Don Best Consensus
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals
KC are 46-20 in their last 66 home games. KC Starter Volquez has been solid his L3 starts, going 2-1 with a 2.84ERA. Tigers starter Norris 4.43 ERA over 12 career Major League appearances and couldn't make it out of the 4th inning last time out.
Larry Ness
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets -1.5
The Mets beat the Rockies 4-0 last night as Matt Harvey pitched eight scoreless innings (allowed only four hits). New York now sends Jacob deGrom (10-6, 2.13 ERA) to the mound Wednesday night, against a Colorado team which is again struggling on the road vs right-handers, particularly at night. The Rockies are 18-51 in road night games vs right-handed starters (averaging only 3.3 RPG), going back to Opening Day 2014. That hardly bodes well with deGrom on the mound tonight at Citi Field. Yes, he’s won just TWO of his last five starts but the Mets have won ALL five games, with deGrom posting a 1.59 ERA while averaged 10.59 strikeouts per nine innings in that stretch.
DeGrom had nine strikeouts and allowed three hits in eight innings of a 2-0 home win in his only start against the Rockies, last September 9. That's part of New York's EIGHT straight home wins over Colorado and the pitchers have carried the load with a 0.75 ERA. Matt Harvey tossed the latest gem, going eight innings in Tuesday's 4-0 victory. The Mets have a 1.31 ERA during a five-game home winning streak, improving to 40-18 there to match last season's win total. A victory Wednesday would give them the best home record in franchise history after 59 games.
While the Mets own MLB’s second-best ERA (3.21), the Rockies rank dead-last among MLB’s 30 teams, with a 4.96 ERA. Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.85 ERA / team is 11-8 in his starts) is 4-1 in five career starts vs the Mets but his ERA is a less than spectacular 4.01. The Rockies have dropped 14 of their last 19 on the road and “getting to” deGrom here in Queens (he’s allowed just 33 hits in 57.1 innings with a 60-10 KW ratio, a 1.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP) seems like a stretch. Lay the 1 1/2 runs.
Steve Rosen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -109
St. Louis, which improved to 41-16 at home, kicked off a nine-game homestand with the win as it looks to put some real distance between itself and the rest of the Central. The Cardinals will face a bigger challenge on Wednesday, when Pittsburgh sends ace Gerrit Cole to the mound in search of his league-leading 15th win. St. Louis will counter with Michael Wacha, who has not given up a run in his last two starts. two stud pitchers going at it today.Wacha yielded a total of eight hits in 14 scoreless innings over his last two starts, beating Colorado and Cincinnati. The 24-year-old struck out 13 and walked three in those two turns and is 3-1 since the All-Star break. Wacha allowed two earned runs over 12 2/3 total innings in back-to-back outings against Pittsburgh in May and is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five career games – four starts – versus the Pirates. The edge is with the Cardinals with Wacha's stats vs the Pirates. Also, Cardinals are too good of a team at home and will take down the Pirates tonight!
Will Rogers
Houston vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The San Francisco Giants are just 2.5 games back of the first place Dodgers in the NL West, and they'll look to complete the sweep of a two game set at home against the Astros this afternoon. Houston is really struggling on the road, coming in as losers of nine of their last 10.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Scott Feldman will get the start for the Astros, and he's been one of their worst pitchers this season. Feldman (4-5, 4.46 ERA) gave up a pair of solo home runs in six innings in a no decision versus Oakland in his last appearance. He's 0-1 with a 3.65 ERA over his last four starts. The Giants counter with red hot rookie Chris Heston, who is 5-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 11 starts in San Francisco this season.
2. Previous History - This will be the second time this season that Heston will face Houston, he went the distance, allowing one run on two hits, striking out 10 in a win at Houston earlier this year.
3. X-Factor - The Giants have won eight of the last nine meetings in this series.
The Gold Sheet
Rangers at Twins
Play: Rangers
Texas dropped a bitter 10-inning decision last night at Target Field but lost no ground to the leaders in the AL West as the fading Astros and Angels both lost. The Rangers should be able to do some business vs. Twins starter Mike Pelfrey, who's 0-5 with a 6.22 ERA in his last 10 starts. Pelfrey also has a 7.02 career ERA vs. Texas, which should have an edge with Nick Martinez, who has won his last two starts with a 2.38 ERA.
Wunderdog
New York @ Cleveland
Pick: New York +112
The New York Yankees have seen their once seven-game lead in the AL East shaved to just half a game. They have dropped four straight, as the offense has gone sour. They blew a 4-0 lead last night before losing in 16 frames to the Indians. CC Sabathia will be called upon to stop the bleeding, and he has been a bit better of late, with his best start of the season coming his last time out where he allowing just 3 hits, and 1 run, in six innings. Danny Salazar has been good for most of the way this season, entering with a sturdy 9-6 record, backed by a 3.38 ERA. Sabathia owns a 4-1 career mark vs. the Tribe, backed by a 2.94 ERA, and he has not lost any of his last four starts. The Yanks also fit into a situation tonight that has a 13.5% ROI over the last 12 years. Take the Yankees as a small road dog.
SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS
San Diego Padres -131
James Shields takes the bump for SD today, he comes in only giving up 8 ER total in his last 4 starts. The Reds have struggled on the road all season, winning just 4 of their last 12 on the road. SD is 6-1 in its last 7 home games against the Reds, the trends favor SD, and we will back Shields as the better pitcher in this matchup. The Safe pick in this game, is on the Padres.
San Francisco Giants -124
The Astros are the surprise team of MLB this season, but they have struggled mightily on the road, barely imitating the powerful team they play at Home. Houston comes in just 1-8 overall in their last 9 games, playing today against last seasons World Series Champions who are 31-23 at their home ballpark. The Giants conversely are 8-1 at home in their last 9, and I like rookie Chris Heston (11-6 3.48 ERA) to bounce back from back to back shaky outings, and get SF back on track. Houstons road woes continue, and the smart $ is on the Giants in this early game.
Boston Red Sox -119
Been following baseball this season? Then you know by now that fading the Fish, has been a smart investment all season. Today we follow that trend taking a Red Sox team who has scored 6 or more runs in their last 10 games. The Bo-Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games, 5-2 in in Rodriguezs’ last 7 starts while the Fish are 0-5 in their last 5 Game 2s of a Series, and 3-13 in their last 16 overall. Todays theme…Fade the Fish.
Cleveland Indians -119
The Yankees are in the midst of a collapse, while the Jays continue to win (now just .5 games out of 1st place) the Yanks found a way to lose last night in a 16 inning marathon. Things don’t get much better for the Bronx Bombers today, as “former” Ace CC Sabathia toes the rubber for New York. Sabathia has been a dumpster fire all season, and in his last 3 starts…even worse, with a 6.00 ERA overall. The Indians counter with staff Ace, Danny Salazar, Salazar has gone 20.2 IP with a WHIP of 0.77 and an ERA of just 1.31 in his last 3 games. The Yankees have only scored 2 runs in their previous 4 games, and against Salazar expect those trends to continue. On the flip, Cleveland should have no trouble doing what so many other teams have already done…bash the baseball against Sabathaa. Smart $ is on the the Indians to continue the Yankees woes.
St. Louis Cardinals -111
Hard to pass up a Cardinals home game with a line under -115 and Michael Wacha on the mound. This is just a situation where the Cards are so good at home, and at this price as an investor…you can’t pass up. The Cards are 12-5 in their last 17 as a favorite with Wacha starting, 4-1 in their last 5 overall, and 4-1 in Wachas last 5 starts vs the Pirates. The Pirates are good, very good…just not as good as St Louis. A safe investment betting the best team in the National League, to continue their winning ways at home.
Rocky Atkinson
Pittsburgh @ St Louis
Play: St Louis -111
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to St Louis to take on the Cardinals on Wednesday night. Great pitching match here with Cole vs Wacha. Michael Wacha is 13-4 with a 2.92 ERA overall this year, 5-2 with a 2.51 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA his last 3 starts. Wacha has 112 strike outs compared to only 32 walks overall this season. Wacha is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his five starts vs Pittsburgh in his career. St Louis is 41-16 at home this year where they are allowing only 2.7 runs per game. St Louis is allowing only 2 runs per game their past 7 games overall. St Louis is 20-6 at home vs Pittsburgh the past 3 years. St Louis is 7-1 at home this year when the money line is -100 to -125. St Louis is 56-26 against right handed starters this year. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the San Diego Padres in their matinee clash with the struggling Cincinnati Reds, who have lost three straight after losing last night to the Padres.
The Padres won 11-6 last night, as young Colin Rea was recalled earlier in the day from Triple-A El Paso, and then won his MLB debut after allowing three runs in five-plus innings. He struck out four, walked one, allowed seven hits and even recorded his first hit on his way to the victory.
Today I'm not listing pitchers, as I could really care less about San Diego's aging veteran right-hander, James Shields, and could really care less about Cincinnati's Raisel Iglesias.
This is more about Cincinnati's losing streak, which is now at three games, while it has also lost six of seven overall. Cincinnati, which is mired in a 0-5 slide against right-handers, can attribute its losing ways to a putrid offense that is hitting .249, and an even worse .238 on the road.
I'll side with the Padres in this one, as they win the matinee contest.
4* SAN DIEGO
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Dodgers on the Run Line over the Nationals.
They used to have a saying; "Spahn and Sain, pray for rain!", well, the Dodgers have Greinke and Kershaw and their marketing department would be wise to come up with a catch phrase for when those two pitch, because Greinke just blanked the Nats over 6 frames, as L.A. shutout Washington, 5-0.
Could be another blank-job tonight, as Kershaw stands at 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA over his last 6 starts. He is also 4-1 with a 0.80 ERA his last 6 starts at home this year. Finally, Kershaw is 6-0 with a 0.96 ERA the last 6 times he has started against Washington!
Jordan Zimmerman is 0-2 over his last 5 starts with an over 4 ERA in that span. Unless Zimmerman throws a perfect game, I see the Nats losing this one by 2 runs or better for sure.
Dodgers on the Run Line the call for Wednesday.
4* L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Wednesday's comp play is the same as Tuesday's, and that is the Blue Jays on the Run Line over the Athletics.
Things are good North of the Border, as the Jays have taken flight with 9 straight wins now, and are within a half-game of the Yankees (who they welcome this weekend) for the division lead.
8 of the Blue Jays 9 wins during their current tear have come by 2 runs or better, so it makes perfect sense to continue to ride this streak the Jays are on and lay the run-and-a-half behind R.A. Dickey this Wednesday.
Dickey gets moved up a day to let Mark Buehrle pitch on 6 days rest tomorrow.
Dickey has been brilliant since the break with a 3-0 mark in his 5 starts, and a 0.99 ERA in that stretch,
It really doesn't matter to me who is on the hill - heck, I could take the ball for Toronto and stand a good chance of getting the win! - as the Blue Jays are playing on another level right now.
Take the Jays on the run line.
3* TORONTO -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Houston at SAN FRANCISCO (-130)
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - An interesting series continues in San Francisco, where the defending World Series champion Giants meet the American League-contending Houston Astros. For this one, I have to side with the Giants here, as they're catching the Astros on a four-game losing streak, and are in a better spot to win tonight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The x-factor for this one is motivation. The Giants snapped a four-game losing streak of their own, last night, and they're on the heels of the National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Since Frisco is just 2.5 games back in the division, there is plenty of reason to think it'll be motivated, while the Dodgers are hosting hard-hitting Washington.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Overall, the Giants are in must-win mode, as they're also chasing the Pirates and Cubs in the Wild Card race. Pittsburgh leads, Chicago is next in line and the Giants are 3.5 games back from making the postseason as Wild Card. Take the home team tonight, and don't bother listing pitchers.
4* SAN FRANCISCO
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +115 over SAN DIEGO
A month ago, no player in baseball seemed more certain to be traded than Justin Upton. It didn't happen. All indications, even in the hours and minutes leading up to the deadline, were that the Padres would soon get very active, and that Upton would be among their slew of interesting trade chips. In fact, given his impending free agency, it seemed a sure thing. Ditto for the lower-profile Ian Kennedy, Will Venable, and Joaquin Benoit. Despite their inability to assemble a team with all the components necessary to really contend (a left side of the infield, for instance, or a competent defensive outfielder, or an above-average left-handed batter), the Padres seemed loaded with pieces that might entice buyers as the deadline drew near, and in the cases of the four players mentioned above, the high expected demand was matched by strong incentive to make a move on the part of the Padres. After all, these four are unlikely to help the 2016 Padres in any bigger way than by being dealt away for someone the team can employ for that season.
Padres GM, A.J. Preller waited for the market to come to him, though, and the more we learn about the July trade market in the two–Wild Card system, the worse that strategy looks. Without exception, sellers' markets have turned to buyers' markets during the three or four days leading up to the deadline in each of the last few seasons. That happened again this year, and Preller's refusal to accept the free-falling value of his trade chips paralyzed him. Preller and his front office spread the word, as quickly as possible, that they held firm in an effort to save and turn around their season. Winning 10 of their final 14 games before the deadline made that a nearly tenable argument, and might even have been the thing Preller counted on to give him some leverage in last-minute negotiations. Ultimately, though, the clock struck 4 p.m. Eastern on trade deadline day, and things did not look any better for San Diego whatsoever.
The Padres are miles from being a real contender. They're not going to compete this year or next and they're also not going to recover any of the huge future value they surrendered this winter in order to build this clunker of a team by spinning off those four aforementioned expiring contracts. Preller was hoping to get really lucky by putting some players on waivers in an attempt to squeeze something out of those teams in exchange for them. That didn’t happen either. These are colossal gaffes by a general manager whose first year on the job has been more aggressively damaging than that of any executive in recent memory. Preller seems like a poker player on tilt and he's running out of chips. The worst part is that we haven’t even mentioned James Shields yet. Shields is just another bad investment Preller might have hoped to offload before it could do further damage to his budget and roster management but that didn’t happen either. Now Shields will get paid a fortune ($75M) to lose games until 2019. We’ve been fading Shields for the past 2½ months and we’re not about to let up now. Since June 3, the Padres have lost 10 of the 13 games Shields has started. He continues to give up hard hit balls at a rate higher than any starter in baseball. Shields’ strand rate since June 3 is 88%, the highest in MLB among qualified starters but he can’t even win with a strand rate that high. Shields’ surface stats are nothing but a mirage.
Rafael Iglesias signed with the Reds in June 2014 after defecting from Cuba in late 2013. As a result, he did not pitch in 2014 aside from seven scoreless innings in the Arizona Fall League. A reliever while in Cuba, he is in the process of building up his innings workload as he transitions to the starting rotation. Iglesias is very much a work in progress but he has shown flashes of promise for what could lie ahead and he has absolutely filthy stuff. Iglesias is a prime example of surface stats not telling the whole story. Iglesias has posted a stout K-rate and swing and miss rate. His slider has been an outstanding pitch, generating 22% swings and misses. His change-up is well above average with a swing and miss rate of 16%. Over his last 24 innings, he has a BB/K split of 7/26. In his last start in Arizona, he allowed just three hits in six frames and induced 57% groundballs. Pay no attention to Iglesias’ actual ERA of 4.73. Invest in his 3.02 xERA over his last four starts since returning from injury and keep a close eye on him because he’s a hugely under the radar pitcher. San Diego won the opener of this set last night and all we can say to that is big deal. Truth is, the Padres are a mess and now it’s just them playing out the string and waiting for the off-season. When we find a good spot to bet against them we are going to attack and this is one of those spots.
Pittsburgh +115 over ST. LOUIS
After benefitting from good fortune early, a run of bad luck has overshadowed Michael Wacha’s elite skills of late. Wacha’s overall strikeout rate is slightly above league average, but his 11% swing and miss rate hints at upside. Over the past two months, his K-rate (9.3) and swing and miss rate (13%) have ascended beyond the heights displayed in 2013. It’s also worth noting the velocity jump from 2014 to 2015 and that his average velocity was at 95 mph in July. Wacha is a rock solid starter but he’s not worthy of this price against Gerrit Cole mainly because he pitches for the second best offense here.
Over their last 40 games, the Cardinals are hitting .235. Only the Cubbies and Athletics are worse. Throw in an elite starter like Gerrit Cole and one has to trust that the Cardinals are up against it here. Cole has elite numbers right across the board. He comes in with an ERA of 2.39. His BB/K split is 32/143 in 143 frames. Cole has a 2.77 ERA over his last five starts and his xERA of 2.96 on the season backs up everything he’s accomplishing. Cole's superb K-rate/groundball combination with fine control creates a foundation that very few starters enjoy. In fact, Cole is one of just three starting pitchers with 9 K’s/9 or more, 2 BB’s/9 or less, and 52% or more groundball rate this season. Cole’s win expectation is simply too high to ignore when offered a price.
MINNESOTA -113 over Texas
It is tempting to spot the 1½-runs with the Twinkies and take back a huge price but we’ll play it a little safer and spot the cheap price instead. Some favorites are underpriced and this is one of those times, as Nick Martinez is one of the five worst starters in baseball. Martinez has allowed more runs than innings pitched over his last four road starts (with shaky indicators across those four turns) and will go at Target Field against a strong Minnesota home offense. Twins batters have pounded Martinez in the past to the tune of a .908 OPS! Given his less-than-pedestrian skills, this former college middle infielder doesn’t have horrible numbers at least as long as you only look at his ERA (3.91). However, with an xERA that starts with a "5", (6.30 xERA over his last 7 starts) and a minus sign in front of a two-digit RAR (runs above replacement) well, "not horrible" might actually be soft-pedaling this.
Mike Pelfrey was whacked in his last start in Cleveland. In fact, the Twinkies gave Pelfrey a 6-0 head start in that game but he couldn’t hold it and was pulled in the fourth inning after allowing 10 hits and seven runs. In Pelfrey’s defense, Progressive Field was giving up hits and runs in large quantities all weekend long. We’ll give Pelfrey a pass for that outing and focus more on his comfort level at Target Field. In 66 innings at home, Pelfrey has allowed a mere 55 hits for an oppBA of .231. He comes in with a 2.05 home ERA and while that is an unsustainable mark, he is still an elite groundball pitcher that wins games. In those 66 home innings, Pelfrey has been taken yard just twice. Pelfrey is a risk to be sure. We’re merely pointing out his strong points but this wager is much more about spotting a cheap price against Nick Martinez, a pitcher whose win expectation is about as low as it can get. Furthermore, the Twinkies are a great home team that rallied from two down in the eighth inning last night to win 3-2. We have momentum going for us too.
Michael Alexander
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Boston Red Sox -118
Rodriguez suffered a tough-luck loss at New York on Thursday, when he surrendered two runs on six hits and a pair of walks in seven innings. The 22-year-old has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 13 career starts. While Miami starter Conley is taking over the rotation spot of Jose Urena, who was placed on the disabled list with a left knee injury. Conley has made three relief appearances since being recalled on Aug. 1 and allowed a total of four runs in 7 1/3 innings.
Brian Hay
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Texas Rangers +105
The Minnesota Twins have finally come back down to earth after their miracle first three and a half months to start the season. They are just 6-16 over their last 22 games. I believe the worst is yet to come for Minnesota. The Twins send Mike Pelfrey to the bump tonight. Pelfrey is fresh off one of his worst performances of the season last time out, when he gave up seven earned runs in 3.2 innings to the Indians. The Texas Rangers offense is above average now that everyone is healthy. Prince Fielder is back to being a superstar. The Rangers will give Nick Martinez the ball as he looks to get back on track. Martinez has much better stuff than Pelfrey and a better defense behind him. The Rangers will get plenty of offense tonight.