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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August 12,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Philadelphia (62-48) at Chicago Cubs (58-53)

Pedro Martinez is scheduled to make his Phillies debut when he takes the mound at Wrigley Field and matches up against the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija (1-1, 6.29 ERA), who will be making the first big-league start of his young career.

After getting swept at home by the Marlins over the weekend, Philadelphia bounced back Tuesday and gutted out a 4-3, 12-inning victory. Despite the win, the Phillies have still lost six of nine and eight of 12, going 2-4 on the road during this slump. Still, the defending world champs continue to sport baseball’s best road record (33-19) and they’re on a 36-16 roll against the N.L. Central, but they have dropped 11 of 15 on Wednesday.

The Cubs have now lost three in a row, five of six and seven of 11. Chicago is still 8-3 in its last 11at Wrigley Field, with all eight wins coming by multiple runs.

Philadelphia has won three of four against the Cubs this year and is 5-1 in the last six meetings (3-0 at Wrigley Field).

Martinez was signed by the Phillies last month and immediately placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He went 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in three minor-league rehab starts, including striking out 11 in six innings in Wednesday’s outing at Double-A Reading. Last year with the Mets, the veteran right-hander went 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 20 starts, including 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in four starts in September.

Martinez is 4-3 with a 4.12 ERA in 13 career appearances (eight starts) against the Cubs, including 2-2 with a 5.24 ERA in six games (three starts) at Wrigley Field. Coincidentally, his final start in 2008 came against Chicago in Shea Stadium, and he gave up five runs in six innings, getting a no-decision in the Mets’ 7-6 victory.

Samardzija last pitched on Friday at Colorado, when he gave up two runs on five hits in four innings of relief work, getting a no-decision in the Cubs’ 6-2 defeat. The former star wide receiver from Notre Dame is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and one save in 42 career major-league appearances, including 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in three career appearances against Philadelphia, giving up three runs in 3 2/3 innings. This season at Wrigley Field, the right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in eight relief outings.

The under is 12-4-2 in the last 18 Phillies-Cubs clashes at Wrigley Field, and the under is on further runs of 7-2 for Philly on the road, 8-2 for Philly against right-handed starters, 14-5 for Philly on Wednesday and 10-2 for Chicago on Wednesday. Finally, the under was 3-1-1 in Martinez’s last four starts in 2008, though the lone “over” occurred in his final start of the year versus the Cubs.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER

Detroit (59-53) at Boston (64-48)

The Red Sox hand the ball to All-Star Josh Beckett (13-4, 3.12 ERA) as they continue their four-game Fenway Park series against the Tigers, who will counter with struggling right-hander Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.23).

Boston snapped a six-game slide (all on the road) with Monday’s 6-5 victory over the Tigers, then came back on Tuesday and earned a 7-5 win a brawl-filled contest. The Sox are still just 9-14 in their last 23 contests (6-3 at home) and 3-12 in their last 15 against teams with a winning record. On the bright side, they’re on runs of 102-46 at Fenway and 42-15 versus the A.L. Central. Also, Boston has dominated the Tigers of late, winning all five meetings this season, six straight going back to last year and 10 of the last 12, scoring five runs or more in all 10 wins.

Detroit has followed up a three-game winning streak by losing three of its last four. Jim Leyland’s squad is on further downturns of 7-20 on the highway, 17-42 on the road against winning teams, 3-9 against the A.L. East and 1-9 on the road versus right-handed starters.

In addition to their recent success against the Tigers, the Red Sox are 37-15 in the last 52 series clashes overall and 21-6 in the last 27 meetings at Fenway Park.

Galarraga is 1-2 with a 7.64 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, the lone victory being a 10-8 home triumph over Minnesota on Friday, even though the right-hander gave up four runs (three earned) on eight hits and five walks in just five innings. The Tigers had lost five straight games behind Galarraga prior to Friday and they’re just 3-9 in his last 12 outings on the road, but they're 13-6 in his last 19 starts against teams with a winning record.

Galarraga has struggled this season both on the road (2-6, 5.97 ERA in 10 starts) and in night games (2-9, 5.25 in 15 games). The right-hander is also 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts against Boston (both in Detroit), the loss coming on June 3 when he gave up four runs (three earned) in seven innings, falling 10-5.

Beckett was virtually flawless on Friday at Yankee Stadium, tossing seven scoreless innings while giving up four hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. However, he didn’t get any offensive support and the Red Sox eventually lost 2-0 in 15 innings. Beckett has pitched exactly seven innings in three straight starts and he’s gone into the seventh inning in nine consecutive outings, giving up zero runs in five of those contests.

Beckett is a perfect 7-0 with a 2.58 ERA in 10 home starts, with Boston winning nine of those games. In fact, with Beckett on the hill, the BoSox are on surges of 7-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-3 versus the A.L. Central, 14-4 on grass and 6-2 on Wednesday. The Texas native matched up against Galarraga in a 10-5 win at Detroit on June 3, allowing three runs (none earned) on two hits in 7 2/3 innings, walking two and striking out nine. In his last two starts against the Tigers, Beckett is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings.

The under is 5-2 in Galarraga’s last seven starts overall, 8-2 in his last 10 on the road and 4-1 in his last five on Wednesday. Similarly, with Beckett pitching, Boston is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at home and 4-1 versus A.L. Central foes.

As a team, the Red Sox have topped the total in six straight home games, and the over is 22-8-1 in their last 31 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 6-0 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 against the A.L. East, but the under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 against winning teams and 7-1 in their last eight on Wednesday. Finally, the under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 Boston-Detroit duels at Fenway Park, although the first two in this series have flown over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:43 am
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DUNKEL

Pittsburgh at Colorado
The Pirates look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is just 2-6 in its last 8 games as a favorite of -200 or more. Pittsburgh is the pick (+220) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+220).

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Perez) 14.481; Arizona (Garland) 15.825
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-170); Under

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Weaver) 14.459; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.016
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 955-956: Houston at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.502; Florida (Nolasco) 14.981
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); Over

Game 957-958: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 15.990; Atlanta (Lowe) 16.715
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-235); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-235); Under

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martinez) 13.459; Cubs (Samardzija) 15.023
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

Game 961-962: San Diego at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.915; Milwaukee (Villanueva) 14.252
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Over

Game 963-964: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.118; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.259
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-320); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-320); Under

Game 965-966: Pittsburgh at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Hart) 15.077; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.059
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+220); Over

Game 967-968: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 16.595; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.858
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+220); Over

Game 969-970: Oakland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.895; Baltimore (Berken) 14.048
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+125); Under

Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.471; LA Angels (Bell) 14.957
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over

Game 973-974: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 16.006; Cleveland (Carmona) 17.230
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+115); Under

Game 975-976: Detroit at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 14.610; Boston (Beckett) 16.189
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-240); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-240); Over

Game 977-978: Kansas City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 15.875; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.762
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+190); Over

Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.434; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.822
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:43 am
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Vernon Croy
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays should have closed out the game last night leading 4-3 in the 8th but their bullpen blew it for them. The Jays have a better pitcher on the mound this afternoon than they did last night and Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.66) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 3.69 over 9 starts. Romero has lasted an average of 6.8 innings per start on the road this season and he already beat the Yankees in New York back on July.6 where he allowed 7 hits and 3 earned runs over 6.3 innings. The Jays are a perfect 5-0 in Romero's last 5 starts as an underdog and they are also 8-2 in Romero's last 10 starts when pitching with 4 days rest. The Jays are one of the better hitting team on the road this season hitting .280 as a team and there is simply just too much value to pass up Wednesday afternoon. Take the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday afternoon.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:46 am
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BIG AL
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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Over 7.5
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Call it the "Jinx of Perfection." Since Chicago's ace Mark Buehrle pitched the 18th perfect game in Major League history on July 23, the veteran southpaw has gone 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA and he also lost back-to-back home starts for the first time since September of 2006. In a move that the Sox hope will produce some runs and boost their offensive output, Chicago claimed Alex Rios off of waivers from the Blue Jays and, in doing so, will assume his huge contract. But the Sox front office thinks this waiver claim is not only worth the money it will have to spend, but necessary if it is to keep pace with the higher-powered offense of the Tigers. Like Buehrle, Seattle's righthander Felix Hernandez had been cruising along in June and July but has all of a sudden has run into some trouble in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP over 18 2/3 innings. In two August starts, Hernandez -- who normally has excellent control -- walked 10 batters in 13 innings and he was very lucky to get through his last start against Tampa Bay only surrendering three earned runs in six sub-par innings of work. Perhaps the high innings and pitch counts (he threw 113 pitches in the Tampa game) are finally starting to catch up to King Felix. Heading into tonight, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two clubs. Take the 'over.'

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:47 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Texas Rangers
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The Rangers and Indians meet in Game Two of their three-game series when Tommy Hunter faces Fausto Carmona at Progressive Park in Cleveland tonight. Since entering the starting lineup, Hunter has been flying under the radar for Texas, having hurled 5 or more innings in each of his last 8 starts. On the other hand, Carmona is in rocky KW form with 10 strikeouts and 12 walks in his last four starts in August. He is also 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA at home in his career team starts against the Rangers. With that, look for the Tribe to fall to 1-8 in its last nine games on Wednesdays here tonight.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:49 am
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ALEX SMART
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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The Tampa Bay Rays have really struggled here in Anaheim in the past vs the Angels and nothing has changed in the first two games of this series, and I'm betting nothing changes again this afternoon in the finale. The Rays have lost 33 of their L/39 games under this venue and are now a few hours away from losing again and getting swept. Tampa Bay have lost four of the first five on their six-game trip , and are not playing well which makes it much easier to fade them with confidence in this spot. Meanwhile, the Angels have won 17 of their 25 games since the all star break, and and looking very capable of garnering a AL West Title. They go against Rays hurler Jeff Niemann (10-5, 3.73),who despite of pitching well this season, has shown some vulnerabilities of late as is evident by allowing 4 Hrs in last 3 outings. The explosive Halos batting order, is capable of unloading against the best pitcher in this league, so despite of Niemans good numbers he is still at a disadvantage. It must be noted that the Angels are hitting .294 and averaging 5.6 RPG vs righties like Nieman this season. Final notes & Key Trends: Angels are 21-6 in their last 27 games as a home underdog .Play on the LA Angels

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:50 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Total
Play Over 7½
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This total at 7.5 appears to be too low in this one.Both teams have been over machines of late.Seattle had gone over in 7 straight heading into Tuesday nights game,going over in 6 of 8 in August.Chicago had gone over in 8 of 9 in August.In the pitching matchup we have M.Buehrle going tonight and he has a 4.81 road era and an 8.35 era in his last 3 since throwing the perfect game.For Seattle its F.Hernandez.In his last 3 starts he has been hit pretty good with a 5.78 era.His home era is slightly above 4 this year.In the series 3 of 4 had gone over heading into Tuesday.With Seattle hitting over .300 and scoring over 6 runs per game over their past 7,and both teams hitting on all cylinders Ill back the over 7.5 here tonight.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:51 am
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Ross Benjamin
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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Over 7½
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This is a total the general public will in all likelihood stay away from. Since the novice bettors love to play the over they are sure to be scared away with both teams aces taking the hill. However since Mark Buehrle tossed his no hitter he has struggled in the 3 starts since. In those 3 outings Buehrle has posted a very lofty 8.35 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. The Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has been shaky in his last 3 starts posting a 5.79 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Hernandez has an ERA of 2.09 higher at home than on the road in 2009. Seattle has gone over the total in 7 of their last 8 games. The White Sox have gone under in just 3 of the last 11. Play on this game to go over the total as my free selection of the night.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:52 am
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Bobby Maxwell

San Diego (+130) at MILWAUKEE
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Delivered second straight FREE winner on Tuesday as the Indians get the job done at home over the Rangers. Tonight's comp play comes from Milwaukee as I go with San Diego on the road against the Brewers.

After the offensive explosion from the Padres on Tuesday and with the way they've been playing lately, this is a very good value play with them tonight. Grab the plus-money and go with San Diego in this one.

The Padres have won four of five overall, including Tuesday's 13-6 blowout win over Milwaukee. And they've taken four of five from the Brewers, including two straight in Milwaukee. San Diego is on further runs of 7-2 against teams with losing records and 8-3 against right-handed starters.
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On the opposite side, the Brewers are just 4-10 at home against teams with losing records and just 3-8 when Carlos Villanueva gets the nod. Villanueva (2-9, 6.05 ERA) is a lousy 2-6 at home with a 10.80 ERA and he's 0-6 when he's started at night. On Friday he allowed four runs on six hits in 5.1 innings of a 6-3 loss to the Astros, and in his last home start he gave up five runs in four innings of an 8-3 loss to the Nationals.

Kevin Correia (7-9, 4.58) goes for the Padres and he's 1-1 over his last three starts with a 2.45 ERA. On Friday he held the Mets to two runs (none earned) in six innings of a 6-2 San Diego victory.
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Correia has been San Diego's best pitcher for a while, and with their offense going well, this is a great shot to grab some plus-money. Play the Padres.

4♦ SAN DIEGO

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:53 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Cincinnati at ST. LOUIS
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The Yankees busted loose in the eighth inning Tuesday to give me a third straight victory on my complimentary selections, and my eighth win in my last 11 plays. I know St. Louis is laying a big price today, but it will be well worth the money as this one is going to be a rout!

Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter (11-3, 2.26 ERA) has been sharp in his last seven starts, going 6-0 with a 2.04 ERA. He allowed four runs and nine hits in eight innings Friday at Pittsburgh, which basically was his second-worst start of the season and demonstrates how great he has been this year.
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The right-hander has completely dominated the Reds, going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA in his last three outings against them, including 2-0 with a 1.12 this season.

Homer Bailey (2-3, 7.11), the Reds' first-round draft pick in 2004, continues to struggle on the mound. The 23-year-old right-hander allowed five runs and nine hits in six innings Friday at San Francisco, and has allowed at least five runs in four of his last five outings.

Bailey is 0-2 with a 8.59 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cards, and is 1-1 with a 7.32 ERA in four road starts this year. While Cincinnati beat St. Louis 5-4 on Tuesday, the Cardinals have won 10 of their last 14 games and should have this one in hand by the fourth or fifth inning.
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Carpenter is 6-1 with a 1.62 ERA in seven home starts. Those numbers will only improve today. Take St. Louis on the run line.

5♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:54 am
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Chris Jordan

Toronto at N.Y. YANKEES
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As I told you yesterday with my paid-analysis, the Yankees are the hottest team in baseball and came into this series on a 31-10 run. You see how they kept battling to get us the run-line win last night ... even Hideki Matsui got a home run (not a big fan of his).

I don’t think the Jays stand a chance in this series after last night.

In sending AJ Burnett to the hill, the Yanks continue with the same foursome that swept the Red Sox over the weekend. Last night Chamberlain eventually struggled, tonight it will be Burnett dominating his former team.
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Burnett allowed just one hit, though he walked six, and took a no-decision in the Yankees' thrilling 15-inning, 2-0 victory. The right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA in five starts since the break and last faced the Jays on July 3, in New York, where he threw seven innings of two-run ball in a 4-2 win

I've become a big fan of Ricky Romero, but he's going to get rocked in a matinee at Yankee Stadium. He comes in after picking up his second loss in a stellar 11-start stretch. Against the lowly Orioles, Romero surrendered four runs on five hits over six innings. The defeat snapped a three-game winning streak for the young lefty. To have to come back against a red-hot Yankees team is beyond comprehension.
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Take the Bombers on the Run Line again.

1♦ YANKEES -1.5

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:55 am
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Brad Diamond
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Play: Florida over Houston
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Right-hander Ricky Nolasco has been on fire of late for the Marlins and last time out took apart the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. In fact, the Fish are a perfect 5-0 as a home chalk in this price range with Nolasco and 5-1 with 4 days of rest. Plus, the Marlins have won 7 straight at home against the visiting Astros.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:57 am
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JIM FEIST
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS / NEW YORK YANKEES
Take TORONTO BLUE JAYS
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Toronto has had a nice run, taking two in a row from the Orioles before upsetting the Yankees in Game 1 of this series. Lefty Ricky Romero has been very good all season, at 10-5 with a 3.66 ERA. He's already beaten the Yankees once this season, allowing 3 runs in 6+ innings, and the team is 7-3 his last 10 starts. A.J. Burnett is just 1-1 against his old team this season, with a 4.30 ERA. The visitors are a very live dog. Play the Blue Jays.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:58 am
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DAVE COKIN
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / CHICAGO CUBS
Take PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
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I had the Phillies for my 10 Star play on Tuesday and they came through with the victory. Pedro Martinez makes his anticipated return here and he draws Jeff Samardzija as an opponent. I have to give Pedro the edge on the mound and with the streaky Phillies finally back in the win column, look for them to get the job done again today.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 7:58 am
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MTi Sports
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Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Nationals are 0-15 THIS season after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and the Braves are 7-0 at home after a win in which they drew 5+ walks and 13-0 as a 200+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start. Consider Atlanta.

 
Posted : August 12, 2009 8:13 am
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