Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the KC Royals over the Oakland A's in their one-game Wild Card playoff game at Kaufman Stadium this evening.
To be honest, this is more of an opinion than a free release just because there are so many scenarios where I could see both teams winning the game.
As I went back and forth from Oakland to KC to Oakland and back to KC, one thing couldn't be argued... the Kansas City bullpen is absolutely phenomenal and in a tight game at the end, this will be the difference that puts Kansas City over the top.
Jon Lester and James Shields are very similar pitchers other than the fact that one of them is a lefty and the other is a righty, both offenses are not big bombers and they don't walk a lot, but they also don't strike out a lot... we're going to get a lot of balls in play.
The difference, to me, is the bullpen, and Kansas City has the slight advantage. Take the Royals as your free play of the day.
1♦ KANSAS CITY
Vegas Butcher
A's/Royals Under 6.5
Keep in mind, all stats quoted in my analysis for the playoffs is for 2nd half of the season only, unless specified. A lot of playoff teams make trades and other roster moves, which isn’t truly captured in the full-year results at time. I feel it’s better to focus on 2nd half data when teams improve their BP (Angels), lose a hitter (A’s, BAL), or add starting pitching (A’s, SFG, etc.).
Everyone knows that A’s went 16-29 (36%) to close out the year. What people might now know is that they went 5-13 in 1-run games or extra-innings, which is something that tends to even out over a long run. The reason for their inability to win close games was their poor hitting. With Cespedes getting traded and players like Moss/Norris/Reddick/etc. cooling off from their unsustainable 1st half performances, it wasn’t a surprise to see Oakland’s offense decline. They’re ranked 10th overall on the year still, but their 2nd half performance is at mediocre 22nd. They had a wRC+ of 89 and only .299 wOBA in the 2nd half of the year. You’re going to be involved in a lot of close (1-run) games this way and tend to lose more than not. In addition, remember that Doolittle missed time late in the season with an injury, which didn’t help the matters. That’s why the A’s BP ranks 16th for the 2nd half of the year, after being top-10 for majority of the season. Doolittle is healthy yet the offense will probably continue to struggle going forward. KC’s offense wasn’t much better, ranking 18th in the 2nd half of the year with a 93 wRC+ and .301 wOBA. Just like the A’s, Royals aren’t good offensively but they have the 8th best BP and an elite defense ranking #2.
Both teams will also have their best pitchers on the mound. Lester is my 19th ranked starter over the 2nd half of the year. In last year’s post-season for the Red Sox he went 34 innings with 29K to 8 BB and an ERA of 1.6. He also held KC to 2.6 ERA in his 3 starts against them this year. Shields is coming into this matchup posting 2.6 FIP with a 7.5 K/BB rate in September, his best mark of the year. He possess the kind of off-speed arsenal that has given the A’s fits in the 2nd half of the year, where they rank in the bottom-10 against both the ‘cutter’ and the ‘changeup’. I think both starters will have very good starts tonight against struggling offensive lineups. Defense and bullpens will determine the outcome of this one but that’s too close to call here. I believe the UNDER is a much stronger play than the side in this one.