Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, September 30

SPORTS WAGERS

KANSAS CITY -103 over Oakland

We like the A's experience, specifically Jon Lester who has appeared in 14 playoff games with 12 of those being of the starting variety but we can't trust Oakland's offense to deliver in support of Lester. We've faded that laboring offense several times down the stretch and we'll do so again here against James Shields. Current A's have just 43 hits in 200 career AB's against Shields for a BA of .215. The A's hit a measly .217 down the stretch over their last 15 games when it mattered most and it's also worth noting that the Royals took five of seven games from the Athletics this season. Shields has a BB/K split of 5/34 over his last six starts covering 42 innings. Over that stretch he posted an ERA of 0.86 with an outstanding 53% groundball rate and 12% swing and miss rate.

Lester is dealing it too but his groundball rate over his last 42 innings was just 41%. Lester also posted a very high 81% strand rate over the entire season and a 88% strand rate over his last six starts. Current Royals have hit .243 against Lester in 218 career AB's, which is 28 points higher than Oakland batters have hit over Shields in a comparable number of at-bats. One also has to favor the Royals outstanding bullpen more than Oakland's and there's a very good chance that the pens will end up deciding this one. Then there's the all-important ability to manufacture runs in what figures to be a low scoring game (the total is 6½). Kansas City led the majors with 87 stolen bases while Oakland stole just 47. It's often been said that bases are stolen off pitchers, not catchers and if that's the case, give Kansas City and James Shields the edge there too. In 227 innings pitched this season, Shields' has been stolen on just six times while Lester has been stolen on 16 times in 219 innings.

It's one game and anything can happen but the A's were horrible on the road in the second half and their offense has been brutally awful for well over two months. When we break this all down, we don't see one area where the A's have an advantage (offense, speed, defense, bullpens, starters, current form) other than experience but that's certainly not enough to make a case for the A's on the road in a one-game showdown.

Jimmy Adams

Oakland A's vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Oakland A's -101

With the longest playoff drought coming to an end, it’s time to put up or shut up as it all comes down to 1 game between the A’s and Royals. The Royals come in a severely inexperienced team and just flat out aren’t ready for this kind of pressure. The season is already a success in their book.

Kansas City lacks power in the middle of their lineup, something that will contribute to their downfall now that the postseason has arrived. Starter James Shields hasn’t had much success in the postseason, dating back to 2010 and 2011 when he was with the Rays. He should pitch a decent game, but in the end it just won’t be enough.

The A’s played terribly down the stretch, and if it weren’t for the Mariners falling apart at the end Oakland might be watching this one from home. Nevertheless, it’s a new season and Oakland is ready to go. They have much more experience than the Royals, yet are still extremely hungry to make a deep postseason push. The A’s have been a dominant team, but still have yet to reach the World Series since their resurgence, a goal that Billy Beane and his players are solely focused on this year.

Jon Lester has had great postseason success, posting a 2.11 ERA in 13 playoff games. He won’t be rattled at all by this atmosphere. The A’s will fall to the Angels in the next series, but they’ll get the job done here. Take the A’s.

MLB Predictions

Athletics / Royals Under 6.5

I can't believe the postseason is already upon us, but here we are. I am sure some people can't believe the Royals are in this position, however, they were a leading dark horse candidate going into the start of the season. The A's acquired John Lester for this time, a time where pitching wins you a World Series. Lester is familiar in this territory as a member of the Boston Red Sox. But as an A, Lester is having one of the best seasons of his career. Lester finished the season with an ERA of 2.46 with a 1.10 WHIP and .279 OBP. He hasn't allowed greater than 3 runs since June 6th when he was a member of the Red Sox, against the Tigers. Lester holds a 1.80 ERA over his last three games, including no runs allowed against the Mariners. Lester has been the model of consistency this year. James Shields will assume the starting role for the Royals tonight, who has bee consistent all year as well. Shields finished the regular season with a 3.21 ERA. He has allowed more than 3 runs only once since July 1st, sixteen starts. The postseason is largely dominated by pitching, and I think we get off to one of those starts with Lester and Shields. It was a great way to finish the season for me, need to keep it rolling.

Bob Balfe

Oakland A's -110

The postseason has arrived. When you look at both starting pitchers you see both had fine seasons. I think this is going to be a great game. Kansas City has not hosted a playoff game for almost 30 years and in a one game situation I have to lean on Lester for having better postseason numbers and there is no question this Oakland bullpen is better. Kansas City was last in all of baseball in home runs hit. That one big shot might be the difference in a game like this. This should be a great low scoring game. Look for Lester to pitch a gem and the bullpen to take over late. Take Oakland.

Jeffery James

Oakland -105

The Royals have had a great season but it comes to an end tonight since they go up against Lester who is loaded with playoff experience from his days with the Red Sox and who has been excellent lately giving up just 4 earned runs in his last 20 innings of work And he has dominated the Royals in his career going 9-3 against them with an ERA of 1.84. Lots of reasons to like Oakland here.

Primetime Insiders

Athletics

No play on our system but a lean towards Oakland +104. Lester is slightly overrated per our system and strikes out batters at an amazing 8.33 K per 9 innings. Lester might find it difficult to strikeout the Royals team which has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Additionally, the Royals are a very patient team with the highest walk ratio in the league. Lester is all about three pitches his fastball (45%), cutter (33%), and curveball (21%). His best pitch is by far is the curveball which could give the Royals some trouble as they are very poor against this pitch.

KC is going to rocking on Tuesday night with its first playoff game in a long time and what a pitcher to send to the mound with James Shields. Shields is also slightly overrated with a very high strikeout rate as well sitting at 7.14 per 9 innings. The Athletics just don’t strikeout with one of the lowest in the league. Shields has four pitches he uses routinely with fastball (41%), cutter (24%), curveball (13%), and changeup (27%). If Shields gets too dependent on his fastball he could get into trouble against a very good fastball hitting Athletic team. Shields should find a lot of success with his cutter and changeup and the Athletics are very poor against these pitches.

Overrall our system likes the Athletics but it is tough to pick against the Royals at home for their first playoff game in along time. The total looks dead on with our system generating a total of 6.51.

Chip Chirimbes

Oakland at Kansas City
Play: Oakland -102

The first American League Wild Card contest will be played by a pair of 'hitless wonders' as both the A's and Royals have trouble scoring runs. It doesn't look like it will get any better tonight as both clubs will send their ace's to the mound. Oakland who just hasn't been the same since acquiring Jon Lester (16-11 2.46 ERA overall and 6-4, 2.35 with the A's) from the Red Sox have played under .500 baseball since the All-Star break. They were 12-17 in August and 10-16 in September but with Lester they have playoff experience as he has make 13 post season appearances with Boston. Lester is 9-3 lifetime against Kansas City including 3-0 this season. The Royals starter Jamie Fields (14-8, 3.21) is 1-0 against the A's this season and 6-4 lifetime. In what could end up a classic pitching dual I'll go with experience.

Chip Chirimbes's Featured Package

Tony Stoffo

Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Oakland Athletics -103

With Lester getting the ball here tonight makes for a solid release on Oakland in this spot here. Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last season’s World Series, and He was 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season – two of the wins came with Oakland – and has career marks of 9-3 and 1.84 in 13 career starts against Kansas City. Plus add in the fact that that Lester had a 2.00 ERA in his 5 September starts only adds to this play on the A's here tonight. Oakland at this price the play here.

LT Profits

Oakland vs. Kansas City
Pick: Under 3.5 1st Half

Look for a great starting pitching matchup in the American League Wild Card between Jon Lester and the Oakland Athletics and James Shields and the Kansas City Royals. The Athletics feel apart soon after trading for Lester because they struggled to score after trading their biggest run producer Yoenis Cespedes to get him. Lester did his part though, posting a 2.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 71 strikeouts vs. 16 walks in 76.2 innings for Oakland. Shields meanwhile deserved better than his 14-8 record given his 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and fine ratio of 180 strikeouts vs. 44 walks. Shields pitched well in both starts vs. the A’s allowing five runs and 11 hits with just one walk in 14 innings, and he is catching an Oakland lineup that batted .225 vs. righties the last 10 games of the season. The full-game ‘under’ is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings, but are eliminating the bullpens from the equation here.

DAVE COKIN

ATHLETICS AT ROYALS
PLAY: UNDER 6.5

This should be fun. The A’s are still playing in spite of a colossal September collapse. The Royals are still playing beyond game #162 for the first time in a generation.

The home field advantage here is definitely in play. This crowd is going to be insane. Kansas City baseball fans have been longing for a winner for what seems like an eternity and they’re going to be completely jacked up for this event. I would say the home field edge here is perhaps a dime more than it would normally be as far as the betting line is concerned.

The A’s are in on a free roll of sorts. They’ve basically been dismissed as legit World Series contenders by the talking heads who get the most attention. That could actually be a remedy for their recent ailments, as they’re sort of back to being that little engine that could once again, and that’s the role that seems to serve them best.

I’m think the Under is worth a look here. The A’s aren’t hitting anybody right now, and James Shields has plenty of playoff experience. It has to be noted that his post-season ledger isn’t exactly a thing of beauty, but there’s still enough there to at least assume he won’t succumb to big stage nerves.

Jon Lester was nothing short of spectacular last October for the Red Sox, and figures to be strong here. The Royals are not explosive, and need to make consistent contact to thrive as they lack power. Lester profiles as the type most likely to give them trouble, as he’s a power lefty.

I’m going to be really interested to see who Oakland starts behind the plate. It needs to be Geovany Soto, who isn’t as dangerous with the stick as Derek Norris, but is much better at limiting steals. That’s a big key in terms of containing an important aspect of the Kansas City offense.

The Oakland bullpen has not been good of late, but I really expect Lester to go deep here. The Royals really only need Shields to let it all hang out for six frames, as there’s no better late inning trifecta in the game than Herrera, Davis and Holland.

The A’s are not a small ball entry, but they need to try and manufacture runs here. The Royals play that way anyway, and the likelihood of a big inning against Lester is pretty low. I think we’re looking at a pitching duel and a close, low scoring game. I’ll make the Tuesday free play Under 6.5 between the A’s and Royals.

Wunderdog

Oakland @ Kansas City
Pick: Oakland +100

These two teams on the surface look fairly equal. Nothing could be further from the truth. While Kansas City won 89 games and Oakalnd 88, that’s misleading. Pythagorean analysis (thanks Bill James) tell us that based on runs scored vs. runs allowed, the A’s are really more like a 100-win team while the Royals are more like a 83-win team! Yes, we know the Atheltics struggled down the stretch, but they righted the ship and made the playoffs and now gets to go with last year’s World Series hero, Jon Lester, tonight. Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last season’s World Series for Boston and has gone 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since Oakland acquired him from the Red Sox. He was 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season – two of the wins came with Oakland – and has career marks of 9-3 and 1.84 in 13 career starts against Kansas City. The Athletics are 4-0 in Lester’s last four starts against the American League Central. You can’t trust James Shields at home in this big game, as he’s 4-6 at home this season where opponents hit .272 off him. The Royals are 2-6 in Shields’ last eight home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Shields went 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six postseason starts with the Tampa Bay Rays before being dealt to the Royals, as well. Kansas City is 1-6 at home against a team with a winning record, so grab the dog and their big game ace. Play the better team. Take the A’s.

Sammy P

Washington Capitals Over/Under Season Points
Recommendation: Over 88.5

Last week my blog centered around the Florida Panthers and my recommendation to go Under their season point/win total. This week with baseball winding down and few games on the card I decided to once again focus on a specific NHL team and see if we can beat the market.

The Washington Capitals come into the 2014-15 with new coach Barry Trotz at the helm. The departure of Adam Oates behind the bench and the addition of longtime Nashville Predators coach Trotz has me immediately looking to back a talented yet underachieving Capitals team. The past seven seasons have seen the Caps finish with greater than 88.5 points (90, 97.4 extrapolated in a shorten season, 92, 107, 121, 108, and 94 points). Washington has been on a downward turn the past three seasons, but a change in system and style will catapult them back into the top of the Eastern Conference.

Goaltender Braden Holtby is at the point in his young career where he is ready to take the next step. He should flourish under Trotz and his defensively minded system. Holtby hasn't let up a single goal in his preseason games so far with 109:34 of shutout hockey. If Washington gets back into the playoffs, it will be Holtby who carries them and not Alex Ovechkin. That being said, it is hard to ignore the fact that as good offensively as Ovechkin was last season, he should be a better overall player under Trotz's system. Adam Oates just couldn't get on the same page with his stars and Trotz can't be any worse.

The additions of defensemen Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik should pay immediate dividends on an otherwise poor defensive club. Another variable we have to look at as a positive is defenseman Mike Green, if he can stay remotely healthy this season he improves Washington both offensively and defensively. All in all, there is no reason this point total should be 88.5. The Capitals will make the playoffs this season and they will finish above 90 points. Take the Over.

Ray Monohan

Oakland A’s -105

The A’s survived and made the playoffs and now they have a one game playoff against Kansas City, another survivor. Odds on this one are pretty even and this is a great pitching matchup with Jon Lester against James Shields. I am going with Oakland to squeeze a little extra juice and because I like Lester a little better. Both can be great but Lester has the awesome playoff pedigree and has the more experienced team behind him.

Steve Rich

Oakland vs. Kansas City
Play: Under 6½

The game will be played at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Game time is 8:07 ET and will be aired on TBS. The Royals make it back to the playoffs for the first time in 29 years. This will be a sellout crowd with many fans that weren’t even born the last time the Royals were in the playoffs.

Jon Lester takes the mound for the A’s with a 16-11 record and 2.46 ERA. He has been a Royals killer in his career going 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA in 13 starts. He won all three of his starts against them this year with a 2.61 ERA. To be fair there are a lot of pitchers who have claimed KC as the team they dominate because the Royals haven’t really been competitive many years until the last couple. The A’s have had trouble scoring since they traded Cespedes. They hit .233 after the ASG and have the worst second half record of any team in the playoffs.

The Royals counter with James Shields, with his 14-8 record and 3.21 ERA. Shields is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 15 starts versus the Athletics. He was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 2 starts this year. Like the A’s, KC has trouble scoring runs. They led the majors in stolen bases and are capable of manufacturing runs, which they need to because they had the least amount of homers in the majors this year. They had three players that stole 25 bases this year. The KC late inning relievers are the best group in the majors. They were 72-1 when having the lead after seven innings.

This should be a low scoring game and the team that scratches out a run or two likely will get the win. The A’s bullpen is almost as good as the Royals. This game may come down to who scores a run first.