Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August, 22

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Dodgers and Giants conclude a pivotal three-game series in Los Angeles Wednesday night where Chris Capuano opposes Matt Cain. The Dodgers have come up empty in seven of their last 10 games behind Capuano, who toes the slab with a 2-4 career team start mark against San Francisco. With Cain is sharp KW form with 19 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts, and 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his last six team starts in this series, look for the G-Men to come up big here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Scott Spreitzer

Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Bronson Arroyo has not enjoyed his outings against Philadelphia. The righthander has been saddled with a 7.28 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, and a .323 BAA in 10 appearances against the Phils, including nine starts. His numbers in two outings at Citizens Bank Ballpark are even worse. Even with last night's loss, the Phillies are playing .571 baseball over their last 35 games. Winning at a 57% clip for the season would currently lead two divisions and be good enough to be in second place in the other four. And let's not forget that Vance Worley owned a 3.63 ERA through his first 18 starts of the season. I expect the righty to get back on track against a Reds' lineup that plates less than 4 rpg in road night games against righthanders. The Phillies enter on a 9-2 run as a home favorite and they're on a 5-0 run against Cinci when Arroyo toes the rubber. I'm recommending a play on the Phillies on Wednesday.

Tom Freese

Cleveland Indians vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Play: Cleveland Indians

The 60-64 Mariners are at home in Seattle for Game 3 of their 3 game series with the 54-69 Indians on Wednesday. 4-3 Iwakuma gets the call for Seattle while the Indians hand the rock over to 5-4 McAllister for tonight's game. Iwakuma comes into this game with an ERA of 3.79 giving up 33 earned runs in 78.1 innings pitched while allowing 32 walks along with 64 K's. In the Other dugout is McAllister who has an ERA of 3.64 allowing 34 earned runs in 84 innings pitched with 21 walks and 75 K's. The Indians are 6-1 in McAllister's last 7 Overall Starts as an Underdog and 7-3 in His last 10 Starts with the total set at 7.0 to 8.5. The Mariners are 1-4 in their in their last 5 Home Games against teams with sub .400 winning percentages and 2-7 on Wednesdays. Cleveland and McAllister get the "W" today.

Jesse Schule

Giants vs. Dodgers
Pick: Under

The Giants are threatening to sweep the the Dodgers in LA tonight, after taking the first two games of the series in a couple of low scoring ballgames. Tonight's fixture appears to set up as another pitcher's duel, with Matt Cain going up against Chris Capuano.

Capuano (11-8, 3.14 ERA) is coming off a loss his last time out, allowing three runs on five hits over seven innings, while striking out eight in a 4-3 loss to the Braves in Atlanta. Prior to that he tossed eight scoreless innings only allowing two hits in a 5-0 win over the Marlins. Capuano boasts a very impressive 2.17 ERA at home this season, in comparison with his 4.10 ERA on the road.

Hunter Pence has faced Capuano more than any other player in tonight's lineup for the Giants, and he hasn't had much success, batting .091 with three strikeouts in 11 career at bats.

The Giants will send Matt Cain to the mound tonight, coming off a pair of impressive outings. Cain (12 -5, 2.90 ERA) won his last start, allowing just one run on four hits over eight innings in a 10-1 blowout in San Diego. Prior to that he allowed a pair of runs while scattering seven hits over seven innings in a 9-3 victory over the Rockies. He is 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA in his last eight starts versus the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have seen the total go UNDER the number in all of their last five games overall, and we expect that trend to continue here today.

Brad Diamond

Reds vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8½

The Phillies complete their three game series with the Reds on Wednesday putting RHP Vance Worley in the driver’s seat. But, the young hurler has been through location issues in his last three starts earning an 0-2 mark with one no-decision. He has given up 12 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. This bodes well for visiting Cincinnati who has gone OVER 6 straight heading into Tuesday night action. In fact, the Reds are OVER the last 6 outings versus Philadelphia. With 4-0 OVER vs. teams with .600 or better, I will take a ticket on the OVER in this situation.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland has an under the radar arm going in Zach McAllister (5-4, 2.64 ERA), fanning 75 in 84 innings, allowing only 21 walks and allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. His last start against Oakland he threw 91 pitches, 63 for strikes. McAllister has gone 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in his seven starts since the All-Star break with a 34-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 42 2/3 innings pitched. The Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and the Indians are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Seattle. Play the Indians.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox

Jered Weaver is a little off right now, while Clay Buchholz is on fire for Boston. I'm going with the Red Sox to get the job done tonight against the Angels.

Bryan Leonard

Atlanta / Washington
Play: Over 7.5

With a rain delay wreaking havoc on both managers, forcing Stephen Strasburg and Paul Maholm into shortened outings, the bullpens will be taxed on Tuesday night and that's not a good thing with Wednesday's pitching matchup. Kris Medlen has bounced back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation and has made 42 appearances already on the season, with just four them in a starting role. Ross Detwiler has also bounced back and forth this season, though he has made 19 starts in 25 appearances. In those 19 starts, he's averaging just 5.2 innings per start. Detwiler has allowed 14 runs in his last five starts. Further increasing the chance for runs, over umpire Paul Nauert will be behind the plate. In his 25 games calling balls and strikes, the over has hit 16 times and his games are averaging 10.38 runs.

JR O'Donnell

Boston Red Sox +110

The LA Angels (62-60 & 29-31 road) visit the Boston Red Sox (59-63 & 29-34 home) with two teams seemingly out of the AL playoffs. Angels sit better, but have struggled at late going 3-7 in their last "10". Still they send their ace Jared Weaver to the mound (15-3, 2.74 ERA & .97 WHIP), but in his last "5" starts he has struggled, and at Fenway for his career he is 1-3, 7.16 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched. He faces righty Clay Bucholz (11-3, 4.19 ERA & 1.28 WHIP) who is 3-0 in his last "5" starts, and 6-1 at home in the friendly confines of Fenway Park. In his last "6" starts he is 3-0, 1.53 ERA in 47+ innings pitched.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +162 over OAKLAND

Tommy Milone is 9-9 with a 4.03 ERA. On July 14th, he was 9-6 with a 3.54 ERA so we’ve seen a significant and well deserved correction to his numbers. Over his last five starts, dating back to July 14, Milone is 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA. Milone has very good control (29 walks in 145 innings) but after that, his skills are middling at best with a fastball that caps in the mid 80’s and a fly-ball bias profile that reads 37% groundballs, 24% line-drives and 39% fly-balls. The book is out on him and it’s an easy read for hitters. Pitching for a weak offense (the A’s are hitting .229, the third worst mark in the majors) and showing signs of fatigue, Milone does not deserve this billing.

Liam Hendriks gets another shot in the majors. Hendriks' initial tour of duty this season did not go well, due in part to some bad luck (36% hit rate, 65% strand rate) and some bad nerves. Don’t discount this youngster yet. After his demotion, he posted a 9-2 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP mark at AAA-Rochester. Since being sent back down, Hendriks has given up two runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts, pitching seven innings in seven of them. In those starts, he had a 40/15 K/BB ratio. He also had a 1.74 ERA with outstanding command at A-ball in 2010 and a 3.12 ERA at AA in 2011. His ascension through the minors was likely too quick (less than 50 IP above AA), but a strong GB% rate is encouraging, as are his other skills. Hendriks’ time may have arrived and with an offering like this one, the risk is worth the reward.

WASHINGTON +106 over Atlanta

The Braves are favored here because Kris Medlen is 4-0 in four starts with a 0.95 ERA since being inserted into the starting rotation. Give him credit but things aren’t always as they seem. In those four starts, Medlen faced Miami, Houston, the reeling Mets and San Diego. Out of 16 National League teams, that quartet ranks a respective 12th, 13th 14th and 16th offensively. Medlen has good skills and plenty of potential but his stock is off the charts and being 25 months removed from Tommy-John surgery and being in a completely different setting than he was in his first four starts, this is an outstanding sell high opportunity.

Washington won again last night to go 31 games above .500. They have the best record in the majors and Ross Detwiler has quietly gone 6-1 at home with a 2.69 ERA. Detwiler had a rock solid July, largely attributed to his excellent command and a strong 53% groundball bias. It's easy to forget that Detwiler was the seventh overall pick in the 2007 draft. He has shown significant skill growth this season with an increasing strikeout rate and decreasing walk rate. His raw stuff is getting better too. His average fastball velocity the last three seasons: 89.7 mph, 92.2 mph, 92.6 mph and he’s become an elite groundball pitcher this season. Even if he's not as good as his 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP might suggest, Detwiler's emergence as a starter this season is for real.

Did we mention that the Braves are 21-25 against left-handed starters this season? A sweep here by the Nationals pretty much puts this NL East flag to rest and with momentum, home-field advantage, a rather even pitching matchup, in no way should this powerhouse be a pooch to close out this series.

MLBPredictions

Minnesota Twins +155

You can now find this play all the way up to +170, but I locked it in last night at +155 and still think we have value at that price. The Twins dropped last night's game 4-1 and have gone 1-6 in their last 7 games, while the Athletics have won 5 of their last 6. With that said Oakland has a struggling Tommy Milone on the mound this afternoon. Milone has pretty good numbers on the season at 9-9 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average - but over his last four starts he has struggled heavily. In those starts he allowed 7+ hits in each and 5, 5, 6, and 4 earned runs against. I don't take it for much, but note that Milone is just 1-4 with a 5.68 ERA in day games. Minnesota has Liam Hendriks on the mound who has pretty awful numbers at 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and .345 opponents batting average, but he has shown that he does have the ability to pitch well as he has gone 9-3 with a 2.20 ERA in Triple-A with a WHIP of 0.98 and opponents batting average of .201. In his last AAA start he allowed 4 runs in 7 innings of work, but his previous three starts he allowed just 1 run in 21 innings of work. Again take it for what it's worth, but Hendriks is 0-1 with a low 2.45 ERA in his two day game starts in the Majors this season. With Milone struggling I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins get their bats going, and lead Hendriks to his first win. Take the Twins as big underdogs this afternoon.

Reds / Phillies Over 8.5

The first two meetings of the season between these teams the past two days have both gone OVER the total with a 12-5 Philadelphia win and last night's 5-4 Cincinnati victory. The OVER is now 7-0 in the Reds last 7 games overall. Taking the mound for Cincy is Bronson Arroyo who is 9-7 with a 3.96 ERA this year. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed 14 earned runs. Vance Worley is 6-8 on the season with a 4.11 ERA, but is just 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA since the All Star break. He is just 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA at home this season as well. Over his last three starts Worley's ERA is a high 7.90. Take note that the OVER is 20-8 in the Phillies last 28 home games with a total set between 7 and 8.5, the OVER is 7-3 in Worley's last 10 home starts, and 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs a team with a winning record. The OVER is 8-2 in these two teams last 10 meetings, and 7-0 in their last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. Also note that the Reds have scored 5+ runs in 7 of their last 8 games, while the Phillies are averaging 7 runs per game over their last 4. This game should make it over the 8.5 total and we will risk 1 unit on it with confidence.

Bryan Power

NY Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

After suffering a surprising sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals, the White Sox have turned the tables to start the week here at home vs. the Yankees, winning 9-6 and 7-3 the last 2 days. They've gone 49-37 vs. right-handed starters this year and with their own ace on the hill Wednesday night, I like Chicago's chances to finish off the three-game sweep.

Southpaw Chris Sale has been "lights out" at US Cellular Field this season, going 7-2 in 10 starts with a 1.80 ERA. His last start here saw him strike out 11 batters against no walks in a 7-3 win over Oakland. His last six decisions at home have all resulted in wins as he's gone 6-0 over a seven-start stretch with a 1.17 ERA. Making the case stronger for a White Sox sweep is the fact they've gone 24-13 this season when off back to back victories.

Meanwhile, Yankees starter Phil Hughes isn't nearly as strong on the road. He's gone 3-7 with a 5.31 ERA away from Yankees Stadium this season and in his last 2 road starts he's given up a total of 11 runs. New York has lost 4 of 6 overall to Chicago this season.

Joe Gavazzi

T-Bay Rays -200

Respect is given to the recent Royals uptick which extends to 14-7 with their 1-0 victory over the Rays last night. We must keep in mind that on the road KC is on recent slides of 4-13 and 1-5. Despite last night's loss the Rays are still on positive runs of 12-3 and 5-1. They are 25-7 and 6-1 versus Kansas City in this series on this field. Shields reflects that series dominance with a record of 4-1 and 1.63 ERA from this mound in this series. Lay it with Confidence!

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -120

The Cardinals get the call on the run line as our free play considering the advantage they have on the mound with Lohse (12-2, 2.61 ERA), who is 6-0 with a 2.18 ERA in last 11 starts. Houston's Norris (5-10, 5.23) is 0-9 with a 6.98 ERA in his last 13 starts.

The Cards are 10-0 this season in Lohse's starters versus teams that are outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game. The Red Birds have won by an average score of 5.6 to 2.6 in this situation.

The Astros have lost 5 in a row with each of those defeats coming by at least 2 runs. The fact they failed to score more than 4 runs in any of these games is significant because they are 0-10 in road games after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games this season. They have lost by an average score of 6.6 to 3.1 in this situation.

The Astros have lost 12 of Norris' last 13 starts, and 9 of those losses came by 2 runs or more. Bet St. Louis on the run line.