Matt Rivers
Yesterday I gave you a comp play winner on Seattle, and I will come right back with the Mariners in the underdog role tonight against Boston.
Let's face it, this season cannot end soon enough for the Red Sox who have now lost seven in a row on this road trip.
Boston has not endured an eight game losing streak in eleven years, but with Seattle on a 17-3 run at Safeco Field, there is a strong chance the BoSox will hit that magical eight game slide after tonight's nine innings.
Jon Lester will start for Boston, and he had a three start winning streak snapped his last trip to the hill. Seattle counters with Blake Beavan who is on a solid 5-2 run in his eight starts since the All-Star break.
Pitching at Safeco Field seems to be the right tonic for Seattle, as their staff sports a 2.30 ERA their last 20 games in the Emerald City.
At this price, I see no reason why you should not back the Mariners as they send the Red Sox to their first eight game losing streak since the 2001 season.
3♦ SEATTLE
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE +124 over Boston
Jon Lester is a superior to Blake Beavan. When Lester is on his game, he can be downright dominating. The quotable Yogi Berra said, “Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical” and that brings us to the current state of the Red Sox. Their collective minds are elsewhere. They’ve lost seven in a row and have been outscored 55-16 over that stretch. Boston has scored two runs or less in five straight. They’re 9-23 over their past 32 games and Jon Lester is right there with them.
Lester’s mind has been elsewhere practically the entire year. He’s 8-11 with a 5.01 ERA and his xERA over the past month is 5.81. He’s checked out also. He’s proven that he’s not going to be an intense pitcher with focus out there when his teammates aren’t giving it their all. Because of their state of mind, the Red Sox have become one of the most beatable clubs in the league.
Meanwhile, the Mariners continue to thrive. They’ve now won 13 of 19. After spending a month with AAA-Tacoma, Beavan returned to Seattle and has produced. In nine starts, he is 6-2 with a 3.90 (3.55 xERA) ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 58 IP. The Mariners don’t want the season to end. They’re coming to the park expecting to win. Their frame of mind gives them a much better chance to succeed while Boston’s frame of mind gives them a much better chance to fail. Boston is fade material, period.
Wunderdog
Milwaukee at Miami
Pick: Miami +100
I'm not sure which of these teams have had the more disappointing season. Both teams thought that they would be playing meaningful games come September, but such is not the case for either of them. Milwaukee had trouble winning on the road with a much better team a year ago. This year they have struggled even more at 24-41. Miami took the opener 7-3. Shaun Marcum was looking like a player to be dealt before the trade deadline, but his command has been off. Since coming off the DL he has not gotten an out after the fifth inning, and the Brewers' pen is awful. The Milwaukee pen has blown an amazing 26 saves on the season, worst in baseball, and that pen should see plenty of action in this one. Milwaukee is just 5-14 in Marcum's last 19 starts. Play on Miami.
MLB Predictions
Rockies / Braves Over 8
The Braves won the first game of this series yesterday with a 6-1 final score. The win moved Atlanta to 76-59 on the season (38-31 at home) and good for 2nd in the NL East. Colorado dropped to 55-78 on the season. Note that the Rockies have scored 8+ runs in 5 of their last 7 games. The Braves have scored 5+ runs in 3 of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 9. Rockies will send Drew Pomeranz to the mound who is 1-8 with a 5.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .261 opponents batting average. Although his home field is a hitter friendly park, Pomeranz has a slightly higher road ERA at 5.34. In August over 6 starts he posted a 5.40 ERA. Tommy Hanson will be on the rubber for Atlanta and he has had his struggles lately. He is 12-7 on the season with a 4.45 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and .275 opponents batting average, but in 6 July starts he had a 6.21 ERA and in 3 August starts (due to injury) he had a 5.74 ERA. In his latest outing he went just 4.2 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 earned runs. His ERA is a higher 4.81 ERA at home where opponents are hitting .295 against him. Take note that the OVER is 5-2-1 in Hanson's last 8 starts overall. The OVER is 8-2-1 in these two teams last 11 meetings, and 15-6-3 in their last 24 meetings in Atlanta. Considering the two pitchers we have on the mound and that neither team is really struggling scoring runs I like the value we have with this lower total at 8 - take the OVER.
Seattle Mariners +114
Seattle's 4-1 win yesterday marked the 7th straight loss for Boston as they fall to 62-74 on the season (30-36 on the road). Boston has scored just 16 runs in their last 7 games. The win for Seattle moved them to 66-70 on the season and 35-32 at home. Seattle is now 13-6 over their last 19 games overall, while the Red Sox are just 7-19 in their last 26 games. Jon Lester is on the mound for Boston and he is 8-11 on the year with a 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .273 opponents batting average. In his last outing he managed to last 8 innings but he gave up 9 hits and 5 earned runs. Blake Beavan is starting for Seattle and he is 9-8 on the year with 4.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .279 opponents batting average. In his last start he went 7 innings giving up just 5 hits and 2 earned runs. Beavan followed up a solid July where he held a 3.05 ERA with a pretty good August going 3-2 with a 4.38 ERA. Note that the Mariners are 11-10 in games where Beavan has started, while the Red Sox are just 11-16 in games Lester has started. The Red Sox are 0-8 in their last 8 road games, 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 6-21 in their last 27 vs AL West opponents, and 2-6 in Lester's last 8 starts as a favorite. The Mariners are 19-7 in their last 26 home games, 15-1 in their last 16 home games vs a team with a losing road record, and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a left handed starter. The Mariners are also 5-0 in Beavan's last 5 starts vs a team with a losing record, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts following a quality start in his last outing. Seattle is 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs Boston. The Red Sox have scored 2 or fewer runs in their last 5 games and have been downright bad lately. I will take Seattle who has played well at home and as of late overall as underdogs tonight.
New York Mets +138
St Louis won yesterday's opening game of the series 5-4. The Cardinals have won just 2 of their last 7 games, while the Mets are 7-2 in their last 9 games. Take note that the Cardinals have scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 7 games (all losses). Matt Harvey will be on the mound for New York and he has been stellar. Harvey is 3-3 on the season with a 2.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .197 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and he has struck out 23 batters. 5 of his 7 starts have been on the road this year, and he has a 2.97 ERA over those starts. Jaime Garcia is starting for St Louis and he is 3-6 on the season with a 4.52 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .299 opponents batting average. Although Garcia has pitched much better at home (3.10 ERA), overall he is having a rough year since a gerat April start. In the past three months his lowest monthly ERA is 4.66. Note that the Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 as an underdog, and 5-2 in their last 7 road games. The Cardinals are 0-5 in Garcia's last 5 starts and just 1-4 in his last 5 home starts. Tonight's play is backing a pitcher who has been exceptional as of late in front of a Mets team that has won 7 of their last 9. Take the Mets as underdogs.