Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Indians -103
The Tribe has the edge on the mound with Zach McAllister, who's 4-2 (7-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.18. Kansas City's Luis Mendoza is 3-6 (5-8 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.46. The Royals, who are 18-30 at home, have dropped 5 of Mendoza's 7 home starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.60. McAllister has a solid 3.37 road ERA. The Royals took care of business yesterday, but they're just 7-21 in their last 28 overall and 0-7 in their last 7 games following a win. They've also lost 4 of their last 5 at home to the Indians. Take Cleveland.
Lenny Del Genio
Detroit vs. Boston
Pick: Detroit
We caught a bad break last night with the Tigers as the game was called due to rain when they had the bases loaded in the top of the sixth. As a result, Boston has now won four games in a row for the 1st time in nearly two months. Look for that run to come to an end Wednesday night as the Red Sox have still dropped a ton vs. righties here at Fenway and their own starter, Aaron Cook, has been very sub-par throughout the season. Boston's losses vs. righties currently total -$1740 at home and the Tigers will throw out Rick Porcello, who has a 17-9 TSR in road games the L2 seasons. Meanwhile, Boston's Cook has allowed 11 runs - nine of them earned - his L2 starts. Both teams have lost significant money this year, but we see Detroit avoiding the sweep.
Larry Ness
LA Angels vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
The Angels have taken the first two games of this important four-game series with the Rangers and have closed within three games in the AL West, percentage points ahead of the A’s However. winning a third straight seems like too much of an uphill battle, as the Rangers go with Yu Darvish and the Angels counter with Garrett Richards instead of Dan Haren, who is still dealing with stiffness in his right side.
Darvish has not been great in his three post-All Star break starts but is 7-2 with a 3.88 ERA in nine home starts this season. Darvish is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts against Los Angeles this season, including a 9-2 win on July 21 in Anaheim, allowing just two runs and three hits over seven innings. Richards has a 1.59 ERA with two no-decisions in two career starts against Texas (both in 2011) but the Angels lost both games. The Texas Rangers are feeling the ‘heat’ and with the acquisition Greinke by the Angels for the stretch run, know a win here over a young pitcher like Richards is almost a MUST! I’m taking the home team.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY (9-0 LAST 9)
MILWAUKEE -1.5 (-120) over Houston: Who is this guy Mike Fiers? He has been awesome of late with an 0.77 ERA in his last 7 starts, while going 3-2. He is just 2-3 at home but with a solid 2.33 ERA. He has never faced Houston and that should give him and edge in this one. He will be taking on a Houston team that is just 3-27 in their last 30 games, losing 17 of those games by 2 or more runs. Houston has really struggled to score over that stretch as they have put up 3 runs or less in 22 of those games. That is Key as the Astros are just 6-16 vs the RL in those last 22 games when they have scored 3 runs or less, plus when Jordan Lyles is on the mound on the road the Astros as a team have allowed 7.5 rpg. Jordan has really struggled this year, with a 2-7 mark and a 5.54 ERA overall, while on the road he is 0-5 with a 6.97 ERA. The Astros are 0-8 in his road starts and have been outscored by a 34-9 count in his last 5 away from home, losing each one of those starts by at least 4 runs. Jordan has faced the Brewers twice in his career and while he has a 2.76 ERA in the two starts, Houston has still lost both games by 2+ runs. Milwaukee has a solid offense at home, averaging 5.33 rpg and they have put up 15 runs in the first 2 games of this series. I really see no reason why they can't hit 5 or 6 in this one and that will make us golden as I just don't see Houston putting up more than 3 runs off Fiers. I say Milwaukee by 4+ in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since April 2011 Houston is 4-32 SU when seeking immediate revenge for a multiple-run loss in which they allowed at least 5 walks and they starter lasted more than 3 Innings. Vs the RL Houston is 10-26 overall and just 3-15 in the last 18 in this spot.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
OAKLAND -123 over Tampa Bay: Google News Play Neither starter has been impressive of late as Cobb has a 6.25 ERA in his last 6 starts, while Parker has a 6.46 ERA in his last 4 starts, but the difference is that the A's are 3-1 in Parker's last 4 starts, while the Rays are 1-5 in Cobb's last 6 starts. Alex is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA on the road and will be facing an agry Oakland team that cannot be happy about getting shut out last night. Despite the shutout last night the A;s have still averaged 5.9 rpg in their last 10 games and should have good success vs Cobb today. Despite Parker's recent struggles he is still having a good year. He has allowed 1 ER or less in 8 of his last 12 games and he has allowed 2 ER's or less in 8 of his 9 home starts this year. A closer look shows how impressive he has been at home as he has allowed just 1 ER each to the Yanks, Boston, Angels and White Sox, while allowing 0 ER's to Texas and just 2 ER's to Detroit. A very good collection of offenses there. Oakland lost last night, but they haven't lost two in a row since late June and they will keep that streak alive with a big win here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2009 the A's are 22-5 off a loss in which they drew at least 1 walk.
St Louis -132 over COLORADO: I went with the Cards last night and will come right back with them tonight. Last night St Louis had a solid pitching edge and I feel they have another one tonight. Jake Westbrook has been solid this year, at 9-8 with a 3.61 ERA overall, while on the road he is 3-5, but with a good 3.19 ERA. In his last 8 starts the Cards are 6-2 and he has a 2.78 ERA over those starts. Jake is also 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Rockies. Drew Pomeranz has not been impressive this year, going 1-6 with a 4.99 ERA overall and 0-4 with a 4.31 ERA at home, plus he has gone 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA at night. Not god numbers when you're about to face this offense. The Cards put up 11 runs last night and they have now averaged 6.4 rpg in their last 10 games. St Louis also hits left-handed pitching well as they have an average of .277 and scored 5.39 rp/ 9 off of them this year. What's even more impressive is the fact that they have hit .324 and have averaged 8.72 rp/ 9 off of southpaws in their last 10 games. We all know that Colorado can score at home, but despite putting up 6 runs last night they have still scored just 3.9 rpg in their last 12 games at home. St Louis is chasing a wild card spot again this year and can't afford to drop games like these, especially since the Rockies are just 20-33 at home this year, including 2-10 in their last 12 here. give St Louis another win here.
POWER ANGLES FOR TONIGHT (15-3 RUN) (24-11 +10.21 UNITS)
The Phillies are 47-13 since July 2010, when they are off a win in which their hitters stranded at least 18 men and they were not a dog of +180 in that win. Play On Philadelphia +122 over Washington
In August play on road teams when the line is +125 to -125 if their pen threw less than 2 innings in each of their last 3 games. This play is 33-14 the last 5 seasons. Play On Detroit +102 over Boston
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -129
The Cards are playing well with 8 wins in their last 11 games, and I expect them to keep rolling against a Colorado club they have defeated 5 times in the last 6 meetings. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter, and they'll have an excellent chance to get to Pomeranz, who is 1-5 on the money line in his last 6 starts. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter, and they figure to have it tough against Westbrook, who is 6-2 on the money line in his last 8 starts. Cash in with the Cards.
Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners +105
Despite being realistically out of playoff contention, the Seattle Mariners continue to show up every day. They have won five straight and eight of their last 10 overall. Seattle should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays at home tonight.
Blake Beavan has posted a 1.253 WHIP over 15 starts this season for the Mariners, allowing 92 hits and 12 walks over 83 innings. The right-hander has been dominant in his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.774 WHIP. He has given up just two earned runs and nine base runners over 14 2/3 innings in his last two outings.
Beavan is a very profitable 8-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a Seattle win this season. The Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Mariners are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Toronto is 6-13 in the last 19 meetings in Seattle. Bet the Mariners Wednesday.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +115
I'm riding the red-hot Braves here. They have won 7 in a row, and 5 of their last 6 wins have come by at least 2 runs. They should keep right on rolling with Ben Sheets on the mound. He's 3-0 with an ERA of 0.50 in 3 starts this season with the Braves winning those games by at least 4 runs. The Marlins have dropped 10 of their last 13 with 8 of those defeats coming by 2 runs or more. Bet Atlanta on the run line.
WUNDERDOG SPORTS
Tampa Bay at Oakland
Pick: Tampa Bay +115
The Oakland A's have been a hot team and playing over their head. There are certainly signs that things are starting to change, as they are just 3-3 in their last six games. More importantly the A's have allowed 37 runs in those six games, or more than 6 per contest while the offense was shutout here last night. Tampa Bay has won their last two series, and the pitching has been outstanding, recording three shutouts in the last four games. Overall, the Rays' staff has allowed a stingy 22 runs in their last 12 games, or less than 2 per contest. The pitching has allowed them to win on the road to low totals, now 6-1 with a total of 7 to 8.5 in their last seven on the road. Play this one on Tampa Bay.
Matt Rivers
Your Wednesday free play is the Under in the Miami-Atlanta contest.
Wade LeBlanc is making his first start of the season for Miami, as he is filling in for the ineffective Carlos Zambrano. LeBlanc is 1-1 this season out of the bullpen with a 1.15 ERA, but he has starting experience from his days pitching in a San Diego uniform.
This game really boils down to the reborn Ben Sheets hanging a few more zeroes on the board, as the Atlanta starter has now made three starts totaling 18 innings, and he has allowed just one earned run to score.
All three of Sheets' starts in 2012 have ended up holding Under the total.
The Under is now 11-5 between these teams when they meet at Turner Field, and I am banking on LeBlanc to make a successful start, and for Sheets to turn in another stellar outing for the Bravos.
Going to go Under on Wednesday night in the Miami-Atlanta contest.
3♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is for the series finale between the Rays and the A's to hold Under the total.
The first two games in this three game set have each made their way Over the posted total, but I see the finale ending up on the low side this afternoon in the Bay Area.
Day game after a night game tends to yield strong pitching and some tired bats.
Both Alex Cobb and Jarrod Parker sport some bloated ERA's of late - Cobb at 5.11 for his last three starts, Parker at 5.21 for his last three efforts - but with Tampa Bay still on an overall 9-3 Under clip their last dozen games, I am going to look for both Cobb and Parker to settle in and find a groove in this mid-day affair, and for the pitching to dominate the hitting.
I say to play the Under in the finale today, as I see a 3-2 final in the cards for this Rays-A's game.
2♦ UNDER
Dom Chambers
Today’s free pick are the Oakland A’s to beat the Tampa Bay Rays.
Jarrod Parker gets the start for the A’s and he is 7-4 with a 3.37 ERA. At home, his ERA is 2.28.
Alex Cobb starts for the Rays, and he is 4-8 with a 4.93 ERA. But in this last three starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.11 ERA. In two of those games, he did not get out of the third inning.
The A’s have been one of the hotter teams in the league, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Rays have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games.
I expect a bounce-back game from the A’s after dropping the second game of the series.
Take the A’s.
2♦ OAKLAND
Chris Jordan
My free pick run is now at 27-14, and tonight I'm laying the cheap chalk with the favored Washington Nationals, as they rebound from last night's 8-0 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. Go ahead and list both Vance Worley and Edwin Jackson in this one, as there are some contributing factors that lead me to Jackson tonight.
It looks as if the Phillies have shaken off the mental distractions off the field, after dealing Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence yesterday, and they can now get on with their season. But that doesn't mean the pitching is going to improve anytime soon. And the Nationals are going to be a pissed off team tonight, after being shut out on their own field last night.
The Nationals come into August after ranking fourth in the month of July with a .280 batting average. Tonight they'll get a crack at Worley, who is 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA in his last five starts, while opponents are hitting .353 with a .954 on-base-plus-slugging percentage against him.
I'd much rather side with Jackson, who has a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts and will be out for revenge for an earlier-season loss to the Phils, in a game he pitched well enough to win.
List both and take the Nationals.
2♦ WASHINGTON
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +102 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello is not fooling many hitters this season but his base skills continue to improve. He has a 53% groundball rate and an unlucky and low strand rate of 60% over the past month. Porcello has a strong history in the final two months of the year, going 14-7 in his career in 33 starts with a BAA of .249. However, this isn’t about wagering on Porcello.
Aaron Cook is a stiff. He has four strikeouts in 40 innings. Two of those strikeouts were against Adam Dunn, who strikes out more than any other player on Earth. Cook is a guy that has allowed more home runs than he has strikeouts, which is an absolutely incredible statistic that demonstrates just how bad Aaron Cook is.
So, forget that the Red Sox are very warm at the moment. Cook is an inevitable implosion waiting to happen and chances are the Tigers bats tee off on this guy.