Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August, 1

Marc Lawrence

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Miami Marlins

When Wade LeBlanc takes the mound for the Marlins in Atlanta Wednesday evening the left hander will will do so knowing he is 4-1 with a1.45 ERA in his last five away team starts. With the Fish 6-3 all-time against Ben Sheets, including 4-2 away, look for LeBlanc to take advantage of his 'born-again' opportunity in the Marlins' starting lineup here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Vegas Experts

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Tigers and Red Sox close the three-game set with Rick Porcello (7-5, 4.40) and Aaron Cook (2-3, 3.50) on respective mounds. Red Sox look primed for the series sweep as they haven’t been kind to Tigers with Porcello on the mound. The hurler is 0-2 in three starts against Boston with a 10.80 ERA and Tigers have lost all three meetings. Look for Red Sox to strike early and often as they move to a smart 12-2 against A.L. Central opponent and 9-1 hosting Tigers.

Matt Fargo

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

After getting thumped on Monday, the Pirates responded with a win last night behind another strong pitching performance from A.J. Burnett. Despite going 10-4 over their last 14 games, they have actually lost ground to the Reds in the National League Central because they are even hotter. Pittsburgh is three games back of Cincinnati and this is an important series finale as the Pirates have three games on deck against the Reds. The Pirates are 17-6 in their last 23 games as favorites between -110 and -150. The Cubs exploded for 14 runs Monday but were shutout last night as the inconsistent offense remains the big issue. Chicago is hitting only .204 over its last 10 games and it has scored three runs or fewer in six of those. Chicago still does possess a winning record at home as it has been playing a lot better but the matchup is not in its favor today and we are catching a good price going the other way. The Cubs are 6-16 in their last 22 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Ever since a bad start in Philadelphia in late June, Jeff Karstens has been very solid as he has tossed three quality outings over his last five starts, posting a 2.65 ERA over that stretch. He is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA in his last five starts against the Cubs and while his pitching on the road this season has been less than stellar, pitching here can revive him. He has a 2.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five starts at Wrigley Field and the Pirates are 4-1 in Karstens' last five starts as a favorite. The Cubs pitching has been some of the worst in baseball and with the departure of Ryan Dempster, it is only going downhill. Travis Wood takes the hill and it has been a disappointing season, his first with the Cubs. He was actually throwing very well prior to the All-Star break as he had a 3.05 ERA but he has blown up since then, posting a 12.64 ERA in three starts since then. He has allowed eight runs in each of his last two home starts and the Cubs are 1-4 in his last five starts as an underdog between +110 and +150.

Rob Vinciletti

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees fit a solid Dominator system today that plays on certain home favorites with a total of 8.5 or more that scored 5 or more runs as a home favorites of -140 or higher, vs an opponent off a 5 or more run road dog win and scored 10 or more runs with 1 error. These home teams are winning by nearly 4 runs per game. The Yankees bolted out to a big lead and then were caught by Baltimore lat night and have now lost 4 straight. Today the streak will come to an end as Z. Britton for the Orioles has a 5.74 era over his last 3 and has allowed 13 runs in a shade over 5 innings here at Yankees stadium. Hughes foe New York has won 8 of 11 at home and has a 2.91 era in his last three. With the Yankees scoring over 5 runs per game both at home and vs Lefthanders. We will back them today on the run line.

Chris Elliott

Baltimore vs. NY Yankees
Pick: Over

The Baltimore Orioles square off against the New York Yankees in the Bronx Wednesday afternoon. The Orioles have won the first 2 games of this 3 game set and New York will be looking to avoid the home sweep in this one.

The Orioles will send 24 year old sophmore Zach Britton to the hill with a record of 1-0, 5.74 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 3 starts this season after coming off the 60 day DL with shoulder issues. In Britton's rookie campaign in 2011 he was a decent 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.45 WHIP pitching for the lowly Orioles in the AL East. He made 2 starts in New York last year lasting a mere 5.1 innings combined while allowing 10 earned runs for a whopping ERA of 16.87! In 16 career road starts for Britton, the "Over" has hit 10-4-2.

The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes with a record of 10-8, 4.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He is a solid RH power pitcher with 107 Ks in 121.1 innings this season. His downfall is he tends to leave the ball up in the zone and has allowed a mind shattering 25 HRs already this season for an average of 1.85 HRs per 9 innings! He has allowed 6 HRs and 6 walks in his last 3 starts. This could be troublesome for Hughes facing an Orioles team that has hit the 3rd most HRs in MLB this season with 128!

The Yankees will be hungry after losing 2 straight and will look to take it out on Britton. Britton gave up 2 HR and 6 earned runs to Oakland over 5.2 innings his last time out. The Yankees lead the MLB with 163 HR on the season and will be looking to add to that total Wednesday afternoon!

Look for this game to be a slugfest and take the "Over" to win.

Jesse Schule

NY Mets vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

The Giants snapped a five game losing streak at home last night, when they knocked off the Mets in Game 2 of their four game series. The two teams are now deadlocked at a game a piece, coming into Game 3 tonight.

Matt Cain will get the start for the Giants, looking to bounce back from a loss his last time out. Cain (10-3, 2.80 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits over seven innings in a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers. He hasn't been that sharp over his last five starts, with a record of just 1-1, and giving up seven home runs in that stretch. I expect Cain to bounce back though, and get the job done in his home ballpark, where he is 5-2 with a 2.13 ERA so far this season.

The Mets will send Jonathon Niese to the mound tonight, coming off a horrible outing in his last start. Niese (7-5, 3.86 ERA) got torched for eight runs on nine hits, in just six innings, losing 11-5 to Arizona. He is now winless in his last four starts, and looking at the way some of the Giants have hit him in the past, he is likely going to remain that way after tonight.

Melkey Cabrera has gone 4 for 9, with a double against him, Buster Posey is 3 for 6 with a pair of doubles, and Pablo Sandoval is 3 for 7, hitting .429 against the lefty.

The Giants will welcome Hunter Pence to the lineup tonight, and they should earn a victory over the Mets in this one.

Freddy Wills

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play; Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays will take on the Mariners led by Carlos Villanueva who is 3-0 in his last three starts posting a 1.15 WHIP and a 2.60 ERA. He's been great on the road posting a 2.85 ERA on the road. His raw stats are great with 9.49 K/9 with the only reason why his ERA is not better is the walks and the HR/9. Well the Mariners are a perfect opponent for that ranked 25th in HR and 19th in BB's. The Mariners are 30th in OPS overall vs. RHP. I think Villanueva is primed to have another quality start against the Mariners who are 16-36 in their last 52 vs. the AL East and 3-8 in their last 11 vs. the Blue Jays.

They also go up against Blake Beavan who is only striking out 4.77 guys per 9. He's gotten by with great control, but I'm not sold on him as he's giving up 1.30 HR/9 and he does not produce many ground balls while posting a 4.83 ERA at home. Encarnacion, Lind and Rasmus are a combined 7-14 with 4 HR off Beavan as they certainly will not miss Jose Bautista in this one. Bevan will struggle and Villanueva will then go 7-0 in his last 7 as a favorite.

Notable Hot Starters:
Cliff Lee (1-2, 0.95 WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (1-2, 1.26 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Ben Sheets (3-0, 1.00 WHIP, 0.50 ERA)
Jake Westbrook (2-1, 1.08 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
Phil Hughes (2-1, 0.88 WHIP, 2.91 ERA)
Zach McAllister (2-1, 1.15 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Texas Rangers starter Yu Darvish who goes up against the hot hitting Angels. I only select him because he's been one of the rare pitchers that have pitched well in the Rangers ballpark posting a 3.88 ERA. In 69 AB he's also held the Angels hitters to a .174 average and a .572 OPS.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jordan Lyles (0-3, 1.70 WHIP, 7.13 ERA)
Travis Wood (0-3, 1.91 WHIP, 12.64 ERA)
Drew Pomeranz (0-3, 1.80 WHIP, 10.12 ERA)
Garret Richards (2-1, 1.65 WHIP, 6.06 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Cubs have not been bad lately, but they were nearly no-hit on Tuesday. Jeff Karstens can be had, but he's a safer option than struggling Travis Wood right now. I'll side with the Pirates to close out this series with the win.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

Wednesday free play: D-Backs at Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Minor leaguer Pat Corbin has been called up to take the spot of Josh Collmenter in tonight's contest. Arizona is very high on this young pitcher who looked great in the preseason. Corbin had a 1.67 ERA with 25 strikeouts and eight walks in 27 innings in Mobile. The Dodgers are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and the Diamondbacks are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Play Arizona.

Scott Spreitzer

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

Houston enters having won just 3 of their last 27 games and 17 of their last 24 losses have come by at least two runs. Young righty Jordan Lyles has truly struggled in his last five road starts, posting a hefty 8.89 ERA & 2.14 WHIP and his team lost all five games. Lyles will face a Brewer lineup that plates 5.2 rpg in home day games against righthanders. Mike Fiers gets the start for the Brewers and he's allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 40 innings of work. He's been spectacular at home and should receive decent offensive help from a team that's averaged nearly 6 rpg in their last eight outings. Houston is on a 4-24 slide with Lyles and they're 1-15 in his last 16 road starts. Meanwhile, the Brewers are on a 25-3 run as a favorite of more than -2.00. Obviously, I need to win by at least two runs and I believe Milwaukee will do so. I'm laying the Run Line with the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon.

MTI Sports

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

The Angels are 0-13 since 2011 on the road at night vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. Consider a play on the Rangers.

Ross King

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh and Atlanta are tied among the top wildcard spot as the Pirates trail Cincinnati by 3 games coming into today.Yesterday at the trade deadline the Pirates picked up Gaby Sanchez,Chad Qualls,and last week added Wandy Rodriquez.All the Cubs did was watch Dempster,Soto,Johnson,and Malholm leave.Starter Wood for the Cubs was fantastic with an e.r.a of one before the All Star Game since he has lost his last 3 games with an e.r.a of 12.64.Karstens for the Pirates is dr.Jeykll and Mr. Hyde given up 0 runs in 15 innings and then given up 8 runs in 12 innings.Karstens is 2-2 versus the Cubs with a 3.21 e.r.a in his last 5 against them but none of those starts this year.Take Pittsburgh who have 78 homers to lead the National Leauge since June 1 as they remember their epic collapse in August of last year 8-22 that killed their post season dreams and take advantage of a weak Cubs team and start August with more passion.

Tony Stoffo

Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Under 10

Money, bio analysis and trends all point towards a lower scoring game here with Britton matching up with Hughes here today - making for a highly recommended play on the Under in this spot. Under is 10-1 in Orioles last 11 during game 3 of a series. Under is 10-2 in Orioles last 12 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Under is 9-2 in Yankees last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game Under is 23-9 in Yankees last 32 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +113 over Chicago

As August rolls in and those innings pitched begin to take their toll, it’s a good time to fade pitchers that it could potentially affect most.

Jake Peavy has been on the DL each of the past four years. He has over 1700 career innings and he’s up to 140 this season. He’s been hit hard in four of his past six starts and overall, the White Sox have lost six of his past eight starts. Peavy has elite control with just 29 walks in those 140 IP. However, he also has a disturbing 36%/45% groundball/fly-ball split. Peavy has been tagged for 26 hits and three jacks over his last 20 innings and his 4.95 ERA over that span could be signs of arm fatigue.

Scott Diamond took the loss in his only start versus the White Sox this season while visiting Chicago on May 23. He deserved better with just two runs allowed. Diamond has been outstanding at home, where he is 6-4 in 11 starts with a 2.84 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and an elite 57% groundball rate in 73 IP. Note the early start.

Tampa Bay +116 over OAKLAND

Props go out to the Rays for a nice rebound win after losing in 15 innings the previous night. In that Monday marathon, Oakland batters walked 10 times, left 20 on base and scored just three runs. They also struck out 21 times and last night they were shut out. For the better part of the past month the A’s bats all caught fire at the same time but this is a team that ranks dead last in the majors with a team batting average of .224. It was only a matter of time before they reverted back to their light-hitting ways.

Alex Cobb has a 4.93 ERA and a 4-8 record after 12 starts, which has allowed him to fly under the radar. Cobb's rough start hides his considerable talent. With some better fortune along with his strong skills, he instantly becomes a nice second half sleeper. His xERA is 3.53. Cobb has one of the best groundball rates in the majors at 60%. His control and strikeout rates are above average while continuing to improve.

Jarrod Parker is 7-4 with a 3.38 ERA but unlike Cobb, Parker’s surface stats should be heading south. Behind Parker's 3.38 ERA are underwhelming skills that include a 39% groundball rate, 43 walks in 104 frames and an xERA of 4.42. Parker is very hittable and just like many other starters this time of year with misleading stats, his luck is bound to run out.