Jack Jones
Los Angeles Dodgers -135
The Los Angeles Dodgers were the biggest winners at the trade deadline, and it's really starting to pay off. The Dodgers improved their line-up, and they've won five of their last six while scoring 5 or more runs in all five victories.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have gone in the opposite direction since the deadline. They have lost five of their last six while getting shut out twice. They're clearly starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the postseason.
Rarely will you ever get 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw at this kind of price. Kershaw is 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.672 WHIP in his last three.
The Pirates picked up Wandy Rodriquez before the deadline, and he's been a disappointment so far. Rodriquez is 7-11 with a 3.91 ERA in 24 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his last three.
Kershaw is 12-1 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Pirates are 13-38 in their last 51 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Bet the Dodgers Wednesday.
Scott Delaney
Last night I told you I loved the American League Central Division-leading Chicago White Sox, specifically because the Toronto Blue Jays were handing the ball to Henderson Alvarez. Tonight I am in the same series, and love the Jays over the South Siders. I know the Jays have lost seven of 11 and have sunk to the cellar of the A.L. East, but this is a good spot for them.
Ricky Romero has now thrown three consecutive quality starts but hasn't earned a victory since June 22. So I think he's going to be hungry enough to last in this one, and put his team in position to win. He should get the run support he'll need, against Gavin Floyd, who is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in his last three starts. And lifetime against the Jays, he is 1-5 with a 5.82 ERA
My money is on the Blue Jays
3♦ TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Chuck O'Brien
My free winner tonight is on the Washington Nationals in San Francisco, as I think Stephen Strasburg is the right side against Giants-ace Tim Lincecum. As the national media continues to buzz around Washington's fireballer, and the season-inning count he is being limited to, I have to think he's going to be at his best, and will want to finish his last couple starts on top.
It's what makes this start so compelling, since he's up against Lincecum, and the fact Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo is the only one in the team's braintrust, who truly knows when Strasburg will be shut down. He's currently at 133-1/3 innings.
Strasburg is in after giving up one run on one hit in a win over Arizona on Friday. Pitching with a stiff back, he struck out six in his 12th six-inning start this year. He is on a 3-0 run with a stifling 0.95 ERA in his last three starts on the road.
On July 3, the Nationals tagged Lincecum for seven earned runs in 3-1/3 innings. Lincecum has struggled with his confidence all season, and has compiled a 6-12 record with a 5.35 ERA.
Take the Nationals and list both.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Craig Davis
Today's free play is Seattle over Tampa Bay.
The Seattle Mariners only wish they had five Felix Hernandez' in the rotation... because then there's a good chance we'd be talking about the Mariners and the playoffs in the same sentence.
Hernandez brings his 10-5 record and his 2.74 ERA into this game against the Rays knowing that Tampa is in the mix for a Wild Card berth... and since the Mariners can't make it, they'd like nothing more than to start playing spoiler the rest of the way.
Why not start now?
For starters, Seattle is one of the few teams in baseball that has a better road record than home record. Secondly, the Mariners continue to give Felix Hernandez run support when he needs it and even when he doesn't.
Hernandez has a 1.74 ERA in his last seven starts in the series, and is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in seven career home starts against Tampa Bay with Seattle winning each time. It's just amazing what this guys has been doing year in and year out, despite the fact they've been losing year in and year out.
And then factor in guys like Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist absolutely struggling against Harnandez in their careers, it doesn't make Rays fans very happy. In Hernandez's lone start of the season against the Rays at Tropicana Field on April 30, he gave up one run and five hits with nine strikeouts in eight innings of Seattle's 3-2, 12-inning loss.
How can you not be convinced? As good as Jeremy Hellickson is, Hernandez is better and the Mariners will win this game in a very close manor.
2♦ SEATTLE
Chris Jordan
So I like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are rolling on this ever-important road trip, after winning the first two games of their crucial series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
In a complete pitching mismatch, I like Dodgers-ace Clayton Kershaw, who retired 14 straight at one point last week in his last start, defeating the Marlins in a game he described as a battle all night. Known as an absolute perfectionist, he ranks among league leaders in just about every key starting stat.
And the fact he is 0-1 lifetime against the Bucs, something tells me he will be out to win this one tonight.
He's up against Wandy Rodriguez, who is still looking for his first win in a Pirates uniform, since arriving from Houston. And it's not that he's pitched poorly in three appearances for the Pirates, but he has posted a 4.74 ERA while lasting at least six innings in each outing.
I don't trust the Bucs here, and think the Dodgers continue to roll.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Dave Price
LA Dodgers -135
The Dodgers are surging, having won 5 of 6, while the Pirates are slumping, having dropped 5 of 6. Dating back to last season, the Dodgers have won 8 in a row versus Pittsburgh, and I expect them to make it 9 straight behind another dominant performance from ace Clayton Kershaw. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Dodgers are 36-15 in his last 51 starts overall. Take LA.
Dirty
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Dodgers will trot Clayton Kershaw out to the mound in this one. Lefthander Kershaw has a 10-6 record and a 2.88 ERA this season. The Pirates will counter Kershaw with Wandy Rodriguez. Lefthander Rodriguez has a 3.91 ERA to go along with a 7-11 record this season. I know the Pirates are struggling now but this line is 10 cents too high IMO and too much value to pass up
Rocketman
Cleveland @ LA Angels
Play: Cleveland +156
Cleveland takes on the LA Angels in the third and final game of this three game series. The LA Angels are 4-9 in the month of August so far. The LA Angels are allowing 6.7 runs per game their past seven games overall. Ervin Santana is 5-10 with a 5.82 ERA overall this year and 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA at home this season. Santana is 1-8 with a 5.03 ERA in all starts vs Cleveland in his career. Cleveland has won 6 of their last 8 games against the AL West Division. Cleveland is 4-1 last 5 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 when Hernandez starts. LA Angels are 3-9 last 12 games as a favorite. LA Angels are 8-18 last 26 games when Santana starts. LA Angels are 3-13 last 16 games when Santana starts on 4 days rest. Angels are 3-10 last 13 games when Santana starts against Cleveland. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Philadelphia -140 over MIAMI: I know that DR Ed posted this query earlier and while I don't always use the ones he posts I will because It really backs my play on the Phils. Let's also note that the Phils are 8-0 when Halladay starts as a favorite and they have won at least their last 3 in a row. The Phils are playing very good right now and are off two straight shutouts of the Fish. Last night was actually Miami's 3 straight game being shutout. they can't hit at all and losing Ramirez has made this offense even more stagnant than before. Miami has struggled to score at home, but in their last 11 games here they have put up just 2.3 rpg, nad they have scored just 9 runs in the first 5 games of this homestand. Getting that offense going today vs Halladay may not be easy. Roy is starting to pitch well as he has allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts. He faced Miami earlier this year and allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings of work, while in his 9 starts vs them as a Phil, his team is 6-3 and he has a 2.05 ERA in those 9 starts. The Phils offense is not great but should get to face a struggling Buehrle, who comes in with an 0-3 mark and a 6.84 ERA in his last 5 starts. Phils should get enough off of him for the win. The Fish are really floundering right now (Pun Intended) as they have gone 5-11 in their last 16 games, while the Phils are building momentum for next year going 7-3 in their last 10 games and I expect both trends to continue here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2010 the Phils are 20-0 when they are favorites of 110+ and off a win in which they scored first but not after the 3rd inning.
Washington/ San Francisco Over 6.5: Google News Play I know that Tim has pitched well of late, but even in his best days as a San Fran starter he has struggled with this team, posting a 7.52 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, with 9 or more runs being scored in 4 of the 5 games. Both of his last 2 starts here vs them there has been at least 9 runs scored and he has allowed 10 ER's in 9.2 innings over the two starts. The Nats offense has been getting better this year and they did score 14 runs in game 1 of this series. Washington scores 4.7 rpg on the road, but have put up 5.7 rpg in the first 9 games of this trip so far. The San Fran offense has troubles scoring at home, where they average just 3.4 rpg, but they are getting healthy and have put up 6.5 rpg in their last 4 here. Overall the San Fran offense is coming together as they have averaged a very nice 5.6 rpg in their last 10 games. Strasburg is tough and has a 2.41 ERA on the road, but we also know that he will be in their for no more than 6 innings and the Nats pen has a 3.22 ERA on the road. Both offenses are hot and should be able to at least grab 3 runs each vs these starters/ pens.
Tampa Bay/ Seattle Under 6.5: Google News Play Both of these starters have been dominant vs their opponents today as Hernandez comes in with a 1.74 ERA in his last starts vs the Rays and a 1.40 ERA in his last 3 starts here vs them, while Jeremy Hellickson has an 0.92 ERA in 4 career starts vs the M's and in 2 career starts here he has allowed just 2 ER's in 14.1 innings of work. Felix has allowed 2 ER's or less in 8 of his last 10 starts and in his last 10 vs the Rays he has allowed more than 3 ER's just once. The Rays hit anbd score better on the road, where they have a .243 average and score 4.47 rpg, but in 121 AB's vs King Felix, Ray hitters are hitting just .182 and have knocked in a mere 6 runs in those AB's. The Rays have just 4 extra base hits in that stretch and all 4 are doubles. The Mariners have a tone of problems scoring at home, where they average just 3.1 rpg and hit just .205. Vs righties at home they hit just .198 and score 3.49 rpg. Let's also note that Tampa Bay day games have gone 25-14 to the Under, while Seattle day games have gone 23-11 to the Under. This park gives up a total of 6.3 rpg and with these two starters on the mound and some weak offense I find uit hard to believe these teams will even hit 6 runs, especially since the last 4 in the series has hit no more than 5 runs. look for the same in this one.
Oakland -116 over KANSAS CITY: The A's have been shutout in their last 2 games in this series, but I expect them to break out today vs actor-turned-pitcher Will Smith (J/K). Smith has really struggled this year with a 3-4 mark and a 5.48 ERA and he is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his 3 home starts this year. The A's have scored 4.5 rpg in their last 10 games and they do average 4.4 rpg on the road, so I do expect them to break back out today after last night's shutout. The Royals offense has stuggled some of late as they have hit just .239 and scored 4.2 rpg in their last 10 games and it won't get easier vs Brandon McCarthy, who will be making his second start since coming off the DL. in his first start back he pitched well, allowing 3 ER's in 6 innings of work at the White Sox. Brandon is 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last 8 starts, while he is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 starts vs the Royals this year. Look for the A's to bounce back tonight as they continue to fight for a playoff spot, while the Royals are just playing out the string.
ATLANTA -168 over San Diego: Get this Padres team away from their big spacious park and they can hit, but they were shutout last night and I see them struggling tonight vs Paul Maholm, who has just been DOMINANT in his last 7 starts. Over that stretch Paul is 5-1 with a skinny 1.39 ERA and 5 of those starts were with a bad Cubs team. He did lose his 1st start for the Braves, but their offense din't help hi as they gave him just 2 runs in the 3-2 loss to Houston. Paul bounced back nicely in his second start with a 3 hit complete game shut out of the Nets in NY. Paul is 0-4 with a 4.86 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Padres, but all starts were as a Cubs and I feel he will be more motivate here as he is now playing for a contending team. San Diego does score nearly 2 rpg more on the road, but do struggle vs lefties away from home, hitting just .224 and scoring 3.2 rp/ 9 innings off of southpaws away from home. The Braves have only given Paul 6 total runs of support in his 2 starts for them, but tat should change here as they will be taking on a struggling Edinson Volquez in this one. Edinson comes in having allowed a whopping 15 ER's in his last 3 starts, spanning just 10 innings of work. He is 4-3 on the road, but with a 5.04 ERA and in his last 2 road starts he is 1-1 with an 11.89 ERA. The Padres play better on the road, but the Braves really need to keep winning. They have a huge edge on the mound and should take this one rather easily.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (30-12 L42) (38-19 +13.11 UNITS)
Since 2006 the Cubs are 23-3 when seeking immediate revenge for a 5+ run loss in which they trailed after at least 6 separate innings and they have not lost their last 4 in a row. Play On Chicago -120 over Houston
Since 2007 the Yankees are 32-4 at home off a win as a favorite of 130 or more in which the scored in at MOST 2 separate innings and it is not game 1 of the series. Play on Yankees -119 over Texas
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -175
The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings and 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in St. Louis. They are are 3-7 in their last 10 overall, 1-5 in Saunders' last 6 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 starts as an underdog. The Cardinals are 18-5 in their last 23 home games, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 home starts. Take the Cardinals on the money line.
Ross King
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Boston clearly has packed in the season already behind their joke of a manager.They are 4-9 cureently in August and their starter Cook is 0-4 5.79 e.r.a in his last 5 starts.Baltimore is right in the playoff race and as a home favorite of -125 to -150 currently 9-4.Take Baltimore who is 7-3 against this Boston team this year behind a starter Gonzalez looking to make a name for himself with a 2-0 and a 2.08 e.r.a in his last 3 starts as your freeplay winner.
Teddy Covers
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto
Pick: Chicago White Sox
It's not hard to make a case for betting against Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero these days. Romero has lost each of his last eight decisions, with a 7.26 ERA since his last win, at Miami back in June. Romero has repeatedly struggled with his control, ranked #4 in all of baseball with 77 walks so far this season. And the White Sox hit lefties hard, scoring more runs per game against southpaws than they do against righties.
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Blue Jays either. Toronto has been riddled with injuries, slumping for weeks. Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind and JP Arencibia are all on the DL right now, and Colby Rasmus has been sidelined with a groin injury. They’ve lost 12 of their last 16 games thanks to an offense that can’t hit, scoring three runs or less 12 times in that 16 game span.
It’s not hard to make a case for supporting the first place White Sox with Gavin Floyd on the mound today. Floyd dominated Toronto in his lone previous start against them this season, holding the Jays to four hits in 7.2 innings of scoreless work. Floyd is in excellent current form, with four quality starts in his last five trips the hill. And Chicago’s win last night was their 13th in their last 20 ballgames; a team with positive momentum and chemistry, unlike their slumping foe. Take Chicago.
Dave Essler
Cincinnati Reds +105
Not unlike the Yankees win the other night when we took them at short money at home, I have to take the Reds at this price. Dickey has thrown a ton of pitches and the Mets bullpen is awful, as we know. I lean pretty hard to the over, as both these pitchers are not auto-outs by any means. If either team had been hitting at ALL I'd do it. We'll see, but the Reds are 37-20 at home. I'll take my chances that three straight 110+ pitches in games by R.A. costs the Mets at some point. I would like to know if Rolen is playing, but I have convinced myself that it should not matter. Seriously bullpen advantage to Cincinnati.
Black Widow
Baltimore Orioles -117
There's a lot of turmoil right now in Boston's clubhouse after reports came out yesterday that several players want Bobby Valentine fired. Meanwhile, Baltimore (63-53) is feeling good about themselves after winning eight of their last 10 games overall. The Orioles are squarely in the middle of the AL Wildcard race and will be focused tonight. Baltimore has an edge on the mound tonight behind Miguel Gonzalez, who is 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.230 WHIP this season. Boston gives the ball to Aaron Cook, who is 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA this year, including 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA in his last three starts. Cook faced Baltimore on 5/5/2012, giving up seven runs and nine base runners over 2 2/3 innings of a 2-8 loss. The Red Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 games as a road underdog. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Baltimore is 23-9 in their last 32 during game 2 of a series. Take the Orioles on the Money Line.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +130 over Arizona
The Diamondbacks can’t get out of St. Louis fast enough. The D-Backs dropped the opener last night 8-2 and made a struggling Joe Kelly look like Bob Gibson. Arizona has now lost six straight to this host. The Cardinals convincingly swept a three-game series vs. Arizona back in May, outscoring them 22-9 in those games. The Cards also lead the NL in runs scored and team batting average.
With their subpar play magnified on the road, the Snakes now have the unenviable task of facing Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is simply one of the best in the business. He has elite stats across the board. The Cardinals have won three of his last four starts while outscoring the opposition 17-4 over that stretch.
Joe Saunders has six wins in 19 starts. He has issued only 30 walks in 120 innings but his strikeout rate of 84 batters is average at best. Saunders pitches to contact. He has an xERA of 4.14. Saunders comes up with a decent effort now and again but history tells us not to expect it. As his innings pile up, he'll show himself to be the same average pitcher he's been throughout his career. The Cardinals have a huge edge on the hill here and should have no problem running this one up as they have commonly done against this foe in the past.