Doug Upstone
Pittsburgh Pirates -152
Play On home favorites with a money line of -150 or more like PITTSBURGH, having won four of their last five games with a 54% to 62% win percentage, playing a marginal losing team (46% to 49%). Since 2011, clubs like the Pirates can handle the extra juice and are 59-13.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -120
The Toronto Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball as they have gone 16-3 in their last 19 games overall. Not only have they been winning, they've been dominating as 14 of their 16 wins during this stretch have come by 2 runs or more. They cannot afford to slow down now as they have pulled within one game of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East. They'll win by 2 runs or more over the Phillies, who are 1-6 in their last 7 games with all six losses coming by 2 runs or more. Mark Buehrle continues to get it done, going 13-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 23 starts this season. He'll be opposed by Adam Morgan, who is 3-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.291 WHIP in 9 starts, and 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in 4 home starts. Buehrle is 12-1 (+11.3 Units) against the money line against NL East opponents lifetime, and his teams are winning by 5.0 runs per game against them.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -127
While the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox have little to play for at this point, both have shown that they have not quit. I have no problem backing the Indians at this price tonight considering they have a massive edge on the mound in this one.
2014 AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber is having another fine season with a 3.34 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 25 starts. Kluber has been dominant in his last two starts, pitching two complete games while allowing only two earned runs in 18 innings of work.
The Joe Kelly experiment in Boston has not panned out his season. Kelly is 5-6 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in 19 starts this year, and 3-3 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 10 home starts. I expect the Indians to jump on him early and often.
Kluber is 28-9 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Indians are 46-22 in their last 68 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Red Sox are 19-40 in their last 59 games as a home underdog.
Brandon Lee
Los Angeles Angels -131
Chicago has dropped 4 of 5 and their struggles figure to continue on Wednesday with Jeff Samardzija on the mound. Samardzija is enduring the worst stretch of his career, as he's got a 12.91 ERA and 1.890 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Considering he has a 5.28 ERA over 13 road starts, it's highly unlikely he bounces back with a strong outing against the Angels. LA on the other hand will give the ball to Jered Weaver, who has looked sharp in his first 2 starts back from injury. Weaver also has a strong history against the White Sox, going 9-2 with a 2.15 ERA over 12 starts. Los Angeles is a dominant 40-18 in their last 58 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and are 29-12 in their last 41 games as a favorite of -125 to -175.