Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August, 21

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Tribe sends All-Star Justin Masterson to the mound against journeyman Jerome Williams and the Angels in finale of this three-game set in Anaheim, Cleveland will do so knowing Masterson is 6-2 in his career team starts against the Halos, including 3-1 in this park. On the flip side, Williams is 0-7 with a 6.69 ERA in his last seven overall team starts, and just 2-11 in his last thirteen home team starts. With that, look for the Indians to improve to 5-1 in games against the AL West behind Masterson this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Diamondbacks +165

This line is giving far too much credit to Cincinnati's Mike Leake. While his overall numbers on the season have been solid, Leake has a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts with a 1.765 WHIP. He has not performed well at home this year posting a 3-4 record in 11 starts. Brandon McCarthy's ERA for his last three starts is 4.24, a number that tells me he is pitching better with each start. He is coming off losing efforts against the Pirates and Mets, but he pitched well in those games and did not receive any run support.

I don't think run support will be an issue for McCarthy today. In their past seven games, the Diamondbacks have averaged 5.7 runs per game with a .272 batting average. Cincinnati on the other hand is trending in the wrong direction, posting a .238 batting average over their past seven games. With Leake pitching so poorly right now and Arizona coming into this game as hot as they are offensively, I expect to see the Diamondbacks secure and early lead and win this game.

Jeffrey Brandes

Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9

Jake Westbrook has a 10.13 ERA and .333 opponents' batting average over his last four outings. Gorzelanny is coming off his poorest start since joining the Brewers' rotation, a 4 2/3-inning, six-hit, three-walk dud against the Reds. He needed 37 pitches for the first inning alone. He gave up 5 runs in those 4 2/3 innings.

Art Aronson

Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8½

Jeremy Hellickson (10-6, 4.91 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Hellickson gave up three runs off nine hits and one walk while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Friday. Hellickson has given up a whopping 16 runs over his last 18 innings of work. While he's 2-0 vs. the Orioles over three starts this year, note that he sports a poor 5.85 ERA in that span, the obvious beneficiary of a ton of run support. Hellickson brings his 5-4, 5.40 ERA road record into Baltimore to throw opposite Wei-Yin Chen (6-6, 3.23 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven over 6 1/3's innings in his team's 6-3 setback to the Rockies on Friday. Chen continues his slide into mediocrity, having allowed three earned runs or more in each of his last five starts. "Recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and there's no question that each of these hurlers comes into this contest with more questions than answers. I won't go so far as to call Chen a "gas can", but I do feel that Hellickson's performances of late definitely put the Rays' starter under this dubious category. Expect these beleaguered pitchers to get chased early and consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are on a tremendous stretch and bounced back last night en route to a 6-4 win over Miami. Tonight they fit a league wide system that play on certain road favorites, like the Dodgers, that are off a road favored win by 2 or more runs and had 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent like Miami that lost by 2+ runs as a home dog and scored 4 or less runs, but still had 10+ hits. These road teams have won 12 of 15 times long term. LA had won 16 of 19 this month. Miami has lost 13 of 18 on Wednesday. N. Eovaldi goes for Miami and he has a pedestrian like 4.52 home era. He will be opposed by Z. Greinke who has 7 of 10 on the road and has a 0.90 era over his last 3 starts. Look for the Dodgers to hook the fish once again here tonight.

Justin Bay

Philadelphia Phillies -163

Juan Nicasio
- Last game vs. PHI: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1.59 WHIP, .292 OBA
- Away: 5.76 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, .294 OBA
- Phillies hitters vs. Nicasio in his career: .278 BA

Cliff Lee
- Career vs. COL: 2.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .280 OBA
- Home: 4.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .264 OBA
- Rockies hitters vs. Lee in his career: .333 BA

Cincinnati Reds -163

Brandon McCarthy
- Away: 5.21 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .312 OBA
- Coming off rough start @ PIT

Mike Leake
- Last game vs. ARI: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0.63 WHIP, .143 OBA
- Career vs. ARI: 6.12 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .277 OBA
- Home: 3.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .260 OBA
- Arizona hitters vs. Leake in his career: .297

Doug Upstone

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A's
Play: Oakland A's

Oakland lost late but is looking to rebound today and make something of their series against Seattle. They are always solid at home so when you get them at o.co at decent value you have to punch that ticket. A's starter A.J. Griffin drops his ERA more than half a run at home and is 5-3 by the Bay. He has a 3-1 career record against the Mariners and can push that even further with a series clinching win to keep pace in the American League this afternoon.

Freddy Wills

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Play: Atlanta Braves

Alex Wood has posted some strong numbers thus far this season and he has even stronger numbers of late with a 0.65 WHIP and a 0.98 ERA in his last 3 starts combined. Wood however has great raw stats with 9.93 K/9 and just 2.44 BB's per 9 for a 2.51 xFIP over 50+ innings of work. Wood goes up against the Mets who struggle offensively scoring 1.36 runs per 9 less than the Braves are vs. LHP. The Braves also face a lefty on Wednesday in Jonathan Niese.

Niese is making just his third start off the DL and it's his second start in a row on 4 days rest which is hard to figure when he just came off a game where he threw 111 pitches which is a lot for him. Niese has been awful vs. the Braves as they post a .852 OPS against him in 168 AB. He's allowed 10 ER and a WHIP just under 3.00 in two starts this year. Mets have not played well at home all year especially when they are under dogs going 17-43 in their last 60 as a +110 to +150 under dog.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Zack Greinke (3-0, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 0.90 ERA)
Anibal Sanchez
Derek Holland
A.J. Griffin

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Jake Westbrook (0-3, 16.2 IP, 1.74 WHIP, 8.10 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (1-2, 13IP, 1.83 WHIP, 7.90 ERA)
Mike Leake (2-1, 17 IP, 1.76 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Barry Zito (1-2, 10 IP, 2.20 WHIP, 9.90 ERA)
Jerome Williams (0-3, 15.1 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 7.04 ERA)

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis comes to town with a great offense, 3rd in baseball in runs, batting average and on base percentage. They are motivated, in a tighty pennant race with Pittsburgh for first place. Milwaukee has all kinds of problems and St. Louis has never had problems against Tom Gorzelanny, who is 2-5 with a 4.53 ERA against them. The Brewers are 12-27 in their last 39 vs. the National League Central. Meanwhile the Cardinals are 37-18 in their last 55 vs. a team with a losing record and 27-12 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Cardinals are 28-11 in the last 39 meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.

Bruce Marshall

Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

.It looks as if the desired effect of Ryne Sandberg's recent appointment as Phils' interim manager is hard to identify as the Phils slipped to 2-3 on his watch with another loss last night. And no reason to expect things to get any better tonight, even with "ace" Cliff Lee on the mound...some ace, with the Phils winless in his last five starts and Lee shellacked over the past three weeks, with an ERA of 6.19. Not good. We've noted a little more spark lately from Colorado, which finally posted a road win last night at CBP and confident that starter Juan Nicasio can pick up where he left off in his last start when holding the Orioles in check last Friday, allowing just two runs in six innings of a 6-3 win. No way the Phils should be laying this sort of price to any team right now.

Jesse Schule

Atlanta vs. NY Mets
Pick: Atlanta

The Braves own the best record in the major leagues (76-49), and they are 22-8 since the All Star break.

The Mets defeated the Braves at home yesterday, but wins at home haven't come easy for this team. With a home record of just 26-32, the Mets have been a far better team on the road.

They meet again Wednesday afternoon at Citi Field, and Jonathon Niese will be on the mound for the home team. Niese (5-6, 4.25 ERA) allowed just one run on six hits over six innings in a 5-2 win over the Padres in San Diego his last time out. He's won both his starts since returning from the DL, but both of those wins came on the road.

Just like the rest of the Mets, his numbers are far better on the road than they are at Citi Field. He's 1-4 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts at home this year.

His numbers against the Braves are not very encouraging, going 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA, allowing 10 runs on 15 hits over 7 1/3 innings in two starts this season.

When you look at the Braves lineup and their averages versus Niese, it's not surprising that the southpaw has struggled.

Justin Upton is 8-for-15 lifetime, while Jason Heyward is batting .409 with a pair of home runs versus the lefty. Freddie Freeman is hitting .333 with a pair of homers, and Evan Gattis, Reed Johnson, Dan Uggla, Gerald Laird, Chris Johnson and Paul Janish are all hitting .300 or better against him.

The Braves will counter with 22 year old left-hander Alex Wood, who is undefeated in six starts, and has allowed just two runs in his last three appearances.

Wood (2-0, 2.61 ERA) allowed just one run on five hits over 6 1/3 innings, striking out nine in a no decision, with the Braves winning 3-2 over the Nats his last time out.

The Braves are in a terrific spot to execute revenge for yesterday's loss to the Mets.

Ray Monohan

Cleveland Indians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Indians and their fireballing rookie Danny Salazar mastered the Angels yesterday winning 4-1 as slight underdogs. On Wednesday they follow up with their ace Justin Masterson. The odds are not nearly as good but I expect the result will be the same. Over 11 appearances Masterson has a record of 3-0 against the Angels though he wasn’t as sharp when he faced them a week and a half ago. Also favouring the Indians is the fact they get to tee off on the Angel’s Jerome Williams - he of the 5-9 record and ERA approaching 5. He has just 2 quality starts in his last 10 and lost to the Indians in that same contest against Masterson earlier this month.

Will Rogers

Chicago vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

The White Sox put up only two runs last night, scoring once in both the first and second innings, but that proved to be enough as John Danks shut out the Royals. For tonight, I'm giving out a free play on Kansas City, who still has at least a faint hope of getting the Wild Card. Chicago has had a terrible year overall.

Here are my keys to the game.

1. Unusual Circumstances - The White Sox come in on a four-game win streak while the Royals have lost three straight. Given the way the respective seasons have played out for these two clubs, I'd expect a reversal of fourtunes to begin shortly. Chicago's starting rotation has posted a 1.95 ERA during the four-game win streak, but how long can they carry this terrible offense. Kansas City's own offense is due to start turning things around.

2. Jeremy Guthrie - The Royals starter is coming off back to back rough outings. But he also had to face Boston and Detroit, who have the two best offenses in baseball. The White Sox offense is at the other end of the spectrum, averaging just 3.7 runs/game on the season. Before losing to the White Sox the last time he faced them, Guthrie had gone 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA his previous six starts against them.

3. X-Factor - Over the last three seasons, the Royals are 30-18 vs. the White Sox.

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Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Chicago Cubs -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Cubs will look to take the lead in their four game series with the Nationals when the two teams meet tonight at Wrigley Field up on the North Side of Chicago. Chicago took Game 1 by a score of 11-1 on Monday but the bats went quiet on Tuesday as the Cubs were 0-8 with runners in scoring position and took the loss 3-1. Chicago will send newly acquired Jake Arrieta to the hill tonight after he was acquired in a deadline deal with the Orioles. He struggled in Baltimore but has been lights out in his two starts with the Cubs, going 1-0 while posting a 0.69 ERA. Washington will counter with Ross Ohlendorf, who will be making his first start since coming off the DL with a right shoulder injury. He is 2-0 on the season with a 1.85 ERA but has struggled at Wrigley Field in his career, posting a 5.06 in 3 starts.
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Here are a few trends that have us leaning to the Cubs tonight at home:
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Nationals are 17-35 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Nationals are 6-18 in their last 24 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 Wednesday games.
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Pair those trends with the fact that the Nationals are just 2-6 in their last 8 games against a right-handed starter and we’ll take the Cubs at home tonight to get the win.