DUNKEL INDEX
Cincinnati at Arizona
The Diamondbacks look to bounce back from yesterday's 6-2 loss and build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. Arizona is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115)
Game 901-902: Milwaukee at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.075; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.247
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-260); Over
Game 903-904: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 15.504; Cubs (Coleman) 15.830
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); N/A
Game 905-906: Florida at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 13.778; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.128
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+170); Over
Game 907-908: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 13.927; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.089
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under
Game 909-910: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 13.500; Atlanta (Hudson) 16.159
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-230); Over
Game 911-912: NY Mets at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 15.689; Houston (Myers) 14.869
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over
Game 913-914: Cincinnati at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.908; Arizona (Lopez) 15.215
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under
Game 915-916: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.294; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.384
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Over
Game 917-918: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.310; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.702
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+140); Under
Game 919-920: Toronto at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rzepznski) 15.276; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.905
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Over
Game 921-922: Detroit at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 14.976; NY Yankees (Moseley) 15.608
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Under
Game 923-924: Seattle at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Pauley) 15.429; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.729
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Under
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.308; Boston (Lackey) 15.056
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+155); Under
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.591; Minnesota (Liriano) 17.136
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 929-930: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.343; Kansas City (Chen) 14.212
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over
Marc Lawrence
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Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
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Baseball's best kept secret this season has been Baltimore right-hander Jeremy Guthrie. He enters tonight's contest 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three team starts and 5-1 with a 1.75 ERA in his last six team starts during the month of August. Not bad for a pitcher hurling on the worst team in the majors. With Seattle David Pauley just 4-7 in his career team starts in the big leagues, look for the Birds to come up big at Camden Yards here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baltimore.
Matt Fargo
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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We won with the Reds in this spot last night and we will come back with Cincinnati again on Wednesday. The Reds remain in control in the National League Central as they have a two-game lead over St. Louis. Cincinnati has surprised many this season with the way it has been playing as it has not fallen back like many thought would happen. Prior to last night’s victory over Arizona, the Reds came off a home sweep against Florida which was impressive as that could have been the spot for the fold after they were swept at home against the Cardinals right before that. The Reds have won eight of their last nine road games to move to 32-25 on the road for the season. While Cincinnati has surprised in a positive way, Arizona has been a huge disappointment this season. The Diamondbacks are 26 games under .500 as both the pitching and the hitting has led to a very underachieving season. Arizona has definitely been better at home than on the road however it is five games under .500 at Chase Field which shows there really is not a home edge at all. Edinson Volquez will be making just his seventh start of the season since coming off the disabled list for Tommy John surgery and after a rehab assignment in Louisville and he has gotten progressively better. Over his last three starts, totaling 17.2 innings, Volquez is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA while allowing just one run in each of those three starts. He now faces the worst hitting team since his comeback so the success should carry forward. The Diamondbacks go with Rodrigo Lopez and he has been as inconsistent as they come. He has given up 26 earned runs in 35 innings since the All Star break, a 6.69 ERA, while allowing nine home runs. The nine homers have added to his 28 total home runs allowed which is the most in baseball and the Reds have hit the third most dingers in the National League. That is not a good combination for Lopez. The Reds are 13-3 in Volquez’ last 16 starts on the road when the line is between +125 and -125 while also going 8-0 in their last eight road games against right-handed starters. Arizona has lost 14 of the last 17 meetings including six straight at home against Cincinnati. 3* Cincinnati Reds
Steve Merril
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Angels vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 10
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The Angels offense has disappeared at a bad time as they continue their series with the Red Sox in Boston on Wednesday night. Los Angeles has scored just 23 runs in their last eight games including being shutout twice. They'll see an old friend in John Lackey tonight. Lackey is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two starts against the Angels already this season. In those two games, he gave up just three runs and nine hits in 14.3 innings of work. Torii Hunter (9-40), Hideki Matsui (8-34), Bobby Abreu (7-31), Maicer Izturis (0-6), Howard Kendrick (1-6), Mike Napoli (0-4), and Erick Aybar (0-3) all struggle with the Red Sox starter. The Angels are hitting right around .255 as a team on the road this season. Boston's bullpen is 9-4 with an ERA close to 3.65 at home this season. Scott Kazmir's first two starts off the DL have been better than his earlier season results. He has given up just three runs and seven hits in 11 innings pitched against the Blue Jays and Tigers. Kazmir is familiar with the Red Sox with 27 career starts against them. Earlier this season, he was touched up by the Red Sox, but the lefty has improved since then. David Ortiz (9-44), Mike Lowell (10-43), Adrian Beltre (3-20), JD Drew (2-9), and Bill Hall (2-8) all have poor numbers against the lefty. Boston has gone Under the total in two of their last three games after scoring just 12 runs in those games. With Lackey’s success against his former team, and Kazmir’s improved form, we’ll recommend a play on the Under in this game between the Angels and Red Sox tonight.
BIG AL
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Tigers @ Yankees
PICK: Over 9.5
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It's been another lost season for Detroit righthander Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman, who's never had an ERA under four runs for a season, is in the midst of another losing campaign (6-8) as despite making adjustments to his delivery and adding new pitches, the 27-year-old is only 6-8 with an ugly 5.16 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through his first 24 starts of the season. The good news for Bonderman is that even though his career record against the Yanks is - not surprisingly - abysmal at 3-8 with a 5.29 ERA, he has a realistic chance of picking up a win tonight because he will be going up against the bottom of the Yankee rotation which right now means 28 year-old righthander and spot starter Dustin Moseley. Moseley has done just enough to keep himself in the rotation until veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte comes back. That means that Moseley has been barely serviceable at 2-2 with a 4.41 ERA in four starts so far. He may be 1-0 against the Tigers in his career, but he also has a 4.85 ERA against them in 13 innings. Six of the eight games that Moseley has appeared in for the Yanks this season have gone a total of 10 or more runs. Take the 'over.'
Kyle Hunter
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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -1½
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The Atlanta Braves are playing great baseball at home, and Tim Hudson is pitching as well as anyone in baseball of late. Hudson has given up 2 earned runs in his last 37 innings pitched. That is absolutely dominating on the mound! Livan Hernandez has pitched well this year, but the Nationals are just 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. The Nationals are also only 5-11 in his 16 starts against Atlanta. On the other hand, the Braves are 9-3 in Hudson's last 12 against Washington. The clear pitching edge goes to the Braves, and the Braves have the better lineup and defense as well. Take the Braves -1.5 in this one!
Jim Feist
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Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Take: Seattle Mariners
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David Pauley picked up his first win this month and the kid has been very good overall, with a 3.31 ERA in 35 innings. He doesn't walk anyone and faces a terrible Baltimore offense, one that is second to last in the AL in runs. Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles is 2-3 against Seattle with a 4.50 ERA. The Mariners have better pitching, especially in the pen, as the Orioles are last in the AL in team ERA. Play the Mariners.
Bryan Leonard
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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It's been a long season for the Angel's Scott Kazmir. He comes into this matchup with a 6.25 ERA on the road for the season. In his last three starts against the Red Sox he's allowed 15 earned runs in just 15.1 innings of work. He's lost his ability to strikeout the opposition and he's been wild all season. The Angels have dropped 5 of his last 6 starts.
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Boston received a bit of good new yesterday as Dustin Pedroia returned to the lineup. He's a spark plug of a player and a big key in their success. Former Angel John Lackey takes the mound tonight and he has been at his best against his former team. In two starts he's permitted just 3 earned runs in 14.1 innings of work. He allowed just 12 baserunners in those games as Boston came out on top in each time. Boston has won all eight meetings between these two this season and their dominance continues on Wednesday.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Cincinnati over Arizona
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The Reds own this series of late winning 13 of 16, while showing perfect in the desert at 5-0. With Cincinnati 7-0 versus right-handers and Arizona hurler Lopez slumping, the play is the talented visitor.
EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -235
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The price is very high, but I have to back Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals here against a Milwaukee team that Wainwright has owned. Nobody is pitching better then Wainwright right now and he appears to have taken the inside track to the National League Cy Young award. Wainwright is 17-6 this season with an ERA of 1.99 and over his last three starts Wainwright is 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.39! Wainwright has dominated the Brewers twice this season posting a 2-0 record with an ERA of only 0.50 in eighteen innings pitched. Randy Wolf has decent numbers against St. Louis this season posting a 1-1 record with an ERA of 3.66 in three starts against the Red Birds, but he will have very little margin for error in this game. The Cardinals are 5-1 in Wainwright's last six starts against the Brewers and I expect that success to continue in this game. Play on St. Louis.
Dan Bebe
CIN (-122) vs ARI
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Public play? Perhaps. But I'm a man who learns from watching, and watching last night's game between these two teams, it was pretty clear that the D'backs are pretty set on swinging for the fences and trying to pad their individual stats.
The Reds, meanwhile, are playing like a well-oiled machine, a team bent on grabbing that Central Division that started to slip away last week during the brawls with St. Louis.
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Watching that game, you just saw the determination in the Reds; the execution, the situational hitting. They did it all, and on the first game of a tough road trip, that's a big sign. The D'backs continued to bumble about, getting a 2-run shot before an out was recorded, and then not scoring another run the rest of the night despite putting a runner on 2nd base with nobody out twice in the late innings. That is a team that's not playing smart, fundamental baseball, and even Kirk Gibson can't get this ship righted.
To the D'backs' credit, prior to last night's implosion, the bullpen had been better, but the Reds aren't going to let them get off so easy, and that's why I like this game even more.
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Volquez has been rolling his last few starts, and as strength continues to return to his arm, he'll go deeper in games. His command is improving, and we all know he has a nasty breaking ball that should sit a few of the D'backs down on strikes.
Lopez, meanwhile, is a friend to all gophers. The Reds, who hit a ton of homers, are going to be looking to do some launching, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a few leave the yard. Jonny Gomes has been especially successful against Lopez in the past, and he's not coming off a strong start, either. If Cincinnati gets into the D'backs middle relief, game over.
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If not, I still think we see Cincy with a lead late, and the superior pen and superior offense, not to mention the team with the desire to win, will prevail.
So indeed, a public play is being made, but in this one, the squares are going to take home some bacon.
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Play on the Big Red Machine.
Gill Alexander
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OAK (-125) vs TOR
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Rzepczynski is coming off 7.2IP of scoreless 2-hit ball v LAA. However, righties hit .315 against him, and in the Athletics, he has stumbled on a heavily-laden right-handed hitting lineup. Crisp (switch), Jackson, Suzuki, Kouzmanoff, Ellis, Davis, Tolleson, Pennington (switch), and Powell (switch) all hit from the right side of the plate. Gonzalez has a 2.57ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 1 run or fewer in 6 of his last 10 starts w a 2.54ERA over that span. He is that rare Brian Bannister-like starter that performs very well during day games, posting a 2.10ERA in the sunlight. The A's are a daytime juggernaut, as well, winning 11 of their last 13 day games, w a 28-12 day game mark for the season. Key sabermetric?Gonzalez has a very solid 0.61 HR/9IP rate. That is vital for any pitcher facing the Jays, the #1 HR-hitting club in baseball. That puts this one over the top for the Athletics.
Rocketman
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Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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White Sox come in with a 65-54 overall record this year while Minnesota is now 69-50 on the season. Minnesota is 50-20 the past 3 years and 19-3 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 121-74 the past 3 years and 32-17 this year against division opponents. White Sox have lost 7 of their last 9 games overall. Minnesota has won 8 of their last 9 games overall. Minnesota bullpen has a 3.15 ERA overall this year and a 3.22 ERA at home this season. Gavin Floyd is 3-6 on the road this season. Francisco Liriano is 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA overall this year, 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA at home and 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA his last 3 starts. Minnesota is 20-5 at home vs Chicago White Sox the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -120
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The Reds have won 14 of their last 17 games against the Diamondbacks, including 6 straight in Arizona. They enter tonight's contest having also won 5 straight on the road and 8 straight road games against right-handed starters. The Reds are in good hands with Volquez on the hill when you consider they have won each of his last 4 starts and 18 of his last 22 road starts. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are just 1-5 in Lopez's last 6 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. the National League Central. I'll take the Reds tonight.
Tom Freese
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Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
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Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has allowed has allowed 3 runs or less in his last 6 starts. The Orioles are 7-2 their last 9 home games and they are 4-1 in Guthries last 5 home starts. The Birds are 8-1 their last 9 games vs. AL West teams. Baltimore is 5-1 their last 6 home games vs. righty starters. Seattle starter Davids Pauley is 2-4 in 6 starts this year. The Mariners are 14-29 their last 43 games overall and they are 8-20 their last 28 road games vs. righty starters. Seattle is 18-44 their last 62 road games.