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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August 19

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Sleepyj

NY Yankees -160

Ervin Santana gets the nod here tonight for the Twins..His ERA has taken a turn for the worse and his game has fallen apart in his last 4 games..i won;t speculate his problems right now though...He has allowed a total of 22 runs in just 19 innings in his last 4 games..That's over 1 run per inning..Not very good..He has also allowed a total of 32 hits in his last 4 games and 11 walks..% HR's to go with it as well his last 4..In short, he is falling apart right now...I like Santana and always have..Can he bounce back here today?..Sure he can, i just don't believe against the Yankees he can..This one may get ugly as the Yanks look to keep the hammer down right now at home..Bombers will send Eovaldi to the mound today...He is 12-2 on the year and his ERA is around a 4.25...I put some stock into his record now that it's late August..He is pitching well and at times he can be very good..I expect himt o be very good here today..He is coming off a sluggish outing and at home in a day game..I really like this one today..Bronx bombers are looking to sweep this series and the next Vs. the Indians..Yanks roll the Twinkies today.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 11:54 am
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Red Dog Sports

Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians -135

Boston won easily on Tuesday night. I expect the visitors to win Wednesday as Kluber won the Cy Young last year and is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.66 in his last three and allowed just one run in his last two starts. Kellly for Boston is 3-0 in recent starts but his ERA is 5.69 this season.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 11:55 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay vs. Houston
Play: Under 7½

This game fits a solid totals system that pertains to teams that are off low scoring games with top tier pitchers tonight. Houston has gone under in 5 of the last 7 and are hitting .210 this past week. They have a solid 2.24 bullpen era at home and have Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Keuchel has been solid all year and has a 1.26 home era and has pitched under in 9 of 13 home starts. Tampa counters with N. Karns who has been exceptional on the road with a 2.95 era and has pitched under in 7 of 11 road starts. In the series these two have stayed under in 5 of the last 8 here. Look for this one to go under the total.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 11:56 am
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Jim Feist

Nationals vs. Rockies
Play: Under 10

Colorado comes off a strong defensive effort earlier in the week, shutting out San Diego here on Sunday, 5-0. The under is 21-7 in the Rockies last 28 vs. the National League East. Into town comes Washington, a squad that is 7-3 under the total on the road against a left-handed starter. Washington has Stephen Strasburg going, allowing 2, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0 and 1 run his last seven starts. Strasburg gave up two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out eight in six innings against the Giants on Thursday. The under is 5-1 in Strasburg's last 6 starts overall. Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa is also throwing well, allowing 2, 3 and 2 runs his last three starts. The Under is 8-0 when De La Rosa starts with 6 days of rest, plus the under is 21-7 when the Rockies face the National League East. And when these teams clash the Under is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 11:57 am
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Art Aronson

White Sox vs. Angels
Play: Over 7½

Oh how the mighty have fallen, three years ago these two guys were considered the cream of the crop. These once dominant starters are now a shell of their former selves and in our opinion, all signs point to the offenses teeing off on these beleaguered veterans. The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (8-8, 4.78 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off nine hits over six innings in another poor performance on Friday, this time vs. the Cubs. Samardzija has now yielded 26 runs over his last 23 1/3's innings and has been downright awful on the road all year, he enters this game having posted a bloated 5.28 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Jered Weaver (4-9, 4.60 ERA) who is coming off his fifth straight loss on Friday, he'd give up three runs over six innings to the Royals in the setback. Note that Weaver has posted a deplorable 5.59 ERA during his losing streak. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and with these two hurlers each struggling with consistency, there's no question that the OVER does indeed become a very legitimate investment opportunity in this matchup.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 11:58 am
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Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

Edges - Cardinals: Jaime Garcia 5-2 with 0.95 ERA last seven team starts, and 1.69 career home ERA in this series. Giants: Matt Cain 1-10 team starts versus N.L. Central foes last three years. With Cain’s 6.84 away ERA more than two runs per game higher than his home ERA this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 11:59 am
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Jesse Schule

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Detroit Tigers +185

The Cubs are heavy home favorites in this series versus the Tigers, but they came up short in a 10-8 slugfest at Wrigley last night. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF here in Game 2. Jon Lester will toe the slab for the Cubs, and he's coming off a string of impressive starts. Lester (8-8, 3.21 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits, striking out 10 in six innings in a home win over the Brewers his last time out. He struck out 14 in a home win over Colorado two weeks earlier, but tonight's opponent may well prove to be more troublesome for the southpaw. Lester has really struggled against Detroit, going 2-5 with a 5.25 ERA in 10 career starts. The Tigers hand the ball to rookie left-hander Daniel Norris, who has been quite impressive since joining the team. Norris (2-2, 4.24 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a win at Kansas City his last time out. He's 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five starts on the road this season. Miguel Cabrera is back for the Tigers, and he's owned Lester in his career. Miggy is 14-for-25 (.560) with a home run and four RBIs lifetime versus the left-hander. The entire Detroit lineup has had their way with him, hitting a combined .350 in 157 at bats over 10 games.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 12:00 pm
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Bruce Marshall

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

The slumping Nats erupted for 15 runs on Tuesday night to temporarily halt their skid, but not sure we want to count upon Stephen Strasburg, who has struggled all year on the road with a 6.00 ERA in 39 IP, tonight in Denver. Colorado isn't much, but the Rockies usually have a chance when Jorge De La Rosa, who pitched effectively on August 7 in D.C., is on the mound.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 12:01 pm
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Mr Vegas

Miami vs Milwaukee
Play: Miami

Wily Peralta is a home favorite but has had a poor season at 3-7 with an ERA over 4. The team is 1-2 his last three starts and for the season he is 2-4 at home. Miami is in town playing well, on a 5-2 run and 4-1 against a righty starter. Tom Koehler (3.68 ERA) goes for the Marlins with good stuff, with opponents hitting .238 off him. Koehler (8-10) pitched admirably Friday, allowing just two runs on five hits and a walk over seven innings in a 3-1 loss to the Cardinals. If you take out a two-start stretch from July 29 to August 3, Koehler has been great since June 15. In fact, he has eight quality starts and has not allowed more then seven hits in any game since June 10.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 12:15 pm
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Jeff Saad

Miami vs Milwaukee
Play: Miami

Wily Peralta is a home favorite but has had a poor season at 3-7 with an ERA over 4. The team is 1-2 his last three starts and for the season he is 2-4 at home. Miami is in town playing well, on a 5-2 run and 4-1 against a righty starter. Tom Koehler (3.68 ERA) goes for the Marlins with good stuff, with opponents hitting .238 off him. Koehler (8-10) pitched admirably Friday, allowing just two runs on five hits and a walk over seven innings in a 3-1 loss to the Cardinals. If you take out a two-start stretch from July 29 to August 3, Koehler has been great since June 15. In fact, he has eight quality starts and has not allowed more then seven hits in any game since June 10.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 12:16 pm
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Larry Ness

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Boston beat Cleveland 9-1 last night and is now averaging MLB-highs of 7.0 RPG and a .315 team BA over its last 21 games. However, the Red Sox are a sub-.500 team (10-11) in that span, somewhat summing up the team’s 2015 season. Boston won its THIRD World Series crown since 2004 back in 2013 but then fell off the map in 2014, going 71-91, 25 games out in the AL East (minus-$2,647 moneyline mark ranked 27th of 30 teams). Boston has NOT been able to get off the mat again here in 2015, as the Red Sox are again in the AL ‘basement’ with a 53-66 record (minus-$1,978 ranks 28th), 13 1/2 games out of first-place and ‘buried’ as well in the wild card race (nine games out with EIGHT team between them and the final wild card spot).

The 55-63 Indians haven’t done much better, sitting one spot ahead of the Red Sox in the wild card standings (6 1/2 games back), as well as being a WHOPPING 17 games back of the Royals in the AL Central. Boston’s Joe Kelly (5-6, 5.69 ERA) takes the mound for the Red Sox in the rubber match of this three-game series and Boston’s recent offensive surge has helped him win his last three starts, despite a 4.41 ERA (he’s gotten 27 runs of support his last three outings!). However, the team is just 8-11 in his 19 starts this season, with Kelly posting a 5.69 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He hasn't gone beyond six innings in 11 consecutive starts, nor has he found Fenway much to his liking. He owns a 5.68 ERA in 14 career starts in Boston, compared to a 3.62 mark in his other 53 starts!

Now one could look at Corey Kluber’s 2015 season as a HUGE letdown, after he won the AL Cy Young award in 2014. He’s just 8-12 and even more damning, the Indians are 9-16 in his 25 starts, giving him the worst moneyline mark (minus-$1,281) of ANY starter here in 2015. However, while his ERA has jumped from 2.44 last season to 3.34 in 2015, in many other categories, Kluber is having a better year. His WHIP (1.04), opponent batting average (.231), OPS (.616) and walks per nine innings (1.69) are all career lows. The strongest likely explanation for his record is his run-support average dipping from 4.39 last year to 3.59.

The Indians are definitely NOT in contention but Kluber is clearly intent on ‘righting HIS ship’ before the year is out. He’s evolved into one of the AL's most reliable arms with four complete games over his last 14 starts, after notching just THREE in his first 81. The Indians have won SIX of his nine starts since July 1 with Kluber not only winning three of his last four starts but pitching complete games in each victory. He's 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA in that span, and he's given up just TWO runs on four hits in 18 innings over his last two starts, both against Minnesota.

No Cy Young (obviously) for Kluber here in 2015 but I believe he’ll finish the season strong. That’s the bet here!

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 3:18 pm
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Will Rogers

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies +134

The Colorado Rockies were thumped by the visiting Nationals, losing by a score of 15-6 in the series opener at Coors Field last night. They might expect a better result with their ace on the mound here in Game 2 tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rockies hand the ball to Jorge De La Rosa, who beat the Nats in Washington just a few weeks ago. After going 20-3 over 30 starts at Coors Field over the last three seasons, he's just 2-2 at home this year. He has owned the Nats though, going 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA in eight starts versus Washington. The Nats counter with Stephen Strasburg, who is 0-2 with a 5.56 ERA in his last two trips to Coors Field.

2. Home Cookin' - The Rockies are batting a major league best .303 at Coors field, and only the Blue Jays have scored more runs in their home park. Strasburg has been roughed up on the road, with an ERA of 6.00 in eight starts.

3. X-Factor - The Nats are just 2-9 in their last 11 road games.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 3:19 pm
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Jimmy Boyd

Texas Rangers -130

While Texas dropped yesterday's game 2-3 to Seattle, the Rangers are still a red-hot 5-1 in their last 6 games and are 8-1 in their last 9 at home. I look for Texas to bounce back in a big way and this is a great price to back them at home.

The Rangers will be sending out veteran Derek Holland, who will be making his first start since leaving the home opener back in April with shoulder problems. While there is some concern with Holland being a bit rusty given the long layoff, keep in mind he posted a 1.46 ERA in 6 starts last September after missing the first 5 months following knee surgery. Helping Holland here is the fact that the Mariners are scoring just 3.6 runs and hitting .252 as a team against left-handed starters this season.

Even if Holland struggles to some degree, I still like the Rangers offense to provide enough run support to secure the win. Seattle will be sending out the slumping Mike Montgomery, who has a 9.49 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 5.02 ERA and 1.566 WHIP over 7 road starts. Montgomery faced Texas once earlier this season in Seattle and gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in just 4 innings of a 3-11 defeat.

Seattle is 0-8 in Montgomery's 8 starts this season following a win, 8-22 in their last 30 after allowing 2 runs or less and 8-17 in their last 25 during game 3 of a series. Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter, 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.

 
Posted : August 19, 2015 3:20 pm
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Alex Smart

San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -160

Cain the Giants starter tonight has been near horrific in road starts this season, as is evident by a 6.84 ERA. He has been pulled in his L/3 starts, while allowing 14 runs in 13 2/3 innings of nasty work and has recorded a 8.24 ERA in his L/4 turns. He is 2-5 with a 6.63 ERA lifetime against St. Louis, and he gave up seven runs on nine hits over six innings during his last start against the Cardinals on June 1, 2013.Giants are also 0-5 in Cains last 5 road starts vs. Cardinals.Meanwhile, his Cardinals pitching opponent Jamie Garcia owns a very stingy 1.57 ERA and has allowed only 1 ER in his L3 magnificent trips to the hill.Garcia hasn’t faced the Giants since May 2014, but he has a 1.78 ERA in five starts against them. I know Garcia has really had problems getting run support from his teams offense this season, *2.22 RPG, but that should not be a problem in this spot. This is obviously a matchup of two hurlers who are currently at the opposite end of the performance spectrum. I know the Giants are trying to get themselves in position for a play off spot, but tonight, against a Cards team that has suffocated opposing teams on their own turf (45-19) Im betting baseballs Gmen go down in flames.

Cardinals are 40-12 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 48-14 in their last 62 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Giants are 1-10 in Cains last 11 starts vs. National League Central.Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

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Posted : August 19, 2015 3:20 pm
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