Lenny Del Genio
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Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The A's beat the Jays last night 6-2 and look to win the series this afternoon. Oakland loves playing day games as they are 28-12 this season in the afternoon. They throw Gonzalez this afternoon, another lefty. Toronto is awful against southpaws this season with a 10-16 record while hitting a miserable .211. The last time Gonzalez pitched here in Oakland he three seven innings of shutout baseball against the hard hitting Rangers. He should have no trouble pitching Oakland to another afternoon win. Play on Oakland.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Seattle +1.38 over BALTIMORE
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The Orioles a 7½-5 favorite or close to it is ludicrous. Here’s a team that has had one good run all year and it’s over. They’re 42-78 and 31½ games out of first. This team was out of it in April and they’re back to its losing ways after that 9-2 run when Showalter took over. Jeremy Guthrie is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts and that definitely has influence on this line. However, Guthrie's recent second-half turnaround is not supported by his skills, indicating this apparent "roll" is in fact a fluke. The second-half skills actually show decline from first half levels. Guthrie's yawning ERA/xERA gap (3.88/4.85) is likely to eventually narrow, which could result in an unwelcome ERA spike. While he is pitching somewhat better than last season, Guthrie's skills have not returned to 2007-2008 levels. Declining numbers continues a four-year trend, and second-half numbers are even lower. Incidentally, current Mariner batters are 33-97 against Guthrie for a BA of .340. David Pauley has shown some remarkable consistency for two straight years. He’s consistently average and he’s a risk to get smoked every time he takes the hill. However, he’s also very capable of keeping the M’s in the game and he’s not the one laying –1.48. The Mariners are actually playing some decent ball right now with six wins in its last nine games and all the value in this one is on them. Play: Seattle +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 9
Texas belts in the runs at home, but on the road, they average just 4.4 per game, leading to a 31-23 UNDER mark away from home. In 31 day games this season, they have managed to score only 3.8 runs per game. Tampa Bay averaged 5.5 per game on the road, but only 4.5 per game at home, leading to a 34-26 UNDER mark at home. Tampa Bay pitching has led the charge allowing a total of 22 runs in their last nine games, or less than 2.5 per contest. Texas is 50-24-3 to the UNDER in game three of a series with Tampa Bay right with them at 39-18-3, for a combined game three UNDER mark of 89-42-6. When facing a winning team, the Rangers are 78-55 UNDER the past two seasons. And, after a game in which they allowed 8+ runs, they are 29-13 UNDER dating back to last season. At home, the Rays are 14-4 UNDER this season to a total of 9 to 9.5. I like the UNDER here.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -104
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The Giants have the edge with Cain on the hill tonight. I like the looks of his 3.11 ERA a lot more than I like the looks of Blanton's 5.69 ERA. The Giants are 5-1 in Cain's last 6 starts and 17-4 in his last 21 starts vs. the National League East. The Phillies won the first game of this series, but the Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series and 11-3 in their last 14 games following a loss. Lastly, Blanton is carrying a high 1.475 WHIP, and the Giants are 18-6 in their last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Giants.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Braves -223
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Reasons the Braves win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (WASHINGTON) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 70-7 ML System hitting 90.9% over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Tim Hudson. The righty is 10-1 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in 16 lifetime starts vs. Washington. Hudson is 14-5 with a 2.13 ERA this season, 9-3 with a 1.81 ERA at home and 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bet the Braves at home.
Doug Upstone
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay jumped on Texas starter Tommy Hunter, scoring four times in first three innings and piled on six more runs against Rangers pen for 10-1 thumping. The Rays go for the sweep this afternoon and a normally reliable baseball system (76%) has been in high gear this season and active today.
Play Against road teams after the bullpen was rocked in previous contest for six or more earned runs, against opponent with a smoldering bullpen who’s WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games. In 2010 this sharp system is 9-1!
Frank Jordan
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LA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: LA Angels
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Scott Kazmir is 8-10 with a bloated era of 6.36 this year including a 14 era against the Red Sox due to a poor start earlier in the season. He has had his success with a 7-6 career record heading into this mainly with a bad Rays team. John Lackey came over to the Red Sox from the Angels in free agency and thus far hasn't lived up to the contract he does have 10 wins but 7 losses and an ear over 4.50. The one thing he has done is beat up on his old team in two starts Lackey is 2-0 with an era of 1.88 and a batting average against of .180. In this one look for it to be the third times the charm for the Angels as they finally get to Lackey and get a gem out of Kazmir. Play LA Angels
Tony Stoffo
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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: San Diego Padres
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With Casey Coleman getting the start here today against the Padres means the Chicago bullpen with be in this game early with their 5.00 ERA and 1.558 Whip. Look for the Padres who have been red hot as of late winning 8 of their last 9 games to score early and often here today against this sub par group of pitchers that the Cubbies will be running out to the mound in this spot. San Diego at this low price is my Value play of the day release. Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 home games. Cubs are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Nelly
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Texas + over Tampa Bay
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The Rays are back in a tie for first place in the AL East but James Shields has had little to do with the recent resurgence. Tampa Bay is just 4-6 in his last ten starts and he allowed four or more runs in seven of those games. Shields is just 3-6 in his home starts this season while featuring a 4.90 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. The numbers are much worse in day games and the Rangers already have a win against Shields this season. Each of the last three series between these teams has played out in similar fashion with the home team winning the first two games but the road team has won the game 3 match-up each time. Derek Holland starts for the Rangers and while he has made just four starts this season his numbers are strong. In AAA Holland posted a 1.91 ERA in ten starts and he mainly pitched well for the Rangers as a starter last season before running out of gas with a few poor late season starts. The Rangers are the far better hitting team in this match-up, hitting .275 for the season compared with a .252 for the Rays. Even at home Tampa Bay is batting just .249 for the season. Texas also owns a lower bullpen ERA on the road than the Rays have at home. Texas has not lost three consecutive games since before the All Star break and this appears to be a good opportunity for the Rangers to get back on track and avoid the sweep.
Jorge Gonzalez
Padres at Cubs
Pick: Padres
The San Diego Padres (70-47) just continue to win and are a season best 24 games over .500. That might get better when they face the hapless Chicago Cubs (50-70) in today’s action. San Diego has won eight of the last nine meetings. The Padres will send Clayton Richard to the mound to face the Cub’s Casey Coleman (0-0, 8.64). Coleman replaced Thomas Diamond in the rotation after pitching two solid innings in his last appearance against the Cardinals. This will be Coleman’s first major league start. The Cubs may soon throw in the towel if they haven’t already. The Cubs have lost five straight home games and eight of their last 10 games. The Padres have won eight of their last nine games and are a solid 9-2 on the road when playing a team with a losing record. Conversely, the Cubs are 3-14 at home against teams with a losing record. Take the Padres.
Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
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Jeremy Guthrie is one of the hottest starters in the American League, and so are the Baltimore Orioles. Guthrie is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA since the All-Star Break. In his last start, he yielded just two hits in six innings at Tampa Bay in a 5-0 victory. Baltimore is 10-5 in their last 15 games overall, beating a lot of solid teams along the way.
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For the season, Guthrie has posted a 3.68 ERA at home through 12 starts. David Pauley owns a 6.23 ERA on the road for Seattle. The Mariners are 14-29 in their last 43 games overall. Seattle is 18-44 in their last 62 road games. Baltimore is 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. AL West foes, and 7-2 in their last 9 home games overall. Look for another dominant outing out of Guthrie tonight against the worst offense in baseball. Roll with the Orioles Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -104
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The Giants have the edge with Cain on the hill tonight. I like the looks of his 3.11 ERA a lot more than I like the looks of Blanton's 5.69 ERA. The Giants are 5-1 in Cain's last 6 starts and 17-4 in his last 21 starts vs. the National League East. The Phillies won the first game of this series, but the Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series and 11-3 in their last 14 games following a loss. Lastly, Blanton is carrying a high 1.475 WHIP, and the Giants are 18-6 in their last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Giants.
Tony George
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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UNREAL NUMBER for the obvious pick. Trap Line?? Doubt it. The D Backs have no hitting strategy in my book on offense, they just all line up and try to knock it out of the park, which is insane. The Reds are an ATM machine against the D Backs winning 14 out of the last 17, and they face a pitcher tonight with an ERA of 6.88 his last 3. Volquez for the Reds has an ERA under 2 in his last 3 starts and has been fantastic as of late, and Cincy on a nice 7-3 run here their last 10 games, and have the far better team, even on the road. I thought this number would be -150 or higher, a lean to the road team here with some serious line value.
John Ryan
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Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -1½
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5* graded play on Atlanta using the Run Line as they take on Washington set to start at 7:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Braves will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 51-21 for 68.4% winners since 2004. Play against all dogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. Braves are in first place in the NL East and for very good reasons. One of them is that they have taken care of winning games against inferior opponents like the Nationals. Braves are a solid 12-2 against the run line (+12.9 Units) in home games versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less run per game during this season. Braves starter Hudson sports a 14-5 record with a 2.13 ERA and a 1.075 WHIP in 24 starts this season. In 12 home starts he has posted a 9-3 record with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Take the Braves.
Black Widow
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1* on Cleveland Indians +102
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We'll take the Indians Wednesday behind Fausto Carmona. The righty is having a very solid season despite pitching for a losing team. He has managed an 11-10 record and 3.87 ERA this year, including a 6-3 mark with a 3.30 ERA on the road. Bruce Chen is 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA as a starter this season for Kansas City, including 3-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in 7 home starts. There's no question we are backing the better starter tonight at a great price. Carmona is 5-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 10 career starts against Kansas City. Chen is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland. The Royals are 0-12 (-12.8 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Indians on the Money Line.