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TOR (-160) vs TEXFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's roll out the Toronto Blue Jays -160 today as a top shelf free winner as the Texas Rangers are in a free fall. Cliff Lee injured, Hamilton has bad ribs and the Toronto Jays are hot with S Marcum on the bump. Let's keep hot on the diamond as the Jays make it to the winners circle again after tuning up the Rangers 7-2 last night. Macum checks in @ a smooth 11-7 and a 3.53 ERA. He has also spun a 1.95 ERA the last 4 games . The Vegas line -160 is set this high for a reason as the Jays are the sharp side tonight
Stan Lisowski
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ColoradoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies have dominated this series winning 14 of 17 overall while standing 16-3 at home against the Reds. As a host, Colorado is 44-22 this season. In game 2 of a series, they are 29-15 and 13-7 if off of a win. They are realistically very alive in the postseason race.
Wunderdog
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Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Texas Rangers
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Scott Feldman can pitch, evidenced by his 17-8 mark from a year ago, but he had problems and the Rangers tried to use him out of the bullpen to straighten them out. After two consecutive scoreless outings they feel he is ready to take the ball once again. Shaun Marcum has pitched relatively well, but has really been subjected to the long ball recently, serving up nine in his last six starts. It could be fatigue as Marcum sat out last year with an injury, and his innings are already the highest in his big league career. The Rangers bring in a 19-7 mark behind Feldman on the road with a high total, posted from 9-10.5. The Jays are just 1-6 when Marcum starts after making a quality start in his last outing. I'll go with Texas here.
SEAN MURPHY
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Texas Rangers are fading fast, losers of four games in a row and seven of their last nine overall.
Being a division-leader, and going up against a Blue Jays team that is out of contention, you would think the value would be with the Rangers in this spot, but I don't believe that's the case at all.
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Toronto hasn't shown any signs of going in the tank in September, particularly here at home. The Jays are coming off back-to-back wins in which they plated 14 runs, and are now eight games over .500 at Rogers Center, including 16-9 over their last 25 as hosts.
To say that Toronto has had Texas' number this season would be an understatement. The Jays are 6-1 against the Rangers, including a perfect 4-0 at home. Those four home victories have come by a 34-14 margin.
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Texas still owns a sizable lead in the West, so there's no need to panic just yet. With that in mind, the Jays are in excellent position to play spoiler again on Tuesday.
Scott Feldman will make his return to the Rangers rotation on Tuesday. He's been nursing a knee injury, and hasn't appeared in a game since August 21st. Feldman did make five appearances in August, and the results weren't pretty. He gave up 11 hits and nine runs, six of them earned, in just 10 2/3 innings of relief. He also posted an ugly 4:5 strikeout to walk ratio.
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In a starting role, opponents have hit .314 off of Feldman, and have connected for 15 home runs in 491 at-bats. That spells trouble on Tuesday as he prepares to face the homer-happy Blue Jays.
Toronto's current roster has had a great deal of success against Feldman, hitting a collective .293 while slugging .556. Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, Jose Bautista, and Fred Lewis (questionable for tonight's game) have all homered off of him.
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The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Shaun Marcum. He has been pitching extremely well lately, allowing a grand total of just six earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 28 innings of work. Over that stretch, Marcum has recorded a strong 22:5 strikeout to walk ratio.
Even in August, when Marcum managed only one victory in five starts, he still held opponents to a .230 batting average, and struck out 23 compared to just seven walks. You have to like the fact that he's posted a winning record at home, on the road, in daytime starts, and under the lights. All the guy does is turn in quality starts and win ball games.
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The Rangers have hit Marcum to the tune of a .298 average and .632 slugging percentage, but we're talking about a fairly small sample size of only 57 at-bats. In Marcum's lone start against them this season he allowed just two hits and three earned runs over seven innings in a narrow 5-4 Opening Day loss in Arlington.
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The Jays are listed as significant favorites for a reason on Tuesday. They dominated the series opener, and given the poor form displayed by the Rangers lately, they're in good position to notch their third straight win tonight. Take Toronto.
TEDDY COVERS
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Royals @ Twins
Pick: Twins -1.5
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The Twins have been giving Francisco Liriano extra rest over the last month, and the results have been nothing short of spectacular. Instead of going every five days, Liriano has started only once a week since early August. He’s 6-0 with a 2.17 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 58 innings since the All Star break. Liriano’s quote about the extra rest: “I feel way better.”
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Liriano dominated the Royals in his lone previous start against them this year, throwing seven shutout innings while allowing only three baserunners. He’s also thrown seven scoreless innings in three of his last four starts at Target Field. Facing a KC squad that has lost nine of their last eleven on the highway, expect continued success from the Twins ace tonight.
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Brian Bannister is on the other end of the pitching spectrum from Liriano. He’s coming off the DL after missing the last month with rotator cuff tendinitis, following an 0-6 mark in his previous seven starts. Bannister has the second highest ERA in the majors for a pitcher with at least 20 starts this year. He’s also 1-5 with a 6.35 ERA in his last eight tries against Minnesota. His strict pitch count tonight will allow ample opportunity for Twins fireworks against KC’s suspect bullpen, making the run line the preferred choice here. 2* Take Minnesota (Run Line) .
MATT FARGO
Astros @ Cubs
PICK: Over 9
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We are looking at three over/under reports for tonight and all three contain a good amount of value based on the contrarian way of looking at them. We are going with the ‘Over’ between the Astros and Cubs. Because this game is in Wrigley Field, the number could be jumping around all day based on the wind situation and honestly the higher it goes, the better it could be as it would be to our advantage.
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The first game of this series on Monday stayed ‘Under’ and that has been a common theme for Astros games. Houston has gone 14-1 to the ‘Under’ over its last 15 games and 18-3 to the ‘Under’ over its last 21 games so we are getting value based on that alone. The pitching has been the big reason as it has been outstanding but that could change tonight against a Cubs offense that has been scoring a lot as of late.
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The Cubs have averaged 6.6 rpg over their last eight games and on the flip side, the pitching has been giving up just as many scores. Only five of those games have gone ‘Over’ though and the ‘Over’ is 5-1 in the Cubs last six games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
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Houston sends Nelson Figueroa to the hill and he has been extremely solid since getting put into the starting rotation. He has allowed two runs or fewer in all four of his starts and to no surprise, all four of those games have stayed below the number. All that does for us is increase the value as trend players will be hitting the ‘Under’ to come in again.
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Carlos Silva is back on the mound after being on the disabled list for a rapid heartbeat. He started the season great but faltered prior to his condition and he was just average in a couple minor league rehab assignments. He is rested which is a good thing but it is a tough spot to come back into and there is a good possibility his pitch count will be limited. That is not good for the Cubs whose bullpen has a 5.28 ERA on the season which is second worst in all of baseball. 3* Over Houston Astros/Chicago Cubs
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Reds vs. Rockies
Play: Under 9
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So far so good for the Reds who continue to hold off the slumping Cards in the NL Central. Tonight, Cinncy's Johnny Cueto toes the rubber and he's 1-0 with a nasty 1.29 ERA in his last two starts. The Rockies counter with Chacin who is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his L3 as Colorado (11-4 L15) starts its anual late run. Both pitchers have yet to be seen by tonight's opposing lineups so the starters should have the upper hand through at least six innings. If starters form hold and pens do not implode, runs will be hard to come by and this one sails under the total.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
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Colorado has saved their best for last this season. The Rockies are making a major push in the NL West division after going 11-4 in their last 15 games overall. That includes 4 straight wins over San Diego and Cincinnati. I like Colorado's chances to extend their winning streak to 5 games tonight with Jhoulys Chacin on the mound, who is 7-8 with a 3.35 ERA as a starter this year. Chacin has really come up big for the Rockies in his last three outings, going 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.950 WHIP. He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings while striking out 19 in those 3 starts.
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This has been a very one-sided series over the past few seasons as well. Over the last 3 years, Colorado is 14-3 in 17 meetings with the Reds. That includes a 7-1 mark at Coors Field after last night's 10-5 victory. Colorado is now 44-22 at home this season, hitting .302 and scoring 6.0 RPG. The Reds are 0-4 in Cueto's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 42-16 in their last 58 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet Colorado Tuesday.
Info Plays
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3* on Washington Nationals -142
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Reasons the Nationals win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY METS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games. This is a 68-16 ML System hitting 81% over the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 15-0 this season.
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2.) Two starters make their major league debut in this one, and the Nationals' Yunesky Maya has had the better success in the minors. Maya has posted a 3.38 ERA in his time at three different minor league levels, while Mets' starter Dillon Gee sports a 4.96 ERA in 28 starts down in the minors this year. Washington has scored 45 runs in their last 5 games, or an average of 9.0 RPG. Bet the Nationals at home.
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -130
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The Reds have dropped 3 of their last 4 on the road, and they will have their work cut out for themselves in Colorado tonight. Cincy has lost 18 of its last 23 overall against the Rockies and 20 of its last 26 at Coors. The Rockies have been getting the job done at home all season, and they are now 75-36 in their last 111 games as a home favorite. I like the Rockies to continue their dominance over the Reds behind Chacin, who is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.90 over his last 3 starts. Cueto is on the bump for the Reds, and they are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Rockies at home tonight.
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +113
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Energized by a series win over first place Cincy, look for the Cards to continue to role tonight. The Brewers have dropped 6 of their last 7 games overall and they have dropped 5 in a row at home to teams with winning records. Looking back further, they are just 1-10 in their last 11 when playing a team with a winning mark. Milwaukee has also lost 7 of its last 8 at home against the Red Birds. Take the Cards.
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1* on Boston Red Sox +102
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If Boston wants any chance of catching the Rays for the Wild Card spot, they know they have to sweep Tampa in this series. They're off to a good start with a dominant 12-5 home win in Game 1, handing Tampa Bay their third straight loss. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 9-4 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.318 WHIP this year, and every time he takes the mound he gives his team a great chance to win. The Red Sox have been victorious in 65% of his starts in 2010. Plus, he tends to get stronger as the season goes on as Matsuzaka is 25-8 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Tampa is 4-18 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 1-13 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the Red Sox on the Money Line.
Dan Bebe
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WAS (-142) vs NYM
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I simply can't go against the Nationals right now.
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This team is in the midst of one of the hottest offensive runs in franchise history, scoring over 80 runs in the last 11 games, including another double-digit effort last night. I mean, they are just crushing!
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Both teams are starting guys for the first time, which means we might see some adjustments being made over the first 4-5 innings, but with the way the Mets pen has been getting shellacked of late, and how relentless the Nationals offense has been, this isn't that steep a price to pay to get the team putting up RBI Baseball-esque numbers on offense.
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Washington got a long relief effort from Scott Olsen last night, so all the relevant bullpen arms are healthy, and if they take a lead into the late innings, we're in good shape.
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As far as the starters go, we don't know a ton about them, though the Mets hurler put up an ERA over 4 in the Minors. He was a strikeout guy, which the Mets like, but the fact that he was hit a bit makes me think Washington will get a few licks. On the Washington side, they bring up a kid that didn't see much action at Triple-A before getting called up, which means they're very confident in the youngster and want to see him on the hill for the Big League club.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: San Francisco Giants
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San Francisco continues to fight for its playoff life and won 2-0 in extra innings over Arizona yesterday. Today, Tim Lincecum and Barry Enright will be mound opponents for the third time since July 25, having split a pair. Lincecum was sharp in last outing breaking recent slump, but the D-Backs Enright is a ground ball inducing machine and is 6-2 with 2.45 ERA this season. The Giants have done little with Enright in the two times they have faced him, scoring two total runs, in spite of ranking 14th in batting average at .259 and 17th in runs scored at 4.4 per game.
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For today, look to Play On clubs when the money line is +125 to -125, with team batting average between .255 to .269, against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.00 or lower), playing on Tuesday. This MLB system delivers results at 38-12, including 10-2 this year.