Jimmy Moore
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Texas @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
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The Indians have been playing surprisingly well lately and Carmona will be ready to have a good outing to keep that run going. Texas is getting to the end of a road trip and they go home to face the Boston Red Sox later this week. They will not be fully focused in this one.
Tom Freese
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Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Under
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Chicago is 7-0 UNDER their last 7 games as road underdogs and they are 12-3-1 UNDER vs. AL West teams. The White Sox are 12-3 UNDER with Mark Buehrle as a road underdog and they are 6-0 UNDER their last 6 road games vs. righty starters. Seattle is 10-1 UNDER on Wednesday and they are 22-6-1 UNDER as favorites of -110 to -150. The Mariners are 9-4 UNDER in the last 13 starts made by Felix Hernandez and they are 9-4 UNDER with Hernandez in Game 3 of a series. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
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After posting a shutout win of their own Sunday, over the Angels, it was the Rangers bats that went silent Tuesday in a 7-0 loss to the Indians. Cleveland is playing relatively well right now, but starter Fausto Carmona has been pretty awful all season long. Furthermore, the Tribe is just 20-30 since 1997 at home following a shutout victory. They have also bled money vs. righties all season long. Texas roughed up Carmona for six runs in 5 IP last time they saw him.
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Play on: Texas
LT Profits
Houston at Florida
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Bud Norris of the Houston Astros has made a splash while winnings his first two Major League starts, but the more experienced Ricky Nolasco of the Florida Marlins is also in great form, so we will back the red-hot Fish here.
The Marlins have thrust themselves right into the National League East race with their current five-game winning streak, first sweeping a three-game series from the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies on the road and then winning the first two games of this series here at home.
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Nolasco was considered the ace of the Florida staff at the beginning of this season, and after a slow start, he is now showing why. He has now recorded four consecutive Quality Starts, allowing a total of just five runs in 27.1 innings over those outings while not surrendering more than two runs in any start. He also had a Quality Start the last time he faced the Astros, allowing two runs and six hits in seven innings last September.
Now Norris as been sensational, tossing seven shutout innings and allowing only two hits vs. the St. Louis Cardinals in his debut, and then following that up by allowing two runs and three hits in six innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. Breaking into the majors is not supposed to be this easy however, and Norris is now facing a scorching Florida lineup that is averaging a whopping 6.50 runs over the last 10 games with a fat .313 team batting average.
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Look for the Marlins to bring Norris back to earth and for Nolasco to maintain his fine form.
Pick: Marlins -1.5
Yankee Capper
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Arizona Diamondbacks -165
Texas Rangers -115
LA Angels +115
Pittsburgh Pirates +230
Craig Trapp
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -1½
Love COL as lately they have been pitching great and hitting the cover off the ball. Also PIT is horrible on the road and only won 2 of last 10 games. Jimenez goes for COL today and tries to keep up his hot pitching streak, as he has gone 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last five starts, striking out 33 in 34 2/3 innings. The right-hander gave up two runs and walked five over 6 2/3 innings in beating the Cubs 6-2 on Friday night. Hart goes for PIT today and he has only had one start since the trade from the Cubs. It was not a terrible outing as he went 6 innings allowing 3 runs with a no decision. This game will be one at the plate as COL has been one of the top run producers this month averaging over 5.5 runs per game, tonight that number will be eclipsed in a total blowout. SCORE COL 7 - PIT 2
Dave Malinsky
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Kansas City Royals
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The Twins bring a losing record to the table, and after 21 starts and 118.1 innings, the 4-11/5.63 of Francisco Liriano is simply who he is. That is not exactly the kind of package that should be favored in this range, and with last night’s Kansas City blowout to open the series not only raising the confidence level of the Royals, but also creating fatigue ratings across a Minnesota bullpen that will be needed this evening, we have plenty to work with here.
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At this point there simply is not a tangible reason to expect Liriano to regain that magical 12-3/2.16 form of 2006. That is a distant memory. His last win came in June, and his 0-2/6.61 since the All Star break actually shows a decline from previous outings, instead of stepping up. He has twice been given 10 days off between starts over the past month, but instead of making him stronger it has thrown him even further out of rhythm. In his last four outings he has only burned through 21.2 innings, and that becomes a real problem after a Monday fiasco in which Brian Duensing (1.2 innings and 59 pitches), Bobby Keppel (2.2 and 40), Jesse Crain (1.2 and 31) and Jose Mijaries (1.1 and 24) all created fatigue ratings. At 2-8 overall in their last 10 games, this Team + Pitcher combination does not merit anywhere near the price range being called for.
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Brian Bannister has worked to a competitive 7-8/3.97 for the Royals, and note how well they have been swinging the bats of late, scoring in double figures in two of the last three games, and scoring six or more in five of seven over the last three series. This will be the fourth time in seven games they have gone up against a left-handed starter, which eases the adjustments, and with Monday off, plus that big working margin last night, the bullpen is also positioned much better than their Minnesota counterparts.
Tom Stryker
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
San Diego has taken three out of four in this series including yesterday's 13-6 laugher at Miller Park. With losses in six of their last 10 games and resting 6.5 games behind St. Louis in the NL Central standings, the Brewers know they must kick it up a notch.
To help get things turned around the Brew Crew will send right hander Carlos Villanueva to the mound. I realize that Milwaukee has dropped eight of Carlos' last night starts. However, No. 12's last two trips to the mound weren't all that bad. On foreign soil against the Astros and Padres, Villanueva was nipped for four earned runs and eight hits in 10.1 innings of work. That's good enough for a respectable 3.48 ERA!
San Diego will counter with veteran righty Kevin Correia. In his last three starts against the Mets, Brewers and Reds, Correia has pitched well allowing five earned runs and 15 hits in 18.1 frames. Unfortunately, I'm not in love with Kevin's efforts on the road. As a guest, No. 29 has struggled allowing 33 earned runs and 62 hits in 55.2 frames. That's bad enough for a 4-5 overall record and an elevated 5.34 ERA!
There are a couple of solid team trends that support this investment too. The Padres have slipped in 77 of their last 109 priced as a road pup and 17 of their last 25 coming off a straight up win. Tie that up with the fact that San Diego has dropped 35 of its last 51 on the road and you have all the arsenal needed to make this play. Take Milwaukee with listed pitcher Villanueva.
Spartan
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Detroit at Boston
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I'm suggesting a wager on the Red Sox as they continue their series with the Tigers. Red Sox are settling back into playing solid ball after the recent rough road trip to Tampa and New York. They are making the most of this short homestand before heading to Texas this weekend. I look for them to continue their success tonight behind Josh Beckett and am suggesting a Run Line play on it. Josh Beckett takes the ball tonight and he was guilt free from the loss in Yankee Stadium last week and he contributed 7 shut out innings to the cause before exiting. When working at home in Fenway this season Josh sports a perfect 7-0 mark with a 2.58 era in 10 starts. Hard to go against that. The Tigers Armando Galarraga, 6-10, 5.23 get's the unlucky draw here tonight. As we all saw yesterday weird things can happen but I just feel the Sox on the Run Line is the logical play here guys.
ATS Consultants
Cleveland Indians/Texas Rangers UNDER 9.5
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Good pitching matchup tonight at The Jake. Texas sends rookie Tommy Hunter to the mound to oppose Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona. Texas is in playoff contention, while Cleveland is playing out the string and trying to establish a foundation for 2010 and beyond.
Hunter (4-2, 2.63) has been a real find for the Rangers. So much that they recently released Vincente Padilla, a double figure game winner in 2008 to solidify Hunter’s spot in the rotation. Hunter is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last 5 starts. He’s never faced the Indians in his brief MLB career.
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Carmona (2-6, 6.66) fianlly appears back in form after an awful 2008, and an even worse start to this season. He was sent down to single A to basically start over, but has worked his way back into the Major League rotation and is showing signs of life his last few efforts. Since his return to the rotation on July 31, he’s only allowed 3 runs in 11 innings pitched. Cleveland hopes he has turned it around completely allowing him to anchor the rotation in 2010.
Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5
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Two aces take the mound tonight in Seattle with Mark Buehrle taking on Felix Hernandez. On the surface, this matchup screams under, but looking inside the numbers says something completely opposite.
Buehrle pitched a perfect game a few weeks ago, but since then he’s been awful with a capital A. He’s allowed 17 runs on 23 hits in his last 19 innings pitched. A far cry from that perfect game a few weeks ago. He’s 11-6 with a 3.89 ERA for the season, but will have stop this slide if the Sox are to contend with the Tigers in the AL Central.
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Hernandez (12-4, 2.84) has been mostly brilliant in 2009, but he’s began to hit the wall of late also. He’s allowed 12 runs in his last 18 innings of work and 22 hits in that span. Seattle is barely hanging on in the Wild Card race and need the pitching to step up the rest of the way.
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Very fair price, at home no less, on Mariners ace Felix Hernandez here as the oddsmakers are probably still giving Mark Buehrle too much respect thanks to his perfect game last month. However, Buehrle is far more effective at US Cellular Field than on the road where he has posted a 4.81 ERA. The ChiSox southpaw has been dreadful over his last three starts, losing all of them, thanks to an 8.35 ERA. In a little more than 18 IP over that span, he?s allowed 28 hits and 17 runs. Ouch. Hernandez has a 2.84 ERA in 23 starts this year, including eight scoreless innings of four hit ball vs. the Pale Hose back in April. Take Seattle.
GoodFella
TEX (-115) vs CLE
Good bounceback spot for Texas tonight, as last night was a big letdown spot coming off the huge series at the Angels. I am not sold one bit on Carmona and I know he pitched well in his L/start vs Minny. He has not faced very well vs Texas, as he is 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.396 in 6 starts vs them in his career. Carmona has also struggled big time at home for the year: 7 starts, 0-3 record, 5.05 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.822!!!!! For Texas, Tommy Hunter takes the ball, and Cleveland has never seen him before, avantage Texas and Hunter. Hunter has been outstanding in his 2 road starts: 1-0, 1.38 ERA, and a WHIP of 0.923. I look for Texas to bounceback in this spot tonight and get the Win over Carmona and the Tribe.
King Creole
FLA / HOU Under 8.5
First two games of this series were high-scoring (14 and 17 runs). But the brakes will be applied tonight down here in beautiful South Florida.... with a couple of 'in-form' starting pitchers and a matching Home Plate UMPIRE with low-scoring current tendencies.
JIM JOYCE gets the call behind this dish. He enters with an 8-14-1 O/U record on the year. But what's even MORE important (just like the starters), is Joyce's CURRENT form. He's gone 1-8 O/U in his last 9 games dating back to the middle of the month of June. Average combined runs-per-game during that 1-8 O/U streak is only 7.6 rune per game... and that's even factoring in the fact that there were 19 runs scored in his only "Over". We also note that Joyce has gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in all Houston Astros games in the last 3 years... and is 1-3 O/U "In THIS park" in the last 4 seasons.
Bud Norris has looked sharp for the 'Stros in his two starts thus far in the 2009 season. ERA is 1.38.... OU record is 0-1-1 O/U. In his only road start, he BLANKED The mighty Cardinals, shutting them out in 7 innings of work.
Ricky Nolasco of our home-town Marlins is off 4 straight GREAT starts in a row, with an ERA of only 1.64.... and a PERFECT 0-4 O/U record. His record in his last 7 home starts is 1-6 O/U and he's 0-5 O/U in Game Three of a series.
Mike Rose
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Play: Under 7.5
Buehrle hasnt looked like an 11-game winner ever since he tossed MLBs 18th perfect game back on July 23rd. Hes 0-3 since with an 8.35 ERA his L/3 outings and has gotten rocked allowing 28 hits and 17 ERs with a poor K/BB ratio of 5/4 through 18.1 innings of work. Chicago is 6-3 in his nine starts as a visitor where hes 4-3 with a 4.81 ERA & 1.21 WHIP with a K/BB ratio of 32/8. Theyve lost each of his L/2 starts on the road, but they were at Minnesota and the Palehose NEVER win there. Lifetime against the Mariners, Buehrle is 7-4 with a 4.02 ERA in 14 games
Seattles ace, Felix Hernandez, has fallen upon hard times recently as well. He was on the hook for the loss against the Tampa Bay Rays until some late game heroics by his teammates earned him the no decision. In his L/3 outings, Felix is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA and has allowed 22 hits, 12 ERs, and 11 walks through just 18.2 total innings of work. He has been at his best however under the bright lights at night where hes 11-3 with a miniscule 2.71 ERA with a K/BB ratio of 140/43. He dominated the White Sox limiting them to four hits and no runs through eight innings in his April 28th start against them this season; in his career vs. Chicago hes 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA & 1.43 WHIP in six starts.
Red flags go up and alarms sound when I see a total posted this low with each starter going through some rough times. It only means one thing Safecos in for a pitchers duel between a pair of staff aces.
Scott Rickenbach
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Under 9
We used the over in the Twins/Royals match-up yesterday and it was the highest scoring game on the board and flew over the total early. However, in this spot we come right back with the under in today’s match-up. The difference here will be a strong start from both Brian Bannister of the Royals and Francisco Liriano of the Twins. This also will minimize the impact of either bullpen because, as noted yesterday, each of these pens has had some struggles recently.
Although the Royals erupted for 14 runs yesterday, they generally don’t hit near as well on the road as they do at home. This has played a key role in them going 30-18 to the under this season in road games. Look for a return to “normalcy” this evening at the Metrodome. As for the Twins, they have been prone to struggle against subpar teams this season – going 22-27 against teams with a losing record. However, unlike yesterday’s game, this has generally resulted in unders for the Twins. When playing a team that is below .500 on the season, Minnesota has gone 31-17 to the under. As for Bannister, he’s coming off of a rough start but he had allowed two earned runs or less in 13 of his first 20 starts this season. Start #22 will go much better than #21 did. As for Liriano, April and May were two months he’d rather forget. However, before his most recent two starts, he had gone on a stretch where 7 of his 8 starts saw him allow just three earned runs or less! Also, he’s been very tough at the Metrodome (3.08 ERA) throughout his career! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Minnesota on Wednesday night!