Scott Rickenbach
Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Under 7.5 Belmont
Yesterday’s 1-0 pitchers duel marked the sixth time in their last eight games that the Cardinals have stayed under the total. The Cards have held their opponents to just two runs or less in six of their last eight games but their own lineup has been held to only three runs or less in five of their last eight games. As for the Astros, they’ve stayed under the total in seven of their last nine games. Houston has been held to two runs or less in six of their last eleven games. The Astros have held their opponent to three runs or less in five of their last six games! In the Cardinals last eight games, they’ve reached double digits in hits just twice. In the other six games they averaged just five hits per game! The Astros have reached double digits in hits just three times in their last eleven games. In the other eight games, Houston averaged just 5.6 hits per game.
As you can see from the above, neither one of these clubs is hitting the ball very well right now. Additionally, these NL Central battles between the Astros and Cards have stayed under the total in 8 of their 10 match-ups this season. The games are also a stellar 26-13 to the under the last three seasons. Tonight’s pitching match-up should help add to this under trend! In Roy Oswalt’s last ten starts one was cut short by injury. In the other nine outings he produced seven quality starts. Also, he’s coming off of a very strong 7-inning shutout against the Diamondbacks where he allowed just three hits. As for Joel Pineiro of the Cardinals, he has a solid 2.97 ERA in five career starts against the Astros. Also, he’s got a sparkling 2.41 ERA at home this season and he’s held batters to a stellar .246 BAA at Busch Stadium. Look for him to come up with his 13th quality start in his last 14 outings tonight! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in St Louis on Wednesday night.
LARRY NESS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
Once upon a time in 2009, the Rockies trailed the Dodgers by 15 1/2 games. However, last night's 5-4 Colorado win (10 innings) drew the Rockies to within two games of Los Angeles in the NL West. The 72-54 Rockies are now 18 games over .500 for the first time in club history. While the Rockies are averaging 6.4 runs over their last 16 games (12-4 record), the Dodgers have lost 11 of their 19, scoring three runs or less 11 times. It's tough to step in front of Colorado right now but I love the way LA's Randy Wolf is pitching and I have no faith at all in Josh Fogg, who makes his first start of 2009 tonight for Colorado. While Wolf is just 8-6 on the year, that hardly tells the whole story. He's allowed three ERs or less in 19 of his 27 starts, including NINE of his last 11 (3.39 ERA on the season). Wolf has won his last three outings, allowing just nine hits and five ERs over 22.2 innings (1.99). As for Fogg, he pitched for the Rockies in 2007, the year the team surprised all by making the World Series. He spent last year in Cincinnati, going 2-7 with a dreadful 7.58 ERA in 22 appearances (14 starts). He opened the 2009 season in Colorado's minor league system but it should be noted that since being recalled on May 26, he's done an excellent job in long relief. He's allowed just 26 hits in 40 innings, while posting a 2.25 ERA. That being said, I don't trust him at all in the role of a starter (he's replacing Aaron Cook) and I'll back the red-hot Wolf.
Doc's Sports
Phillies (RL) @ Pirates (RL)
PICK: Pirates (RL)
The Pirates new look lineup has now won six of its last seven, scoring 41 runs in those games. Lefty Paul Maholm dominated the Phils last year. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels isn't dominating anyone this year. The Phillies have lost his last four starts.
Nelly
San Diego at Atlanta
Play Under 8.5
Kenshin Kawakami has not been the great success the Braves had hoped but he certainly has been a solid starter and he has stayed healthy enough to make 23 starts this season. He has just six wins but his ERA is 3.97. In seven of his last eight starts he has allowed three or fewer runs with the ‘under’ going 7-1 in those starts. Kawakami owns a 1.77 ERA over his last three starts and after some early season struggles he seems to be figuring out how to pitch in the States. Kawakami has excelled at home with a 3.38 ERA and he will face a light-hitting Padres team that is batting .210 in the last ten games. The Braves are batting just .254 in that span and Turner Field has been a strong ‘Under’ park, going 35-22-6 for the year. San Diego starter Tim Stauffer is just 1-6 but he has not pitched that poorly, featuring a 3.95 ERA for the season and allowing four or fewer runs in each of his eight starts this season. San Diego has failed to top four runs in eleven consecutive games against the Braves and the ‘Under’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine Atlanta home games. GO LOW!
Michael Cannon
Philadelphia at PITTSBURGH +160
Take the Pirates as the big home dog over the Phillies.
Hey, with the way Brad Lidge is going for Philadelphia it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Buccos take another game tonight.
Lidge blew his major league-leading ninth save last night as Pittsburgh rookie Andrew McCutchen hit a two-run, walk-off homerun to give the Bucs a 6-4 win.
Cole Hamels will get the start for Philly and he’s having a similar season to Lidge…disappointing. The left-hander is just 7-8 with a 4.78 ERA on the year and is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts this month.
The Bucs have won six of seven and have scored 41 runs during that span. They will start Paul Maholm, who is coming off his first win in seven weeks.
The Pirates’ left-hander allowed just one run and eight hits in 7 2-3 innings of a 3-1 win over the Brewers last Wednesday. Maholm, who will be facing the Phillies for the first time this year, went 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts against them last year.
Take the Pirates for the win as the big home dog.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Jeff Benton
NY Mets at FLORIDA
Scored yet another free-play winner Tuesday, as the Rockies pulled out the win over the Dodgers. I’m now on freebie runs of 31-18 overall and 5-2 over the past seven days. For Wednesday, I’m going to back the Marlins on the run-line over the Mets.
Not much needs to be said here. Florida is in the thick of the N.L. wild-card race and has its ace on the mound tonight in Josh Johnson. On the other hand, the Mets are a MASH unit, and with every single star player on the DL (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Santana), they can’t get to October fast enough to end this dreadful season.
New York comes into this game having lost four in a row and six of its last seven. And while the Marlins aren’t exactly piling up the wins (3-5 last eight games), they are 10-4 in South Beach over the past month, and with Johnson on the hill tonight, that’s almost a lock to go to 11-4. The right-hander is 12-3 with a 2.99 ERA, and even more impressive, he’s 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA at home. He’s pitched 12 times in Miami this year, and Florida has walked away victorious in 10 of those games.
Then there’s this: Johnson has a 2.46 ERA in three starts against New York this year, and Florida won all three. In fact, the Marlins are 7-1 all-time when Johnson faces the Mets, and he’s 6-0 with a 2.05 ERA in those eight starts. By comparison, the Mets are 1-7 in starter Mike Pelfrey’s last eight starts against Florida. (And Pelfrey has pretty much been a disaster away from home this year, posting a 5.93 ERA.)
Bottom line: The Marlins are monster favorites in this contest for a reason. But since we never lay that kind of chalk, we’ll make the smart value move and lay the 1½ runs to bring this down to a virtual pick-em price.
3♦ Florida -1.5
Karl Garrett
Texas at NY YANKEES
Free play winner from the G-Man last night as Tampa Bay-Toronto sail OVER the total.
I like the OVER tonight between Texas and New York, as the teams combined for 19-runs last night, and as well as Derek Holland has been pitching of late, the Yankees did get to him for 5 runs in 5 innings back at the end of May at Arlington.
Andy Pettitte allowed 5 runs in his last start at Boston, and his home ERA is still a bloated 4.83 for the season.
Texas is on a 5-2-1 OVER run their last 8 games, while the Yankees have played HIGH in their last 4, and 6 of their last 8 games overall.
In 4 series meetings in the Bronx, 3 of them have eclipsed the posted price.
More of the same tonight, as the Rangers and Yankees climb OVER the total.
1♦ OVER