Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August 26,2009

Vernon Croy
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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We are getting very good value here with the Rays Wednesday night who have the superior pitcher on the mound. The Rays are 6-1 in Scott Kazmir's (8-7, 6.17 ERA) last 7 starts against an AL East division opponent and they are also 4-1 in Kazmir's last 5 starts overall. The Jays are just 7-19 in their last 26 games against a lefty starter and they were just 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog at home before Tuesday night's game. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.

Matt Fargo
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Over 9.5
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Cincinnati and Milwaukee put up 14 runs last night, 12 before the game went to extra innings, and we should see more of the same tonight. The Reds had scored a total of six runs in a four-game span before putting up 12 runs over the last two games as the offense looks to be finally hitting against. As for the Brewers, they have averaged a healthy 6.8 rpg over their last five games. Aaron Harang was supposed to be in this spot but he is out for the season after going through an emergency appendectomy this past weekend. His spot will be taken by Kip Wells who is making his first start in over a year when he was with the Rockies. Wells has pitched out of the bullpen all season and he has been far from effective. He has a 5.91 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 26 appearances between Washington and Cincinnati. His last stint as a starting pitcher was not good as he put up a seven-spot in just one-third of an inning and his last six starts going back to 2007, he has posted an 11.03 ERA and 2.75 WHIP covering only 23.2 innings. Braden Looper has been hit or miss all season long. Only 11 of his 26 starts have been quality outings and that includes only five of his 14 starts at home. He is 11-6 on the season but that is a façade as he has a 4.95 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the year. The reason for the lack of losses is due to solid run support as Milwaukee has given him 5.7 rpg on the entire season and that goes up in his more recent outings as the Brewers have plated 6.5 rpg over his last 11 outings with nine of those games going over the total which comes as no surprise. The ‘Over’ is 14-2 in the Brewers last 16 home games against a team with a losing record and the ‘Over’ is 5-1 in Looper’s last six starts against a team with a losing record. Looper is also on a 7-0 ‘Over’ run following a quality outing in his last start.
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3* Over Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers

Cajun Sports
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Houston Astros vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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These two teams square-off for Game Two of their three-game series on Wednesday night at Busch Stadium after the Cardinals took Game One on Tuesday by a score of 1 to 0. Six of the last seven games in this series have fallen below the posted total. Houston has struggled on the road this season with a record of 26-34 (-2.0) scoring 4.3 runs per game with a batting average of .260. Their Achilles Heel has been their bullpen when playing on the road this season with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.626. Houston is ranked 22 in pitching with an ERA of 4.50 with opponents hitting .274 and an OBP of .343. They will send Roy Oswalt to the bump with his road record of 4-2 and an ERA of 4.04 this season. Over his last three outings he is 1-0 with an ERA of 5.50 in those starts. The Cardinals have been much stronger posting a record of 37-24 at home averaging 4.2 runs per game with a batting average of .263. They are ranked 17 in hitting with a batting average of .261 averaging 4.5 runs per game and an OPS of .748. The real strength has been their pitching where they are ranked 3 with an ERA of 3.69 allowing opponents a batting average of .260 and an OBP of .320. St. Louis will send Joel Pineiro to the hill with his 5-4 home record and ERA of 2.41 over his last three outings he has been money going 3-0 with an ERA of 2.95. Pineiro has been solid in the second half of the season, over the last three years he is 11-2 (+10.4) during the month of August and 9-0 (+9.2) during the second half of the season this year. With St. Louis playing at home and with a purpose we will back them here only having to lay short chalk is a bonus, so back the host as they get a Game Two victory on Wednesday night at Busch Stadium.
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Graded Selection: 2* St. Louis Cardinals 3 Houston Astros 2

Marc Lawrence
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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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The Rays battle the Blue Jays in Game Two of this three-game series north of the border tonight when they send Scott Kazmir up against Marc Rzepczynski in Toronto. Kazmir enters tonight's fray with three wins in his last three team starts against the Jays. He's also 3-1 his last 4 team starts in this park. With Rzepczynski winless in his two team starts against Tamp[a this season and Toronto riding a 4-game losing streak on Wednesdays, look for Kazmir to improve to 11-2 in his last 13 August team starts here this evening.

Ross Benjamin
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Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Over 9½
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The Cleveland starter Huff hasn’t seen any of his last 6 starts stay under the total. In those 6 starts Huff has posted a lofty 7.15 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. In 10 starts on the road Huff has posted a terrible 6.87 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. The Kansas City starter Luke Hochevar has seen 4 of his last 5 starts go over the total while posting a sizeable 7.45 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in the process. Going into the action on Tuesday night 6 of the last 7 meetings between these 2 clubs has gone over the total. The Royals have gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 at home and 17 of the last 22 at home versus a team with a less than .500 winning percentage. Cleveland has seen just 16 of its last 55 road games go under the total. Play on this game to go over the total as my free selection of the day.

Rob Vinciletti
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Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Tonight the Redsox fit a huge 19-2 Power system.What we want to do is play on certain home favorites with a 9.5 or higher total off a home favored win at -200 or higher and scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits.If our opponent is off a road dog loss at +200 or higher and had 4 or less runs on 5+ hits with no more than 1 error,our Home team is 19-2 winning by an average 6-3 score.In the pitching matchup we have G.Floyd going tonight for the Whitesox.Floyd has never been a good road pitcher as evidence by his 5-8 5.38 road stats this year.Boston has T.Wakefied making his first start since early July.In his home starts the Redsox are 8-1 this year.Boston is 16-6 at home this year if the total gets to 10 to 10.5,while the Whitesox are 1-7 on the road in that same total range.The Redsox are scoring over 8 rpg. on better than .300 hitting over the past 7 games.Tney are 7-2 at home vs the Whitesox.In the 19-2 system the Redsox themselves are 6-1 when it applies to them.The only thing that precludes this game from late phone consideration is the long absence of Wakefield.

JIM FEIST

TAMPA BAY RAYS / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
TAKE OVER

A pair of strong offensive teams meet, as Toronto is 12th in baseball in runs scored, the Rays are 5th. This is a great hitter's park, too, in Toronto. Tampa Bay lefty Scott Kazmir (8-7, 6.17 ERA) has struggled all season, particularly with control, walking 49 in 105 innings. He has an ERA over 7 against Toronto this season. Toronto starter Marc Rzepczynski also has control trouble, walking 23 in 49 innings. Play the Rays/Jays Over the total.
More picks from Jim Feist

DAVE COKIN

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Take SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

The Giants are in tough shape following that disastrous extra inning defeat at Colorado on Monday. But they showed some real grit by holding on to defeat the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, and they aren't about to toss in the towel just yet. I like SF's chances here with lefty Jonathan Sanchez throwing, as he's usually effective at home. Even though the Giants are notoriously impatient hitters who hate to take a walk, they may get some help tonight from Doug Davis. The D-Backs southpaw has had control issues recently. I'll go with the Giants tonight.

JM's MLB v3 System

Phillies [A] ML
Cubs [A] ML

Drew Gordon

Chi. White Sox at BOSTON -145

Now on a 46-35 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Reds over the Brewers 8-6 Tuesday night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. White Sox/Boston match up.
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Some bettors are calling for the bounce back here by the Pale Hose, but not so fast. Not only have the White Sox struggled at Fenway, going 1-7 in their L8 meetings there, but Boston has owned them in general, now winning 13 of their L16 match ups! It won't get any easier tonight, as they face Tim Wakefield in this one.

I can understand why someone would be reticent to back a pitcher coming straight off the DL, like Wakefield is, but a veteran knuckler like Wakefield should have little trouble getting back to form. His 11-3 record and 4.31 ERA are no accident, and I expect Wakefield to give the Red Sox rotation the boost it so desperately needs, starting with tonight.
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White Sox counter with Gavin Floyd, who comes into this contest off a shaky start against the Orioles, where he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits over 7 1/3 innings. Clearly, Floyd prefers to pitch at the Cell, as his ERA more than 2 1/2 runs on the road (2.60 at home vs 5.38 away). Although he's 2-0 against the Red Sox in his career, his ugly 5.74 ERA is nothing to write home about. Point being, Floyd can be mighty inconsistent on the highway, and I'm just not buying what he's selling in this one.

Finally, these two offenses are in different places right now, as the Red Sox are batting .299 over their L10 games, as compared to just .252 for the White Sox. Not only that, but its no secret Boston loves hitting righties at Fenway, averaging a hearty 6.0 runs per game in that spot, batting .287 in the process! In the end, look for Wakefield to bring some stability to this Red Sox staff, as he delivers Wednesday night at Fenway.
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Take Boston behind Wakefield over the Chicago White Sox and Floyd in this MLB match up.

2♦ BOSTON

Dominic Fazzini

L.A. Dodgers -135 at COLORADO
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The Rockies once trailed the Dodgers by 15 1/2 games, but now find themselves two games back in the NL West race after their 5-4, 10-inning win over Los Angeles on Tuesday night.

The pressure is on the Dodgers, who have lost 11 of 19, but they've got the right guy pitching tonight in Randy Wolf.

Wolf (8-6, 3.34 ERA) has won his last three starts, posting a 1.99 ERA in that stretch. The left-hander allowed one run and one hit in seven innings Friday in a 2-1 victory over the Cubs. He hit a two-run double in the game, and has five RBIs in his last two outings.
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Wolf is 4-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 11 career starts against Colorado.

Rockies right-hander Josh Fogg (0-1, 2.25) is getting today's start in place of Aaron Cook, who has a shoulder injury. Fogg hasn't started a game since Sept. 4, when he gave up five runs and four hits in three innings against Pittsburgh while pitching for Cincinnati.

Fogg is 3-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Los Angeles. Since he hasn't started all season, I don't expect him to go too deep in tonight's game.
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With Wolf on the mound tonight, I don't see Colorado gaining a sweep of the Dodgers, especially with Los Angeles really needing a victory. Take the Dodgers in this one.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS

Bobby Maxwell

Oakland at SEATTLE -120
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Scored with my FREE winner on Tuesday as the Giants held on to beat the D'Backs in San Francisco. Tonight, I've got another one for you as I go with the Mariners at home to get the best of the A's.

The Mariners have just dominated Oakland when these two have gotten together lately, it's hard to go against Seattle in this one. Play Seattle left-hander Lucas French (3-3, 3.83 ERA) as the Mariners have won 11 of the last 14 meetings with the A's, including 8-1 at home in Seattle.

Seattle took Tuesday's game, 4-2, and the Mariiners have only allowed three runs in the first two games of the series. French has a 2.42 ERA at home and last time we saw him in front of the home fans was Aug. 15 when he allowed four runs, but none earned in the 5-2 loss to the Yankees.
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This is just his fifth start for the Mariners after being acquired from Detroit and he goes up against young Oakland lefty Gio Gonzalez (4-4, 5.78) who has a 4.32 ERA in his last three starts. Gonzalez has gotten shelled in his last two, allowing nine runs in losses to the White Sox and Tigers.
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The Mariners usually dominate when they are the chalk, going 28-11 in their last 28 as favorites. Meanwhile the A's are just 16-41 on the road against a winning team. Play Seattle in this one.

2♦ SEATTLE

Sam Martin
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Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
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Cole Hamels will take the ball for the Phillies, who had a ninth-inning rally last night against these Pirates only to blow it in the bottom of the ninth. Hamels will get the Phillies back on track against a Pittsburgh team that is only scoring 3.6 runs per games against southpaws, and improve Philadelphia’s 18-7 mark against NL Central opponents.
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Play on: Philadelphia

JR TIPS
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Dodgers at Rockies
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are now battling to hold onto their lead in the NL as they look to continue their season-long success against the second-place Rockies tonight at Coors Field.Los Angeles (74-51) faces the wild-card leading Rockies (71-54) who won against San Francisco Monday night with a walk-off grand slam to deliver a 6-4 victory.The Rockies' seventh win in eight games moved them four games ahead of the Giants in the division.Los Angeles has won 10 of the clubs' 12 meetings, including five of six in Denver and the Dodgers have averaged 6.6 runs and batted .306 in the series.Los Angeles won three straight over the Chicago Cubs before dropping the series finale 3-1 on Sunday. The Dodgers will try to snap a six-game losing streak with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96 ERA) on the mound.The 21-year-old left-hander gave up two runs and five hits in 3 2/3 innings in the Dodgers' 3-2 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. He walked four in that game and has issued 15 in 19 innings over four August starts.Kershaw gave up a career-high nine runs in 4 2/3 innings to lose his first start against Colorado this season April 26th although he is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts against the Rockies since then. Colorado starts Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54), who is 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three career games against the Dodgers and Hammel delivered another strong outing Thursday, allowing one run and three hits in seven innings to beat Washington 4-1, his third win in four starts.This is a big series for both teams in the division and these starting have been solid giving up lees than 3 runs to today"s opponent in their last 2 outings. The Dodgers number 3-6 hitters combined to go 0 for 12 with four strikeouts as the Dodgers finished with three hits in their last outing and the Rockies needed a grandslam in the 14th inning to get the win. This is a good pitching matchup that get keep runs at a minimun.
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TAKE UNDER 9