JIM FEIST COMP
NEW YORK METS / ATLANTA BRAVES
TAKE: ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves have the Major's best home record and they sure are happy to be home after a tough road trip. The Braves are fifth in the league in runs/game (4.57) and sixth in batting average (.259). But expect those numbers to improve with the acquisition of Rick Ankiel. Ankiel came over from the Royals and is hitting very well with a .387 average and eight RBIs in his last eight games. Ankiel had two hits and two RBIs in his Atlanta home debut Monday. Mike Pelfrey starts today for the Mets and he's been struggling badly. While Pelfrey is 10-5 on the season, he hasn't won a game since June. And, it gets even worse than that. In his last five outings he's allowed four earned runs or more four times. The strikeouts are way down, in fact over those five outings he's allowed 13 walks against just 10 K's. The Braves will start Kris Medlen, a 24-year old from California. Medlen doesn't work a lot of innings, never going even into the seventh inning yet. He's give the Braves some solid outings both as a starter and from the pen. Medlen has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts (11 innings) and has received a no decision in both starts. We get a pretty cheap price here on the Braves. Pelfrey is getting hit hard every game out for some reason. Medlen is decent but not going to throw anything spectacular. That keeps the line fairly low on the Braves. But we still get the best home team in baseball laying under a buck-fifty here against a struggling opposing pitcher. I'm taking the Braves on Wednesday.
Marc Lawrence
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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers and Padres meet in Game Three of this four-game N. L. West Division series when Vicente Padilla meets Wade LeBlanc at Chavez Ravine Stadium in Los Angeles. Padilla enters tonight's fray 7-3 in his last 10 home team starts, issuing nine walks against 62 strikeouts in those contests. On the other side of the coin, LeBlanc enters 1-3 in his last four road team starts and is also just 1-4 in his five career team starts in this series. With Padilla owning a super-sharp 0.785 WHIP at home this season, and LeBlanc countering with a 1.557 road WHIP this campaign, look for the better arm to win out here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.
Steve Merril
Twins vs. Rays
Play: Under 8
Tampa Bay has gone 8-1 so far on their current 11-game homestand. Tonight they'll play game three of their series with Minnesota. David Price takes the mound at home where he's 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA in nine starts, six of which have gone Under the total. His last time out, he gave up two runs and seven hits in 6.3 innings pitched to the Tigers. The lefty took a tough loss in Minnesota on July 2nd after giving up two runs and four hits in eight innings of work. In that game, he walked four batters, but gave up only two runs. Michael Cuddyer (0-6), Delmon Young (1-6), Denard Span (1-5), and Jason Kubel (1-4) all struggle with the Rays ace. Minnesota has scored just 14 runs in their last four games with three of those games going Under the total. Tampa Bay's bullpen is 7-5 with an ERA below 3.40 at home. Minnesota’s Scott Baker has been improved as of late. He's won two straight games while giving up five runs over 12.3 innings pitched against Seattle and Baltimore. Baker took the win in Minnesota after he out-dueled Price. The righty gave up one run and six hits in seven innings of work. Carlos Pena (1-12), Kelly Shoppach (1-10), Matt Joyce (1-9), Ben Zobrist (1-7), BJ Upton (1-6), Willy Aybar (1-5), and Reid Brignac (0-5) all struggle with Baker. The Rays have gone Under in 9 of their last 13 games. Overall, the Rays have gone Under in 31 of their 55 home games this season. Minnesota's bullpen has an ERA near 3.10 on the road so they should be effective if Baker were to falter a bit. This game sets-up as a low-scoring pitcher’s duel so we’ll recommend a play on the Under tonight between the Twins and Rays.
Cajun Sports
LA Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: LA Angels
The Angels look to rebound after losing the opener of their three-game set versus Baltimore 6 to 3 on Tuesday night. Baltimore has not been a team to string wins together this season and the odds are against them getting another win tonight. The Orioles are 17-42 overall this season, 14-40 at home when facing a team with a winning record and 4-14 in Matusz’s last eighteen starts overall. Matusz is 3-9 his last twelve starts versus teams with a winning record, 0-5 his last five trips to the bump at home and 0-8 when he takes the mound with five days rest. LA is 35-16 their last fifty-one meetings against the Orioles, 29-14 on the road versus left-handed starters and a very solid 125-56 when facing teams with a win percentage below .400. One final key tech set tells us Santana is 5-2 his last seven trips to the hill versus the Orioles. We will recommend laying the chalk with the Angels as they get a very important victory on Wednesday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Los Angeles Angels 3 Baltimore Orioles 0
LEE KOSTROSKI
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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Johnny Cueto enters this start coming off one of his worst starts of the season. He allowed four runs and ten hits against Atlanta in a game he did not take a decision. Cueto has not taken a loss since mid-June and he had made seven consecutive dominant starts prior to that game, allowing no more than two runs in any of those games while actually allowing one or zero earned runs in six starts. For the season Cueto actually owns stronger numbers on the road as his ERA is over a full-point lower at 2.79 and he owns a 1.20 WHIP. Overall the Reds are 13-8 in his starts and he should be lined up for a strong outing Wednesday afternoon.
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The Reds are 7-1 in the last eight games with the Pirates and 20-8 in the past 28 meetings of this series. Pittsburgh is just 14-38 in the last 52 games and a once promising home field edge has disintegrated at PNC Park. Pittsburgh’s offense has been ice cold, batting only .218 in the past ten games and the Pirates are on a 6-17 run since early July. In that span of games the Pirates have topped four runs scored just six times and for the year Pittsburgh is 8-23 in the third game of a series.
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Jeff Karstens enters this game off an outstanding outing in St. Louis where he pitched seven scoreless innings. His home ERA is just 4.61 however and Pittsburgh is 3-8 in Karstens starts since he moved back to the rotation in June. Karstens has a 7.88 ERA against the Reds this season over three appearances and a 6.50 ERA in day games this season. Pittsburgh owns a bullpen ERA of 4.84 over the last ten games this figures to be another difficult match-up for the Pirates.
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In contrast the Reds own a 0.79 bullpen ERA in the last ten games, going 7-3 in that stretch while also batting .275. Cincinnati is hitting .294 against right-handed pitching in that span and the Reds have averaged nearly 5.9 runs per game in the past seven road contests, out-scoring foes 41-17. The Reds beat Pittsburgh 8-2 in Cueto’s last start in this series and his last start in Pittsburgh led to a 9-0 Reds win where he allowed just one-hit and no walks in a complete game shutout.
SPORTS WAGERS
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San Francisco +1.72 over COLORADO
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After the Rockies 12-game losing streak, including two losses to the Pirates, they finally won the series finale and subsequently swept the Cubs. Between them, the Cubs and Pirates are 83-140 and the Cubs have lost eight straight. Well, the Giants came in here last night and throttled the Rocks 10-0. They made Colorado look like a minor-league team and in fact, the Giants outhit them 19-3 and the Rockies struck out 13 times. Furthermore, the Giants are now 14-3 over its last 17 road games and what ailed them in previous years, a lack of offense, is ailing them no more. In fact, the Giants led the NL in runs scored in the month of July and the last time they faced Ubaldo Jiminez on July 3, in Colorado, they scored seven times in six innings en route to an 11-8 win. Jimenez threw seven strong innings against Pittsburgh on Thursday, however, prior to that he had five poor outings in his last six starts and needed 123 pitches to get through the Pirates. Jiminez could very well be feeling fatigued and one of the signs of fatigue is walks. He’s walked 12 and struck out 13 in his last three starts and in no way will the Giants be intimidated by him. The Giants have won four of Madison Bumgarner’s last five starts. The kid just keeps throwing quality games and gives the Giants a chance to win every time he takes the mound. He has yet to allow more than four runs in any start this season and that only occurred once, in his season debut. Since then, he’s allowed a total of 10 runs in six starts and while Jiminez has to be considered the better pitcher here, Bumgarner is in better form at the moment, the Giants overall are in much better form than Rockies and you can times that by 10 when discussing the respective bullpens. Overlay. Play: San Francisco +1.72 (Risking 2 units).
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Toronto +1.69 over NY YANKEES
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The Yanks were cruising along up until the trade deadline but a 65-35 record was not good enough for the New York Yankees. No, they had to bring in Austin Kearns, Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood. Not that they were bad moves but there’s an old cliché that says, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it and that’s precisely what the Yanks did. In a key situation on Monday night (2 on, 2 out with the score 8-5), Joe Girardi pinch-hit for Brett Gardiner with Kearns and Kearns promptly struck out. Surprise, surprise. Gardiner had been terrific all year in these situations and one can only surmise how he and the rest of the team felt when Kearns ended the threat. How about Curtis Granderson? He’s going to lose playing time also. Since the deadline, the Yanks have dropped four of five and were two-hit last night by Ricky Romero. Also consider the A-Rod distraction too. You can just sense that the whole team, aside from A-Rod, is sick of waiting for this thing to happen. They bring in new marked balls whenever he steps to the plate and that delays the game. A-Rod is in his glory knowing the whole world is watching but a look-in at the dugout shows the “get over yourself look” on the rest of the squad. The Yanks are a great team and they’ll snap out it for sure. However, they’re presently not in a good frame of mind and they’re way overpriced with Hughes on the hill. Hughes’ skills have been declining for weeks. The Yanks are just 3-3 over his lat six starts and one of those was against the Jays in which Toronto tagged him for five runs in six innings. Since June 8, Hughes ERA has steadily risen from 2.70 to the present 4.07 and a ground-ball rate of just 31% since that June 8 start is further proof that Hughes is laboring. Shaun Marcum is building a strong case for AL Comeback Player of the Year honors after missing the entire 2009 season due to September 2008 Tommy John surgery. In fact, he is currently flashing career-best skills. Marcum experienced elbow inflammation in early July, which resulted in a brief DL stint, but has impressed in his return, which includes a sparkling 19/1 K/BB in three starts spanning 17 IP. He posted a season-best ten strikeouts without a walk in Friday's dominating performance over the Tribe. Marcum has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and over that stretch he struck out 42 and walked just 10. On the year covering 125 frames, he’s walked a lousy 28 batters while striking out 102. Yeah, the Yanks are dangerous as hell and could break out at any time. However, this is still a big overlay and the Jays are absolutely feeling it right now. Play: Toronto +1.69 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -235
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The Cardinals ace starting pitcher Chris Carpenter lost his only start against the Astros earlier this season, but I expect him to pick up the win in this game. Carpenter is pitching very well for the Red Birds. In his last three starts Carpenter is 1-0 with an ERA of just 1.57. The Astros were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball when Carpenter faced them the first time this season and now they have even less pop in their lineup now that Lance Berkman has been traded to the Yankees. The Astros start J.A. Happ in this game after they picked him up from Philadelphia in the Roy Oswalt trade. Happ looked good in his first start for Houston, but the Cardinals have hit him well in the past. In two starts against St. Louis, Happ is 0-1 with an ERA of 5.11. He won't have much margin for error with Chris Carpenter on the mound for the Cardinals and I expect the St. Louis offense to provide Carpenter with enough run support to pick up the win here. The Cardinals are 23-5 in Carpenters last twenty eight home starts against a team with a losing record. Play on St. Louis.
Ross Benjamin
LA Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: LA Angels -137
The Orioles southpaw starter Brian Matusz has been absolutely horrible over his last 4-starts posting a whopping 12.46 ERA and 2.46 WHIP. Matusz is a miserable 1-9 in his home team-starts this season. The Angels starter Ervin Santana has posted a rock solid 2.73 ERA in 10-starts on the road this season. In spite of yesterday's loss the Angels are 8-3 in the last 11 versus Baltimore. Play on the LA Angels as my free selection of the night.
Gill Alexander
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ATL (-150) vs NYM
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Pelfrey has a lifetime 5.43ERA v Atl. He has a 5.05ERA on the road this season and a 9.59ERA (.446 opponents BA) in his last 6 outings overall. Opponents are hitting .296 against him this season and he has posted a 1.52WHIP (9th worst in MLB). Medlen has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road this season, posting a 3.00ERA at Turner Field. He went 6.1IP v these same Mets at home on May 18 and allowed just 2ER on 4H. However Medlen has performed this season, the Braves have rewarded him with the single best team W/L record backing up any starter in the Majors. Atlanta is 12-1 when Medlen starts. Despite beating the Braves on Tuesday, the Mets are an anemic club on offense on the road, going 6-16 in their last 22 away from home while Atlanta still sports the best home record in the big leagues at 35-14. I expect that to go to 36 tonight.
Chris Jordan
The Cubs couldn’t get it done for me last night, but I’m coming back with them as my complimentary winner in this matinee matchup with National League Central-rival Milwaukee.
I’m also listing both pitchers, as I like my chances with Ryan Dempster over Manny Parra.
While Dempster might be just 8-8 on the season, he has a respectable 3.92 ERA, and rolls into this one in an impressive 13-3 run and 2.69 ERA against the Brewers.
The Chicago right-hander generally works in the 89- to 92-mile per hour range with his fastball, and uses it effectively to set up a wicked slider with sharp bite and tilt or a splitter that produces a lot of whiffs when he on top of his pitches. And when it comes to pitching against the Brewers, as mentioned, he’s on top of his game.
Parra, meanwhile, has just one quality start - six or more innings and three or fewer earned runs - in only one of his past six outings. He’s also 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts and two relief appearances in his career against Chicago.
The Milwaukee southpaw is also 1-3 on the highway with a dismal 6.82 ERA to go along with it. In his last three starts he allowed 16 earned runs over 16 innings of work.
Chicago is my complimentary play for today.
2♦ CHICAGO
Chuck O'Brien
I’m 3-for-3 in August with comp plays after the Red Sox held on and covered the run line against Cleveland last night. Wednesday’s complimentary selection comes in early action from Yankee Stadium, as I’ll take a shot with the Blue Jays as a big road underdog to sweep the defending champions.
There is just way too much value on Toronto in this game, and for proof just look at the matchup on the mound. Toronto’s Shaun Marcum is 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 125 innings. Marcum is also 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 19-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts, and he’s 6-1 with a 2.89 ERA in day games.
New York’s Phil Hughes is 12-4 with a 4.07 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 117 1/3 innings, but in six starts since June 29, he’s given up 25 runs (24 earned) in 35 innings (6.17 ERA), and that includes a six-inning, five-run outing against Toronto on July 4. Yes, the Yankees did win that contest 7-6 and yes they’re 9-2 when Hughes pitches at home this season, but it doesn’t diminish the fact that the right-hander has had major problems at Yankee Stadium this season. He’s allowed 38 earned runs in 65 2/3 innings (5.21 ERA), and he’s served up 15 of his 16 home runs at home, including three on July 4 vs. Toronto. Of course, the Jays are far and away the best home-run hitting team in baseball.
The only reason Hughes has a 7-2 home record is because New York has supported him with an average of nearly eight runs per game. I highly doubt they’ll come close to doing that against Marcum. After all, Toronto is 7-3 in Marcum’s 10 road starts, putting up 5.2 runs per contest.
The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series to improve to 5-3 against the Yankees this season, and they’re 12-6 overall since the All-Star break (7-4 on the road). Also, their offense is humming, pounding out 61 runs in the last 10 games, and believe it or not Toronto’s bullpen (3.84 ERA overall; 3.72 ERA on the road) is actually better than New York’s (3.87 ERA overall, 4.74 ERA at home).
3♦ TORONTO BLUE JAYS
JAY MCNEIL
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Though Pittsburgh halted its five-game losing streak with last night’s 7-6 win over the Reds, I have to believe the Reds will get back on track in this early start.
I’ll list both pitchers, as Johnny Cueto will certainly outclass Jeff Karstens, who is 0-3 in his last three starts against the Reds with a 6.45 ERA.
Cueto, however, is 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA against the Pirates, and has been phenomenal for the Reds this season, going 10-2 with a 3.32 ERA.
And the Cincinnati right-hander will be out to avenge his worst start since mid-June, as he gave up four runs on 10 hits in a 6-4 loss last Friday. He still took a no-decision, which means his unbeaten streak is now at seven straight starts, a stretch that's seen him go 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA.
All Cincinnati.
2♦ CINCINNATI
Karl Garrett
No Utley, no Victorino, no Howard, no problem for the Phillies who have now won 10 of their last 12 games, including last night's 6-1 win in the series opener over the Marlins who have now lost 4 of their last 7 games.
G-Man going to go with the Phillies again tonight, as Philadelphia looks to improve upon their 12-3 record at Florida their last 15 games.
I realize Anibal Sanchez is pitching his best baseball of the season right now, and is coming into this one of a one-hit shutout of the Giants, but his counterpart Kyle Kendrick has looked sharp his last 2 trips to the hill, working 13 innings of 2 run ball for a 1-0 mark.
The Phillies are breathing down the neck of the Braves right now, and with that kind of momentum on their side, I don't care who is in the lineup right now, the Phils are a "go-with" as far as the G-Man is concerned.
Play Philadelphia to make it a 13-3 mark in Florida their last 16 games with the win tonight.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
DUNKEL INDEX
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
The Rays look to build on their 6-0 record in David Price's last six home starts versus a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is the pick (-180) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180)
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.312; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.449
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-160); Over
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 13.066; Cubs (Dempster) 13.951
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A
Game 905-906: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.917; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.173
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-185); Over
Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.130; Florida (Sanchez) 15.405
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Under
Game 909-910: NY Mets at Atlanta (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.214; Atlanta (Medlen) 14.702
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Over
Game 911-912: Houston at St. Louis (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 16.018; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.630
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-240); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+200); Under
Game 913-914: Washington at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 15.939; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.634
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Under
Game 915-916: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.661; LA Dodgers (Padilla) 14.395
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 917-918: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 15.845; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.234
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-190); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-190); Under
Game 919-920: Kansas City at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (O'Sullivan) 14.488; Oakland (Anderson) 15.272
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-185); Over
Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Jackson) 16.153; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.968
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under
Game 923-924: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels 13.236; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.814
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+125); Under
Game 925-926: Cleveland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.003; Boston (Lester) 15.318
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-270); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-270); Over
Game 927-928: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.862; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.662
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Under
Game 929-930: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 14.418; Seattle (Fister) 15.282
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Over
WNBA
Chicago at Los Angeles
The Sky look to build on their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games. Chicago is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2)
Game 651-652: Chicago at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 112.598; Los Angeles 108.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -130
Without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the lineup, Florida gets the call tonight. Sanchez takes the mound for the Fish, and he has been dealing all season (2.60 home ERA). He enters tonight's contest in top form, posting an ERA of only 1.71 over his last 3 starts. Sanchez has also had a lot of success against the Phillies recently, posting a 3-1 record with an ERA of only 1.95 against them since September 22, 2009. The Phillies have lost 6 of Kendrick's 10 road starts this season, and he is carrying an ERA of 4.41 in those games. In fact, the Phillies are just 4-10 in his last 14 road starts. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss, and I'll take them in this bounce back spot with the better starter on the hill.