Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins +1.5 -135
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Minnesota has had Chicago's number. With yesterday's win, the Twins improved to 18-5 in their last 23 games against the White Sox. They also improved to 7-1 in their last 8 in Chicago. Chicago is clearly being overvalued with Danks on the hill. The White Sox have lost each of his last 2 starts, and he has never had much luck against the Twins. He is carrying an ERA of 5.28 in 16 career starts against Minnesota, and the White Sox are just 1-6 in his last 7 starts vs. the Twins. Plus, the Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Perkins is set to make his first start of the season, but he has plenty of big league experience (18-11 record from 2008-2009). I fully expect him to take advantage of this opportunity. The Twins have won 2 of his last 3 starts against the Sox. Take the Twins showing solid value on the run line.
Tony Stoffo
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Braves vs. Astros
Play: Under 7
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Solid release on the under for this evening as Tommy Hudson matches up with Wandy Rodriguez here. Hudson of the Braves has been sharp in his last 3 starts giving up only 3 earned runs, and 14 hits in 20+ innings pitched resulting in a 1.33 ERA and 0.836 WHIP. Add in the fact that Hudson has dominated the Astros with a unbelievable 0.563 WHIP and you can see how Houston does nothing offensively here tonight. While Rodriguez for the Astros has matched Hudson pitch for pitch in his last 3 starts allowing just 1 earned run, and 14 hits in 21+ innings pitched. In this span Rodriguez has an 0.42 ERA and 0.797 WHIP while striking out 23. So with both of these pitches going deep into the game I can definitely see a 2-1 final here tonight making the Under the right side in this spot.
TEDDY COVERS
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
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If you think Buck Showalter can’t have an impact on the hapless Baltimore Orioles, you’d better think again! This last place squad has gone 7-1 since Showalter took over last week; pounding out 14 runs in a blowout win here in Cleveland last night. Rookie righty Jake Arrieta: “It’s real fun to be an Oriole right now.”
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Showalter is known for his player accountability and his attention to detail, two things that were noticeably lacking from this squad for the first four months of the season. We can expect Baltimore to continue to offer real value for their supporters as the betting markets struggle to catch up with this team’s current reality.
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Orioles starter Brad Bergeson, like the team, underachieved for months this year. But Bergeson has been rock solid in each of his last two starts, throwing seven full innings each time while allowing a combined ten hits and three runs, with a 10-2 strikeout to walk ratio. Now that Cleveland has cooled off with three straight defeats following their own post-All Star break hot streak; they’ve got no business as favorites here. 2* Take Baltimore.
SEAN MURPHY
Braves @ Astros
PICK: Under 7
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You would be hard pressed to find two starting pitchers in better form than Tommy Hanson and Wandy Rodriguez right now.
Hanson has allowed two earned runs or less in six of seven starts since the start of July, with five of those seven games totaling six runs or fewer.
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Rodriguez has given up just one earned run over his last three starts, and you would have to go back three starts to find the last time he allowed an earned run here at Minute Maid Park.
Not surprisingly, we're seeing a low total this afternoon, but at least we can play it at even money now that it's dropped from 7.5 to 7 with word that Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Jason Heyward will all be sidelined for the Braves.
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The under has cashed in three of five meetings between these two teams this season, and is 8-3 in their last 11 matchups in Houston. It's also worth noting that the under is 11-4 in Atlanta's last 15 games overall and 33-16-3 the last 52 times Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez has pitched at home.
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Add it all up, and we can expect runs to come at a premium in Houston this afternoon. Take the under.
Larry Ness
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TEX (-160) vs NYY
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The Rangers beat the Yankees 4-3 (10 innings) last night and are 8 1/2 games up in the AL West over the A's, easily the largest margin of any of MLB's six divisions. Meanwhile, the Yankees have now lost SIX of nine and while they own MLB's best record (69-43), their lead atop the AL East was cut to one-half game over the Rays. Texas goes for a two-game sweep of the defending champs with Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee is a modest 2-2 (team is 3-3) in his six starts since coming to Texas but he owns a 2.63 ERA, pitching at least EIGHT innings in each start. So what's new? His streak of eight innings or more is now at 10 in a row, the longest in MLB since Toronto's Pat Hentgen did it 12 times in a row in 1996. Lee leads the AL in ERA(2.44) and complete games (seven) plus he's struck out 126 while walking just NINE in 155 innings! The Yankees will likely remember that BOTH of Philly's win in last year's World Series came with Lee on the mound for Philadelphia and that earlier this year (while with Seattle), Lee beat the Yanks 7-4 (CG, allowing eight hits and three ERs). Javier Vazquez (9-8, 4.63 ERA) is having a so-so year at best for the Yankees and faces a Texas team which is 37-21 at home while averaging 5.43 RPG. Lee over Vazquez? Who do you want?
SPORTS WAGERS
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Florida +1.04 over WASHINGTON
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The Marlins ripped apart Stephen Strasburg last night, the first team to do so, and they have to be feeling pretty good coming into this one. They’ve won two straight after a five-game losing streak and let’s not forget that prior to that brief skid they had won 12 of 15. Also note that the Marlins are coming off series against the Cards, Phillies, Padres, Giants and Braves and that group could arguably have the top five rotations in the league. Now the Marlins take a huge step down in class when facing these Nationals, a team that is error-prone, that’s not hitting the ball and that’s lost three in a row and four of five. Scott Olsen makes just his third start back since coming off the DL. Olsen was good once upon a time but he had Labrem surgery in ’06 and he has a bum shoulder that’s given him problems ever since. He went on the DL this year for two months after complaining of stiffness in that same shoulder. His velocity was down in ’08 and ’09 and he’s simply a beaten down pitcher that the Nats are hoping to get some innings from for the remainder of the season. Chris Volstad is 23 and has a ton of upside. With a groundball rate of 47%, some real good stuff and a HR/9 of 0.9 this season, Volstad shows the skills necessary to succeed, especially if he can reduce the walks a little bit. Volstad has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and he has absolutely dominated the Nats twice already this season. In fact, in 16 IP against WAS he’s allowed eight hits, walked three and struck out 12 for a BAA of .151 and an ERA of 1.69. Olsen favored over Volstad and the Fish is incorrect. Play: Florida +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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Arizona +1.20 over MILWAUKEE
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Daniel Hudson has made two starts for the D-Backs since being traded from the White Sox and he’s performed brilliantly in both. He’s thrown not one, but two three-hitters and comes into this one with his confidence soaring. In 15.2 innings since joining the Snakes, Hudson has allowed six hits and two ER for a BAA of .113 and an ERA of 1.15. The kid has nasty stuff and it’s not a fluke. At Triple-AAA Charlotte this season he struck out 108 batters in 93 IP and he certainly has another great chance to excel against the free-swinging Brewers. These pitchers going from the AL to the NL over the past few years have been money and Hudson is no exception. Meanwhile, Dave Bush instills fear into nobody. This guy is hittable and relies heavily on hitting his spots and changing speeds. Sometimes it works but more often it does not. He has five wins in 22 starts this season, a BAA of .291, a high WHIP of 1.55 and rarely does he make it past the sixth inning. The D-Backs are very warm with five wins in its last six with only loss over that stretch coming against Mat Latos. Dave Bush is no Mat Latos. Play: Arizona +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
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Chicago +1.53 over SAN FRANCISCO
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If you’re buying into Barry Zito’s success this season all we can say is good luck to you because it’s not going to last. A serious correction in Zito’s numbers is likely to occur in the season’s last seven weeks. There is no doubt that when we look at the surface stats, Zito looks like the Cy Young winner he once was ... but when we look under the hood, we see that this is a skill set that really hasn't changed all that much. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre garbage that says he can't get out of trouble on his own and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. What he’s done this year is run into some very cold teams at the plate. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back in time and retrieve the skills he once had. His stock is high but his value is very low and the fact that he’s –1.63 is completely out of whack, especially when you consider that the Giants are laboring badly. Furthermore, Tom Gorzelanny is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Giants and he’s 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA since rejoining the rotation. However, this isn’t about wagering on Gorzelanny as much as it is about taking back a sweet tag against Zito. Play: Chicago +1.53 (Risking 2 units).
Glenn McGrew
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Marlins at Nationals
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The A pair of below average offenses head to Washington, a huge, pitcher friendly park. Chris Volstad of the Marlins has a 3.78 ERA his last three starts and is a good strikeout pitcher. Washington is 4-0 under the total the last four starts by Scott Olsen, and opponents hit .255 off him at home (.282 on the road). Oddsmakers have overvalued this total. Play the Marlins/Nationals Under the total.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles +127
The Baltimore Orioles have some kind of chemistry in their clubhouse right now. All of a sudden this looks like one of the best teams in the league under new manager Buck Showalter. The Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 games, which is impressive considering they were an underdog in all but one of those contests. Baltimore just put up 14 runs on the Indians last night to tax Cleveland's bullpen, and I expect them to put up another big number tonight because of it.
Certainly starter Bradley Bergesen isn't having a great season, but he has been revived in his last 2 starts. Bergesen has allowed just 3 earned runs and 12 base runners in 14 innings over his last 2 outings, posting a 1.93 ERA. Cleveland is 1-9 against the money line in home games after allowing 8 runs or more this season. The Indians are also 1-10 against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs over the last 2 seasons. So they have not responded well after getting rocked as you can see. Take the Orioles Wednesday.
Black Widow
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1* on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +127
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After getting it handed to them by the Twins in a 6-12 loss last night, we look for the White Sox to return the favor Wednesday with and exploit the big edge they have on the mound. John Danks has been rock-solid all season, going 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.127 WHIP. Danks is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.004 WHIP in 12 home starts this year as well. Glen Perkins makes his first start of the season for the Twins. He ended 2009 very poorly, going 1-2 with a 14.25 ERA in his final 3 starts of the season. He allowed 19 earned runs in 12 innings. Perkins sports a 5.96 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 4 career starts against Chicago. The White Sox are 13-2 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in home games in the second half of the season this season, winning by an average score of 6.5 to 2.9. Take Chicago on the Run Line.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners +110
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Reasons the Mariners win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (SEATTLE) - after 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games. This is a 36-5 ML System hitting 87.8% since 1997. Seattle continues to fight despite being out of the postseason race. Bet the Mariners at home.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on New York Mets -117
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With Tuesday's loss, the Rockies are now just 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 0-7 in their last 7 vs. the National League East. Plus, the Rockies fell to 4-23 in their last 27 road meetings with the Mets. Look for the Rockies' road struggles to continue against the Mets as New York is 8-2 in Niese's last 10 home starts. Plus, I just don't see Francis getting the job done against a Mets club that is 9-2 in its last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Mets.
Hollywood Sports
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Red Sox at Blue Jays
Prediction: Under
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This is a spot with two very good starting pitchers. Clay Buchholz goes for Boston with his 12-5 record along with a 2.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP for the season. He is countered by Shaun Marcum who is 10-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP for Toronto. But what makes this Under play click are the split stats. Buchholz actually pitches better away from Fenway Park given his 2.52 ERA and 1.19 WHIP as compared to his 2.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season. Furthermore, Buchholz has proven himself to be very comfortable facing these AL East rivals as he sports a 3.30 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a .237 opponent's batting average in 43 2/3 innings of work against the Blue Jays in his career. Marcum has been much better at home as evidenced by his 2.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .228 opponent's batting average at home versus his 4.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .267 opponent's batting average when on the road. Additionally, Marcum typically stymies Boston hitters given his 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and mere .206 opponent's batting average in 55 2/3 innings of work in his career against the Red Sox. He should continue to fare well here as Boston is hitting only .233 in their last ten games against right-handed pitchers. The importance of digging deeper to identify sabermetrics like home/road split stats, career stats versus an opponent and recent trends is that this more precise information better informs us (as opposed to just looking at a pitcher's Won-Loss record and ERA) as to what to expect from both respective starters for the game in question. In this situation, take the Under while listing both starting pitchers
LEE KOSTROSKI
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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Jeff Francis was hit hard in his last start but the Rockies are 6-4 in his last ten starts and he has delivered a quality start in eight of his 15 outings on the season. Francis owns very similar numbers on the road as at home and moving to Citi Field for tonight’s game should only help the left-hander. The Mets are just 3-6 in the last nine games against left-handed pitchers and New York is 7-16 since the All Star Break, completely fading out of playoff contention and falling below .500 for the year.
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Colorado has not enjoyed historical success in New York but the Rockies generally only play one series a year there. Colorado is 24-17 on the season against left-handed pitching and the Rockies appear to be on the verge of a push back towards the NL West leaders with wins in seven of the last ten games. Colorado is batting .320 in that stretch including .346 against southpaw pitching. The Mets meanwhile have been ice cold on offense with a .231 team average including hitting just .214 against left-handers in the last ten games.
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Jonathon Niese has enjoyed a nice season for the Mets but the 23-year old appears to be running out of gas. The Mets have lost five of his last six starts and in his last home outing he allowed seven runs in less than five innings. His ERA and WHIP are higher in his home starts despite Citi Field being a favorable venue for pitchers and the Rockies won each of the last two games against the Mets with Niese on the mound. Earlier this year Niese allowed nine hits and five runs in five innings against the Rockies and the lineup is well suited to handle left-handers.
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New York’s bullpen has struggled in recent weeks with a 6.75 bullpen ERA in the last ten games and while the Mets are 33-19 at home on the season they are just 4-6 in the past ten home contests. With Jason Bay, Rod Barajas, and Fernando Tatis on the DL the Mets lack some punch and Carlos Beltran may sit Tuesday night as well. Colorado has also fared extremely well in the second games of a series going 24-12 for the season.