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Seattle -105FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sometimes baseball handicpping is a no brainer thing and I like that since sometime my brain gets really challenged. Here we have 2 teams meeting in Minnesota. One has had just one homerun in their last 11 games and are flat out not scoring runs. They also have a pitcher who has been pretty iffy lately. The other team has a thrower on the mound coming off a poor start, but one that prior to that was FREAK-NASTY over the previous 9 outings with a 6-1 mark and an ERA of 1.88. This team is Seattle and the Mariners are on a 10-3 run right now and in doing so they have beat Minnesota 5 times straight. They actually have 7 straight wins verses Minnesota and perhaps they have gotten into their head. We have a HOT Seattle squad tonight and My Model says they will remain hot at 58.1% of the time. Let's play it.
SPORTS WAGERS
ampa Bay +144 over TEXAS
The Rangers are so tough at home but when we can take back a price like this on the Rays with a pitching matchup that under the surface favors the Rays, we’ll bite almost every time.
Matt Harrison's ticket to the All-Star Game was punched largely on the strength of his W-L record. He’s 15-7 with a 3.07 ERA but luck has played a major role in those numbers. Harrison’s strand rate over the past month has been 82%. On the year, it’s 79%. When you combine that with an average strikeout rate of 101 batters in 169 innings, it confirms that balls in play have been hit right at people and that is unsustainable. Harrison’s 4.08 xERA strongly suggests some regression in the final month. He’s definitely a reliable starter but he doesn't profile as an All-Star from a skills perspective.
By contrast, Alex Cobb has not been nearly as fortunate with a 65% strand rate, 15 points lower than Harrison’s. That’s a big discrepancy and when things even it over time, the numbers will show Alex Cobb to be the more skilled of the two. Cobb has an elite 58% groundball rate. His xERA over the past month was 3.17 and on the year it’s 3.49. That’s nearly 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA. Cobb also has good control with 28 walks in 102 frames. We also like that the Rangers have just 19 career AB’s against Cobb and have managed just four hits (.211) against him while the Rays got to Harrison for 14 hits and six runs in five innings the last time they saw him in April of this year.
Seattle -107 over MINNESOTA
In 51 innings, Minnesota’s Sam Deduno has walked 37 while striking out 30. He’s constantly behind in counts and when you fall behind or walk that many hitters at this level, you basically have no chance for success. Deduno has walked five or more in three of his past four starts. In the lone game where he didn’t give that many free passes, he allowed 11 hits in five frames with no strikeouts. With the Twins in last place in their division, they can afford to send out guys that they can assess for next season. Why not? But pitching for a reeling Twins’ club that has dropped 12 of 14 and with his confidence and skills at a delicate level, Deduno is a pitcher to avoid.
Jason Vargas will never be a dominant pitcher. He’s your classic soft-tossing lefty that will implode from time-to-time but he won’t walk many and he’ll usually give the M’s a decent chance to win. Vargas has 13 wins and 18 quality starts in 27 tries.
The M’s are in much better form and they’ll face an erratic thrower that we’re comfortable fading at this cheap price.
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Tampa Bay @ Washington
Play: Tampa Bay +4
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Both Tampa Bay and Washington has posted 2-1 records in the preseason and have one more tune-up before the regular season commences. Coach Mike Shanahan has already proclaimed Robert Griffin III out for this final August contest and will instead go with another rookie Kirk Cousins. Quarterback Josh Freeman will see limited action for the Buccaneers, who are expected to be the more mentally prepared squad. Typically, rookie coaches like Greg Schiano place greater value on winning preseason games, to help build the confidence of the team and to make sure what program they are selling to their players is working, thus convincing them to by in. Here is another solid reason to back the Bucs on Wednesday; home teams like the Redskins off a home win by 10 or more points, are just 3-12 ATS the past three seasons.
DAVID BANKS
Patriots / Giants Over 41
In what is being billed as a Super Bowl rematch, the New England Patriots (1-2, 0-3 ATS) and the New York Giants (1-2, 2-1 ATS) conclude their preseasons at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ Wednesday night at 7:00 ET on NFL Network. Now normally, most starters are held out of the preseason finale with the regular season coming up next week, but Giants' coach Tom Coughlin has announced that the starters will play in this game, and that surprisingly includes wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, as he sees his first preseason action after breaking his foot.
Patriots' coach Bill Belichick is always tight-lipped about his player rotations, but considering that the Patriots have looked uncharacteristically sluggish in their two games with the starters in the lineup, it would not be a total shock to see them start this game also, which would give this game more of a genuine rematch feel. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have publicly voiced their displeasure with the offense so far, so Belichick could very well give them a chance to try and find some rhythm in this game. However, that probably won't last more than one quarter as there are still some roster spots to be settled. New England did unclog its wide receiver situation Monday by cutting both Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney, but there is still a three-way battle going on for probably two running back spots, which may leave incumbent Danny Woodhead in some jeopardy. Jeffrey Demps may have the inside track on one spot because he has sparkled in his kick return duties but rookie Brandon Bolden out of Mississippi is also in the mix.
The Giants also have some questions still to be answered once the starters are out of the game, with running back and wide receiver being among them. It is unclear if the Giants plan on carrying four or five running backs, and that includes fullback Henry Hynoski, whose spot is secure. That means they have a trio of backs in D.J. Ware, Andre Brown and Da'Rel Scott competing for either one or two spots. On top of that, New York currently still has nine wide receivers on its active roster with only the top four (Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Domenik Hixon, Rueben Randle) being secure. All this could end up making this an uncharacteristically competitive preseason finale with the skill position players giving it their best from start to finish, including the third quarterback Ryan Perrilloux, who has performed well in his game action albeit always against backup defenses.
Generally speaking, underdogs have been great bets in Week 4 of preseason going 101-80-8, 55.8 percent ATS since 2000 although this would not be the first time that Belichick blew up a trend like that. He is 6-6 in Week 4, but this is the eighth straight year that the Patriots have finished up vs. the Giants, and it is New York that went 5-2 straight up the last seven years.
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Houston Astros +1.5 (-105)
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I know the Houston Astros have little to play for right now, but they are showing too good of value on the Run Line tonight to pass them up. Asking San Francisco to win by two runs is simply asking too much.
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Barry Zito is getting way too much love from oddsmakers in this one. The left-hander is 10-8 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.374 WHIP in 25 starts, including 1-0 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in his last three outings. Zito is 3-3 with a 5.09 ERA in seven career starts against Houston.
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Dallas Keuchel is not getting the love he deserves tonight for Houston. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in six home starts in 2012. He is averaging 6.6 innings/start at home, where he has clearly been at his best all season.
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San Francisco is 30-56 against the run line (-31.1 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 7-22 against the run line (-17.6 Units) vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 9-1 against the run line (+10.5 Units) in home games after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Astros on the Run Line.
MLB Predictions
Colorado Rockies +118
The Colorado Rockies look to complete a sweep of Los Angeles tonight as they've taken the first two games 10-0 and 8-4. The Rockies are 53-75 on the season and 28-39 at home, but have been playing much better baseball as of late winning 8 of their last 10. The Dodgers are 69-61 on the season and 34-32 away from home. They are just 2-6 in their last 8 games. Other then two wins at home against Miami where the Dodgers scored 19 runs combined they have scored just 12 runs in their 6 losses (2 runs per game). On the mound for Los Angeles this afternoon is Joe Blanton who is 8-12 on the year with a 5.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .275 opponents batting average. In four starts since being traded to the Dodgers he is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. Drew Pomeranz gets the nod for Colorado and he is 1-7 on the season with a 4.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average. Although he has been struggling getting deep into any ball games, Pomeranz has allowed 3 or less earned runs against in 5 of his last 6 starts (note his longest was 5.1 innings though). The Dodgers are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a favorite and 1-4 in their last 5 following a loss. The Rockies are 10-1 in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog. They are also 7-2 in their last 9 home games overall, 9-3 in their last 12 vs a right handed starter, and 8-3 in their lsat 11 games following a win. The Rockies are 5-1 in these two teams last 6 meetings. Take Colorado as underdogs for 2 units.
Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs +113
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The Cubs, who are 32-31 at home, are showing value in the underdog role with Jeff Samardzija on the hill against a Milwaukee club that is 23-39 on the road.
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Samardzija has been rock solid at Wrigley all season. He's 4-3 (8-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.28 in 11 home starts. The Cubs are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog and 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus the National League Central.
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Milwaukee's Michael Fiers is not in good form. He's 1-2 with an ERA of 9.88 over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 1-3 in his last 4 road starts, 5-18 in their last 23 road games versus a right-handed starter and 8-20 in their last 28 road games overall. Take the Cubs.
Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SF Giants -158
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The Giants have won their last 4 on the road and their last 4 with Zito on the mound, and I like them here against a pitiful Houston club that has dropped 46 of its last 54. The Astros are only 1-8 in Keuchel's last 9 starts and 0-4 in their last 4 versus San Francisco. Bet the Giants.
Jeff Alexander
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Seattle Mariners -105
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The Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 overall, 7-2 in Vargas' last 9 starts and 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with Minnesota. The Twins are 5-17 in their last 22 overall, 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter and even 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Seattle on the money line.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +122 over Baltimore
Interesting matchup sees newly acquired Joe Saunders making his Oriole debut while the White Sox have called up Dylan Axelrod to replace an injured Gavin Floyd in the rotation. On paper, it would appear that Saunders has an edge but nothing could be further from the proof.
Saunders went 6-10 with the D-Backs with a 4.22 ERA pitching half his games in a tough venue. Problem with that logic is that he wasn’t much better on the road. This is a guy with a career BAA of .275 and a career ERA of 4.17 so he’s been right on par with his career numbers. The Diamondbacks had lost seven of his past nine starts before the trade and in August, he allowed 32 hits and 19 runs in 23 innings. Camden Yards is not the best fit for him either (+11% RH HR, +22% LH HR).
Axelrod is a pitcher that has ugly surface stats (1-2, 5.63 ERA) but small sample sizes can be extremely misleading. That 5.63 ERA (38 IP) is easy to pass up, but a strong 48% groundball rate, 31 k’s in 38 frames suggests something interesting here, as do solid performances against NYY and Boston (13.2 IP, 3 ER’s). Axelrod has pitched well at AAA—2.88 ERA, 92 K’s in 97 IP. The kid has been a victim of numbers in the South Side’s rotation. He’s highly skilled and could be a nice sleeper down the stretch. He certainly offers up more value taking back a price than Saunders does spotting one.
Chuck O'Brien
As for your free pick, I want you to think of this: if I was willing to take the Miami Marlins last night at +170 and facing Stephen Strasburg, why wouldn't I take them when they're much closer to being listed as the favorite against the struggling Washington Nationals?
My free pick run is at 100-63-2 as I take a shot with the Marlins once again at Marlins Park in South Beach. Last night I wanted you listing Ricky Nolasco and Stephen Strasburg; tonight it's straight action and I don't care one way or the other if you list either Ross Detwiler or Jacob Turner.
And while I know the Marlins batted an abysmal .185 against Detwiler, limiting them to five hits and one run while striking out eight, in his lone appearance against them, the Nationals are mired in a five-game skid and don't appear to be in a good place right now having been outscored 26-6 during this losing streak.
As I told you last night, any intangible can mess with a team's rhythm, and right now the Nationals have lost their groove. And even though Miami is 7-7 against Washington this season, the Fish are 6-2 at home against their National League East-rival.
I'm playing the Marlins tonight.
1♦ MIAMI
Matt Rivers
Last night I gave you Oakland for free, as I have now hit may last 7 comp play releases.
Tonight I am going with Oakland once again over Cleveland.
No great mystery here, as the A's are charging hard towards a Wild Card spot, while the Indians are charging hard at infamy.
Oakland has now won the last six season series meetings versus Cleveland, including the last three by shutout!
The Athletics are also on an overall 10-2 run their last dozen games, while the Indians have dipped to 1-12 their last 13 games while being held to two runs or less in seven of their last nine games.
Travis Blackley comes out of the bullpen to make the start, while Corey Kluber seeks his first major league win after starting 0-2 in his first three big league starts.
Keep searching Corey, A's continue their tear as they sweep the Tribe tonight.
4♦ OAKLAND
Craig Davis
Wednesday's free play is the underdog Boston Red Sox.
I'll take my chances against CJ Wilson at this price. I have absolutely no confidence in the lefty right now, and neither should you. Shoot, I don't even think the Angels have anymore confidence left in him.
He's looking to end an 11-start winless streak, but it doesn't seem like that's on the horizon anytime soon with the way he keeps pitching. Wilson (9-9, 3.83 ERA) is in the middle of one of his worst-ever pitching stretches, posting an 0-5 record and a 6.09 ERA since late June. It continued last week in Boston where he allowed seven runs on eight hits over five innings... but the Angels did manage to win that game in extras... 14-13 (no thanks to Wilson).
He's also allowed at least six runs in four of his last five starts and can't seem to get control of his breaking pitches like he used to. The sad part for Wilson is... he's owned the Red Sox over his career, but even last week's game is proof he just doesn't have it right now.
The Angels appeared to be in a major funk until Albert Pujols gave them a spark last night by returning to the lineup, recording two hits (including a 6th inning homer) after missing nearly a week with a calf injury.
Zach Stewart (1-2, 6.00) counters for the Red Sox tonight and will make his first start for his new team. Remember, he was part of the trade that involved Kevin Youkilis going to the Chicago White Sox. From the pen, Stewart has made 18 appearances this season, recording just one start... and it wasn't a good one. But honestly, I'm not too worried about it. Wilson has been bad too, so it's a matter of getting a great price against a pitcher who has no business being favored by this much.
Free play of the day on the Boston Red Sox.
2♦ BOSTON
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Wednesday night is on the San Diego Padres, plus a decent price, as I think the Pads rebound from having their eight-game win streak snapped last night by the Atlanta Braves. And make note, I want you listing Eric Stults and Tommy Hanson in this game.
The Padres are playing some of their best baseball right now and I like my chances with a value price. Just over the last week we've seen the Friars play spoiler to several playoff-contending teams. After knocking off National League West-rival San Francisco Giants on Aug. 19, the Pads went on to sweep Pittsburgh and Arizona before splitting the last two nights against Atlanta.
San Diego pitchers went into last night's game with a 1.73 ERA in the team's previous eight games. And I like this kid Stults a lot. He comes in after tossing seven scoreless innings in his last start, against the D-backs, who were tamed to just three hits and one walk. Since emerging from the disabled list back in July, the southpaw is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA in eight games.
Hanson, meanwhile, hasn't completed at least five innings in two of his past five starts, while his sketchy command has allowed hitters to produce a .423 on-base percentage over his last six starts. He has a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts.
The Friars are on winning streaks of 7-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a home pup and 5-1 at home. The Braves come in on losing slides of 3-5 versus N.L. West teams, 1-4 as the favorite and 4-7 overall.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
My free winner on Wednesday will be the Colorado Rockies plus the money against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as I think the men in blue still have some kinks to work out with their new lineup before going on a tear. The Dodgers have now lost three in a row, and are 1-3 since their big trade with Boston. It doesn't get any better today in Denver.
Joey Blanton is on the bump for the Dodgers, and quite frankly it's been a bad marriage since he joined the team. The crafty northpaw is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in four starts, including a crucial start in his last trip to the mound, when he allowed four runs on 10 hits in 5-2/3 innings against the Giants.
And even though he is 1-0 in three career starts against the Rockies, make note he's taking on a team that has owned the Dodgers this season. The Rockies have knocked off the Dodgers in eight of their 14 matchups.
Might I add how much I believe this is such a mental game, and the loss of Matt Kemp for an undetermined amount of time is going to weigh heavy for a couple of days. Of course I think the easy solution is to have Gold Glove winner Shane Victorino move to center field, and when Kemp comes back put him in left... but what do I know.
Bottom line is, the Dodgers have been outscored 24-6 during this three-game slide and I think Colorado starter Drew Pomeranz will come into this one fired up. After taking a no-hitter into the fifth inning last Friday versus the Cubs, Pomeranz was tagged for a pair of solo home runs. Though he left his teammates with a lead after the fifth frame, the bullpen blew the game as the Rockies went on to lose, 5-3. Look for him to take advantage of this struggling lineup in this matinee.
Play the home-underdog Rockies.
2♦ COLORADO ROCKIES