Marc Lawrence
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Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies resume their series with the Mets when they send Jeff Francis to the hill against Jonathon Niese at Citi Field in New York this evening. Francis takes the mound in solid KW form with two walks and 23 strikeouts in his last four starts. He's also cashed in 12 of his last 16 team starts during the month of August. With Niese 0-2 with a 7.17 ERA n his career team starts against Colorado, look for the Mets to fall to 1-6 in Neise's last seven starts here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.
Rob Vinciletti
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Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Play: Colorado Rockies
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The Mets fit a nice negative system that plays on home favorites off low scoring home dog wins. New York has been horrendous when playing off 1 exact win since Late June losing their last 14 times in this role. The Rockies are still averaging 5 runs per game over the past week, compared to the Mets who are scoring just 2.4 runs on .229 hitting. Look for Colorado to even the series tonight.
Jim Feist
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Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Take: Oakland Athletics
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A managerial change is not going to help this dreadful Seattle offense. And it won't help to face Dallas Braden of Oakland, who walks few batters and has a 3.75 ERA. He has already shut down the Mariners once this season, with a 1.29 ERA fanning 10 with 1 walk in 7 innings, just 4 hits allowed. Seattle starter Luke French has a 4.73 ERA on the season and a 5.84 ERA all time against Oakland. Play the Oakland A's.
Tom Freese
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Red Sox at Blue Jays
Prediction: Under
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Boston starter Clay Buchholz has allowed 3 or less runs in 12 of his last 13 starts. The Red Sox are 6-2-2 UNDER their last 10 road games vs. righty starters. Boston is 3-1-2 UNDER their last 6 games and they are 4-1 UNDER with Buchholz his last 5 road starts vs. the Blue Jays. Toronto starter Shaun Marcum has a 18-2 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays are 5-1 UNDER on Wednesday and they are 4-1 UNDER when their opponent allows 5 or more runs in their last game.
Steve Merril
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Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Diamondbacks
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The Diamondbacks are playing good baseball right now having won two straight games and five of their last six games overall. They'll turn to new acquisition Daniel Hudson on Wednesday night. Hudson is 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA in two starts since joining the Diamondbacks. Hudson has struck out eight and walked three while holding batters to a .113 average. Only George Kotteras (0-1) has seen Hudson before for Milwaukee. The Brewers are 27-30 at home this season while hitting just .252 as a team there. They may be without Corey Hart and Ryan Braun for another game and both are important pieces of their lineup.
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Milwaukee’s Dave Bush has a hard time being consistent as a starting pitcher. He's 5-9 with a 4.49 ERA in 22 starts this season. The righty has given up 12 runs and 23 hits over his last 17 innings of work. Bush hasn't faced the Diamondbacks yet this season. Adam LaRoche (5-18), Chris Young (5-15), Stephen Drew (6-14), Mark Reynolds (5-13), Kelly Johnson (3-9), and Augie Ojeda (3-8) have good career numbers against Bush. With Arizona in good current form and Bush being so erratic, we’ll recommend a play on the Diamondbacks plus the generous price in this game tonight.
EZWINNERS
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Chicago White Sox -172
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The Twins send lefty Glen Perkins to the mound to make his first major league start of the season, taking the place of Kevin Slowey, who had his start pushed back. After beginning the season with some struggles at Triple-A Rochester, Perkins has put together five quality starts in his last seven outings in the minors but to me he is a Triple-A pitcher at best. I expect the White Sox to be able to knock him around in this games. The White Sox send their own lefty John Danks to the mound for this game. Danks has pitched pretty well this season but doesn't have the wins to show for it usually because of poor run support by the Sox. I don't expect run support to be a problem in this game and I expect Danks to pick up a win for the first time in three starts. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight home games against a left handed starter. Play on Chicago.
DUNKEL INDEX
Arizona at Milwaukee
The Diamondbacks look to follow up their 2-1 win yesterday and take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. Arizona is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115)
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.460; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.031
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under
Game 953-954: Atlanta at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.429; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.814
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Over
Game 955-956: Florida at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 14.299; Washington (Olsen) 14.859
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Over
Game 957-958: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.815; Philadelphia (Oswalt) 15.968
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Under
Game 959-960: Colorado at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.446; NY Mets (Niese) 14.640
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Hudson) 15.247; Milwaukee (Bush) 14.934
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over
Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 13.354; San Diego (Correia) 16.356
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-200); Over
Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 13.885; San Francisco (Zito) 15.058
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-165); Under
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.573; Detroit (Verlander) 14.951
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Under
Game 969-970: Kansas City at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 13.543; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.510
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Over
Game 971-972: Oakland at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 14.744; Seattle (French) 15.793
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over
Game 973-974: Baltimore at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.944; Cleveland (Tomlin) 15.505
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-145); Under
Game 975-976: Boston at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.888; Toronto (Marcum) 16.449
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Over
Game 977-978: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.582; Texas (Lee) 15.319
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+140); Under
Game 979-980: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.687; White Sox (Danks) 16.067
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-175); Under
John Ryan
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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox
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5* graded play on Boston as they take on Toronto set to start at 7:07 EST. Boston has been a play for us in 4 of the past 5 games and they are making us money. As a team they are more healthy now than at any other time this season and we believe that they are going to make a huge run in the Al East divisional race and the Al Wilde Card over the remainder of the month. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 75-43 making 26.8 units since 2004. Play on any team with a poor defensive catcher allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season and after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less. Boston is a stout 14-2 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 54% of their games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Toeronto has not done well against teams like Boston posting a 12-28 (-18.1 Units) record against the money line when facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Boston starter is in a near perfect spot noting he is 9-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston.
Vernon Croy
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Take Tampa Bay Rays
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems so we will take the Rays again today against a struggling Detroit Tigers team. The Rays are now 9-2 in their last 11 games after winning their previous game and Matt Garza (11-6, ERA 3.90) has been lights out over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 1.50 while lasting an average of 8 innings per start. The Rays are now 21-7 in their last 28 games played against an AL Central opponent and they are also 20-8 in their last 28 games played against a right hand starter. Justin Verlander (12-7, ERA 3.81) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an 0-2 record and an ERA of 4.09 and he will not get much run support again today as the Tigers are hitting just .213 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 2.9 runs per game. Take Tampa Bay as your MLB Free Pick for Wednesday afternoon.
Rocketman
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Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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Washington has a winning record at home this year at 29-24 for the season. Florida has lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Washington bullpen has a 3.58 ERA overall this year and a 3.19 ERA at home this season. Chris Volstad is 3-4 with a 6.02 ERA on the road this season. Marlins are 3-13 in Volstads last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 6-18 in Volstads last 24 starts. Nationals are 5-1 in Olsens last 6 starts vs. National League East. We'll recommend a small play on Washington tonight!
Doug Upstone
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Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels have not met expectations of prior years due to losses in free agency and to injuries. This has led to 57-56 record, ranking 8th in the American League in offense and batting .257 as a team. Today they face last year’s AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke (7-11, 4.11 ERA), who has not been nearly as effective and has 8.05 ERA in prior three starts.
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Today, look to Play On favorites with a money line of -150 or more who are hitting .260 or less, against an above average AL starting pitcher (ERA of 4.20 or lower) in the second half of the season. The favored team has come thru the last 51 of 62 times. Play the Halos this afternoon.
Freddy Wills
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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Royals have been awful especially against the AL West where they have gone 17-40 in their last 57 games. Zach Greinke does start for the Royals, but he has not been the same pitcher as years past. He now comes with with an 8.05 ERA in his last three starts and he's struggled during the day and on the road. He's just 1-5 during day starts this year.
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More importantly is the stats on Jered Weaver who is 5-2 with a 1.70 ERA this year at home. He's been better during day starts than night starts with a 2.34 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He has 7 of his 8 career starts vs. the Royals as quality starts where he posts a 1.56 ERA in those 7 starts including this year where he went 7 shutout innings to beat the Royals earlier this year.
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Angels are 43-19 in Weaver's last 62 home starts, and they have been hitting at home too while they have a .276 average with 5.11 runs per 9 in their last 5 games vs. RHP. Royals can't claim the same with just a .238 average and 2.91 runs per 9 over their last 5 vs. RHP
Tony George
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Gotta love the fact that AZ is beating up the Brew Crew in this series and is undervalued tonight as a dog. A lot of funky results the past few days in MLB overall, and this series in 2-0 in favor of the Brewers. You would think this would be a -145 or higher bet for oddsmakers to post and yet the line is low.
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When your bullpen has an 8 ERA the past 3 games, you are not going to beat anyone and while the Brew Crew is a short fav at home in a must win, why the low line? Trap line in my opinion and the D Backs are worth the stretch for a half unit play here as a live dog. Dan Hudson the starter for AZ tonight is a player who stunk for the White Sox this year, but since being traded has domne well with under a 2 ERA for AZ, I like him tonight.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -127
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Off back-to-back losses to Arizona, look for the Brewers to get back to their winning ways with Bush on the hill. Bush has owned the D-backs in his career, going 5-1 with an ERA of only 3.65. The Brewers are also 6-1 in Bush's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The D-backs have lost 7 of their last 9 against the Brewers, and the Brewers have won 10 of their last 14 at home. Plus, the D-backs are only 25-58 in their last 83 road games. Expect the D-backs to slip up on the road tonight.
Wunderdog
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Royals vs. Angels
Play: Under 7
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Jered Weaver is having a big season for the Angels as he sports a 2.90 ERA entering today's matinee vs the Royals. He has also been much tougher in day games, at 2.32. He has been better of late with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts, so he is in the zone right now. Zack Greinke is a quality pitcher off a bad start and his numbers show he bounces back big off of a poor outing in his last start. Greinke, after surrendering 4+ earned runs in his last start, has followed with a 2.39 ERA in his next start covering over 60 innings the last two seasons. Just 14 of Weaver's last 51 home starts have topped the total, and I'll play this one UNDER.