Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 3

Wunderdog

Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +129

This is the second straight season that the Los Angeles Angels have disappointed and under performed their talent. Their playoffs hopes have long been dashed, but they are playing loose and free, and doing their best to spoil the playoffs ambitions of their opponents. The Angels have won eight of nine, while the Tampa Bay Rays appear to be feeling the pressure of teams breathing down their backs in a jammed playoffs race in the AL. The Rays have lost eight of nine games as their offense has been in a deep freeze. Tampa Bay has generated a meager 7 runs in their last five games at 1.4 runs per contest, and you simply can't win on 1 run per game. They have also come up short in six straight road games. The Angels are feeling it right now, and are a bargain here as a home dog. Go with the Halos.

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs -155

The Cubs are 4-1 in Edwin Jackson's last five home starts. Jackson has a 3.89 ERA in his last three starts, compared to a 5.29 ERA from Miami's Tom Koehler. Miami is 3-7 in Koehler's 10 starts on the road this season. This matchup also falls into a system to play against road underdogs batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games when they are a blow average hitting team and facing a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 5.20 in the National League. This system is 79-33 (71%) over the last five seasons.

The Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game at home while Miami is scoring a mere 2.9 runs per game on the road. When you look at how Miami has performed recently the advantage for Chicago is even greater. The Marlins are batting .203 as a team and scoring just 2.7 runs per game, with a 2-5 record in their past seven games. Both of these teams are bad, but Miami is definitely worse than Chicago. With the offense and starting pitcher matchups in favor of the Cubs, Chicago is an easy call in this game.

Doug Upstone

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

For Tuesday, Play On home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like Cincinnati, batting .333 or better over their last three games, playing in September. Over the past four years, this baseball system is 36.7, 83.7 percent. The average margin of victory is 2.7 runs a game.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers fit a road warrior system that is 22-8 and has a perfect subset. We wan to play on road favorites off a road favored win at -200 or higher if they scored 10 or more runs in the win and the opponent lost as a home dog by 5 or more runs and scored 5+ runs on 10+ hits, The Dodgers are 4-0 the last 3 seasons as a road favorite after scoring 10 or more runs in a road game. They have also won 11 of 13 as a road favorite this season from -100 to 125. In games against losing teams they have won 28 of 35. They have Ricky Nolasco on the mound and he has won 7 of his last 8 on the road and has a 0.82 era over his last 3 starts. J. Chacin makes the start for the Rockies and he has lost 7 of his last 9 Home September starts and has given up 16 runs in 17 innings at home vs LA. Look for LA To come away with another win here.

Ray Monohan

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have to like their chances pitting their biggest winner against one of the biggest enigmas in MLB - that would be Chris Tillman vs. Ubaldo Jimenez. Tillman has figured out that to get wins this year he just has to be solid as the O’s are 4th in scoring thanks to a league leading 180 homers. Tillman has won 2 of 4 starts against Cleveland for his career but has not faced them this season. At even odds I will gladly take him over Jimenez who is third in the league in walks and has a sub .500 record at home.

Steve Janus

Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8

Tonight's total between the Pirates and Brewers has been set too high. Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo has been straight dealing of late. He's got a 0.93 ERA and 1.035 WHIP over his last three starts. Gallardo has also owned the Pirates, going 11-3 with a 2.41 ERA over 18 starts. Not only will Pittsburgh struggle to score in this one, but I look for Milwaukee to come up empty handed against the Pirates Gerrit Cole, who has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in all but one of his 14 starts this season.

The UNDER has been a strong play when the Brewers take the field at home in the second half of the season against poor offensive clubs. 15 of their last 21 home games against an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse have finish UNDER the total. The UNDER is also 7-3 in the Pirates last 10 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 15-7 in the Brewers last 22 games when listed as a home dog.

Jack Jones

Tigers vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8

I believe the books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox tonight. These are two of the best lineups in baseball and should have no problem combining for 9-plus runs Tuesday.

Detroit is hitting .285 and scoring 5.1 runs/game in 2013, while Boston is hitting .274 and putting up 5.0 runs/game on the season. I believe the books have over-adjusted for Miguel Cabrera being out here.

While Jon Lester and Max Scherzer are having solid seasons, neither has fared well against tonight's opposition. Scherzer is 2-3 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in seven career starts against Boston. Lester is 1-2 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in six career starts against Detroit.

Boston is 16-4 OVER (+12.0 Units) in home games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Scherzer's last 7 starts vs. Red Sox. The OVER is 4-1 in Lester's last 5 starts vs. Tigers. The OVER is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

Nick Parsons

Dodgers vs. Rockies
Play; Under 9

The Dodgers are coming off a high-scoring 10-8 victory over the Rockies last night, but the win came at a cost as the visitors will be without the services of rookie-phenom Yasiel Puig who tweaked his knee in the sixth inning: "Going to get treatment see how it feels," Puig said afterwards.

With these two top-notch hurlers facing off tonight though, I believe all signs point to a lower-scoring pitchers duel.

Ricky Nolasco (11-9, 3.26 ERA)

Nolasco has been extremely dominant of late, tossing 16 scoreless frames spanning his last two starts, winning both. Over that stretch he's scattered just five hits to go along with 17 K's and one walk.

Most recently he sat down 11 Cubbies over eight innings during his team's 4-0 win on Wednesday.

Jhoulys Chacin (13-7, 3.08 ERA)

Chacin is 2-0 in three starts vs. LA this year and enters this game with a 6-1, 2.24 ERA record over his last eight in front of the home town crowd.

The bottom line: The loss of Puig in the lineup is a serious factor for the visitors. Puig is hitting .351 with 14 home runs, 32 RBIs and 55 runs so far this year.

But with Nolasco on the mound, the Dodgers have a real shot at continuing their winning ways as he is in fact 6-1 with a minuscule 2.20 ERA since being acquired from Miami.

When you add it all up, the table is set for a lower-scoring pitchers duel.

Bruce Marshall

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

Here they come again! We're talking about surging Oakland, on another of its patented upticks with wins in seven of its last eight, all vs. likely playoff entrants Detroit, Tampa Bay, and yesterday Texas, a 4-2 loser in the opener of this midweek set. That result pulled the A's even with the Rangers in the AL West race and now Oakland offers one of its aces, Bartolo Colon, with a 14-5 record, in tonight's battle for first place. Colon's Texas counterpart Martin Perez has won his last five starts, but he's received 40 runs of support in those outings, something that would appear very unlikely to recur with Colon on the mound tonight.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
Pick: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota gets to play a team with all kinds of problems and the Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the American League West. Houston has little pitching depth and is awful defensively in the field. Houston goes with Jarred Cosart, who may have a good ERA but he can't throw strikes walking 26 in 51 innings, a terrible ratio, and the Twins have seen him before. They face Minnesota southpaw Pedro Hernandez, whom they've never faced before. The Astros are 20-47 in their last 67 home games and 15-43 in their last 58 games vs. a left-handed starter. And the Twins are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Sam Martin

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

It's going from "bad" to "worse" for Cleveland, who not only lost for the fifth time in their last six games yesterday, but their ace pitcher Justin Masterson left with a sore left side after just one inning of work, and depending on how the tests come back he could be done for the year. That's just another in a long line of recent disappointments for the Indians who were in the playoff chase for the better part of the season, but are now on the outside looking in. Tonight they have to face a very good road pitcher in Chris Tillman, who is 8-1 (10-2 TSR) in 12 road starts with a very good 2.94 ERA. Indians with absolutely no momentum or confidence right now, and are also ice cold at the plate scoring two runs or less in five of their last seven games overall.

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +149 over KANSAS CITY

One cannot predict the outcome of a sporting event. You can look at all the breakdowns and numbers until you’re blue in the face but there are simply too many intangibles that impact the outcome that no crystal ball in the world could foresee and it’s for that reason we stress playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. A case in point is Bruce Chen. Fading him has value. Chen may go out and throw a gem today but this guy should not be this price over any team not named Houston or Miami. Chen hasn’t suddenly discovered something new. He’s a 36-year-old career swingman that has a career ERA of 4.49 over 1442 career innings. The Royals have dropped three of Chen’s last four starts. He was whacked by both Detroit and Washington over that span and he’s been whacked by a few others also. When Chen joined the rotation he had an ERA of 1.93 working primarily in relief but as a starter his ERA is 4.42. Chen’s margin of error is as thin as it’s always been and that’s because of a heavy fly-ball bias that is at a career low 25%/50% groundball/fly-ball rate. Advanced age, tons of fly balls, struggles against lefties and 77 career wins in 212 starts and 167 relief appearances are all reasons to bet against Chen at this price.

Erasmo Ramirez was on a lot of sleeper lists coming into the season but has made only eight MLB starts, after getting injured in spring training and missing a significant amount of time. Five of his eight starts have been pure quality and although he has a 5.18 ERA, his xERA is more than a full run lower at 4.07. If you just look at his skills, 4.07 xERA, 14/42 BB/K’s in 49 frames and a 46%/20%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile, it reveals his definite upside. Ramirez was one of the AL's most skilled starters in August and last year in September, he thrived with 27 IP, 7 ER, 5 BB/21 K. It appears that his arm is rounding into shape after an early triceps problem and should provide some nice value or profit potential in September. That applies here.

Chicago +133 over N.Y. YANKEES

Hiroki Kuroda has averaged over 200+ innings over the past three seasons and this year his inning count is up to 171. For a 38-year-old Korean League import, we may be seeing the signs of all that wear and tear. Since the All-Star break, Kuroda has allowed 57 hits in 52.2 innings for a BAA of .281. Over Kuroda’s last three starts, he’s been tagged for 29 hits in 16.2 innings for a BAA of .372. The Yankees have lost Kuroda’s last three starts by scores of 6-1, 7-2 and 7-2. Kuroda has been terrific all year at Yankee Stadium and perhaps he comes up stellar again here. However, the signs of fatigue are there and even if Kuroda comes up with a strong performance, it doesn’t mean he’ll win because Chris Sale is capable of shutting down anyone.

Sale gained 3.3 mph on his four-seam fastball between July and August, by far the largest increase in MLB. Sale’s base skills in August were much better than his 3.95 ERA suggests. In August he averaged 9.1 K’s per nine innings and just 1.7 walks. A 33% hit rate and 17% hr/f inflated his ERA. Both those numbers are on the extreme side of misfortune. Overall, Sale has 193 K’s and just 39 walks issued in 180 innings. He has sick stuff that can make hitter’s look silly and over his past six starts, he has a league-low 13% line-drive rate. Sale is showing no signs of a late-season fade and is absolutely one of the best pitchers in the league to take back a tag with. With 20 quality starts in 25 attempts this season, of course Sale and the South Side can get us to the cashier’s booth here.

L.A. ANGELS +125 over Tampa Bay

Hot team plus a price gets the call here over the suddenly slumping Rays. Tampa has dropped five in a row and eight of its past nine games. Over their last five games, the Rays have scored seven runs and they dropped the opener here last night, 11-2. Matt Moore comes off the DL after missing a month with soreness in his left elbow and there are plenty of lingering issues surrounding him. Moore had the perfect storm of wildness and hit%/strand% sabotage him in June (44% hit %, 58% strand %). Overall, Moore has the lowest skills of any starting pitcher in the majors the third time he goes through lineups. He can't find the plate late in games. In fact, his walk rate per 9 innings from the first to the third times through lineups is 2.4, 5.8, 7.2. His walk rate is definitely problematic and with this being his first start back since being off a month, it could rear its ugly head earlier than usual. Moore also has a fly-ball bias profile and while his strikeout rate remains near elite, it is the only thing preventing him from being one of the least skilled pitchers in the game. Everything else, including health says to be very cautious when backing Moore because he can lose it quicker than anyone.

Overall, the Rays are under .500 this season against lefties on the road and they’ll face one here in Jason Vargas. We’ll get back to Vargas in a minute. The Halos are the hottest team in the majors with nine wins in 10 games and over that span they’ve outscored they opposition, 50-20. Amazing what happens when under-achieving teams’ take the field with no pressure on them. Vargas has made barely noticeable steps in the right direction: Shut down LHBs in second half last year and his groundball % is creeping upwards while his other skills remain stable. Vargas always seems to give the Angels a chance to win, as his five losses in 18 starts will attest to. He comes in with a respectable 3.54 ERA and 18 K’s over his past 23 innings. Vargas cannot be recommended as a favorite but as a pooch throwing for the hottest team in the majors, he and the Angels offer up nothing but value here.

Texas +118 over OAKLAND

Martin Perez was a one-time top prospect that has seen his star diminish along with his strikeout rate over the past two years, with initial trial in Texas going about as poorly as you'd expect from a kid with solid command. While it feels like Perez has been around for a while, he's only 22 with his MLB trials marred with inconsistency. As expected, he's had some ups and downs since his late June promotion but the overall picture looks promising. Perez throws hard (93 mph), without much to show for it in the strikeout rate department, so it's likely he's having trouble controlling his secondary pitches. However, his overall command is much improved from a year ago and complements his groundball profile well. Despite his inconsistencies, Perez is a pitcher on the rise, as he's tossed pure quality starts in five of his past six starts with the Rangers winning all of his last six. With both Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis no longer threats to his job security, Perez likely has a rotation spot locked up and his pedigree makes him an intriguing play for the remainder of the season. Surely, he has more upside then Bartolo Colon.

Colon's xERA by month this year: 3.60/3.73/4.20/4.64/6.46. So while his ERA looks spectacular, Colon is far from a safe play. The rest he's had while on the DL may help the 40-year-old but that skills trend is ominous and not to be trusted spotting a price. End of story.

Bryan Power

Dodgers vs. Rockies
Pick: Under

We have an excellent pitching matchup Tuesday night at Coors Field w/ Ricky Nolasco opposing Jhoulys Chacin. You definitely can expect fewer runs to be scored here compared to yesterday's series opener, won by the Dodgers 10-8. Take the Under.

Nolasco has been an excellent acquisition for a Dodgers team that has now won 35 of 43 games since the All-Star Break and an insane 52 of its last 65 overall. Over his last three starts, he has a 0.82 ERA and 0.545 WHIP. He's working on a 16-inning scoreless streak, having shut out Boston and the Cubs in each of his last two starts. He has 17 strikeouts against just one walk during that time. Nolasco may not be able to rely on Yasiel Puig tonight to drive in any runs as the Cuban sensation left Monday's game with a knee injury. The Under has cashed in each of Nolasco's previous four starts.

Not to be outdone, Chacin is 13-7 w/ a 3.14 ERA and a 1.193 WHIP in 26 starts this season. He allowed only an unearned run in his last start, over seven innings. His previous start before that, he allowed just a pair of runs on four hits, again going seven innings. He has now allowed three earned runs or less in a pretty incredible 10 consecutive starts.

Nelly

Chicago White Sox + over New York Yankees

Yesterday's two hour rain delay saved the Yankees, getting their worst pitcher off the mound and taking away a start from Jose Quintana. New York will have to face an even tougher left-hander tonight however with Chris Sale on the mound. The Yankees had just five hits in a loss against Sale in early August and he has incredibly dominant numbers despite the losing record. Chicago has actually won four of his last five starts as the White Sox are playing better of late and Sale has struck out at least six batters in 12 consecutive starts. On the season at home New York is batting just .238 against left-handed pitching and New York has been struggling on offense before breaking out with one huge inning against the Chicago bullpen yesterday. Chicago is batting .264 in the last 10 games and New York is 1-4 in the last five starts from Hiroki Kuroda. He has allowed 19 runs in his last three starts as his once fine season has completely dissolved. Kuroda has been very good at home this season but on the year New York is just 14-13 in his starts despite his strong valuation. The White Sox beat Kuroda in this matchup less than a month ago and yesterday's win was the first for the Yankees in the last seven meetings between these teams. New York has more to play for but a struggling offense is overvalued Tuesday night against one of the best pitchers in baseball.