John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
3* graded play on Toronto as they host the Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game. This race could still get quite interesting with Boston still playing hard despite being long shots. If somehow they can get this down to three games the Red Sox finish with three against the Yankees. Sabathia is hardly an ace right now and has allowed five or more earned runs in three of his last six starts. In his last start he allowed seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against Tampa Bay. Yankees bullpen is not doing all that well either posting a 4.78 ERA and a 1.562 WHIP over their last seven games. Toronto bullpen is pitching well posting a 3.55 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP allowing just five walks and striking out 25 and are 5 for 5 in save opportunities over the past seven games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-15 making 24.8 units since 2005. Play against road teams with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start and with a tired bullpen after three straight games throwing 4+ innings. Drabek is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and came to Toronto through the Halladay to Philadelphia dealings. He has enormous potential as a number two starter or even a possible ace. Take Toronto.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies want to continue the momentum they've gained over the last month right into the postseason. Philly clinched the NL East and home-field advantage last night, and I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal with only five games remaining in the regular season. A night after Roy Halladay threw a 2-hitter in an 8-0 victory over Washington, Roy Oswalt takes the mound tonight with intentions on matching or exceeding that effort. Halladay, Oswalt and Cole Hamels have all been pushing each other, which has helped each starter stay focused down the stretch.
"I'm trying to push them as much as possible and they're doing that off me," Oswalt said. "Anytime you feed off each other, it helps down the stretch." Oswalt is 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last nine starts. Two of those victories have come against the Nationals, as he's yielded one run in 13 innings while striking out 15 Washington batters in those starts. The right-hander was stellar again Wednesday, throwing seven innings and allowing only one hit in a 1-0 victory over Atlanta. Betting against Jason Marquis has been a very profitable move all year, as the righty is just 2-9 with a 7.18 ERA this season. He's lost all four of his starts against Philadelphia this year - all to Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt - compiling a 12.51 ERA in those outings. Take the Phillies Tuesday.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago Cubs +142
Despite a lost season, the Cubs have played very well since Lou Piniella stepped down. They have been especially pesky on the road. Chicago is now 15-3 in their last 18 road games. The Cubs are 5-0 in Ryan Dempster's last 5 road starts, and 6-1 in Dempster's last 7 starts as a road underdog. Dempster is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 road starts, pitching 21 shutout innings to improve to 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.215 WHIP on the road this season. Mat Latos was dominant through the first four months, but the young righty is wearing down and perhaps feeling the pressure of September baseball. Latos is 0-3 with a 13.94 ERA and 2.614 WHIP in his last 3 starts, yielding 16 earned runs and 31 base runners in 10.1 innings. Take the Cubs on the Money Line.
Doug Upstone
Florida Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves were passed by Philadelphia in the NL East like they were standing still and have been officially eliminated from winning the division. Atlanta now places it full attention trying to secure Wild Card slot for next week’s playoffs. The Braves have the same number of losses as the San Diego and is playing all its remaining games at home.
Atlanta will start Tim Hudson (16-9, 2.80 ERA) after last night’s 2-1 thriller over Florida and he’ll be opposed by Anibal Sanchez (12-11, 3.60). The Marlins are trying to be division spoilers and will need Sanchez to have a strong outing since the bullpen has been taxed in throwing 10 2/3 innings the past two days.
For Tuesday, we look to Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more with a starting NL pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, with a tired bullpen having thrown nine or more innings over the last two games. Since 1997, these dogs are 16-60.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Angels -123
I'll back the Halos at home tonight with Dan Haren on the hill. Haren is 2-0 on the money line in 2 starts against his former club, and he enters tonight's matchup in top form. He is sporting an ERA of only 1.32 over his last 6 starts. The A's Dallas Braden has lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and he has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of those outings. Plus, he hasn't had much luck against the Angels. Braden is just 2-6 on the money line in his career against LA with an ERA of 4.82. He has lost 5 of his last 6 against the Angels while giving up 26 runs in just 36 2/3 innings. Oakland is a poor 18-38 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, and I'll continue to fade the A's in the road dog role here.
Info Plays
3* on San Francisco Giants -217
Reasons the Giants win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (ARIZONA) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 75-11 ML System hitting 87.2% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) No one's been hotter this month than Jonathan Sanchez (11-9, 3.16 ERA), who has posted a major league-low 0.73 ERA in four September outings and will start San Francisco's season finale against the Padres on Sunday. Rodrigo Lopez is 0-2 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.777 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco. He has allowed 14 earned runs in 16 innings in three starts vs. the Giants this season alone. Bet San Francisco at home.
Hollywood Sports
Brewers at Mets
Play: Under
Randy Wolf sports a 13-11 record along with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season but he has been spectacular of late given his 0.78 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts. Wolf loves pitching against the Mets as indicated by his 3.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .240 opponent's batting average over 194 innings of career work. The Brewers have played five straight road games Under the Total with Wolf on the hill. He faces off against Mike Pelfrey who is 15-9 record, 3.75 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. Pelfrey is also closing his season very well as he enjoys a 2.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his last three starts. At home, Pelfrey has a 2.87 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .254 opponent's batting average. And the Under is 4-0-1 in the Mets' last five games at home with Pelfrey. He should fare well against a Brewers team that has played eleven of their last thirteen games Under the Total against a right-handed starter.
LT Profits
Marlins / Braves Under 7½
The Atlanta Braves defeated the Florida Marlins 2-1 here in Atlanta last night, and we are looking for a similarly low scoring affair tonight.
The bookmakers have installed a total of 7½ on this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -130.
Granted, neither Tim Hudson nor Anibal Sanchez is in good current form, but the Atlanta offense can make any pitcher look good these days and Hudson is a prime candidate to bounce back based on his track record, so we expect both starters to be fine tonight.
Even with just one Quality Start in his last four outings, Hudson is still 16-9 with a 2.80 ERA and an excellent 1.15 WHIP in 215.2 innings over the entire season. Hudson has also allowed three runs or less in all three of his starts vs. Florida this year, and his last start against the Marlins on August 28 was one of his best of the season, as he allowed one run on six hits with 13 strikeouts against just one walk in seven innings.
Sanchez is 12-11 for the Fish, but with a good 3.60 ERA in 30 starts covering 182 1 innings. He has two Quality Starts in three outings vs. Atlanta in 2010, allowing exactly two runs and five its in each quality outing, and he is now facing a Braves lineup that is batting a putrid .215 over the last 10 games, averaging just 3,20 runs per game in the process.
With the Marlins only averaging 3.30 runs themselves in their last 10 games, look for another ‘under’ this evening.