DAVE COKIN
INDIANS VS. ANGELS
PLAY: INDIANS +110
The Indians continue to be a bad offensive baseball team that just hasn’t performed as hoped for this season, and that’s why once Game #162 has been played, Cleveland will pack up the gear and call it a day. The disappointment certainly isn’t the fault of what has been a solid starting pitching corps, with one of those talented arms on display today.
Danny Salazar is really starting to figure it out, and the Indians have to be thrilled that he’s no longer having consistent injury issues. Salazar is progressing nicely from a big heat thrower to a very good all around pitcher. His control has really improved and Salazar is now good enough to hang tough even when he’s not generating loads of swings and misses.
Hector Santiago will go for the Halos in this getaway day matinee at Anaheim. Santiago has been a pleasant surprise for Mike Scioscia. But the southpaw is off a couple of less than stellar outings, and one can’t help but wonder how effective Santiago will be as his innings start to pile up.
I can’t bank on much from the feeble Indians attack, but it’s not as though the Angels are clicking on all cylinders right now. They’re mired in a pretty deep slump presently. It’s just a blink ago that the Halos had caught and passed the Astros for the AL West lead. Now the Angels are again three games behind and while they’re still on top of the wold card standings, that might not be the case for long if the Angels don’t kick this current skid.
The key for me in this game is the starting pitching. Santiago has the better ERA, but Salazar owns a clear edge in the all the more revealing analytics categories that I have more faith in. Salazar is catching the Angels at the right time with the team off a horrible night with sticks on Tuesday. I like the idea of grabbing a little plus money with the Indians today.
Rob Vinciletti
Seattle vs. Colorado
Play: Over 11
These two have had 29 runs scored in the first two games and it should be more of the same here today. Colorado averages over 5 runs in day games and 5 runs here at home. This game also fits a league wide totals system that pertain to yesterday high scoring game. Both Pitchers, Walker for Seattle and Rusin for the Rockies have elevated earned run averages. Look for this one to go over the total.
Steve Rosen
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: San Diego Padres -101
San Diego is scorching hot , and coming of a loss last night and Kennedy on the mound makes me really like this game. San diego has won 9 of their last 11 games. While the Brewers have only won 2 of their last 11 ! Brewers pitcher Jungmann is a solid pitcher, but he is no match against Kennedy and the hot and angry San Diego squad. Kennedy only allowed 1 earned run against his last time pitching against the Brewers. Brewers are no match.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -121
Edges - Pirates: Jeff Locke 2.90 home ERA as opposed to 6.43 away ERA this season. Cubs: Dan Haren 4.17 away ERA as opposed to 2.71 home ERA this campaign. With the visiting team just 7-14 in Haren’s starts this year, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Jim Feist
Boston vs. New York
Play: Over 9
Yankees stadium is a small park and a pair of surging offenses meet. New York has been top 5 in runs scored all season while Boston is finally scoring some runs after going with the kids. The home team throws 21-year old Luis Severino into the AL East rivalry, who is a combined 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 19 games for Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The Yankees are on a 7-2 runover the total. The New York offense will have no trouble scoring off of Steven Wright (4.53 ERA), the 30-year old knuckler, who is 1-3 on the road with a 5.28 ERA. The Over is 5-1 in Wrights last 6 starts overall and the Over is 5-1 when the Yankees face a right-handed starter. And the Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in New York.
World Wide Sports
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: San Francisco Giants -1.5 +100
Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for the Giants. Bumgarner is 11-6 with a 3.39 ERA in 21 starts this season. I like the value of catching the Giants on the run line at even money. Williams Perez gets the nod for the Atlanta Braves. Perez is 4-1 with a 4.14 ERA in over 54 innings including 9 starts. The Braves struggle versus LHP while the Giants are in the top 10 vs RHP. The Braves are slumping as they sit 3-7 in their last 10 overall. The Giants are just the better team.
Mike Lundin
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City Royals -160
The Kansas City Royals defeated their AL Central rival the Detroit Tigers 5-1 last night. I like the Royals to make it two on the bounce as they send Johnny Cueto to the mound for the second time. Cueto conceded three runs through six innings of a 7-6 loss to the Jays in his Royals debut. He has surrendered three earned runs or less in each of his last eight starts and there is no one in this Detroit team with more than one hit against Cueto. The Tigers will turn to 24 year old rookie southpaw Matt Boyd who'll make his first start with the team since coming over from Toronto in last week's David Price deal. He has conceded 11 runs in 6 2/3 innings over his first two career starts. He allowed seven runs his very last start when he failed to record a single out over 28 pitches against the Red Sox.
Notes
Kansas City is 7-1 in their last eight games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 4-1 in its last five games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit is 3-13 in its last 16 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in its last four home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Kansas City has won four of the last five meetings at Comerica Park.
Tony Stoffo
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Play: New York Mets -144
New York Mets will seek their sixth straight victory by completing the sweep over the Marlins. The bullpen has thrown 11 1/3 scoreless innings during the winning streak and they've finally got some run support, plating 17 runs through the first two games of this series. The Mets send out Matt Harvey, 9-7 with a 2.91 ERA, in hopes of keeping the streak intact. He has a 1.86 ERA over his last eight outings.
Miami has hit a dry spell, scoring one run or fewer five times during a 2-10 slump. The Marlins hand the ball to David Phelps, 4-7 with a 3.93. Returning to the rotation last month after a brief spell in the bullpen, Phelps is 0-3 with a 3.57 ERA in his four recent starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City Royals -160
I have no problem laying big juice on the Royals in this one, as Kansas City will have a massive advantage on the mound with their newly acquired ace Johnny Cueto going up against the Tigers Matt Boyd.
Cueto enters with a 2.70 ERA and 0.959 WHIP over 20 starts. He has a rock solid 3.24 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 12 road starts and a 2.50 ERA over his last 3. Even if he's not at his best, it should be enough for a win here against Detroit, as Boyd has been awful in his first 2 big league starts. He allowed 4 runs on 9 hits in 6 2/3 innings at home against the Rangers on 6/27 and was then rocked for 7 runs on 6 hits before recording an out at home against the Red Sox on 7/2.
Royals are 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and 23-9 in their last 32 games when listed as a favorite. Detroit is 1-6 in their last 6 as a home dog and 0-4 in their last 4 against a division opponent.
Jesse Schule
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees
The Yankees crushed the Red Sox in the Bronx last night, scoring a dozen runs in the 6th and 7th innings. It wasn't hard to see that coming, and I had plays both on New York and the over. Here is what I had to say prior to the game: "New York is leading the major leagues in scoring, batting .290 since the All Star break. The Red Sox on the other hand are 0-7 on the road since the break" I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees beat up on another struggling Red Sox pitcher tonight. Steven Wright will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he's coming off a home win over the White Sox his last time out. Wright (4-4, 4.53 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits and two walks over seven innings in an 8-2 victory at Fenway. He hasn't had as much luck on the road, with a record of 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA in eight appearances. The Yankees hand the ball to Luis Severino, who is considered one of the top pitching prospects in the majors. The 21 year old right-hander comes in with a record of 7-0 with a 1.91 ERA at Triple-A, The Yankees have won seven of their last eight home games, while Boston has dropped eight straight on the road.
Sleepyj
Mariners / Rockies Under 11
The Rockies have now lost 7 of the last 9 games and Chris rusin will take the hill today in Colorado..Rusin has a ERA of 4.61 and his last two games have been rather bad..I think he can step it up here today at home however..Rockies need a win and so does Rusin..He hasn;t picked up a win since June 21st..Rusin has pitched well at home though..He has given up a total of 11 runs in 5 games..Just a tad over 2rpg...Taking Rusin on the road is not a good idea..I like the fact that Seattle has been rather strong in this series as well..They might just rely on the pitching with Walker to take care of business today...I expect a slower day for the bats on both sides...Seattle isn't the greatest aginst the LHP either...Rusin may want to avoid pitching to Nelson Cruz today..He has homered for 5 games straight...I think Rusin will pitch around him for the most part and avoid that big bomb today...Taijuan Walker will take the hill for the Mariners today...He has a 4.73 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22...Walker overall though is a very good pitcher...When he takes the mound the Mariners just seem to win...They actually won 9 of his last 10 appearances..Walker struggled for a bit after the break, but seems to be dialed in now..Rockies have never seen him before and i think he can limit this Rockies lineup today..He will be looking for back to back wins today...Walker on the road has been light out this year..In his last 6 road games, in 5 of those road games he allowed 1 run or less..He had one bad outing against Detroit a few weeks back..He is on his game right now and should be ok today..This total is a good steal here today at 11..This one stays under.
Mr Vegas
St. Louis vs Cincinnati
Play St. Louis
You need a great pitching and defense on the road and St. Louis has it. They also have Carlos Martinez (2.61 ERA, 11-4) going. His 1.13 ERA since May 20 was the best among pitchers with at least 10 starts in that span, and he was limiting opponents to a .122 batting average with runners in scoring position. Over his last five starts, opponents had gone 1-for-23 in those situations. Martinez allowed more than three runs for the first time in 14 starts, but is in bounce back mode facing a Cincinnati offense that is 19th in baseball. The Cardinals are 6-1 on the road against a team with a losing record, plus 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day. 24-year old David Holmberg has made only one start, walking 3 in 6 innings allowing 5 hits, so jump on the first-place visitor.
Cajun Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates (-) vs. Chicago Cubs
The Pirates and Cubs square off on Wednesday night in the final game of their midweek short two-game set. The Cubs will send Dan Haren to the bump knowing he is 0-2 his last three outings and the Cubs are 0-3 in each of his last three starts. The Pirates will counter with Jeff Locke who is 1-1 over his last three starts with the Pirates winning two of the three. The Pirates are 61-43 SU for a profit of +9.5 Units on the season including 35-17 SU at home for a profit of +11.4 Units. The Cubs qualify in one of our favorite play against situations that we have used many times and cashed many tickets with this one. We want to play AGAINST MLB underdogs when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. This system has a record of 869-585 SU for a profit of +6456 Units including a run of 18-3 SU the last twenty-one qualifying contests. The Pirates have the edge here so we will back them on Wednesday night against the Cubs.
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Phillies
Play: Phillies
Break up the Phils, who are an MLB-best 13-3 since the All-Star break,, equaling their win total from their previous 52 games! New star Mikael Franco hit a decisive grand slam in Tuesday's 6-2 win over the Dodgers, who look quite mortal on nights when Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke are not on the mound. On Wednesday, Brett Anderson, dealing with Achilles tendon problems, gets the start, Meanwhile, the Phils' Aaron Harang aims at consecutive wins for the first time this season after last Thursday's 4-1 win over the Braves.