Scott Rickenbach
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Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 9
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As a result of last night’s high-scoring game and the fact that Kevin Millwood struggled in his last start, we are getting some solid line value here. Keep in mind, the Rangers Millwood was making just his second start since July 26th when he struggled with is command against the Red Sox in his last start. Note that the veteran right-hander still allowed just one earned run on three hits in 5.2 innings of work. Overall, Millwood has allowed just five earned runs in his last 19.2 innings of work. Also, he’s 7-1 with an amazing 2.46 ERA in his home starts this season. The Rangers Cruz and Saltalamacchia are on the disabled list while the Twins Morneau and Kubel are both questionable. Also, before going over in the first two games of this series the Rangers had stayed under the total in seven of their last eight games and the Twins are 23-13 to the under this season as a road dog of up to +150.
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Minnesota sends Scott Baker to the mound tonight and he’s allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. Those five solid starts have spanned 35 innings – an average of seven innings per start. We expect another fine effort from him here! Also, Baker has struck out 40 batters in his last 48.2 innings of work. The Rangers lineup is known for it’s free swingers. Even though Baker has a 5.32 ERA in his career against Texas that is certainly a bit deceiving! He’s held the Rangers to a .245 batting average and he’s averaged a strikeout per inning in his 23.2 career innings versus Texas. Baker is 21-11 the last two seasons and we look for another fine effort from him here. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Texas on Wednesday night.
Lenny Del Genio
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Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians Aug 19 2009 7:05PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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We cashed the Angels as an Oddsmaker Mismatch last night and are still wondering what the linesmakers are thinking installing the Halos as such a small favorite once again. The visitors are the clearly superior team and the Indians are a horrific 34-53 vs. righties this season. Jeremy Sowers is the worst of a bad Cleveland rotation, posting a 5.19 ERA in 14 starts. Incredibly, the Angels are averaging nearly six runs per game both on the road and vs. lefties. LA is 26-11 vs. lefties this year. Total mismatch. Take LA Angels.
Mike Rose
Toronto Blue Jays -150
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The BoSox moved into a tie with the Texas Rangers for the AL Wild Card last night, and will use their 25-year old right-hander to guarantee the team of a series win on Wednesday night. Buchholz will be making his seventh start of the season for the boys from Beantown. He is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA. In spite of the fact that Buchholz has only allowed three earned runs in his L/2 starts, he was the tough luck loser in both games. The Sox havent scored a run for the righty since plating a whopping 18 runs for him against Baltimore three starts ago. Buchholzs first start of the season was against these Jays in Toronto. He only gave up one run in 5.2 innings to notch the lone win of his 09 campaign.
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Halladay probably thought that he'd be pitching for a contending team like the Sox right now, but instead, he'll be taking the hill for the 24th time this year for manager Cito Gaston and the Blue Jays. The righty is 13-5 on the season with a 2.65 ERA. He has thrown at least seven frames in seven straight starts, but the Jays are just 3-4 in those outings thanks to a lack of offensive support. Even though hes coming off of back-to-back victories, his teammates scored more than five runs only once in his L/11 starts. Hes issued one free pass in his L/4 starts, and has thrown an MLB-best ten games without issuing a walk.
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The Red Sox are on an awful stretch away from Fenway Park, as theyve lost eight of their L/10 as a visitor. Theyve also failed their MLB betting backers by losing each of the L/9 times they were installed a road underdog. Torontos earned a victory just once in its L/6 games played, but its a $$$-making 32-7 in Halladays L/39 home starts as a home favorite in the -151 to -200 range. Theyre also 7-2 in Halladays L/9 Rogers Centre starts against the division rival Red Sox. Boston leads the season series between these two teams six games to four, and the under has cashed in seven of the 10 overall meetings.
ATS Consultants
Arizona Diamondbacks/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5
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An absolutely brilliant pitching matchup tonight at Citizens Bank Park between Danny Haren and Cliff Lee. Two of the elite pitchers in all of Baseball should provide a very low scoring affair tonight in Philadelphia.
Haren (12-7, 2.50) has been a very bright light in a dark season in the desert. If not for him, Arizona might be the worst team in Baseball, as the pitching staff behind him has been awful. Haren was his usual brilliant self last time out as he pitched 8 innings, allwoing 1 run on 6 hits in a win over the first place Dodgers.
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Lee (3-0, 1.13) has been nearly unhittable since being traded to Philadelphia from Cleveland. Nothing like going from last place to first place on one plane ride! He’s only allowed 3 earned runs since the trade, and has not only won, but dominated all three of his National League starts. Overall, he’s 5-0 in his last 5 starts, with a 1.35 ERA. Those numbers combine his last 2 American League efforts as well.
LT Profits
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers has developed into one of the best young pitchers in all baseball, and he had dominated the St. Louis Cardinals in his brief career. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright is also in raging form, so look for both offenses to struggle tonight.
Kershaw may be just 8-7, but that is through no fault of his own, as he owns an excellent 2.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 136 innings. Furthermore, has he has allowed two runs or less in all three of his starts vs. the Cardinals since being recalled last year, including one masterpiece this year where he tossed eight scoreless innings while allowing just four hits. He is facing a St. Louis lineup that us batting just .233 vs. southpaws on the road this year.
Not to be outdone, Wainwright has now remarkably allowed two earned runs or less in 10 consecutive starts. He is an amazing 9-1 on the road with a 3.41 road ERA for the entire season, and like Kershaw, he too has had success vs. his opponent tonight. Wainwright has posted three straight Quality Starts vs. the Dodgers, including one start this year where he threw eight scoreless innings in a 10-0 St. Louis blowout win.
When you throw in the fact that LA is averaging a modest .253 vs. right-handers over the last 10 games, this one has Under written all over it.
Pick: Cardinals/Dodgers Under 7.5
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
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We played the Under in the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres matchup last night, and lost on an inside-the-park home run in the bottom of the eighth inning. We are coming right back with the Under again tonight, hopefully without such bad luck.
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Rich Harden of the Cubbies has some of the best stuff in the National League when he is healthy, and he certainly looks healthy now. Harden has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last six starts, and those outings came against stronger offenses than this weak San Diego unit. The Padres are hitting an ugly .219 as a team at home this year, and not surprisingly, Harden held them to two runs and four hits the only other time he faced them in 2009.
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Now the Pads are high on rookie Matt Latos, and he has managed a winning 4-2 record while pitching for a bad team. Latos has appreciated the dimensions of this ballpark, as he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHP in his three home starts. He is facing a Cubs offense that is averaging just 3.92 runs per game on the road, and that figures to struggle again facing Latos for the first time ever.
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Finally, Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, with games here averaging a combined 7.76 runs, and you can probably shave a couple of runs off of that given this pitching matchup.
Pick: Cubs/Padres Under 7
Jeff Benton
San Francisco +105 at CINCINNATI
An all-around piss-poor performance by yours truly last night, including my free-play selection on the Cardinals. I’ll get back on track Wednesday, though, and take the Giants as a slight road underdog at the Reds.
How bad is life in Cincinnati right now? Coming off three straight embarrassing home losses to the Nationals, the Reds last night jumped out to a 5-1 lead against reigning Cy Young winner (and frontrunner for the award this year) Tim Lincecum, knocking the Giants’ stud out of the game after six innings … and STILL lost 8-5 in 10 innings!
The Reds have now lost 36 of their last 52 games overall, they’re 2-12 in their alst 10 home games, they’re 1-7 in their last eight as a favorite and they’ve lost seven in a row to left-handed starters. The lefty they face tonight is San Francisco’s Barry Zito. Zito owns one of those seven southpaw wins in a row over Cincinnati, a 4-2 victory in Frisco 10 days ago. (You may recall I gave out the Giants on the run line in that contest.)
Zito has now given up three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, allowing two earned or less in five straight before Friday’s 3-0 loss at the Mets. And tonight, he’s facing an offense that’s hitting lefties to the tune of a .184 average of the past 11 games. As for Reds starter Bronson Arroyo, he was on the losing end of that 4-2 game that Zito pitched back on Aug. 8, and the Reds are just 1-4 in Arroyo’s last five trips to the mound, 0-6 in his last six against the N.L. West and 1-8 in his last nine against teams with a winning record.
Throw in the fact that the Giants have won two in a row and three of four – including a pair of 10-inning road wins – and this is a no-brainer. Look for Zito and San Francisco to hand the slumping Reds loss #5 in a row.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Drew Gordon
San Francisco at CINCINNATI -110
Now on a 42-32 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Pirates over the Brewers 5-2 Tuesday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the San Francisco/Cincinnati match up...
Much like last night, when I told you its always tough to back a slumping team (the Pirates came through with a 5-2 win over the Brewers), there are certain spots where tremendous value can be had. Tonight is precisely one of those spots, as a solid pitching edge, coupled with a desperate need to snap their slide, has me siding with the Reds Wednesday.
It all starts with Bronson Arroyo, who is not only coming off one of his best starts of the season, throwing a 2-hitter in a complete game winner over the Nationals Thursday, but also comes into this contest with excellent numbers against the Giants in Cincy. Arroyo is an perfect 3-0 with 1.99 ERA in his L3 home starts versus San Fran, and I look for that to continue tonight!
On the flip side, I know a lot of bettors are liking the resurgent southpaw Barry Zito in this contest, but let's not get carried away. Two things bother me about the soft-throwing lefty in this contest: A. He's 4-7 with a 4.92 ERA on the road this season, and having just seen the Reds (August 8th) there's no doubt they'll be ready for him. And B. His career numbers against Cincinnati are hard to stomach, going 3-2 with a ridiculous 8.59 ERA in 6 starts against them!
Finally, I'll agree that last night's defeat was demoralizing, but with Arroyo on the hill, at home against the Giants, Zito is going to have to be next-to-perfect to get the win here, and I just don't see that happening. Look for the Reds to come out sharp tonight, as they're clearly desperate to stop the bleeding from their 4-game slide. No better pitcher, or situation (Arroyo at home vs Giants, Zito on the road), than this one... Reds get it done Wednesday night at home!
Take Cincinnati behind Arroyo over San Francisco and Zito in this MLB match up.
2♦ CINCINNATI
Chris Jordan
Seattle at DETROIT
Rare complimentary total tonight, as I like the over between Seattle and Detroit.
One thing that always stands out for me is the numbers with totals. And tonight there are so many in favor of the over, it was easy to side with the high, rather than playing a three-dollar favorite on the run line. Do I think the Tigers are going to win? Absolutely. Would I lay this price, or even the run-line price? Absolutely not.
Let’s start with Ian Snell, who has a ridiculously high ERA of 8.78 since joining the M’s, who are 0-3 in his three starts with the team. Now he has to face a team that has won four of five and is clinging to its division lead. The Tigers are poised for a breakout game at the plate, and this is the perfect opportunity.
Flipside, two of Justin Verlander’s last three starts have gone over, while six of his last eight starts against the Mariners have topped the total. I know he’s arguably the team’s most dominating starter, but he’s good to get tapped for about three or four runs. With the total sitting around 8-1/2 at 99 percent of the books, that means we just need a handful from the Tigers … they may get that in one inning!
Inside the numbers, with the M’s, the over is on winning runs of 10-1 when they’re an underdog of $2 or more, 7-1 when they’re taking on a right-handed starter, 5-1 on the road, 7-2 versus the American League Central and 10-4 overall.
With Detroit, the over is on a bevy streaks, including 7-0 at home against a winning team, 8-2 off a win, 6-2 at home, 4-1 when Verlander is installed as the home chalk, 14-6 when he starts at home and the total is installed between 7-8-1/2 and 12-4 overall.
Play this one high.
2♦ Seattle at Detroit OVER