Tom Freese
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
Detroit starter Armondo Galarraga is 8-4 in his team starts this year. Galarraga has allowed 11 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Tigers are 21-6 their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Detroit is 13-6 their last 19 games. Chicago starter Edwin Jackson has lost his last 4 starts allowing 20 runs in his last 22.1 innings of work. The White Sox are 17-41 their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. AL Central teams.
BIG AL
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Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Chicago White Sox
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Edwin Jackson has moved teams once again, and this time it's back to the American League Central as the D-Backs shipped the 26-year-old righthander to Chicago at the trade deadline. The White Sox will be Jackson's fifth team in just his eighth Major League season and as luck would have it, his first start with his newest team will be not only against one of his former teams, but in a park that he is very familiar with and has had a lot of success in. Jackson has 18 appearances (17 starts) at Comerica Park, and he is 9-3 there with a 4.24 ERA which makes Comerica his best ballpark by far. Jackson should be pumped, not just to be back in the AL, but to have a chance to help a contender as heading into today, the White Sox are 60-45 and leading the AL Central by a slim margin over the Twins. The Tigers have been floundering lately and now find themselves eight games behind the Sox, so this is a critical series for them, but their starting pitching has really been letting them down lately as their team ERA is 4.88 over the past seven days and their starting ERA is an ugly 7.16 over their past three games. Armando Galarraga will get his 14th start of the season and he may still be smarting a bit from a Kevin Youkilis line drive that ricocheted off his ankle in his last outing. Galarraga has not won a game in over a month (June 24 in New York against the Mets). Take the White Sox.
JOEL TYSON
Comp play winner on Washington-Arizona under the total last night.
For Wednesday, going to back the White Sox to down the Tigers.
Edwin Jackson was not having a good go of it with Arizona before coming over to the White Sox but this "fresh" start against one of his old clubs will give him a chance for some redemption.
All the Sox have done is win 7 of their last 9 games, and 4 of the 6 season series showdowns with the Tigers.
All Detroit has done is drop 16 of their last 21 games, and pitcher Armando Galarraga has been fairly non-descript of late. Galarraga has also allowed 11 runs over his last 18 innings of work against the Pale Hose.
This game is priced near a pick, and in my mind, the Sox are the way better team tonight.
Take Chicago.
4♦ WHITE SOX
JEFF BENTON
I’m on a 112-79-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away, including hitting four of the last six. For Wednesday, we’ll roll the dice with the Astros plus the massive price at St. Louis.
I have a simple rule: You give me an underdog of greater than 2-to-1 and that team has won seven straight games by a combined score of 57-12, I’m taking my chances. You read that correctly: Houston is riding a seven-game winning streak that’s been so dominant that it scored six more runs last night (18) than it has given up in its seven wins combined (12). Now that is impressive!
Obviously, win #8 in a row doesn’t figure to come easily, as the Astros are running up against Cardinals All-Star Chris Carpenter, who is 11-3 with a 2.93 ERA. However, St. Louis is just 1-4 in Carpenter’s last five starts against the Astros, including a 4-1 home loss on May 13 (with Carpenter yielding all four runs in eight innings).
Meanwhile, Astros starter J.A. Happ – acquired in last week’s Roy Oswalt trade – isn’t some scrub. He’s 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four big-league starts this season, and that includes a 5-0 victory over Milwaukee in his Astros debut on Friday. In that contest, Happ scattered two hits and four walks while fanning six in six innings.
The Astros have now taken seven of nine from the Cardinals, including six consecutive wins at Busch Stadium (in fact the road team is on an 8-1 run in this rivalry). Additionally, Houston has won seven straight against division rivals during its winning streak and it is 13-3 in its last 16 Wednesday contests.
3♦ HOUSTON ASTROS
Stephen Nover
On tonight's card, I'm going to take a huge underdog as my complimentary selection: the Minnesota Twins.
Tampa Bay's David Price has been tremendous this season, particularly at home. But there's value getting this high of a price with the Twins and Scott Baker.
Both teams have been playing well. Minnesota is 8-2 in its last 10, while the Rays have won 10 of their last 11.
The Twins have Joe Mauer, the reigning AL MVP, back in their lineup. The Rays are missing injured first baseman Carlos Pena, while outfielder Ben Zobrist is day-to-day with back stiffness.
Price hasn't gone eight innings during his past four starts. He threw 115 pitches in his last outing. The disciplined Twins hitters know how to work the count. So I don't see Price going deep into this game either.
Minnesota is going with Scott Baker on the hill. Baker can be tough even though his record is 9-9 with a 5.00 ERA. He's been pitching better lately. The Twins are 9-2 when Baker pitches on four days rest, which is the case here.
Baker and Price squared off a little more than a month ago and the Twins won, 2-1. Baker held Tampa Bay to one run in seven innings, while striking out eight. He's certainly capable of repeating that.
5♦ MINNESOTA
Michael Cannon
I’m now on a 6-1 run with my last seven free plays after the Diamondbacks win last night!
Take the White Sox for the road win over the Tigers tonight.
These two split a doubleheader yesterday and the White Sox are the better team by far, so I see them grabbing the win tonight.
Detroit is just 5-16 in its last 21 overall, while the White Sox have won seven of their last nine.
Newcomer Edwin Jackson will start for the ChiSox and he’s 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA in three career starts against Detroit.
The Tigers will counter with Armando Galarraga, who has struggled with a 0-2 record and a 5.16 ERA in his last five starts.
Take the White Sox for the road win.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Rocketman
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Milwaukee @ Chicago
Play: Chicago
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Milwaukee is 4-10 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Milwaukee has lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Milwaukee is 14-25 this year in day games. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.05 ERA overall this year. Manny Parra is 2-5 with a 6.06 ERA overall this year, 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA on the road and 0-2 with an 8.64 ERA his last 3 starts. Ryan Dempster has a 3.92 ERA overall this year and a 3.70 ERA at home this season. Parra is 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA overall vs Chicago Cubs since 1997. Dempster is 13-2 with a 3.19 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs today!
Wunderdog
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Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9½
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The Blue Jays have given the Yankees fits this season and own the best record in baseball against them this year at 7-4. The Yankee bats that are always a threat, have really been struggling of late. It won't get any easier against Shaun Marcum who has pitched brilliantly on the season, entering here with a 3.24 ERA for the season. Phil Hughes has delivered a 12-4 mark this year for the Yankees and made the All-Star team for the first time. Both pitchers have shutdown stuff, and the Yankees bats have been struggling. I'll call for this one to stay UNDER the total.
Doug Upstone
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati wasn’t his usual self in his last start allowing four runs and a career high-tying 10 hits in 51/3 innings in 6-4 loss against Atlanta. Cueto (10-2, 3.32 ERA) looks to get his club back in the win column against Pittsburgh whom he has an 18 inning scoreless stretch against. Cueto is 8-0 after walking one or less hitters each of his last two outings over the last two seasons. (Reds Record) Pittsburgh had a rare offensive outbreak in 7-6 victory last night, however is 3-18 playing against a team with a win percentage between 54% to 62% this year.
Frank Jordan
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Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Scott Baker is a .500 pitcher, but has a 1.29 era and a win this year against Tampa Bay. David Price is 14-5 and was the starting pitcher for the American League in this years All-Star game, but in his only start against Minnesota is 0-1. Look for a great pitchers duel with Baker and the Twins being a touch better then Price and the Rays. Play Minnesota
Tony Stoffo
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Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Under 8.5
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With Kyle Kendrick facing Anibal Sanchez this evening I have to look for a very low scoring game and a solid release on the Under in this spot. Kendrick for the Phillies has looked sharp in his last 2 starts against the Diamondbacks and Rockies allowing just 2 runs, and 10 hits in 12 innings pitched. While Sanchez has been just as sharp if not better giving up just 4 earned runs, and 14 hits in 23 innings pitched while striking out 19. All this adds up to some nice numbers with a 1.71 ERA and 0.952 WHIP. Plus throw in the fact that 7 of the 9 games played between these division rivals this season have gone under the total with the under being a perfect 4-0 in Florida, and you can see how another low scoring game is on the horizon once again here tonight.
Hollywood Sports
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Astros at Cardinals
Prediction: Under
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St. Louis sends out Chris Carpenter with his 11-3 mark and a 2.93 ERA. Carpenter thrives at home where he boasts a dominant 2.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .225. He faces off against J.A. Happ who is 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA. The lefty came over to Houston in the Roy Oswalt trade and should continue to pitch well against a Cards' club where the Under is 33-16-4 in their last 53 games when facing a left-handed starter. Furthermore, the Under is 28-13-1 in the last 42 meetings between these two clubs.
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Both of these starting pitchers share a deeper sabermetric statistic that we consider important. Isolated Power (ISO) is a sabermetric determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Happ and Carpenter have low ISO's of .091 and .134 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. Why are statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -147
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I cannot see Texas opening this series with Seattle with 2 straight losses, and I'll lay the juice on the Rangers Wednesday because of it. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 games, and 6-20 in their last 26 games overall. Trading away Cliff Lee signified that this team has packed it in. The Mariners are just 1-5 in starter Doug Fister's last 6 starts, while the Rangers are 9-2 in C.J. Wilson's last 11 starts.
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Wilson has been solid all year for the Rangers, going 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA in all starts, posting a 2.82 ERA in 8 road starts, and he's 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. Texas is 21-7 int heir last 28 during Game 2 of a series. The Rangers are 10-2 in Wilson's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Wilson has faced the Mariners twice this season, allowing 3 earned runs in 14 innings for a 1.93 ERA. Texas won those 2 games by finals of 12-2 and 3-1, respectively. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Mariners +138
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Reasons the Mariners win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SEATTLE) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. This is a 58-37 ML System hitting 61.1% since 1997 while gaining +46.6 units.
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2.) Seattle starter Doug Fister has posted a 2.58 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Those are numbers we'll certainly back at this price. Bet the Mariners at home.
John Ryan
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Houston Astros vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Houston Astros
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3* graded play on the Houston Astros as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that the Astros will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 138-168 making 95 units since 1997. That is not a typo, this system has hit just 45% winners, but by using an average play of a plus 191 dog the profits have been enormous. Play against NL home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season ad with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Happ came over from Philadelphia in the Oswalt trade and his a solid left-handed starter. He proved that in his last start (first for the Astros) pitching 6 solid innings of two hit ball. Carpenter pitched a shutout in his last start, but in nearly every case when this occur he has allowed more 3 ER in the next start. Astros are a solid 10-4 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals this season. Cardinals are also in a weak spot noting they are just 6-14 (-14.2 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons; 2-7 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in home games revenging 2 straight losses versus opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the Astros.