Bryan Leonard
Houston / Chicago Under 7½
Two very talented starters will square off in the Windy City when Jarred Cosart takes on Chris Sale. Cosart has thrown quality starts in six of his seven starts this season, with two runs allowed on seven hits over five innings against Boston serving as Cosart's lone non-quality start. The White Sox entered play on Tuesday averaging just 3.78 runs per game. Cosart should be able to have success with the White Sox in his first career start against them and will be pitching on a couple extra days of rest, which should benefit the youngster.
Chris Sale has put up video game numbers against the Astros in his two career starts against them, throwing 16 innings and allowing two unearned runs with a 21/1 K/BB ratio. The Astros strike out in nearly 26 percent of their at bats, so Sale should rack up the K's in this start. Sale has a 4.89 K/BB ratio this season, so he makes the opposition earn every baserunner and the Astros are not one of the game's better offenses.
Bill Biles
Pittsburgh Pirates -148
The Pirates lineup just got a whole lot better. They have traded for Marlon Byrd and John Buck. Charlie Morton the pitcher for the pirates tonight has been looking playoff-ready, going 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last four outings. Look for the Pirates to get another win in hopes for their first playoff berth in a long time.
John Ryan
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Miami Marlins
The simulator shows a meaningful probability that Miami will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-21 mark for 56% winners, BUT has made a whopping 40 units/unit wagered by averaging a +225 DOG play. This system under scores my strong belief that a sports gambler MUST be able to identify DOGS when they have a strong chance at posting an upset winner. To risk over 2:1 odds with Strasburg and a very anemic offense is never a good idea. Too may amateurs think that any MLB money line over 225 is a sure bet to win. The mistake is simple that if you chose to play these big favorites, then you have to hit 67% winners with them just to break even. What my SIM does is to identify dogs that have at least a 55% chance of winning and with a correlated DOG line. More than 80% of my plays this year and for the last 18 seasons have been on dogs and it has been the hallmark tag of my overall success. Take the Marlins.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -108
The Cleveland Indians (71-60) trail Oakland by just three games for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Atlanta Braves (79-52) are going to win the NL East as they lead the division by 13 games, so these games right now aren't as important to them.
With the motivational angle and the edge they have on the mound tonight, I'll side with the Indians at a great price Wednesday. Justin Masterson is 14-9 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.201 WHIP in 27 starts this year.
He'll be up against Paul Maholm, who is 9-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.399 WHIP in 21 starts. Maholm has really been shaky of late, going 0-3 with a 10.66 ERA and 2.291 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 29 base runners over 12 2/3 innings.
The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Cleveland is 8-1 in Masterson's last 9 starts as a road favorite. Atlanta is 0-4 in Maholm's last 4 starts overall. The Braves are 1-6 in Maholm's last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the Indians Wednesday.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -110
The Indians have been incredibly resilient of late. In fact, they are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. It has also been wise to take notice when they are being favored on the road as they are 36-16 in their last 52 as road chalk. Scheduled starter Masterson is having a quality season. The Indians are 10-2 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-1 in his last 9 starts as a road favorite. The Indians are also 4-0 in his last 4 interleague starts, and he has a 1.38 ERA in a pair of interleague outings this season. The Braves are 0-4 in Maholm's last 4 starts, a stretch where he's given up 21 runs in 18 2-3 innings. He also has a 9.00 ERA in 4 interleague starts this season. Take Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +156 over TAMPA BAY
We’ve said it over and over again in every sport that these “spoilers” are extremely dangerous. These teams that are playing out the string have nothing to lose. Wins and losses to these spoilers mean nothing, which allows them to play aggressively, not worry about mistakes and just go out there and try and make life miserable for the contenders. Every professional athlete will agree that the next best thing to being in contention is to defeat teams fighting for a playoff spot down the stretch. The Angels came in here last night and took the opener 6-5 and they have a much more favorable pitching matchup here. Chris Archer comes in with a 7-5 record and a nifty 2.93 after 16 starts. He’s also coming off a seven inning, four-hit gem against the Yankees, which has increased his stock even more. Archer flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, a lot of folks are going to feel comfortable backing him but we say otherwise. Keep in mind that Archer has been the beneficiary of this trifecta help in July and his last two August starts; 16% hit rate, 91% strand rate%, 2% hr/f. His base skills are league average with 32 walks and 66 K’s in 95 innings, a 45% groundball rate and just nine quality starts in 16 attempts. Archer is serviceable, no doubt but we can bank on inconsistency down the stretch and this is the perfect spot for that to occur.
Garrett Richards is back in the Angels' rotation after a four-month hiatus and has posted a 2.55 ERA in five starts since being re-inserted. He's flamed out as a starter twice in the past already so it’s hard to put much faith in such a small sample size but his skills tell us to keep riding him. Richards has made some key improvements this season. He struggled with control in 2012, which led to some disastrous starts (22%/22% quality start/disaster start). In eight total starts this year, with improved command: 90% quality start/10% disaster start. A groundball pitcher throughout his minor league career, Richards' groundball rate has spiked to extreme levels this season (65%), a sign that he's doing nice a job at keeping his heater down. Richards’ fastball has been consistently in the 95-96 MPH range. Garrett Richards is a pitcher that has paid his dues. He has some promising seeds and according to xERA, some nice room for growth. This combination of the Angels and Richards is very undervalued and absolutely worth a bet.
DETROIT -1½ +121 over Oakland
Oakland belted out 14 runs over the past two days at this park and most of the damage was done against Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez. The A’s continue to defy logic with an average pitching staff and a below average offense, yet they continue to win games at the same rate as some of the best teams in baseball. You may have also noticed that we didn’t spot the 1½-runs the past two days with the Tigers because both Verlander and Sanchez have not been in great form. Enter Doug Fister. Pitching in the shadows of the aforementioned duo and Max Scherzer, this steady right-hander gathers wins, not headlines. While he’s not contending for a Cy Young award like Scherzer, Fister has done yeoman’s work, contributing an 11-6 record and 3.54 ERA. It’s not hard to see why Fister is thriving either. He has great control, as usual. While he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, his command is basically unchanged the past three years. Fister’s groundball % has steadily increased over the past four years and it’s now at an elite 57% this season. While his fastball (average 88.5 mph) is nothing special, it works for him—he’s been at this level for years. A 69/15% dominant start/disaster start split is another measure of his success this year. Detroit has won seven of Fister’s last eight starts. In four of those eight games, Fister has allowed one earned run or fewer and has a great chance to do something similar here.
Dan Straily was rocked in his last start (3.1 IP, 6 ER) in Baltimore on August 23 and he faces a tougher test here against a Tigers squad in a foul mood. Straily now barely made it to the fifth inning in five of his past six outings and overall, the A’s have dropped six of his past seven starts. Over that seven game span, Straily posted a 5.04 ERA and 5.30 xERA and there are more disasters forthcoming. Straily’s control is eroding. He’s walked 14 batters over his past 25 innings and he also has a fly-ball bias profile of 36%/47% groundball/fly-ball. Straily’s WHIP over his past five starts is at 1.68. Let us also remind you that Straily made the jump last year as a rookie from Double-AA to the big leagues in August. After surviving his fly-ball profile in the minors, Straily’s first seven MLB starts had its ups and downs with two disasters. The league knew little about him then but they have caught up to him now and he’s a pitcher in trouble. Straily’s confidence is shot and these Tigers know a little about going in for the kill on a wounded prey.
Kansas City -114 over MINNESOTA
The Royals came in here last night and took the opener 6-1. K.C. has now won six of the past seven meetings against the Twins while outscoring Minnesota 52-25 over that span. The Royals are on a current 5-0 run in Minnesota this season while outscoring the Twinkies 33-16 over that span. Expect more of the same here. Southpaw Andrew Albers may be up for the rest of the season because Minnesota is running out of valid options on the farm. Albers has made four starts since being called up August 6 and comes into this one with a shiny ERA of 3.00. We’re not buying in because Albers has been aided greatly by a low hit rate and high strand rate. Fatigue might become an issue down over the last month, as Albers averaged just under 100 IP the previous 2 seasons and is already up to 162 innings this season split between the minors and majors. He’s also been whacked in back-to-back starts against the Tigers and White Sox and will face a Royals team that is fifth in the majors against lefties with a team batting average of .264. Albers’ 11 K’s in 30 innings at this level suggest that further correction in his 3.00 ERA is coming.
Put Danny Duffy high on your radar and expect to reap the rewards this season and into next. Duffy's 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the minors this year is partly a result of being hit hard in six of his first seven outings coming off Tommy John surgery in June 2012. Duffy started the Triple-A phase of his return with 11 BB in 15.1 IP but he's improved greatly with 12 BB in his last 38 IP. Duffy then proceeded to strike out 19 batters over his final two minor league starts. In his first start this season after one relief appearance, all Duffy did was throw a six-inning, one-hitter against the Tigers. In 9.2 innings, he’s struck out 10 batters. In May of last year, we reported that Duffy’s average fastball was at a sizzling 95 MPH with movement. 14 months removed from TJS and feeling better than ever, Danny Duffy’s ceiling has reached new heights. This kid can pitch and against current Minnesota hitter’s he’s allowed just five hits in 24 AB (.208) and that was with a bad elbow. K.C. owns this team and we don’t see anything changing here.
Nelly
Los Angeles Angels + over Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer has provided a boost to the Tampa Bay rotation and while he has an excellent 2.93 ERA the advanced numbers do not look impressive. Archer owns a 4.32 xFIP, well above his ERA and he is not producing great strikeout count with just 26 in his last seven outings. He has just two quality starts in his last five outings with the Rays going 2-3 in those games. Garrett Richards has been outstanding since moving into the rotation. He has four quality starts in his six starts and another scoreless five inning outing. He has a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and his xFIP is just 3.40, well below his solid 3.95 ERA and far better than Archer's numbers. Richards has better road numbers on the year and this is a matchup where neither lineup knows the opposing pitcher well as this is just the second game of the season between these teams. The Angels have won four games in a row while Tampa Bay has lost three in a row and the Rays have had a difficult scheduling stretch, squeezing in a make-up game on Monday in Kansas City instead of the planned off day. The Angels have been the far better hitting team vs. right-handed pitching on the season and this is exceptional underdog value given that the road team has won seven in a row between these teams.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Yankees over the Blue Jays.
Had to look twice at this price to make sure I was not hallucinating, as I feel Hiroki Kuroda and his mates should be at least a -160 chalk tonight.
Kuroda has struggled his last pair of starts, but after last night's 7-1 win by New York, the Yankees have now won 13 of the last 15 games played against the Blue Jays.
The fact alone should be enough for New York to overcome the absence of Robinson Cano who is now out with a bruised hand.
Kuroda is still 11-9 and the owner of the league's 4th best ERA despite his recent struggles, and he will be up against a rookie in Todd Redmond that got hammered by the Houston Astros in his last start.
The Blue Jays have won just 3 times in their last 12 games, so no sense in backing them at this price.
Yankees make it 14 of 16 over the Jays tonight.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Brad Wilton
My comp play here on Wednesday night is the Yankees and Blue Jays to finish their series with another Under.
Last night sure looked like an Over after the Yankees plated 4 runs in the very first inning, but the game ended up Under the total, as the teams have now played 5 straight Unders this year, and have held Under the total in 7 of their last 9 meetings this year.
Hiroki Kuroda has been nicked up his last pair of trips to the mound, but there is no arguing the fact that his ERA stands at 2.71 for the season. 12 of Kuroda's 14 road starts this year have ended up playing Under the total as well.
Todd Redmond opposes and is coming off a rough start against Houston, but Redmond sports a 2.16 ERA at home over his 25 innings pitched and 2 of his last 3 starts overall have landed Under the total.
Yanks-Jays to stay Under the total.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES-TORONTO UNDER
Brett Atkins
My free winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line against the Cincinnati Reds, as the National League Central rivalry continues.
The Redbirds have taken over the division lead, and I certainly see them keeping their momentum rolling tonight.
The N.L. Central is in gridlock with the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds all jammed up in the playoff race, and the weird thing is, I personally believe St. Louis is going to start creating some distance, and it will start pulling away from the surprising Pirates.
The Cardinals come into tonight riding an 12-4 win streak, and catch the Reds, who have lost four of five after a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers last weekend weekend and two straight losses in this series at Busch Stadium.
Tonight will be trouble for Cincinnati, as the Cardinals have won 10 of the last 14 meetings. The mental edge is clearly with St. Louis. Don't worry about the pitchers who are automatically listed, just take St. Louis, as it continues to roll.
2♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Craig Davis
My free play winner for Wednesday is the Cardinals on the Run Line over the Reds.
Okay, I'm completely sold. The Reds are a great baseball team, but they simply can't beat the Cardinals.
It doesn't seem to matter which pitcher is on the mound or where they play, the Cardinals are just better and, for whatever reason, they have their number.
Mike Leake and Mat Latos couldn't quiet the St. Louis bats... so I just don't see how the heck is Homer Bailey going to be able to quiet them??
Especially against St. Louis's best pitcher (Adam Wainwright)...
Wainwright (15-7, 2.58 ERA) is tied with Jordan Zimmermann (Nationals) for the most wins in the NL and is third with 182 strikeouts.
The funny thing is... Wainwright has faced the Reds twice this year and posted literally the same exact numbers (two runs over seven innings) but earned a win and a loss.
Homer Bailey (8-10, 3.71 ERA) doesn't seem to like pitching in St. Louis, either. He's winless (0-5) with a 6.90 ERA in his lifetime vs. the Cardinals (7 career starts)... including two this season.
Take the Cardinals in a laugher at home as your free play of the day.
2♦ ST. LOUIS -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free pick is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers, and I want you listing both Martin Perez and Felix Hernandez.
This is a pitching rematch from Aug. 17, and trust me when I tell you if there is one team King Felix wants to defeat, it's the Texas Rangers.
While the Mariners' ace right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.72 ERA over his last 16 starts, he is 0-3 versus Texas this season, and 12-19 with a 3.94 ERA in his career. And he'll be motivated for it, as he's lost two straight, including a 2-0 setback to the Angels last Friday.
Sure, Perez has a 2.19 ERA in two starts against Seattle this year, but nothing lasts forever, and I'll leave you with the main thing to chew on...
All things considered - including the fact the Rangers have won six of their last eight games, and are 18-6 in August - why is Hernandez still a favorite in this game? He's supposed to get this win.
2♦ SEATTLE
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Wednesday night is on the New York Yankees laying the money in Toronto, and I want you listing ONLY Hiroki Kuroda in his meeting with the Blue Jays.
Last night the Yankees rode the hot bat of Alfonso Soriano, who belted a pair of home runs to lead the Bombers to a 7-1 victory over the Jays. Tonight I think the pinstripes will ride the right arm of Kuroda, who sports a 2.71 ERA this season.
The Japanese-import - one of the top pitchers in the American League in July - has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 12 runs (10 earned) over 11-2/3 innings in consecutive losses to Boston and Tampa Bay. With his focus switched over to the bottom of the A.L. East, I think he'll be poised to improve.
Kuroda is 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA in 38-2/3 career innings against the Blue Jays and New York has won 13 of the 15 meetings so far in 2013. Take the stripes and list Kuroda only.
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Wunderdog
New York Yankees at Toronto
Pick: Toronto +131
The New York Yankees have split a pair of games in Toronto, and the rubber game will take place tonight. The Yankees took yet another blow yesterday when their best player Robinson Cano was hit on the hand with a pitch, and will likely be missing from the lineup tonight. Hiroki Kuroda has had a big year for New York, but is off his worst start of the season his last time out. Todd Redmond has been very strong at home where he has worked 25 innings, recording 27 strikeouts, and posting a stellar 2.16 ERA. The Yankees stand at just 3-8 in Kuroda's last 11 road starts, and an overall 1-6 mark in his last seven within the division. The Yanks are just 1-7 in their last eight on the road to a total of 7 to 8.5, while Toronto is 7-2 in that same total range in their last nine. Take Toronto.
Hollywood Sports
Astros at White Sox
Prediction: Under
Chicago (55-76) evened this series at a game apiece yesterday with their 4-3 victory over the Astros -- and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total following a victory. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-2 in the White Sox's last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage under 40%. They send out Sale who is 9-12 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been particularly tough at home where he sports a 2.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .203 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .262 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Under is 7-2-1 in Chicago's last 10 home games with Sale pitching as the favorite. Sale should fare well against this Astros team that has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Houston (44-67) counters with Cosart who is 1-1 with a 1.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this year. But in his five starts on the road, Cosart enjoys a 1.36 ERA along with a 0.94 WHIP and .165 opponent's batting average as compared to his 2.25 ERA at home with an ugly 1.83 WHIP and .311 opponent's batting average. The Astros have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Cosart has a very good opportunity here for another strong effort against this White Sox team that has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.