Big Al
Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Over
Texas veteran LHP Derek Holland is coming off the disabled list to make his first start since the home opener back on April 10. Holland made four rehab starts in the minors -- one at AA and three at AAA -- and the numbers were not good. In 12 innings, he allowed nine runs (eight earned) on 16 hits and 6 walks. As a result, he may need a few more starts to shake off the rust before he gets back to the form which made him one of the better pitchers the past few years. Seattle will hand the ball to fellow lefty Mike Montgomery for his 15th start of the season. After opening his career by going 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA in seven starts and throwing back-to-back shutouts, the rookie southpaw went 0-3 with an 8.01 ERA over his next seven. Montgomery was the starter in the 15-1 beat-down last Friday at the hands of the Boston Red Sox and in that one he gave up a whopping nine runs on 10 hits in just 2 1/3 innings. Heading into today, the over is 6-2 in the Mariners last eight road games.
Power Sports
New York vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The Mets came into yday w/ an inherent advantage, that being they were off Monday while the Orioles were wrapping up a four-game sweep of the A's. So I wasn't surprised at all to see the visitors win Tuesday (I gave them out on Steamwire!), but this evening's game should go to the O's for a variety of reasons.
New York remains shaky on the road. Even with the victory yday, they are still only 22-34 away from Citi Field this season, which includes a 4-11 mark as a dog in the +100 to +125 range. While a number of playoff contenders have less than ideal road records, the Mets' is definitely the worst. Furthermore, starter Noah Syndergaard has yet to pick up a road win, all season, going 0-5 in eight starts thanks to a 5.44 ERA and 1.473 WHIP. He gave up five runs in just four innings his last time starting away from home.
Even after losing Tuesday, Baltimore is still 38-22 at Camden Yards, outscoring teams by 1.2 rpg. Starter Ubaldo Jimenez has an 8-2 team start record here, even though he was less than stellar his last time out. But that followed a dominant performance on the road against the Angels (eight shutout innings of two-hit ball). This will be the Orioles' final chance to beat the Mets this year (0-3 head to head) and don't think that won't be on the player's minds. The O's are also now one-half game back of the Angels for the second Wild Card.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ New York
Pick: Minnesota +175
There are not many, if any that have a misleading record to the extent of today's Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has a very impressive 12-2 record on the season, but has pitched to a less than average 4.26 ERA. He has allowed 154 hits in 129 innings of work on the season, and has a high WHIP of 1.49, unbecoming of a starter with a 12-2 record. The one thing the Twins have done is come back from the dead, as they are 6-2 in their last eight, after dropping the first two games of a series. It is just a matter of time until the numbers catch up to Eovaldi, and right now the surface has a greater reflection on the line than what is real. Take advantage and play on Minnesota.
Rocketman
Seattle vs. Texas
Play: Texas -137
The Seattle Mariners travel to Texas to take on the Rangers on Wednesday afternoon. Mike Montgomery gets the start for Seattle where he is 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA his last 3 starts. Montgomery has a 6.75 ERA in his one start vs Texas in his career. Derek Holland will be making his 2nd start of the season. Holland is 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA in all his starts vs Seattle in his career. Seattle is allowing 8 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Seattle is 18-37 this year after a win. We'll recommend a small play on Texas today!
Joe Gavazzi
Baltimore -120
We trust the hunter vs. the hunted with a home/road dichotomy in both a team and pitching matchup. Mets have a comfortable 4 ½ game lead over the Nationals, while Baltimore trails LA Angels by ½ game in the Wild Card race. At home, Baltimore is 36-21 compared to the Mets' 22-34 road record. The same is true among tonight's starters, as the Mets are 1-7 in 8 Syndergaard road starts, in which he has a 5.44 ERA and 1.57 PLAY AGAINST road WHIP. Contrast that to Jimenez, behind whom Baltimore has won 8 of 10 home starts, in which Jimenez has a 3.20 home ERA and a 1.07 PLAY ON home WHIP.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the NY Yankees in a day game against the Minnesota Twins on the run line. Both Nathan Eovaldi and Ervin Santana must start or this play is null and void.
Liking my chances in this one with a pitcher who gets more run support than just about any pitcher in baseball. But the ironic thing about Eovaldi is that he's actually starting to pitch better recently... and if you combine that with the run support he receives... it's a dangerous combination for the opponent.
And it also appears New York's fortunes have turned again, as they were trailing in both of the first two games of this series, and late heroics turned potential losses into wins. I'm not sure where the bats were for a while, but apparently they're back.
And that's not good for Santana who has struggled mightily over the past month or so, recording three losses and one no-decision in his last five outings. He's 2-3 with a 5.66 ERA on the year and has allowed five or more runs in four of his eight starts since returning from his 80-game suspension.
Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
1* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Chris Jordan
This one is solely based on the hurlers, as I think they'll be done by the fifth inning, and this total will be in the bank by then as well.
Montgomery looked good after he opened his career by going 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA in seven starts. He even threw back-to-back shutouts and looked like a bright spot for the rotation. But, as it goes with most young hurlers during a grueling MLB campaign, the rookie southpaw plummeted. He went 0-3 with an 8.01 over his next seven outings, including his last start, in which he gave up 10 hits and nine runs over 2-1/3 innings to a weak Boston team.
Now you send him into Arlington to face the raucous Rangers, who are looking to emerge in the postseason, and who can hit the ball well.
The Mariners just might hang tough, though, as Texas hands the ball to Holland, who is coming off the disabled list to make his first start since the home opener on April 10. He made four starts on a rehab assignment, and was able to get to five innings and 89 pitches in his last start for Triple-A Round Rock. I don't know how long he'll be in, and not sure if his velocity is right.
Play this one high, as it'll touch double digits.
2* Mariners/Rangers Over
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Over in the Indians-Red Sox series finale.
It took a while last night for these teams to hurdle the total, as Cleveland scored only one time, but that one run was huge, as Boston is now on a 21-6-1 Over run their last 28 games, including 9 in a row!
I know Corey Kluber has been on a roll, but the way the ball has been jumping around Fenway Park, if Boston can contribute a few runs to the cause then Cleveland can do the rest off of Boston starter Joe Kelly.
Kelly has been getting better of late, but he still owns a 5.69 season ERA, and he has not gone past the 6th inning in an of his last 11 starts.
Finally consider that the Over between the teams at Fenway now stands at 10-4-1 the past 15 series meetings, and I think the choice becomes clear.
Indians-Red Sox play Over one more time.
2* CLEVELAND-BOSTON OVER
Brad Wilton
Tonight's comp play is the same as last night's, and that is the Tigers and Cubs to play Over the total.
The weather aided in the fireworks last night, as the baseball was flying out of Wrigley Field in Detroit's 10-8 victory.
Even if the wind is calm, the percentages say to play any game the Tigers play this summer Over the total, as Detroit now stands at 35-15 -3 Over the posted price their last 53 games played.
Jon Lester has been on top of his game lately for the home team, but remember this, Lester did lose to Detroit earlier this year at Comerica Park, working under 5 innings, while allowing 5 runs to cross home plate.
Lester is now 2-5 with an over 5 ERA in his 10 career starts against Detroit.
Daniel Norris goes for the visitors, and he is off a 6-plus innings stint against Kansas City in which he allowed 3 earned runs to score.
The Cubs did play 2 of their 3 games the series prior against the White Sox Over the total, and while their Over numbers aren't as impressive as Detroit's, Chicago does have a little Over run brewing of late.
Don't rock the boat, stick with the Tigers to play another Over!
3* DETROIT-CUBS OVER
Jason Sharpe
Arizona at Pittsburgh
Play: Arizona
Lots of teams out of the MLB playoff picture seem to pack it in down the stretch but that's not the case at all with these Arizona Diamondbacks. The young D-backs are a fun team to watch as they do a lot of the little things needed to win ball games. They play well in bigger ball parks also like the one there in here tonight in Pittsburgh as they're built more for speed and defense. They go with one of the best young lefties in baseball, a guy who is way under the public radar right now in Robbie Ray. The 23 year old southpaw throws very hard and is a much better pitcher outside of Chase Field as he sports a solid 2.54 ERA in his road games this season. In fact Ray is the exact type of pitcher who excels in PNC Park as left-handers have a big edge here. Solid team and starter at a very nice price. .
Vegas Butcher
Cincinnati Reds -112 (1st 5 innings Only)
After a number of terrible starts Guthrie put together a ‘decent’ outing in his last one as he allowed 2 hits and 1 run in 6 innings to the Angels. Of course he only had 2 K’s and issued 3 BB’s in that game so it’s not like it was a dominant start. His 6.7 SIERA indicates that it was just as mediocre. It’s important to remember that in 29 innings of the 2nd half Guthrie has a 6.2 FIP and 6.5 ERA and has been one of the worst (if not the worst) pitchers in the league. I’ll back a young Cincy starter who has the ‘unfamiliarity factor’ in his favor once again today and hopefully the Reds’ offense could hit a HR or two off Guthrie in the first 5 innings.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -140
It’s not that Toronto’s offense ranks #1 against lefties, or that old-man Buehrle somehow continues to hold opponents to 2/3 runs per start, or even that the Blue Jays are the best team in the AL. This play has to do with Toronto facing Adam Morgan for the 2nd time in the last month. He pitched against them on 07/28 and was lucky to only allow 2 runs in that one (6 innings; 5 hits (1 HR); 2 runs; 2 K’s and 2 BB’s). Morgan has a 7.2 SIERA, a 35% Hard-hit rate, and a ridiculous 70% FB-rate in that one. Remember, he only has 2 K’s in 6 innings, so most of the other at-bats resulted in fly-balls. Toronto hit 1 HR in that outing but I think in the rematch they could hit even more. Morgan is a pitcher that doesn’t even average 89 MPH on his fastball and I really see him struggling in his 2nd start against the Blue Jays. Phillies’ last 6 losses have all come by an average of more than 5 runs per game, and I expect them to lose tonight also. Chances are it will be by 2+.
Dave Essler
Detroit +190
This is absolutely worth playing, and I thought about the RL when it comes out. However, the wind is blowing out hard (hence, over perhaps) so the one run may mean far less than if it were a low scoring game. Lets not forget the Tigers saw tons of Lester with the Red Sox and actually hammered him. Throw out BOTH bullpens after last night, IMO. The upside to Norris (especially since the Cubs haven't seen him so probably F5 bet too) is just too much to pass up, especially with Cabrerra back. I'd love the Tigers to find a home at first base for V-Mart - but if that were the case I'd unload on this. Clearly the Cubs and Lester aren't worth -220 or whatever tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Angels -131
The Angels are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the White Sox. Los Angeles has rebounded from a 1-6 stretch with back-to-back wins, both coming in the first two games of this series against Chicago. I look for the Angels to have no problem extending their win streak to 3 in a row, as they have a clear advantage on the mound in this one. The White Sox will send out Jeff Samardzija, who clearly is not in prime form. Samardzija has allowed 22 runs on 23 hits in his last 3 starts, adding up to an awful 12.91 ERA and 1.890 WHIP. During this stretch opponents are hitting .354 against him. I'll gladly take my chances with the Angels here, who will counter with veteran Jered Weaver, who has been effective in each of his first 2 starts back from injury. Weaver has allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits with 10 strikeouts in 11 innings. He will definitely be confident when he takes the mound tonight, as he's 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in 12 career starts against the White Sox. Chicago is 15-37 in their last 52 road games against a team with a winning record and 1-5 in Samardzija's last 6 road starts against a team with a winning record. Angels are 54-21 in their last 75 home games against a team with a losing road record, 41-19 in their last 60 as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 starts following a quality start last time out.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City/CINCINNATI over 8 -105
We’re usually not in favor of playing totals but this is one we can’t refuse. For one, Great American Ballpark is a HR ally to both RHB (+33%) and LHB (+52%). Secondly, these two went 13 innings yesterday so the pens won’t be as fresh. Thirdly, these are two pitchers that could both be rocked and we’ll start with Kansas City’s Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie is pitching on borrowed time. If this was a game against an AL rival or the Royals didn’t have a comfortable lead in the AL Central, Guthrie likely would have been skipped. Guthrie’s 35%/28%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile isn’t likely to hold up well at this venue. Guthrie has a mere 62 K’s in 125 innings. Over his last five starts he has struck out 9 batters in 24 innings while walking 7. He also brings an overall 1.55 WHIP (1.67 WHIP over his last five) to this start and we can’t overstate enough how troubling that is. It’s almost like Guthrie is in a jam every inning. He’s been able to wiggle out of a bunch of them but that’s at his pitcher-friendly home park. On the road, Guthrie’s ERA is 7.66. Come playoff time, Guthrie won’t be anywhere near the mound.
Keyvius Sampson has decent stuff but one thing he doesn’t have is command of it. Sampson’s first-pitch strike rate of 45% is a major problem that is very likely going to bite him against this very patient lineup. The Royals offensive philosophy is to “keep the line moving”. Sampson has only allowed six runs in 17 innings thus far but he’s walked six batters in just 11 innings over his past two starts. Sampson is almost always behind in the count. He’ll walk some guys and inevitably put speed on the base paths. Sampson also has a 35%/44% groundball/fly-ball split, which is another problem at this park. This is a beatable number for one team to go over on its own but when you combine the two, we like our chances.
Arizona +145 over PITTSBURGH
Ever since his arrival in the desert, Arizona left-hander Robbie Ray has morphed into a flamethrower, with a propensity to pepper the outer edges of the strike zone virtually overnight. The staggering increase in Ray’s fastball velocity has propelled him from a fringe prospect into one of the more intriguing young southpaws in the game today. While the sample size is small (14 starts), the results we have seen so far aren’t insignificant and they speak to just how well he has pitched since arriving in Arizona.
Given a new lease on life in Arizona, the transformation for Ray began at Triple-A Reno this spring, where he posted an eye-popping strikeout rate (12.3 K's/9) over nine starts. While those gaudy strikeout numbers haven’t carried over into the majors (7.8 K's/9) he is finally looking like he belongs in a big-league rotation. What immediately stands out as a catalyst in Ray’s metamorphosis, is a significant increase in his average fastball velocity. He’s averaging over 93 mph on his heater this season and has been clocked as high as 97 mph at times. He also hasn’t had any trouble maintaining his increased velocity the deeper he’s gone into his starts, which suggests that there is nothing inherently fluky about his cranked-up heater.By gaining over two miles per hour in average velocity from a year ago, he’s gone from a fringe major league arm, to one of the hardest-throwing left-handed starters in the game, right up there with stalwarts like David Price, Clayton Kershaw, and Chris Sale in terms of pure heat. We’re not comparing Ray to that trio. Ray still has work to do, mainly working on his secondary pitches because he’s relying on his fastball too often and getting hitters to chase it out of the zone. Hitters will adjust and lay off, which will inevitably lead to trouble.
There is a lot to digest when it comes to understanding the change that Ray has undergone and what it means long-term, but we now have a more complete picture of who exactly he is going forward. He's hardly a finished product. However it’s clear that he’s making the necessary adjustments to become a quality major league starter. He still needs to improve both his changeup and slider, but at just 23 years old, and with his raw stuff trending in the right direction, Ray has plenty of value in certain situations and this is one of them against J.A. Happ, a pitcher that is hardly worthy of this price. Furthermore, Ray has a 2.54 ERA on the road after allowing just 39 hits and 14 earned runs in 49.2 road innings. He’ll now face a Pirates offense that is hitting just .256 against southpaws and that has just two hits in 10 combined AB’s against Ray.
J.A. Happ is a southpaw and Arizona’s .267 BA against southpaws ranks sixth in MLB. The good news for Happ in 2014 was that his ERA improved for the third straight season. The bad news? That was after pitching half his games at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field and his ERA was still over 4.00. That’s a mark he hasn't been able to beat since 2010 and there is more mediocrity on the way. Happ's groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 42%/25%/33% is a weak one. His line-drive rate over his last five starts is 29% and one could attribute that troubling number to his 118 innings pitched already this year when he hasn’t passed 160 innings since 2009. Happ’s league-average swing and miss rate puts a damper on just about everything else he does too. Happ brings his 4.69 ERA to this start. In his two starts since the Pirates acquired him, he’s been tagged for 16 hits over 9.2 innings. He brings an xERA over his last five starts of 6.75 into this one and therefore we wsnt no part of this guy when he's favored in this range. Play the value.
N.Y. Mets +107 (5 innings)
We're playing this one in the first five innings only as the Mets bullpen is laboring while the O’s pen is excelling.
Put Ubaldo Jimenez high on our fade list coming down the stretch. Here’s a guy that has seen his average fastball velocity drop to a career low 89.7 mph over his last five starts, down a tick from the 90.5 that he was throwing up to that point. Jimenez’s first pitch strike rate (59%) line-drive rate (24%), and WHIP of 1.31 are all below league average. His 9% swing and miss rate does not support the 122 K’s in 131 innings. Everything Jimenez is doing right now is trending the wrong way and it’s getting worse. Over his last five starts covering 27 frames, Jimenez has a BB/K split of 10/19, a WHIP of 1.44, a first-pitch strike rat of 54% and an ERA of 6.33. This guy appears to be running on fumes and he’s not that good to begin with.
Noah Syndergaard already owns some of the best skills of any young starter in the game. Against RH bats, only Max Scherzer is more skilled than Stndergaard. Check out Syndergaard's skills against righties: 11.4 K’s/9 1.5 BB’s/9, 46% groundballs and an xERA of 2.26. He's respectable against lefties but not nearly as effective but that will improve with time. The best news here is that he’ll face a heavy right-handed lineup. Chris Davis is the only real threat batting left but Syndergaard is too smart to give him anything good to hit and Davis is really good at striking out. Syndergaard is a cornerstone young arm that offers up nothing but value when he’s offered a price of any kind, especially against a struggling mound opponent.
Brian Hay
Royals vs. Reds
Play: Over 8
Kansas City Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie has had a terrible season. Guthrie shouldn't even be in the Royals' starting rotation. His 7.66 ERA in 10 road starts is the second-worst among pitchers with at least 50 innings away from home. Before his last start, Guthrie had given up 17 earned runs, including six homers, in three previous starts spanning 18 innings. Guthrie held the Angels to one run in six innings during his last outing, which came at home. You have to go back to late June/early July to find the last time Guthrie pitched well in back-to-back games. The over is 15-5-1 in Guthrie's last 21 starts after he allowed two runs or less in his previous game. The Reds rookie Keyvius Sampson has pitched surprisingly well during his first three big league starts. However , this is the first time he's facing an American League team. The Royals rank fourth in batting average and ninth in runs scored.