DAVE COKIN
RANGERS @ TWINS
PLAY: TWINS -115
Rough sledding lately for the Minnesota Twins. Let’s call it straight, the Twins have performed well above expectations for much of this season. They were the widespread choice to bring up the rear in the AL Central heading into the campaign, but Hall of Fame member Paul Molitor has gotten the max out of his talent on hand in his first year as the Twins manager.
Nevertheless, it has not been good lately for Minnesota. So the fact the Twins rallied to get a ninth-inning walkoff win last night has to be a really big mental lift for the Twins. I think they’ve got a decent shot to build a little momentum with a second straight victory tonight.
Mike Pelfrey has quite the home/road dichotomy working this season. Pelfrey has some grotesque numbers away from Target Field. But when pitching at home, it has been a different story. Palfrey hasn’t pitched as well as the microscopic 2.05 ERA might suggest. But the analytic numbers are not bad and I think it’s fair to suggest that the Twins have to feel reasonably confident when Pelfrey toes the rubber at home.
Nick Martinez is basically a twice through the lineup guy for Texas. The righty really doesn’t have any good data. The ERA is acceptable, but FIP, xFIP, SIERA and the last 30-day stats are all just plain lousy. The Twins ought to be able to fashion some offense against Martinez tonight.
I don’t see any great value here, and this is more on feel than anything else. I like the idea of backing a guy who has managed to give his team a decent chance to win almost every start he’s made at home. Plus, I have to think the Twins arrive at the ballpark feeling good after getting such a desperately needed win on the prior evening. I’ll side with the Twins for the Wednesday free play.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Boston Red Sox -115
This game fits a Solid Road warrior system direct from the MLB Database and plays on road favorites like Boston with a posted total of 8 or less that are off a 1 run road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent like Miami that is off a 1 run home dog win and scored 5 or more runs. These road teams are 18-3 since 2004. Miami has lost 8 of 11 and has Conley on the mound making just his 2nd start and taking on the vaunted Boston lineup. The Sox have top pitching prospect E-Rod on the Mound and he has a solid 2.86 road Era. Look for Boston to hook the Marlins today.
Scott Spreitzer
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Boston Red Sox -115
Adam Conley makes his 6th appearance and 2nd start of the season for the Marlins today. Conley has allowed four earned runs in 7 1/3 since being recalled. He'll fill the spot vacated by Jose Urena, who was recently placed on the DL. Besides the fact Conley isn't used to eating-up innings, he's not likely to get a lot of support at the plate. Miami enters on a 0-4 slide in IL action against southpaws and they're on a 2-11 slide as an IL underdog in general. Boston counters with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. The young gun has six strong outings in his last seven starts, posting a 2.48 ERA & 1.16 WHIP in the half-dozen solid trips to the bump. His team enters on a 4-0 run when he starts as a favorite and the Sox are on a 7-1 run in head-to-head tilts with the Marlins. I expect Boston's young lefty to outduel Miami's and I'm recommending a play on the Red Sox.
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Red Sox -115
Boston managed to blow a 4-0 lead in the 6th inning of Tuesday's series opening 4-5 loss to the Marlins and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in game 2 on Wednesday. Even with the win, Miami is just 4-13 in their last 17 games, so there's definitely some value here with the Red Sox as a small favorite.
This becomes an even stronger play when you factor in the starting pitching matchup. Boston will send out Eduardo Rodriguez, who has an impressive 2.86 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 6 road starts, as well as a 2.84 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Miami will counter with Adam Conley, who be making his second career start. Conley gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in his first start at home against the Reds, but lasted just 5 innings. With Boston's offense doing some damage of late, 24 runs last 4 games, I like their chances of putting up a big number on their way to an easy win.
Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts when listed as a favorite and 7-3 in their last 10 interleague road games against a left-handed starter. Miami is 2-11 in their last 13 interleague games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games versus a left-handed starter.
Brandon Lee
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -130
Seattle is definitely worth a look here, as the Orioles haven't had much success on the road with Kevin Gausman on the mound. Baltimore is a mere 1-3 in Gausman's 4 road starts and it's been pretty much all his fault. Gausman has an awful 8.41 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in those 4 road outings. In his most recent start at Los Angels (Angels), he allowed 6 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in just 5 2/3 innings of work. On the flip side of this, Seattle sends out the red-hot Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off back-to-back strong starts in which he's allowed just 4 earned runs on 9 hits in 15 2/3 innings of work.
Jim Feist
Nationals vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 6
Both teams have great pitching depth and Dodger stadium is huge, great for hurlers. The under is 13-6 in the Nationals last 19 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Washington has a strong arm going in Jordan Zimmermann (3.44 ERA), allowing just 1 run. LA has an ace of its own in Clayton Kershaw (2.51 ERA), on a red hot roll allowing 0 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. He has a 1.66 ERA at home and has faced Washington once this season, shutting them out on 3 hits over 8 innings with no walks and 14 strikeouts. Kershaw is on an 8-1 run under the total plus the Under is 4-1 in Kershaw's last 5 home starts.
Marc Lawrence
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -168
Edges - Cubs: Jason Hammel 9-4 team starts at night this season, and 6-3 last nine team starts at home during the month of August. Brewers: Matt Garza 3-8 team starts at night this season, and 6.40 away ERA as opposed to 4.32 ERA home this season. With Garza 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his career team starts versus Chicago, we recommend a 1* play on the Cubs.
Art Aronson
Pirates at Cardinals
Pick: Under
The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (14-5, 2.39 ERA), who gave up three runs off four hits over six innings, walking three and striking out five in what turned out to be a no-decision vs. the Dodgers on Friday. It was another quality start for Cole and the three runs was the most he's given up since early July (note that Cole is 2-2 with a 2.73 ERA over his past five starts, and is 6-3 with a tiny 2.01 ERA on the road this season). The home side counters with Michael Wacha (13-4, 2.92 ERA), who is coming off a gem in which he gave up no runs over seven innings, scattering four hits while striking out six in his team's 3-0 win over the Reds on Thursday. Wacha comes in having thrown back-to-back seven-inning shutouts and has to be feeling pretty confident that he'll keep the momentum rolling here today as he's 5-2 with a 2.51 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. With each of these hurlers coming into this one on top form, the UNDER becomes a very legitimate investment opportunity.
Frank Jordan
Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -140
San Francisco got an outstanding performance from Bumgarner last night as he threw a complete game five hitter allowing just a single run while not allowing a walk and striking out 12. Kazmir pitched OK, but once he gave up a third run and the way Bumgarner was dealing it was over. San Francisco goes for the sweep of this mini two game set with Chris Heston on the mound who is 11-6 with a 3.86 ERA and coming off a bad outing where he allowed five runs in four innings. Each time this season Heston has allowed five or more runs the Giants are 5-0 in his next outing and he is 4-0. Houston has Scott Feldman going who is 4-5 with a 4.46 ERA, but has pitched well on the road with a 2-1 record and 3.20 ERA. Houston hasn't fair well with Feldman on the mound as they are 3-6 in his last nine starts. Look for Heston to once again bounce back after a poor outing as the Giants take this afternoon affair 5-2.
Power Sports
Yankees vs. Indians
Pick: Indians
The Indians won a marathon game Tuesday night, 5-4 over the Yankees that took 16 innings. It was a very rare time that the Tribe took a series opener at home where they are just 23-33 for the year. But you can look for them to build off the momentum from last night and make it two straight over the Bronx Bombers.
With both bullpens obviously taxed, the pressure will be on both of tonight's starters. It seems like eons ago that CC Sabathia was pitching for Cleveland, but the hefty lefty will be back at Progressive Field Weds night. He is off a solid outing, six innings of three-hit ball (one-run allowed) against Boston, but that's been the exception rather than the rule as Sabathia comes in w/ a 5.34 ERA & 1.415 WHIP in 21 starts. He'd allowed five runs in B2B starts prior to the quality outing.
The Yankees' lineup has done next to nothing over the last six games. The four runs scored last night were their most during that stretch, but they didn't score at all in the seven extra frames. That after scoring just four runs total the previous five games! Thus, you can't really like their chances facing Danny Salazar, who has a 1.31 ERA and 0.774 WHIP his L3 starts. Salazar is working on a streak of five consecutive quality starts and has allowed just four hits total in his last two. I really think that winning a 16-inning game can have an effect on the rest of the series and I'm betting on the visitors being deflated here.
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
AL hitters are starting to catch up to Angels rookie starter Andrew Heaney, who has allowed 6 runs and 14 hits over his last two starts covering 11 IP. And now that the Halo offense has once again gone on the blink, scoring just two runs over the first two games of this midweek set, not sure Heaney gets much support tonight. The Chisox have played in streaks all season and might be on the verge of another last-ditch uptick with impressive wins the past two nights, and starter John Danks has allowed just one run over 18 1/3 IP in his last three starts at The Cell.
Mr Vegas
Philadelphia at Arizona
Play: Philadelphia
Arizona is a .500 team at home and a hot Philadelphia team is in town, on a 16-6 run. 22-year old Aaron Nola (2-1, 3.65 ERA) has been impressive walking only 5 in 24+ innings with 21 strikeouts. The team is 3-0 his last three starts. The Phillies are 15-5 in their last 20 games on grass, plus 6-2 vs. a team with a losing record. Arizona has up and down Chase Anderson (4.10 ERA) going, with the team 1-2 his last three starts. The Diamondbacks are 1-8 in Andersons last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, plus 19-49 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Philadelphia is 4-1 against Arizona, so grab the hot dog.
Sleepyj
Baltimore / Seattle Over 7
I expect the bats to be rather hot for both clubs today...Baltimore will send RHP kevin Gausman to the mound today..He has a 4.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22...Gausman has really struggled over the 2nd half of the season..The beginning of the year was much better, but now he is getting hit up in games...He had a career day in a losing effort back on July 2nd..Since then it's been mostly bad for Gausman...He has lost 3 of the last 5 games, and in those 3 of the last 5 he has given up a ton of runs. He has started to give up the long ball as well..He has given up 5 HR's in the last 5 games...Being a converted bullpen guy to starter often has it's headaches, but i feel this once turns out bad for Gausman today...Seattle has been hitting the ball well for a decent stretch of games now..This is the rubber match here today and both teams should come out swinging...Mariners will send out Iwakuma today and his ERA sits at 4.41..He has looked much better , but i still think he is a bit overrated...I'm not going to buy in with a few decent starts since he came back...He struggles against deep lineups and this is one of them..We have a ton of power in both lineups today. We just might see a few bombs here today..I like the over 7.
River City Sharps
Baltimore Orioles +115
Orioles coming off tough extra innings loss on Tuesday, get Iwakuma is what might be good spot. Last start, he logged career high 118 pitches and he has struggled in past in games following a high pitch count. He is also 0-2, 3.66 ERA vs. Baltimore, so we think the Orioles are a live dog in this spot
Miami Marlins +109
Conley making just his second ML start, but was pretty effective in first win over the Reds. We'll side with the home team in the series finale
Chicago White Sox +110
Danks was an auto-fade earlier this year, but has pitched much better lately and with the White Sox again playing good baseball and heaney coming off a really rough start last out, we think the Southsiders get the sweep today
St. Louis Cardinals -115
Tremendous pitching matchup, but the value here is with the Cardinals at home at a low price. The Cardinals have won 16 of their last 18 home games and Wacha sports a 2-0, 1.82 ERA in four career starts vs. these Pirates