when he’s throwing strikes he’s as tough as they come. He’s laboring too in September but the big difference is that he’s not the one laying –1.85. Sanchez skills are equal to or better than Hudson’s and he’s 10 years his junior. Another overlay on a live squad playing the spoiler role. Play: Florida +1.72 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit –1½ +1.26 over CLEVELAND

Mitch Talbot is a pitcher in trouble. This is a guy that has had moderate success this season but don’t be fooled. The league has since figured him out and he’s not getting away with walking folks like he was earlier in the year. In fact, in seven of his last eight starts, he walked more batters than he struck out. Over that stretch of eight games he’s walked 22 and struck out 17. At home this year, Talbot has allowed 102 hits in 82 frames for a BAA of .307 and an ERA of 6.31. He’s made three starts vs the Tigers this season and all they’ve done is hit .310 off him and scored nine times in 15 IP. Incidentally, in those three starts vs the Tigers he walked 11 and struck out 9. In addition, the Detroit offense is clicking in September, leading the AL in scoring while averaging over six runs per contest. By contrast, the Indians offense has been held to three or less runs in 12 games already this month, while being shutout four times. Now they’ll have to face Max Scherzer and his ferocious desire to win. No pitcher in baseball has been better than Scherzer in the 2H. His 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP tells you all you need to know. This guy is the straight goods and chances are strong he’ll dominate this weak hitting foe. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).