SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +190 over PITTSBURGH
In a favorable pitching matchup yesterday and having just been swept by the Brewers over the weekend, the Pirates had five hits in the opener of this series and lost 5-1. Pittsburgh has now dropped six of their past eight and 20 of their past 30 games. The Bucs are still in this thing but the pressure of being in a playoff battle for the first time in two decades has this team on edge.
Wandy Rodriguez seemingly got a reprieve a month ago when he was traded to these Pirates from Houston. It appears being in a playoff race is something he’s not used to either. In seven starts, Rodriguez is 2-4 with a 4.12 ERA in his new digs. Rodriguez's skills don't spell a collapse but what they do spell is an aging pitcher in trouble. His rise in xERA (4.90) confirms what’s on the surface. Rodriguez’s strikeout rate has dropped by a significant two K’s per game. He’s now beginning to walk more batters (7BB/6K’s over his past 11 innings) than ever and that might be the most telling sign of them all.
Jordan Lyles has given up 11 runs in two starts vs. Pittsburgh this year despite a 14 K/0 BB in those games. That seems to be his season in a nutshell, as his underlying skills are better than his surface stats. He also owns a rock solid 53% groundball rate. The Astros are under no pressure. They’re pretty much “free-rolling” the rest of the way. If they don’t win another game in the final month, it’s not going to be a big deal. They’re expected to lose. They appear to be having fun. They’ve won two of their past three and they should’ve won the weekend series over the Reds. As a 2-1 favorite, the Pirates and Rodriguez, both of whom are struggling under this pressure, become an instant fade.
L.A. Angels -117 over OAKLAND
In seven starts since being traded to the Angels, L.A has lost four of Zack Greinke’s starts. Greinke’s ERA over that span is 4.65. In four of his first five starts as an Angel, he allowed four runs or more. As a result, he’s very undervalued here and that allows us to step in at a cheap price with an elite pitcher.
Greinke has 162 k’s with just 45 walks issued in 170 innings. Greinke has flashed elite skills for years and this season is no exception. He has a 52% groundball rate, an outstanding K/BB ratio and it’s been said that he doesn’t throw the same pitch twice in a game. The reason his numbers aren’t Cy Young-like is a very unlucky 71% strand rate on the season. Pay little attention to his surface results. Greinke is the same pitcher he was when he was dominating opponents en route to his first Cy Young award. He’s the straight goods.
Jarrod Parker is no Greinke. His 2.47 home ERA is fraudulent. Parker has enjoyed some success early on in his big league career, but his xERA at home of 4.33 emphasizes the degree to which his results have exceeded his skills. His line-drive rate of 26% reveals that balls are being hit hard against him. Parker’s 1.32 WHIP, which is quite ordinary, also reveals the degree in which luck has played a big part. Parker has upside but he’s simply not on the same level as Greinke and the A’s offense is not on the same level as the Halos. In terms of laying less than 20 cents, this is as good as it gets
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Pirates -1.5 +100FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I definitely see a starting pitching mismatch here & a "boatrace" is quite possible here. Houston sends out Jordan Lyles, & he has simply been terrible on the ROAD & also vs these Pirates this season. Lyles is (1-6) in 10 road starts this season, with a 6.88 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, & a .327 BAA. Add on his ineptness vs these Pirates this season; 2 starts, 9.90 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .348 BAA & I really expect the Pirates to get to him by the 5th or 6th inning tonight. While the Pirates are struggling and now stand 2.5 games out of a wild card spot, they KNOW they must take care of business in this Astros series here, & they send out ex-Astros SP Wandy Rodriguez tonight. Wandy has been very solid his L/2 starts, vs Milwaukee and the Cardinals, & he did defeat these Astros at Minute Maid Park back on July 28th. Houston has stuggled on the road vs LH & I feel confident that Wandy out pitches Lyles here & hands the ball over to the Pirates best arms in their good bullpen tonight, & I am all over the PIRATES RL tonight.
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PITTSBURGH -1.5 (-105) over Houston: The Pirates have been sliding and can not afford to lose these games vs the Lowly Astros, especially at home. Pittsburgh has been one of the best home teams all year long, while Houston has been one of the worst on the road, yet Houston won in Pittsburgh last night and i feel this sets up for a big rebound game by Pittsburgh tonight. Also helps that Jordans Lyles goes for Houston tonight. Jordan is 1-6 with a 6.88 ERA on the road and Houston is 1-9 in his road starts. In Houston's lasy 6 road losses with him on the mound, they have been outscored by a count of 56-13, while losing each game by 4 runs or more. Jordan has pitched once here this year and allowed 7 ER's in just 4 innings of an 11-2 Pittsburgh win. The Pirates send out Wandy Rodriguez to right the ship and he has pitched well in his last 2 starts, allowing 3 ER's in 12.2 innings of work. In his last start vs St Louis he allowed 0 ER's on just 3 hits in 6 innings, and should have little problems shutting down a Houston team that hit's lefties at a .197 clip and scores just 2.48 rp/ 9 innings off of them on the road. Look for Pittsburgh to get back on track with a nice easy 5+ run win over the lowly Astros.
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LA Angels/ Oakland Over 7.5: Google News Play Zach Greinke has been pitching well for the Angels of late, but he does have a 5.03 in his 3 road starts for them so far, with an average of 11.3 rpg being scored in the 3 games. Zach has pitched once here this year and in that game he allowed 4 ER's and 17 runs were scored in the game. Jarod Parker has pitched well for the A's and he does have a 2.48 ERA at home, but that ERA is 3.78 in his last 5 starts here. This pick isn't really about the pitching as both offenses have been hot and just hitting any starter that has come their way. The Angels come in hitting .273 and scoring 5.1 rpg in their last 10 games, while this scorching A's offense has and average of .293 and a scoring average of 7.5 rpg in their last 10 games. They have also hit 22 HR's in their last 10 games. Both offenses should continue to hit and score as this one flies OVER the total.
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Baltimore/ Toronto Under 8: Without Bautista in the lineup the jays are having problems scoring runs. They come in averaging just 3.5 rpg in their last 10 games and have averaged just 2.4 rpg in in their current home stand (5 games). Now they get to face Zach Britton, who has been very good in his last 3 starts, posting a 1.25 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over that stretch. Zach did face Toronto once this year and allowed just 2 ER's in 6.2 innings of work in that start. Carlos Villanueva has pitched very well for the Jays this year with a 3.10 ERA overall and a 2.44 ERA at home. Carlos has a 1.14 WHIP at home and his home starts on the year have averaged a mere 5.86 rpg. In his blast 10 starts overall he has allowed more than 3 ER's just twice and has allowed 2 ER's or less in 6 of those starts. He has struggled some with the O's in his career (5.32 ERA in 4 starts), but will be tanking on an O's team that has averaged just 3.8 rpg on the road this year. We also have an Ump behind the plate (Jim Reynolds), who has seen 7 of his last 8 go Under the total, with an average of 5.6 rpg being scored in those games. I really expect this one to struggle to reach 6 runs.
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POWER ANGLE PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas -151 over KANSAS CITY: Gonna ride the hot Rangers here. Texas is 12-4 in their last 16 games and have really beaten up on the weak teams this year, going 71-33 in their last 104 games vs a team with a losing record and they are 14-2 in Matt Harrison's last 16 road starts. The Rangers are 4-1 in Matt's last 5 starts vs the Royals, while he is 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA in 2 career starts in this park. Jeremy Guthrie has pitched well since coming over to to the Royals, with a 2-2 mark and a 2.45 ERA at home, but he has struggled with the Rangers of late, going 0-3 with a 4.88 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them and I see him struggling vs them again as he will face a Rangers offense that has averaged 5.7 rpg in this last 10 games. KC has averaged 4.7 rpg in their last 10, but still will struggle to get much off of Harrison in this one. The Royals had swept Detroit at home last week, but has since dropped 3 of 4 and I just don't see them getting a win tonight vs the hot Rangers. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Texas is 23-3 in Matt Harrison's last 26 road starts vs a team with a losing record.
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Arizona vs. San Francisco
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These two NL West teams are trending in two different directions, and that continued yesterday with the Giants picking up a 9-8 victory in extra innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see the loss totally deflate the Diamondbacks, who led 8-7 heading into the home half of the ninth. Meanwhile, the Giants are still looking to expand their division lead, which is still only 4.5 games over the rival Dodgers.
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Arizona has now lost 9 of 11 overall to drop all the way to 11.5 games back of the Giants. Their playoff chances are now all but done. The good news is that yesterday they scored eight runs, their most in any game since 8.18. The bad news is they still lost. Allowing 9 or more runs in a game is not a good sign for the Diamondbacks, who are 2-9 the next game after giving up that many runs their previous game this season. They are also 4-11 off a division loss. You shouldn't expect them to score eight runs again, given that they average less than four per game on the road this year.
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Pitching matchup favors the home team as well. Ryan Vogelsong is outstanding at home with a 2.44 ERA in 13 starts. The team is 17-8 when he starts this season, including 12-2 in night games. In five career starts vs. Arizona, Vogelsong has a 1.89 ERA. This includes a strong showing earlier this year when he allowed just one run over seven innings. The Giants have won 10 of their last 13.
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Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +114FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers are showing value on the run line at this price with ace Clayton Kershaw on the hill. The Dodgers have won each of his last 6 starts against the Padres, and those wins came by an average of 2.5 runs. He didn't allow more than 3 earned runs in any of these starts. The Dodgers are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus San Diego, winning those by an average of 2.0 runs. Again, he didn't allow more than 3 earned runs in any of these outings. The Padres are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings, including 2-11 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers on the run line.
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NY Yankees +129FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees get the call as our free given Freddy Garcia's strong track record against Tampa Bay. He is 9-2 (11-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.33 in 17 career starts against the Rays. The Yankees are 4-1 in his last 5 starts against the Rays and 4-1 in his last 5 starts overall. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and the Rays have lost both of his starts versus the Yankees. Bet New York.
Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants -117
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The San Francisco Giants should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks. By winning 11 of their last 14 games, the Giants (77-58) have grabbed a stranglehold on the NL West division lead.
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Ryan Vogelsong remains one of the most underrated starters in the game, and this line is a reflection of that. The right-hander is 12-7 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 13 home starts.
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Ian Kennedy has struggled for much of the year after a solid 2011 campaign. Arizona's right-hander is 12-11 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in 27 starts this season. Vogelsong is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.
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The Diamondbacks are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. Arizona is 1-6 in Kennedy's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Giants are 40-11 in their last 51 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. San Francisco is 8-1 in Vogelsong's last 9 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Giants Tuesday.
Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay -125FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees remain atop the division holding narrow leads of a single game over Baltimore and just 2½ games against T-Bay. The Rays are not only chasing NYY for the division lead, but also trail Baltimore by 1½ games in the Wild Card race. It sets up a classic Hunter vs. the Hunted scenario with 2 teams going opposite directions. NYY sends Garcia to the mound who has a 4.90 ERA and has failed to reach the 5th inning in either of his last 2 starts. NYY has won just 4/13 recent games. T-Bay has made a nice 2nd half surge of 23-12. In that span they have won 6 consecutive Cobb starts. In that time he has posted a 3.38 ERA.
David Banks
Angels / A's Under 7.5
The Los Angeles Angels (72-63) kept their wild card hopes alive by beating the Oakland Athletics (76-58) 8-3 on Monday, and the two teams now continue their three-game series on Tuesday at O.co Coliseum in Oakland, CA at 10:05 ET. The A's still lead the wild card race by one game over the equally surprising Baltimore Orioles, but the Halos pulled to within 4 games of Oakland with Monday's win and they are now 3 games behind Baltimore for the last wild card spot.
The Angels appeared to be dead in the water less than two weeks ago, but they have gotten back in the mix by winning six of their last seven games, getting some help from the schedule-makers as they beat up on the dead Red Sox and the punchless Mariners prior to yesterday's series opener here. Los Angeles now looks to get closer with Zach Greinke on the mound, and truth be told, he has been a disappointment since coming to the Angels from the Milwaukee Brewers of the National League. Greinke is 3-2 in seven starts in an Angel uniform, but he has a 4.82 ERA with American League batters hitting .271 off of him. He does have a good ratio of 40 strikeouts against 17 walks in 46.2 innings, but he has already allowed seven home runs in seven starts in the AL after allowing seven homers in 21 starts while with Milwaukee. The good news is that after recording only one Quality Start in his first five outings with the Angels, he is now coming off of back-to-back such outings while allowing a total of three runs and 10 hits with 12 strikeouts in 14.2 innings vs. the Red Sox and Tigers. Greinke did not fare so well when he started vs. the A's in Oakland on August 8th, as he allowed four earned runs on six hits plus an alarming five walks in just five innings.
Oakland remains one of the biggest surprises in baseball as the A's still sit 18 games over .500 despite ranking second to last in the Major Leagues with a .237 batting average. However, that average is up to .290 over the last 10 games including a robust .307 vs. right-handed pitchers, thanks to a 20-2 win over the Red Sox on Friday. In fact, the A's were suddenly averaging 10.0 runs per game in their previous six games before being brought back down to earth by the Halos Monday. Jarrod Parker gets the start on Tuesday and the rookie is having a fine initial campaign at 9-7 with a 3.72 ERA, although his command could be better as he has 55 walks against 107 strikeouts in 140.1 innings. Parker is also coming off of a tough outing vs. the normally light-hitting Indians as he allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings. He as faced the Angels twice with mixed results, allowing only one run and five hits in seven innings the first time he faced them, but four runs on nine hits in 6,2 innings the second time with both starts coming here in Oakland.
Oakland is 6-4 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings this season, and most of those games have been low scoring with the 'under' going 8-2. Also, the Athletics are an incredible 25-5 in their last 30 home games vs. right-handed starters.
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Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
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Pittsburgh is 16-6 at home versus Houston the last 3 seasons including 6-1 this year.Houston is 2-14 as road underdogs of +175 to +200.Houston is 14-53 on the road and versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season currently 4-25.Houston starting pitcher Lyles has a chance for the first time to win two consecutive road wins after previously going 0-10 with a 6.99 e.r.a. but it will not be easy as he is 0-2 with an 8.04 e.r.a versus Pittsburgh and his only start in Pittsburgh gave up 7 runs in 4 innings.While his opponent and former teammate Rodriquez is coming off his best start as a Pirate.Take Pittsburgh on the runline in an absolutely must win game.
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Seattle Mariners tonight against the visiting - and struggling - Boston Red Sox.
As I told you last night, it's a real shame to watch the Red Sox fold this far before the end of the season... (tongue in cheek, said the New York Yankees fans). But seriously, it's not looking good at all, even after the fire sale that sent a couple of Boston's big guns to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Red Sox have lost seven straight and are now in Seattle, where the Mariners have done some damage.
Seattle, which has won 13 of 19 overall, has won 18 of its last 22 at Safeco. And even though the Red Sox have won nine of the last 14 meetings, it must say something to know the oddsmakers have made Seattle a small underdog against Boston.
The Crimson Hose have lost the first seven games of their nine-game, nine-day road trip, and have scored two runs or less in each game after being outscored 49-11. This one doesn't get any easier for Boston, which is why I'm taking Seattle.
2♦ SEATTLE
Craig Davis
My free play run stands at 71-48.
For Tuesday, free play is the New York Yankees.
The Yankees always have to make it interesting, don't they? After owning a 10-game lead in the AL East back on July 18, they have fumbled their way to a mere one-game lead over Baltimore with a few weeks remaining in the season.
Since the All-Star break, the Yanks are just 24-25 and have struggled with runners in scoring position and have struggled to stay healthy.
Alex Rodriguez is finally back... and wouldn't you know, on the same day he comes back they may have lost Robinson Cano to a strained hamstring. This is all with Mark Texeira also out with injury.
It's amazing, honestly, that they've been able to keep their heads above water like they have, but tonight they need a masterful performance from Freddy Garcia to hopefully give themselves some breathing room in the division.
Alex Cobb (8-8, 4.39 ERA) gets the start for the Rays tonight, coming off a less-than-stellar performance Wednesday in Texas, allowing four runs on eight hits in under five innings of work. He lost his only start of the season against the Bronx Bombers, allowing four runs in seven innings of a 4-1 loss back in early June.
Freddy Garcia (7-5, 4.90), who likely won't pitch more than six innings, was fairly impressive in his last outing, going five innings allowing two runs in the Yankees 4-2 win over Cleveland. He is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts versus the Rays, and he's a crafty veteran who knows the importance of this game.
I'll take my chances with the Yankees as your free play of the day.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Baltimore Orioles against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Baltimore opened the "battle of the birds" yesterday with a 4-0 blank-job to pull to within one game of the division lead in the A.L. East. The Orioles have now won 20 of their last 28 games overall, and tonight's starter Zach Britton is searching for his fourth straight winning start.
Britton is on a 3-0 run with just three earned runs allowed in over 21 innings of work. Hard to believe both Britton and the O's are not getting a little more respect against a Toronto team that has lost their last three, and are just 60-74 for the season.
The Orioles have won the last three season series meetings, and six of the last nine overall in the season series.
Carlos Villanueva will counter for the Blue Jays and while Villanueva is coming off a win his last trip, he is just 1-4 overall his last six starts.
Baltimore is feeling it right now, and I am not about to go against them.
O's do it again.
4♦ BALTIMORE
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Tuesday night is going to be the Washington Nationals on the Run Line, over the visiting Chicago Cubs.
With a 6-1/2 game lead in the National League East, the Nationals know this is an important time to win. There is a sense of urgency right now, especially with young ace Stephen Strasburg expected to make only two more starts.
And with that mentality, you're going to see that explosive offense take off this week. Right now the Nats are batting .330 with 41 runs during a 5-1 stretch, and even though they opened this series with a slim 2-1 win Monday night, those bats are sure to get going against young Chris Rusin.
The left-hander will be making just his second big league start, after making his Major League debut on Aug. 21 against the Brewers. At Triple-A Iowa, the lefty was 8-9 with a 4.55 ERA over 25 starts.
And since the Nationals have averaged 6.8 runs per game over their last six games, I think the youngen is going to be in trouble tonight.
2♦ WASHINGTON -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
In a pitching rematch between Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Harrison, my money is on the Kansas City Royals tonight over the Texas Rangers, as my free pick for Tuesday.
That's why I want you listing both. Guthrie and Harrison met one month ago, right here in Kansas City, and Kansas City's right-hander tossed a quality start - lasting six innings and allowing just three earned runs while scattering six hits and striking out four.
Since then, spanning five starts, he's produced four quality starts. The only bad start was in Boston, where he allowed six earned runs over 2-2/3 innings. In the other four starts: 30 innings pitched, one earned run allowed and 26 strikeouts.
He's fully capable of taking on the Rangers, and sezing the opportunity to shut down that offense. Especially with revenge on the brain.
Harrison lost his previous start, to the Rays, and went 3-2 with a 3.69 ERA in August. Against Kansas City, he's made five starts and one relief appearance in his career and has a 4.25 ERA against them.
So even though the Rangers' 14-6 record at Kauffman Stadium since 2008 gives them the highest winning percentage (.700) of any American League team at that park over that span, keep in mind last night's win evened the teams' season series, 3-3.
Look for Kansas City to pull off the shocker in this one, and be sure to list both.
1♦ KANSAS CITY