Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August, 15

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles and Red Sox meet in Game Two of this three-game series at Camden Yards Wednesday night where Miguel Gonzalez matches serves with Aaron Cook. Gonzalez toes the slab with wins in each of his last team starts knowing the Birds have beat up on the Bosox in 10 of the last 14 meetings in this series. On the flip side, Cook offers up perhaps the softest serves in the bigs with 7 walks and only 6 strikeouts in his nine starts this season. With Cook just 2-8 in his last 10 away team starts during the month of August, look for Cook to dip to 0-4 in division team starts this season, and Gonzalez to 5-1 at night here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.

Scott Spreitzer

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Texas Rangers continue to underwhelm against teams with winning records, well below .500 against these squads since June 1. Texas has been atop the AL West thanks to the fact they have taken care of business against the teams they're supposed to beat, while the Angels and A's have not. Scott Feldman takes the bump for the Rangers in this one having allowed 26 earned runs in his last 36 innings on the road. Struggling away from home is nothing new for the righty...he owns a hefty 5.33 ERA & 1.49 WHIP in 98 career appearances on the road. Feldman has made two starts in the Bronx, getting smacked for 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in just 8 2/3 innings. The Yankees are averaging nearly 5 rpg against righties and I expect more of the same in this one. Freddy Garcia toes the rubber for the home team tonight. Garcia has zero walks in three of his last four starts, which keeps the righty out of trouble - even against strong lineups. Texas enters on a 7-20 slide as an underdog of +1.50 or smaller and they have won just 4 of their last 17 when Feldman starts against a team with a winning record. I'm laying the price with the Yankees as they look to extend their run to 8-0 in their last eight home games against Texas.

Hollywood Sports

Indians at Angels
Prediction: Over

Cleveland (54-63) lost the first game of this series by a 9-6 score last night -- and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Indians have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog. They send out Hernandez here who may not be a familiar name until you remember that Hernandez was caught in the Dominican Republic in the offseason of committing identity theft under the name Fausto Carmona. It turns out that the 31-year old is actually three years older than he was claiming as Carmona. Unfortunately, you may remember Carmona's 7-15 record along with his 5.25 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 2011. This is the right-hander's first start this season after serving his time for this offense and then being suspended for three weeks by MLB. The Indians have played 12 of their last 16 road ames Over the Total with Hernandez facing a team with a winning record. Los Angeles (61-56) has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they scored at least five runs. The Angels have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against a team with a losing record. They counter with Santana who is 5-10 with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season. Los Angeles has played 6 straight games Over the Total with Santana pitching with the number in the 9-10.5 range. The Angels have also played 4 straight games Over the Total with Santana facing a team with a losing record.

MTi Sports

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Here's one from the archives that was published in an earlier MLB Handicapping Bible. It reads: PHI003: The Phillies are 18-0 (+3.7 rpg) as a favorite of more than 110 when they are off a win in which they scored first and did not score after the third inning. The Phillies are currently 20-0 in this spot. Consider Philadelphia over the Marlins.

Ben Burns

Boston vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

The Orioles won yesterday's series opener by a score of 7-1. They're now a profitable 7-3 (+6.1) in the season series. The O's have got a starter in much better current form going today and I feel they're again providing us with fairly decent value.

Gonzalez has pitched well and he's been at his best recently. In seven starts, he's 4-2 (team is 5-2, +5.7) with a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Over his last two starts, he's allowed only one run in 15 innings, winning 7-1 and 8-0. Prior to that, he beat the Yankees 5-4, striking out eight and walking none. Today, he'll have the advantage of starting against Boston for the first time.

Cook also came through with a strong effort last time out. However, he'd been rocked in each of his previous starts, so still has an ugly 7.47 ERA and 1.659 WHIP over his last three outings.

Speaking of "getting rocked," that's exactly what happened to Cook in his lone start against Baltimore. In that 5/5 outing, Cook lasted only 2 2/3 innings. During that stretch, he gave up seven runs, six of them earned, on eight hits. He walked a batter and allowed a home run, while failing to record a strikeout. That translates to a 20.22 ERA and 3.371 WHIP! Consider Baltimore.

Jesse Schule

Chi. White Sox vs. Toronto
Pick: Chi. White Sox

The White Sox have split their first two games in Toronto, with the Blue Jays taking the series opener by a score of 3-2, and the Sox winning last night by the same score. Chicago will be in a good spot to take game three of this series, as they take on an injury riddled Blue Jays team with a struggling pitcher on the mound tonight.

Rickey Romero will get the nod for the Blue Jays this evening, and he is currently in the midst of the longest losing streak of his career. Romero (8-9, 5.32 ERA) hasn't recorded a victory since June 22, and he is 0-8 with a 7.26 ERA in nine starts since then. He allowed three runs on four hits over seven innings, while walking three and only recording two strikeouts, losing 10-4 to New York in his last start. He was much worse in his previous start at home, when he allowed eight runs on four hits, walking six batters and leaving the game early in the second inning, losing 16-0 to Oakland.

Romero has struggled with his control, walking 15 batters over his last four starts. He doesn't appear to have the ability to throw strikes consistently at the moment, and when he does, hitters are jumping all over them.

Chicago will counter with Gavin "Pretty Boy" Floyd, who is coming off a quality start in his last outing. Floyd (8-9, 4.43 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits, including a homer, over seven innings in a 4-3 win over Oakland in his last start. Like Romero, Floyd has also struggled with his command, and he has issued 18 walks in his last four starts. That being said, while it hasn't exactly been pretty, Floyd has pitched more innings over those starts than Romero, and he is 1-1 during that span while Romero is 0-3.

Neither of these pitchers have been on top of their game in recent outings, however Romero has been the weaker of the two, and the White Sox have a lot more "pop" in their lineup than the Blue Jays, with all their recent injury troubles.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Chicago White Sox

Chicago fits a nice 14-3 system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a road favored win if they scored 4 or less runs and hit 10 or less fly balls and 8 or more ground balls, vs an opponent off a home dog loss and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits. Chicago has won 4 of 5 on turf this season. Gavin Floyd is on the mound and his road era is lower than the 5.21 home era that his counterpart Romero has. Floyd has one solid start already this season shutting the Jays down for nearly 8 innings back on July 7th. Look for Chicago to win this one tonight. For Wednesday there are 3 Never lost system plays up. Two are totals, one is the total of the week

Jim Feist

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: San Diego Padres

Hard throwing Edinson Volquez has fanned 128 in 138 innings and likes facing the Braves, with a 2.86 ERA against them fanning 29 in 22 innings. The Padres are playing well, under the radar while winning 7 of 8 games recently. And the Padres are 5-1 in Volquez's last 6 road starts. Atlanta goes with Paul Maholm, a 10-game winner but the Padres have had his number. He's 0-4 in his career against them with a 4.86 ERA, plus the Padres are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings with Atlanta. Play the Padres.

Dave Cokin

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Oakland Athletics

Will Smith has been okay lately for KC, but they're a shaky host and a healthy Brandon McCarthy should be able to shut the Royals down. I'll side with the A's tonight.

Tony Karpinski

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Mark Buehrle has been struggling lately allowing four runs on seven hits over six innings of a 5-2 loss to the Dodgers on Friday. The southpaw has gone winless in his last five outings and the Marlins offense has been awful getting shutout in 3 straight games. The Phillies counter with Halladay who has gotten back on track by allowing one run, five hits and one walk over 15 innings in his two games this month.The Phils have won 3 straight and I'll back them this afternoon in the early day start.

MLB Predictions

Baltimore Orioles -123

Baltimore took the first game of this series last night with a 7-1 victory. The Orioles are now 8-2 over their last 10 games and are 63-53 on the season (31-28 at home) sitting in an AL Wild Card spot. The Red Sox are 57-60 on the year after last night's loss and are 2-5 over their past 7 games. Boston has Aaron Cook on the mound tonight to fill in for Felix Doubront who will skip a start. Cook is 3-5 on the season with a 4.70 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .276 opponents batting average. In his last start he allowed juts 1 earned run over 7 innings at home against Texas, but in his previous two starts he went 4.0 and 4.2 innings allowing 12 earned runs combined. Baltimore has Miguel Gonzalez on the rubber who is 4-2 on the season with a 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .233 opponents batting average. Over his last two starts he has pitched a combined 15 innings allowing just 8 hits and 1 earned run against. Take note that the Red Sox are just 4-10 in their last 14 games as a road underdog, 6-13 in their last 19 games as an underdog overall, and 1-4 in their last 5 games vs a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 7-2 in their last 9 home games, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 6-2 in their last 8 vs divisional opponents, and 4-1 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts. Head to head the Orioles have gone 11-4 in their last 15 meetings. Everyone is just waiting for this Baltimore team to fade but they continue to play solid baseball, and I like them get things done tonight behind Gonzalez who has been impressive.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +118 over CHICAGO

The Astros unleashed three months of frustration yesterday with their first lopsided win in a long time. Houston has now won three of its last five, scoring 6, 4 and 10 runs respectively in those three wins.

Bud Norris as a +118 pooch against 30-year-old career minor leaguer pitching for the 45-70 Cubs is ridiculous. Norris is significantly better than his 4.93 ERA and 1.41 WHIP might reflect. Few starters show the dominance and command that Norris owns vs. RH bats and the Cubs mostly bat that way. Norris has 68 K’s with just 9 walks vs. righties compared to 41 base on balls vs. lefties. That disparity vs. lefties has been his downfall. Overall, Norris has 125 K’s in 122 innings and an xERA of 3.28. There's a lot of upside here.

The Cubs are Justin Germano’s sixth team since 2004. He had one season with 20+ starts and that was back in 2007 as a Padre when he posted a 4.46 ERA that year. Germano has started a mere 39 games in his career, and the results have been an uninspiring 9-22 record with a 4.68 ERA. Norris and the ‘Stros offer up significant value in this one.

Cleveland +154 over L.A. ANGELS

In case you can’t find information on Indians starter Roberto Hernandez, let us bring you up to speed. Formerly known as Fausto Carmona, Hernandez was arrested in the Dominican Republic back in January outside the U.S. consulate as he tried to renew his visa. That's when it was discovered his name was Hernandez and that he is 31-years-old, three years older than listed. He comes off his suspension to make this start and it’s worth noting he received a warm and hero-like welcome from all his teammates. They’ll be extra jacked here in support of their long standing mate.

In four rehab starts covering 24 innings, Hernandez struck out 20 and walked four. Despite ugly outward stats of 7-15, 5.25 ERA in 2011, Hernandez deserved better (xERA 3.95), as he was hurt by a 64% strand rate. Given his historic extreme-ground-ball rate of 56% and low line drive rate, better results await.

The Angels second half push hasn't exactly gone as planned, as they are only 13-16 since the All-Star break. Earvin Santana has been hit hard all season long. He has 47 walks and just 87 K’s in 128 innings to go along with a 5.82 ERA. Santana is 1-8 in 13 career starts versus the Indians, including two losses this season. In his last start against them on July 4, he gave up eight earned runs in 1.1 IP. Pitching for the underachieving and uninspired Halos, Santana doesn’t deserve this billing.

Matt Fargo

Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore won its second straight game Tuesday and is now 6-2 on its current homestand and looking back further, it is 11-4 in its last 15 games. The Orioles remain tied with Tampa Bay for the two American League Wild Card spots and the pitching that went south for a while has recovered by allowing three runs or fewer nine times over the recent 15-game stretch. Miguel Gonzalez has been quietly pitching solid under the radar as he has a 3.42 ERA and through seven starts, he has only one truly bad outing. He has allowed three runs or less in five of those seven starts and has tossed two straight quality outings in a row. This is his first start against Boston which is a big edge. The Red Sox are a mess right now as off the field bickering has added to what has been a disappointing season. They are now 2-5 in their last seven games while going back further they are 4-9 in their last 13 games. They have played better on the road as they are still over .500 but they have gotten little out of it. Aaron Cook put together a very solid run but has since slowed down despite a quality outing in his last start. He has a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts and his worst game of the season came in his very first start with Boston as he allowed six earned runs on eight hits in just 2.2 innings and that is significant because it came against the Orioles. That is not a good thing to have in the memory bank.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 +130

The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 games against the Diamondbacks. These wins have come by an average of 3.67 runs and the last 5 wins have all come by 2 runs or more.

Arizona's Joe Saunders has struggled, especially on the road where the D-backs have lost 5 of his last 6 starts. 4 of these 5 losses have come by at least 2 runs.

St. Louis' Wainwright is starting to resemble the ace he was a couple seasons back. He's been especially good lately at home, where the Cards have won his last 4 starts by 2 runs or more. Take St. Louis on the run line.