Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, August, 28

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Indians send staff ace Justin Masterson to the mound against journeyman Paul Maholm Wednesday night in Atlanta, the Tribe will do so knowing Masterson is 7-2 against left-handers and 2-0 versus NL Central foes in his team starts this season. With Maholm 0-4 with a 9.38 ERA his last four team starts, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -168

Detroit does not have a lot of problems scoring runs. The Tigers have scored six runs per game with a .338 batting average over their past seven games. They face an Oakland team that is batting .249 and scoring 4.1 runs per game over their past seven games. The Tigers will also have a big advantage at the starting pitcher matchup when Daniel Straily and Doug Fister face off.

Fister has been lethal at home for the Tigers, posting a 7-3 record in 12 starts. He has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.210 WHIP in those games. Detroit is 8-4 as a team in those 12 games. Oakland has not been as successful when Straily is on the mound. In his 12 road starts, Straily is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He is trending in the wrong direction, posting a 5.51 ERA and 0-1 record in his last three starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals -1½ -107

Washington fits a 13-1 system with a perfect subset that plays on home favorites of 140 or more with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a 1 run home favored win and scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and had 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with 1 or less errors. The Nationals are 7-2 as a home favorite in this range Miami is 2-8 as a road dog in this range and 5-14 on Wednesday. Washington has scored of late as they are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. Strasburg goes for Washington and he has a 1.58 home era and has already shut down Miami here to the tune of 7 innings and no runs. Alvarez for Miami has an elevated 6.50 era in his last 3 starts.

Doug Upstone

Cleveland Indians vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Cleveland Indians

Justin Masterson has gone 4-2 with a 2.85 ERA in his last eight starts. He faces Paul Maholm, who is pretty good at home and atrocious on the road so far this season. The Indians lost last night despite out-hitting the Braves 6-3. Look for Cleveland to capitalize on this pitching advantage and get the victory Wednesday night in Atlanta.

Art Aronson

Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8

Right hander Homer Bailey (8-10, 3.71 ERA) takes the hill for the visiting Reds at Busch Stadium this Wednesday. Bailey, as you remember has two no hitters on his resume and is coming off a solid six inning performance where he gave up three runs on six hits. Bailey has now put together two solid starts as he through 8 innings of one run ball in a 9-1 Reds win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals will send their best pitcher to the mound in Adam Wainwright (15-7, 2.58 ERA) to oppose Bailey. The star right-hander is coming of a vintage performance in which he pitched a complete game one run masterpiece over the NL East leading Atlanta Braves. Wainwright is even tougher at Busch Stadium where he boasts a 2.06 ERA and a microscopic 0.89 WHIP. The last three starts for Wainwright has seen the “under” number fall. Don’t be surprised if there are little to no runs scored here in a game that boasts two of the best pitchers in the National League who will no doubt take to challenge each other to keep runs off the board in this game. Strongly consider taking the “under” in this situation.

Jim Feist

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: San Diego Padres

The Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and face southpaw Wade Miley, a guy they have smoked this year: He is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts against the Padres this season. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. the National League West. The Padres are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings and the Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Miley's last six starts against the Padres, so grab the live dog.

Bruce Marshall

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

The Pirates seem serious about making noise in the postseason, with the Tuesday additions of Marlon Byrd and John Buck from the Mets a clear signal that GM Neal Huntington means business. But the Bucs are also wobbling a bit as they have surrendered the top spot in the NL Central to St. Louis, and even though Wednesday starter Charlie Morton has fared well in recent starts, he's is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA in his career against the Brewers. As for Milwaukee, it is playing the role of spoiler fairly effectively, winning 6 of 11 in a current stretch vs. the three top NL Central contenders, including last night's 7-6 win over the Pirates. Ex-Buc Tom Gorzelanny, while a hit shaky in recent outings, is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in nine games vs. his former employer.

Will Rogers

NY Yankees vs. Toronto
Pick: NY Yankees

I've gone with the Yankees each of the last two games, losing Monday but winning last night. Despite losing Robinson Cano to injury, I still like them to take the series this evening behind Hiroki Kuroda. As I've gone over throughout the week, the Yankees have really had the Blue Jays number this year.

Here are my keys to the game.

1. Head to Head Domination - The Yankees are now 13-2 this season vs. Toronto. This includes a sweep last week in the Bronx. Over the last three seasons, they are now 35-16 vs. the Jays.

2. Kuroda - The last two starts, also on the division road (at Tampa Bay and Boston), have admittedly not gone well. But Kuroda still has a 2.71 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 26 starts this season. He has faced Toronto three times this season and all three times the Yankees have won. The last time saw Kuroda saw toss eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball.

3. X-Factor - Toronto's offense is simply not getting it done right now. They have scored a total of just 29 runs the last 10 games, a stretch that has seen them lose eight times.

Bryan Power

Philadelphia vs. NY Mets
Pick: Philadelphia

These teams have split the last two days w/ the Mets winning 5-0 yesterday. The Phillies have been hotter though, winning 7 of 10 since losing the first two games under manager Ryne Sandberg. The Mets are still dealing with the loss of Matt Harvey for the season and trading away their RBI leader. Take Philly here.....

The irony of last night's Mets victory was that it was "Marlon Byrd T-shirt Night." Interestingly, the team traded Byrd, their RBI leader, away earlier in the day along w/ John Buck to Pittsburgh. Jonathan Niese carried the Mets, pitching a complete game and delivering three RBI's (yes, you read that last part right). But he can't pitch every day. Tonight, it will be Daisuke Matsuzaka, whose first start saw him allow five runs in five innings.

Cole Hamels will pitch for Philadelphia. While he is 5-13 for the season, the team has won each of his last three starts, all of them quality. Two of the wins were against division leaders Atlanta and the Dodgers. Last time out, he allowed three runs in seven innings at home vs. Arizona. Hamels' ERA in 11 division starts this season is 3.11. The Phillies have won 16 of their last 26 games at Citi Field.

Nick Parsons

Baltimore vs. Boston
Pick: Over

I am a "situational" handicapper by heart. When it comes to baseball, starting pitching is also one of the main factors I'll take into consideration.

Bud Norris (9-10, 4.22 ERA)

Norris was shelled for seven runs off nine hits with three walks over just 4 2/3's innings of work in a fortunate no-decision vs. the A's on Friday.

Norris has now given up a ghastly 11 earned runs over his last 10 1/3's frames of work. Note that he's already had difficulties vs. the Red Sox as well this year, giving up five runs over six innings back on April 28th as a member of the Astros.

Norris owns a poor 3-6, 5.33 ERA road record.

John Lackey (8-11, 3.17 ERA)

Lackey gave up two runs off three hits with no walks while striking out six over eight innings in a 2-0 setback to the Dodgers on Friday.

The Red Sox veteran has for the most part been pretty sharp this season, but he's struggled in two starts vs. the Orioles in 2013, going 1-1 with a pedestrian 4.73 ERA.

Note that Lackey is just 3-8 with a 3.33 ERA in all "night games" this year.

The bottom line: Two explosive lineups vs. a confirmed "gas can" in Norris and an inconsistent Lackey = runs scored in bunches. Consider a second look at the "over" in this one.

Ray Monohan

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

I was surprised when I looked at the board this morning and saw the Rockies as home underdogs. It means that Vegas isn’t totally asleep on the eve of another football season but at the same time I think all the value is on the Colorado side in this matchup of Madison Bumgarner and Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin splits show he pitches better on the road but wins more at home where he has a 7-3 record. On a neutral field Bumgarner is the better pitcher but he has yet to master Coors Field with an ERA more than a run higher than his career. This falls into a home division dog scenario now too which is a proven moneymaker.

JR O'Donnell

Pirates / BrewersOver 7.5

These Pirates to the Over tonight vs the Mil Brewers @ PNC Park.... Charlie Morton goes for the Pirates tonight .... 5-3 with a 3+ ERA and this 6'5 righty is is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA against the Brew Crew. These Pirates are usually a rock solid Under club.... New acquired left fielder M Byrd 21 dingers and 71 RBI's and Buck from the Mets will put a little Pop in the Offence tonight.... Brewers on a solid 7-1 Over run..... Power Rated @ 9 runs flat.... These Brewers can score!!!

Steve Janus

Baltimore Orioles +158

Baltimore is simply showing too much value here. Boston embarrassed the Orioles 13-2 in the series opener last night, which is likely why we see an inflated line here. Baltimore is a dominant 11-2 against the money line revenging a road blowout loss of 6 or more runs over the last 2 seasons and 19-9 after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Boston is definitely swinging a hot bat, but are just 4-12 in their last 16 home games after back-to-back games with 3 or more home runs. Look for the Red Sox hitters to be a over-aggressive against Bud Norris.

Stephen Nover

Philadelphia Phillies -1.54

It's taken nearly the entire season, but this is the time to finally back lefty Cole Hamels.

The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They have won the past six times they've been chalk. The Mets are 0-7 in their last seven home games versus a southpaw.

Hamels is pitching well now after a horrendous start compiling a 2.00 ERA in his last six starts. Hamels has yielded just six walks during this span while pitching at least seven innings in each of his outings. He's facing a decimated Mets lineup that featured three rookies and seldom-used Andrew Brown last night.

The Mets just traded veteran Marlon Byrd and John Buck. They also are without their best hitter, David Wright. He's on the DL with a hamstring injury. Those hitters - all right-handed - accounted for 46 percent of the Mets' home runs this season.

The Mets' morale could be at its lowest point with the horrible news that Matt Harvey has a tear in his elbow and may not pitch again until 2014.

The Mets still have some good young starting pitchers - but today's starter, Daisuke Matsuzaka, - is not one of them. It's a sad testimony to the high number of Mets' mound injuries that Matsuzaka has even been resurrected. It's been more than a year since he last won in the big leagues.

Matsuzaka is a shot pitcher. Injuries and a long career have greatly reduced his velocity. He's been toiling in the Indians farm system until pitching this past Friday against the Tigers. That didn't go well for him. The Tigers scored five runs off him in five innings.

This matchup isn't likely to go well either for Matsuzaka.