BRETT ATKINS
The free play winning streak might have ended on Tuesday, but I'm still 7-1 with my last eight freebies. Tonight, I'm getting right back on the winning track wiht a comp play on the Cubs as they'll get the job done in Washington against the Nationals.
Chicago has won two straight and they are about to make it three in a row over the Nationals in Washington tonight when they send Ryan Dempster (11-8, 3.56 ERA) to the mound.
Dempster is 2-0 in his last three outings with a 2.11 ERA and Chicago has won three of his last four outings. He pitched extremely well in his last start, allowing just two runs in eight innings of a 5-3 loss to the Braves. Dempster has held the opposition to two runs or less in four straight games and his last roadie he gave up two runs in 6.2 innings of a 9-7 win in St. Louis.
Jason Marquis goes for the Nationals and he’s been horrible this season with his 11.39 ERA. Last time he faced the Cubs he gave up five runs in six innings of a 6-5 loss.
Chicago has won six straight in Washington and they are 10-4 in the last 14 matchups with the Nationals. I’m going with the Cubs to make it three in a row tonight.
3♦ CHICAGO CUBS
Ben Burns
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
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Don't tell Detroit fans that the Tigers won't make the playoffs. Indeed, while the playoffs are extremely unlikely, the Tigers are on a bigtime roll. They're 5-0 on their current 6-game home stand and they've outscored the Royals 21-4 in the first two games of the series. They're now back to .500 overall, thanks to an outstanding 43-24 record at Comerica Park. This afternoon's matchup should give them an excellent shot at a sweep.
While he'll always be remembered for his "almost perfect game" Galarraga has had trouble at times this season. That trouble has mostly come on the road though, where he has an awful 6.44. He's been MUCH better at home. In 10 starts here, he's got a very respectable 3.34 ERA and 1.143 WHIP.
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Galarraga is also coming off a gem. He allowed just three hits through seven shutout innings. He had 8 K's and 0 walks. He was quoted as saying: "Tonight, every pitch was in the zone, every pitch had a purpose and every pitch was on the corner. I just kept getting better and better. The sinker was good, the changeup was unbelievable and so was the slider."
He went on to say: "...now everything is coming together again..."
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Galarraga should be happy to see KC. He's 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA in six appearances (five starts) in his career against the Royals. As a starter, he has a 1.97 ERA against them. With his teammates swinging the bats well and with an uproven opposing starter, he also figures to get some solid run support.
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O'Sullivan has pitched quite well out of the bullpen. He's only 1-4 with an ugly 6.09 ERA as a starter though. Over his last three starts, he's 0-3 with a terrible 6.89 ERA and 1.707 WHIP. If you're one who doesn't mind playing favorites of this size, consider laying the wood with the red hot home team.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +100
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The Cubs are 2-0 since Lou Piniella called it quits, and I expect them to continue their winning ways tonight. Chicago has won 4 straight on the road, and six in a row at Washington. The Cubs will be in good hands with Dempster on the bump tonight. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in four starts this month. Plus, Dempster is 6-1 with a 3.50 ERA in 13 career starts against the Nationals franchise. Chicago will welcome former-Cub Jason Marquis to the mound tonight, considering he is 0-9 with an ERA of 8.87 in his last 11 starts. It is also worth noting that his ERA is 20.25 in 3 home starts this season. He is also just 4-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 starts against his former mates. Take the Cubs.
Lenny Del Genio
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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Despite the price tag, we recommend a play on the Padres tonight as they look to make it two straight over Arizona. The Diamondbacks have failed to plate a single run in their last two games, losing 5-0 in last night's series opener as the NL West leaders improved to 13-1 when priced between -150 and -200 this season at home. San Diego is now a perfect 7-0 at home vs. Arizona. D'backs starter Joe Saunders is 0-3 with a 6.55 ERA in his previous three outings, including a 10-1 loss to these Padres back on August 8th. His club barely averages more than four full runs per game on the road. Let's not Arizona is a horrible 3-17 when scoring four runs or less in their previous three games as well as 13-31 in double revenge situations and lay the price. Take San Diego.
SPORTS WAGERS
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COLORADO +1.16 over Atlanta
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Esmil Rogers is looking more confident and comfortable with each start and it was topped off by an outstanding effort in his last start in which he threw 6.1 innings of six-hit, one run ball in Arizona. Rogers is a converted shortstop who has shown surprising polish for his inexperience. He generates an 88-94 mph fastball because of his quick, fluid arm and clean mechanics. Rogers commands his fastball well and is able to work down in the strike zone to lure groundballs. He also uses two variations of a curveball that frequently gets hitters to swing and miss. He has an excellent GB/FB ratio of 47%/28% and he also has a very good BB/SO ratio with 16BB/42K’s in 47 IP. Since being inserted into the starting rotation three starts ago, Rogers has not walked more than one batter in any of those starts and has three walks and 14 k’s in 18 IP. The kid throws strikes and he’ll face a Braves squad that is not only laboring offensively but that’s never seen him before and that, too, works in his favor. Since returning from the strained hamstring and weakened shoulder that put him on the DL in early May, Jair Jurrjens has been a different player. On the surface, Jair Jurrjens shows continued growth… but not so fast. Jurrjens ERA is 2.90 since returning from the DL, but the xERA says Jurrjens ERA should be closer to 4.50 than it is to 3.00, thus expect a correction in his numbers. If you look at his last four starts he’s had it pretty soft with the Cubbies, Dodgers, Houston and San Fran and all four of those were struggling miserably when facing Jurrjens. Over that four-game stretch his strand rate was 78% and his xERA was 5.72. Jurrjens is steady but he’s not as good as his numbers suggest and so, that aforementioned correction has a great chance of occurring here. Play: Colorado +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
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Chicago +1.00 over WASHINGTON
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For the first time all year it looks like the Cubbies are relaxed and having fun. It appears as though the departure of Sweet Lou has alleviated the tension and now the Cubs are playing some baseball. They’ve come in here and have outscored the Nats 14-5 in winning the first two games of the series. Incidentally, the Nats scored three in the ninth last night to make a 5-1 score look a lot more respectable at 5-4. Now the Cubbies will get the most favorable matchup of the series and they’re still not laying anything. Jason Marquis is 0-6 with an ERA of 11.39. Since coming off the DL his ERA is 6.03 and that’s with a strand rate of 80%. He’s also walked eight batters and struck out just six in three starts since returning and the league is hitting .356 off him. Ryan Dempster's name will never be mentioned among the NL's elite starters, but the veteran deserves more respect than he gets. A dependable and solid starter can be gold and Dempster is once again proving his worth. He’s 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA over his last four starts and has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of them. So, to recap, Marquis doesn’t throw strikes but he does throw batting practice out there. He’s a complete stiff and the fact that he’s favored over Marquis is ludicrous. Not even Chris Angel can make this illusion work. Play: Chicago +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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Cincinnati +1.02 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Homer Bailey has never matched the potential found in his raw stuff. He’s spent a lot of time on the DL but finished very strong last season and he’s shown signs of brilliance in the past and has duplicated that in two starts back since coming off the DL. In a nine-game stretch last year, Bailey went 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA. In two starts since coming off the DL, he’s allowed just seven hits in 13 IP for a BAA of .156. He also struck out 10 while issuing just two free passes. Bailey is just 24-years-old, he has a ton of upside and his stuff is reminiscent of the Jays Brandon Morrow. Madison Baumgarner is absolutely showing signs of fatigue or perhaps the league is catching up to him. He’s allowed eight hits or more in four straight starts and his strand rate over that stretch was an unsustainable 79%. Also note that his fly-ball rate went way up over that same stretch and that’s not a good sign. In his last two starts he’s induced 33 fly-ball outs to just 17 groundball outs. Long-term, Baumgarner’s future continues to look incredibly bright. For the remainder of this season, be prepared for the inconsistencies that come with any young hurler, and know that workload concerns could enter the picture soon -- he threw 141 IP in 2008 and 2009, and is at 145 IP between the minors and majors coming into this game. Small line could be enticing for Giant backers but they have no edge other than home field. Play: Cincinnati +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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TORONTO +1.22 over NY Yankees
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Phil Hughes is second in the league with 15 wins and he’s also 6-2 over his last eight decisions. He’s put up some very good numbers with outstanding control and pitching for the Yanks sure doesn’t hurt either. Having said that, there are some things to be concerned about if you’re thinking of laying the price here. Hughes has a very unappealing high fly-ball rate of 53%. His groundball rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors among qualified starters and at this park against this homerun hitting lineup, Hughes could run into some big trouble. Also note that the Jays have seen him twice over the past six weeks and both those came at Yankee Stadium. In those two starts against Toronto, he allowed six runs in 11 innings of work. The Jays AL second-best OPS vs. RHP suggests that this is as tough a matchup as it gets for Hughes. At home vs right-handers the Jays are 30-16. Brett Cecil has faced the Yanks twice this year and in 14 IP against them his ERA is 1.29. Cecil has allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts and if he’s throwing strikes and is on his game, he’s tough as shoe leather. Once again, when you play the Yanks you’re going to pay a premium to do so and once again they’re overpriced in a game that they really have no advantage whatsoever. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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Baltimore +1.64 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
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Mark Buehrle has shown a serious decline in his skills going all the way back to the second half of last season. He also has a ton of miles on his arm at the age of 31 and is a big risk to get rocked every time he takes the hill. Buehrle has just 68 K’s on the year in 160 IP and that means the O’s will get some good cracks at him. They faced him recently and while they scored just three runs off him, they still racked up 10 hits in seven innings. Buehrle has a nice-looking ERA of 3.87 but an xERA of 5.02 to go along with a BAA of .285 suggests that he’s been very fortunate and you can expect his ERA to head south the final few weeks of the season. Buehrle has a history of being very dependable and consistent. However, the huge fade in the 2H of '09 combined with some pedestrian beneath the surface stats this season are big warning signs that should not be ignored. Fact is, Buehrle is way overpriced here against Brian Matusz. Matusz is a talented lefty that has the ability to dominate. He’s gaining steam right now and is coming off an eight-inning, five-hit shutout against the Rangers. He’s allowed just one jack over his last five starts and that is right in line with an increased groundball rate that went from 38% to 46% over those last five starts. Matusz is so close to putting it all together and the wager here is that he’s better than Buehrle in the first half of the game. Play: Baltimore +1.64 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
Stan Lisowski
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Milwaukee Brewers
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LA has had issues behind starter Kuroda of late, losing 7 of his last 10 outings. On the road, they are just 4-7 when he takes the hill. The home team is 15-9 in his starts on the year. The Dodgers have dropped 29 of 44 when installed as an underdog this season. The Brewers have won Wolf’s last 3 starts.
JR O'Donnell
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SFG / CIN Under 8
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Let's play the Giants under as the Giants/Reds battle stays way under the posted total of 8. No one but the sharp JR O'ster will have the swagger & mojo to play the Under. Looking @ 2 days of these teams scoring a ton of runs, These 2 put up 34 runs the last 2 days and the Giants Madison Bumgarner 5-4, 3.20 will stop the output! Looking hard @ the Reds Homer Bailey, he checks in @ 3-2, 4.52 ERA. He will be a steady rock today as runs will not come as easy for these 2 ball clubs early Thursday. The Power Ratings are in for JR 0 at 7 runs here, a full +1 run off the posted Vegas line.The Public will pound the Over and we will play the Under 2 fisted! The homeplate Ump today Hirshbeck is a way "Under" ump and the San Fran Giants are a perfect 5-0 100% under the last 5 behind Bumgarner. Under it goes
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Tampa Bay Rays at LA Angels
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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The LA Angels host the Tampa Bay Rays today at 3:35 PM EST. Today’s Tip is all about the pitching matchup! Tampa Bay had a huge win over LA yesterday 10-3. Niemann is starting for Tampa Bay and has been pitching excellent! He has a consistent 3.12 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in all his starts this season. Niemann tends to have great starts when pitching on the road since he has an almost perfect team start record of 9-1 when starting in road games. On the other side of the pitching matchup, Haren starts for the Angels. He is not pitching very well, giving up seven runs in his last matchup against Minnesota and having a very poor 5.14 ERA in his last three starts. Tampa Bay is 4-1 against LA this season and is going for game five tonight!
Wunderdog
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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The Kansas City Royals have not been a good road team for years and this season sees them floundering on the road once again at 24-40. They have been outscored in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 21-4. The losses drop their recent road swoon to 3-15. The Tigers have caught fire. They have won five straight games by a combined total of 40-7! The Royals are now 2-12 on the road facing an anticipated high scoring game with a total set from 9-10.5. They are also just 1-8 on the road vs a team with a home wining percentage over .600. The Tigers are on mop-up duty vs poor road teams as they are an amazing 50-20 in their last 70 vs a road team with a winning percentage of under .400. I'll go with Detroit here.
Matt Fargo
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs have won the first two games of this series which have coincided with the start of interim manager Mike Quade who took over for Lou Piniella after his early retirement on Sunday. The Cubs go for the sweep tonight behind a huge pitching advantage that does not seem to be incorporated with this line. Chicago has had a rough season on the road this year at 25-36 but going back to its last roadtrip it has won four straight and the new manager may have pumped some life into this team for the home stretch.
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Washington has now dropped three straight games and it is only 4-12 over its last 16 contests. The Nationals were a solid bet at home earlier in the season and while still over .500 on the season, they have lost a lot of their value since they are getting put into the role of favorite. It has gotten a lot worse as Washington is just 2-7 in its last nine home games and with the first two losses in this series, the Nationals have dropped six straight at home to the Cubs.
The Cubs go with Ryan Dempster who has been the most consistent pitcher in the rotation this season. He has tossed four straight quality outings and of his 26 starts, 18 have been quality performances which is a very positive percentage. The Cubs have won six of his last nine starts including three of four on the road which is a big turnaround from when they were losing the majority of his starts.
Dempster has faced Washington three times while with the Cubs and has three quality starts while posting a 2.42 ERA.
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The Nationals counter with Jason Marquis who is coming off his best start of the season which is not saying much. He allowed one run in five innings against the Phillies but he has yet to post a quality outing on the season. Washington is 0-6 in his six starts on the season including 0-3 since his return from AAA Syracuse. In three home starts his ERA is a whopping 20.25.
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Play against home teams with an on-base percentage of .260 or worse over their last three games and starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 2.000 or worse over his last five starts. This situation is 59-31 (65.6 percent) since 1997. 3* Chicago Cubs
Doug Upstone
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
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The Chicago White Sox have crawled back to within three games of the loss column of Minnesota in the AL Central after last night. The White Sox have been crushing the ball, averaging 6.2 runs per game in past 10 on almost 13 base hits per contest (12.8). Ozzie Guillen’s club does other little things well that go unnoticed, like being second in the AL in stolen bases with 116. This is also underrated fielding club, ranking fourth in fielding percentage and total chances in the junior circuit.
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For Wednesday, we look to Play On home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250, who are good base-running team ,averaging 0.85 or more stolen bases game on the season, after four straight contests where they committed no errors. Being a solid home favorite and executing the fundamentals, this team is at 55-12 the past 13 years.
Hollywood Sports
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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While it is a little pricier than what we normally recommend, there is still relative value with this play. San Diego is dominant at home having won 13 of their last 16 games in PETCO Park. On the other hand, Arizona has lost 62 of their last 89 road games. They send out their recent acquisition in Joe Saunders who is 1-3 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with Arizona. But Saunders has a 1.50 WHIP and .304 opponent's batting average as the visiting pitcher this season. San Diego's offense brightens against left-handers at home as they sport a .283 batting average while winning eight of their last nine home games against lefty starters. Wade LeBlanc takes the ball for the Padres with his 7-11 mark along with a 3.85 ERA and .140 WHIP. But LeBlanc is very tough in the spacious PETCO given his 2.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .257 opponent's batting average at home this season. He also has a solid 3.38 ERA in 16 innings of work against Arizona. The Diamondbacks are hitting only .184 against lefties over their last ten game while losing four straight against lefty starters. Lay the price with San Diego while listing both pitchers.
Larry Ness
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Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
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The D'backs won just 70 games in 2009 and the Padres won 75. However, last night's 5-0 win by San Diego over Arizona allowed the Padres to match last year's win total (75-49) with 38 games still remaining to the regular season while the D'backs fell to 49-77, a pace which would give them just 63 wins come October 3. The Padres own the NL's best record and are easily MLB's top "money-maker," with a plus-$3,052 moneyline mark (almost DOUBLE that of the No. 2 Reds, who check in at plus-$1,664). The Padres are 5 1/2 games up on the Giants in the NL West and will play 16 of their next 19 games here at Petco, where the Padres are 37-22. The team leads all of MLB with a 3.25 ERA and its bullpen ERA of 2.82 is .30 lower than the team with MLB's second-best mark. Wade LeBlanc gets the nod and while his ERA is 5.37 on the road, it's 2.59 ERA here at Petco (team is just 7-5, though). However, the Padres have won five in a row and 13 of their 16 at home plus have beaten the D'backs EIGHT consecutive times here in San Diego. LeBlanc owns with a 1.64 ERA in two career home starts vs Arizona and the D'backs will counter with a struggling Joe Saunders. The former Angel began with two strong starts in the NL but he's lost three in a row, allowing 26 hits and 13 ERs in 18 innings for a 6.50 ERA. That includes allowing eight hits and six runs (five earned) over six innings of a 10-1 loss to the Padres back on August 8 in Arizona. The game is a little 'pricey' but the Padres are worth an small play.
Info Plays
3* on Pittsburgh Pirates +156
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Reasons the Pirates win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (PITTSBURGH) - allowing 5.3 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games. This is a 45-21 ML System hitting 68.2% since 1997 while gaining +48.5 units. This system is 11-2 this season. Bet the Pirates at home.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Texas Rangers -150
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The Rangers have dominated at home all season long, especially with Wilson on the mound. Texas is 12-2 in Wilson's 14 home starts this season, and I look for this dominance to continue tonight. Duensing has pitched well since moving to the starting rotation, but he will have his work cut out for himself tonight against a team that is hitting .293 and scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this season. The Twins are just 1-5 in Duensing's last 6 starts as an underdog, and they are just 12-25 in their last 37 games as an underdog. The home team has won every single game in the season series, and I look for this trend to continue tonight.