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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August 19,2009

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Sports Gambling Hotline

St. Louis at LOS ANGELES

Comp play winner last night on the Marlins. Now 19-8-1 the last 28 days with our comp plays.
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We can hear Vin Sculley now, talking about how the "Chavez Ravine scoreboard is all lit up with goose eggs", as we fully expect Adam Wainwright, and Clayton Kershaw to mow the batters down this evening at Dodger Stadium.

Wainwright sports a season ERA of 2.62, while Kershaw's season ERA is 2.91.
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Season series numbers show 4 of the last 5 meetings in LA having stayed UNDER the posted total, and also show 4 of the 6 showdowns this year having played LOW.

Wainwright's last 24 innings of work against the Dodgers show just 3 earned runs allowed, while Kershaw's last 21 innings of work against the Redbirds show just 3 runs allowed.

Yes indeed, this game has the makings of a 3-2 final.
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Play on the UNDER at Dodger Stadium tonight.

4♦ UNDER

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 7:56 am
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Karl Garrett

San Francisco at CINCINNATI -110
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G-Man stands at 23-17 the last 40 days with my comp plays.

For Wednesday, I will ride the Reds and Bronson Arroyo over the Giants and Barry Zito.

The Giants did win in extra-innings last night, but that win was just their 2nd in their last 9 meetings against the Reds.
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Bronson Arroyo is coming off a complete game shutout of the Nationals, and he has only allowed 6 earned runs over his last 23 innings of work.

No doubt the Reds are struggling down the stretch, but remember, the Giants are just 26-34 on the road this season, and starter Barry Zito is 4-7 on the road this year with an ERA near 5.
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I like Cincy to end their 4-game losing streak, as they knock Zito out of the box early in this game, and Arroyo does the rest.

G-Man riding the Reds!

1♦ CINCINNATI

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 8:04 am
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Tom Freese
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Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Under
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San Diego starter Matt Latos has allowed 2 or less runs in 5 of his 6 starts this year. San Diego is 8-2 UNDER their last 10 Wednesday games. The Padres are 11-5 UNDER their last 16 home games and they are 5-1 UNDER in the 6 starts made by Latos this year. Chicago is 6-0 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Rich Harden and they are 25-10-1 vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 10-3 UNDER on Wednesday and they 20-9-1 UNDER their last 30 games at San Diego. PLAY ON 'UNDER'

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 8:08 am
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Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -162
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Haren is known to struggle late in the season and that's exactly what we are starting to see. Although, he was strong at home against the Dodgers his last time out, he really struggled against the lowly Nationals and the injury-plagued Mets his two prior starts, allowing 5 earned runs in each. Plus, Haren is 0-3 against the money line lifetime against Philly with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.235. The Phillies send Cliff Lee to the hill and he has been brilliant. He has won each of his last 6 starts and is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.12 and a WHIP of 0.917 since coming to Philly. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 road games, 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet the Phillies.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 8:08 am
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Michael Alexander
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Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros
Play on Florida w/ West
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FLORIDA is 10-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game this season. FLORIDA is 28-15 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. FLORIDA is 11-5 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 8:26 am
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The Spread

San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds

San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

Pick: Cincinnati

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

St. Louis is 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home

Pick: LA Dodgers

Florida Marlins at Houston Astros

Florida is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Florida
Houston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Florida

Pick: Florida

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:19 am
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Tom Stryker
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LAA Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: OVER 10

After soaring over the total in the first three meetings of the season, the Halos and Tribe stayed under the number yesterday thanks to the combined pitching efforts of Fausto Carmona and Trevor Bell. Things will be a little different here and runs should be plentiful.
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On the hill for the Halos will be Long Beach State product Jered Weaver. In his last three starts against the Orioles, Rangers and Twins, Weaver was whacked for 14 earned runs and 18 hits in 17.0 innings of work. That adds up to a lofty 7.41 ERA. Foreign soil hasn't been kind to Jered either. As a guest, No. 36 has been blasted for 42 earned runs and 69 hits in 61.2 frames. That's bad enough for an elevated 6.13 ERA.
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Cleveland pitcher Jeremy Sowers hasn't done much better. At home this season, Sowers has been smoked for 24 earned runs and 53 hits in 48.1 frames. That adds up to a miserable 2-4 mark and an elevated 4.47 ERA. Overall, No. 45 has allowed 45 earned runs and 87 hits in 83.0 innings for a lofty 4.88 ERA!
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If you need a little technical support to make this investment, consider the following: The Halos have soared over the number in 15 of their last 18 against teams from the AL Central (1 tie), 29 of their last 41 as chalk (3 ties) and 37 of their last 53 overall (2 ties). Look for the scoreboard operator to put in a few extra hours here. Take the over.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:41 am
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Craig Trapp
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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Today PHI rolls out ace Cliff Lee as he tries to stay perfect with the new team. He will face ARI ace Harren who has not quite been as good lately. Lee is 3-0 since coming to Philly giving up only three runs and 16 hits over 24 innings with his new club and striking out 23. Not sure you can get any better than this. On the other hand Harren has gone 2-2 since the all star break giving up a 5.10 ERA. Not helping Harren today is also the fact that ARI just can't get hits lately. Yesterday they were held to only 3 hits and 1 run. On the other hand PHI is tearing it up scoring over 5 runs per game in last 7 games going 6-1 in that stretch. EASY winner today M/L and a small play on the R/L!!! SCORE PHI 5 - ARI 1

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:42 am
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LT Profits

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
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Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers has developed into one of the best young pitchers in all baseball, and he had dominated the St. Louis Cardinals in his brief career. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright is also in raging form, so look for both offenses to struggle tonight.

Kershaw may be just 8-7, but that is through no fault of his own, as he owns an excellent 2.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 136 innings. Furthermore, has he has allowed two runs or less in all three of his starts vs. the Cardinals since being recalled last year, including one masterpiece this year where he tossed eight scoreless innings while allowing just four hits. He is facing a St. Louis lineup that us batting just .233 vs. southpaws on the road this year.
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Not to be outdone, Wainwright has now remarkably allowed two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts. He is an amazing 9-1 on the road with a 3.41 road ERA for the entire season, and like Kershaw, he too has had success vs. his opponent tonight. Wainwright has posted three straight Quality Starts vs. the Dodgers, including one start this year where he threw eight scoreless innings in a 10-0 St. Louis blowout win.
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When you throw in the fact that LA is averaging a modest .253 vs. right-handers over the last 10 games, this one has Under written all over it.

Pick: Cardinals/Dodgers Under 7.5

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:55 am
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Freddy Wills
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Take Yankees -120
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Yankees face the lefty Anderson for the third time this season and they send newly acquired Chad Gaudin to the mound for a start against the Athletics on Wednesday night. I'm liking the Yankees to hit Anderson hard as they have a .353 average in his two starts against them. Anderson's line is 12IP 18H 3BB 9 ER and 3HR. As I mentioned the Yankees always hit LHP as they have a stunning .299 average and are scoring 6.69 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP on the road this year. They are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a LH starter and are 10-2 in their last 12 meetings. I think we are getting great value here with the Yankees at -120 despite Gaudin going if you remember he did throw an 8 inning 1 hitter at Texas when he was with the Padres earlier this year.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:56 am
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Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on LAA Angels -124
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The Angels are rolling, having won 7 of 8. More impressively, they are 21-6 in their last 27 road games. I'll take the Halos on the road tonight against the Tribe and Jeremy Sowers. The Tribe is just 4-10 in Sowers' starts this season, 4-18 in his last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 0-6 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels counter with Weaver and are 13-3 in his last 16 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League Central. Weaver was rocked last time out and that bodes well for the Halos also, as they are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. Gotta go with the Angels at a nice price tonight.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:56 am
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Jeff Saad
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Red Sox at Blue Jays
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This is a low total for an American League game, especially one in this park, on artificial turf and a good homer park. Ace Roy Halladay is going, and he has an ERA over 4 lifetime against Boston. The Red Sox bats woke up yesterday scoring 10 runs. David Ortiz has actually been hitting well the last week. Starter Clay Buchholz is erratic, still learning how to pitch, with a 1-3 record and a 4.45 ERA. Look for more runs than oddsmakers think.
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Play the Red Sox/Yankees Over the total.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 9:59 am
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Yankee Capper

Kansas City/Chicago Under 8.5
LA Angels/Cleveland Over 10
Toronto Blue Jays -145
Florida/Houston Over 9.5

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 11:03 am
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DAVE PRICE
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -129
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I like the Rangers to bounce back from last night's defeat behind Kevin Millwood tonight. Millwood has never earned a decision against the Twins, going 0-6 in his career, and he is very mindful of that. I expect this streak to come to an end here. Millwood has been brilliant at home all season, going 7-1 with an ERA of 2.46. Baker has been good for Minnesota of late, but has an ERA of 4.39 on the road this season. Plus, the Twins are 0-9 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win and 0-5 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Take Texas .

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 11:03 am
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John Ryan
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Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Chicago Cubs
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as they face the Padres set to start at 10:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 119-76 making 56.2 units since 1997. Play against any NL team with a bad offensive team scoring <=4.1 runs/game facing an average starting pitcher posting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. SD is just 12-27 (-17.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons; 19-40 (-18.7 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. Cubs starter Harden has been solid to say the least posting a 3.00 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP over his last 3 starts. In 9 road starts he has posted a 2.28 ERA and 1.175 WHIP. Take the Cubs.

 
Posted : August 19, 2009 11:05 am
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