Black Widow
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1* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 +102 (Game 1)
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Boston continues to fight, scratch and claw their way into the AL East race. This team is not going to give up. They sit 5.5 games back in the division and we look for Boston to finish the season strong. They aren't going to slip up tonight against the Seattle Mariners, who feature the worst offense in the American League. Seattle his hitting .237 and scoring 3.3 runs/game this year, and they are 20-44 on the road this season. Boston is hitting .277 and scoring 5.2 runs/game at home. Seattle has lost three straight games by 3 runs or more. David Pauley goes for the Mariners, and he sports a 6.13 ERA through three road starts this year. Josh Beckett has not been on his game this year, but he has fared well against the Mariners. Beckett is 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last 5 starts against Seattle, allowing just 6 earned runs in 33.1 innings. Seattle is 10-40 (-21.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by 2.7 runs/game. Boston is 18-2 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, winning by 3.3 runs/game. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line.
EZWINNERS
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Oakland A's -$131
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The Indians are in a free fall and they are up against one of the best pitchers in the American League that most people don't know about. Oakland's starting pitcher Trevor Cahill is having an great season for the A's. Cahill leads the team with 13 wins tying him for seventh in the American League, is second in the American League with an 0.99 WHIP and is third in the American League with an ERA of 2.54. Cahill picked up his thirteenth win in his last start against the Rays as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits over his eight innings of work. Prior to that game Cahill had allowed just one earned run in his previous thirty three innings pitched. Cahill is clearly on a roll and I look for his success to continue against the struggling Cleveland lineup. The Indians starting pitcher Mitch Talbot has been struggling for a while and even an Oakland lineup that struggled offensively should be able to score some runs. Over his last three starts Talbot is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA. Talbot recently came off of the disabled list but it appears that he still may not be 100% healthy. Oakland has won ten out of the last twelve meetings between these two teams and the A's are 15-3 in Cahill's last eighteen starts as a favorite. Play on Oakland.
Jack Jones
Marlins vs Mets
Pick: Over 8
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I am taking the OVER in this game Wednesday in a battle between what I feel are two below-average starting pitchers. Neither starter has pitched many inning this year, with Alex Sanabia throwing 31 frames and Pat Misch hurling 12 innings. Misch has given up 7 runs, 4 earned, in his 12 innings this year while Sanabia has yielded 8 earned runs in 13 innings on the road for a 5.54 ERA. Misch is 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA in three career starts vs. Florida.
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These teams exploded for 11 combined runs last night and I fully expect another double-digit run output tonight. And last night's game featured Josh Johnson vs. R.A. Dickey, the two starters for their respective teams that have pitched the best this season. The OVER is 9-4 in 13 meetings between the Mets & Marlins this season, so these teams are used to high-scoring affairs. Florida is 31-15 to the OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The Mets are 42-18 to the OVER when playing on Wednesday over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
Nelly
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Chicago - over Washington
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The Cubs have been the least profitable team to back in baseball this year but there could be some late season value on the team, now with the coaching change and mainly young talent playing in the lineup. Ryan Dempster has enjoyed a solid season with an 11-8 record and a 3.56 ERA and he has dominated his last four starts, allowing just five runs while going 3-0 in decisions. Desmpter took a tough luck loss to Washington earlier this season despite allowing just four hits in eight innings and Washington is batting just .228 in the last ten games. The Cubs have been scoring runs, batting .278 in the last ten games and while the bullpen has been a disaster the team is playing with some confidence following Lou Piniella's departure. Washington is 3-7 in the last ten games and the recent home numbers have been ugly. Washington is 0-6 behind Jason Marquis this season with horrendous numbers, allowing five or more runs in five of those six games. Trusting the Nats as favorites rarely makes sense.
John Ryan
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
5* graded play on the Red Sox as they take on Seattle in game 2 of the double header starting at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the BoSox will win this game. Hernandez has not allowed an earned run in three straight starts. in his second to last start, a 9-1 loss to the Indians, he did allow 6 runs, but NONE were earned. he is just 9-10 despite having a very strong 2.60 ERA and a 1.132 WHIP on the season. Lester was really roughed up in his last start against Toronto, but he has come back very strong after a poor start for his entire career. The last time he allowed seven or more earned runs was on April 18th against Tampa Bay and in the next start he allowed zero earned runs. We expect him to completely dominate the worst hitting team in baseball tonight. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-11 making 36.6 units since 2004 for 82% winners. Play on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 and is an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start. and facing solid starter sporting an ERA<=4.20. Take the BoSox.
Tony George
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Oakland Athletics
The line looks fishy, but I cannot turn away Cahill on the hill with a 13-5 record for the As, under a 2 ERA in his last 3 starts, and playing the Tribe who are deplorable and thrown it in, trust me, I saw them play KC last week in person. The Tribe 2-7 their last 9 at home and the As have owned this series winning 10 out of the last 12. Cleveland is hitting .221 as a team against right handers, Trevor Cahill is one of the better righties around, no run support for the Tribe to night and Oakland rolls.
O.C. Dooley
Marlins / Mets Under 8
The “intangible” actually has to do with last night’s stunning 6-5 shootout between these two teams which was completely unexpected when you consider the posted total (6’) was extremely low. Last night was supposed to be a pitchers duel between Josh Johnson and R.A. Dickey who entered with extremely low ERA’s. Even though the Wednesday pitching matchup is not as enticing statistically this is the contest where we could see a low scoring duel inside New York’s spacious Citi Field where it is much more difficult to hit homeruns as compared to Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Alex Sanabia has so far has shined in 5 major league starting assignments where he has allowed “one or less” runs in a game 4 different times. Sananbia was already lights out in Florida’s minor league system posting a spectacular ERA (1.92) in 16 separate starting assignments. Opposing this impressive youngster is Pat Misch who has lasted 6 innings in each of his starts for the Mets ever since being called up to the major league level. The problem for Misch is that in both of those appearances his teammates have supported him with a grand total of just TWO runs. Last night’s 6-5 contest was very unusual for a Mets contingent that is 10-2 UNDER in their most recent dozen outings. For the entire season to date the Mets are 18-5 UNDER after a “ten game” stretch where they failed to hit more than 1 homer in a contest. Also for the entire season to date the Marlins are 15-6 UNDER after suffering a slim “one run” margin of defeat. Florida just happens to be a resounding 17-4 UNDER when cast as a small road underdog of “150 or less” which is the case in this early evening affair