Andrew Lange
Kansas City at Detroit
Play: Under 7.5
Johnny Cueto just pulled off arguably the toughest two venues in MLB with an 8-inning, 0 ER effort at Coors Field followed by a 6-inning, 3 ER American League debut at Toronto. I think we'll see Cueto's dominance cool off some with the move to the AL but his profile is a good one against a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup. Keep in mind that against right-handers Miguel Cabrera (DL) and Yoenis Céspedes (traded to Mets) batted a combined .335 with 26 home runs. Rookie Matt Boyd will make his Tigers debut tonight as he squares off against Kansas City. Boyd, a lefty, came over in the David Price trade. He made two starts for Toronto in the Rogers Centre where he allowed five home runs in 6.2 innings which is a concern but his Minor League numbers (2.38 ERA, 9.38 K per 9) suggest he's got some upside. His fly ball tendencies and coming from the left side put him a better position to succeed tonight in Comerica against the Royals. And behind the dish tonight will be Marty Foster who over his last 116 games dating back to 2012 has delivered a solid 57% unders. He's currently tied for second among full-time umps in terms of strikeouts per game at 16.9 this season. Play this one under the total.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres +117
The San Diego Padres (52-55) are showing great value as road underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers (45-63) today. The Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and clearly have not quit on their season.
The Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall as they knew they were sellers at the deadline. Taylor Jungmann has been a solid starter this year for the Brewers, but he's clearly being overvalued here.
Ian Kennedy has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in nine starts. Kennedy has been pitching well for quite some time, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts, including 2 or fewer in eight of those.
The Padres are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 17-47 in their last 64 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee is 8-25 in its last 33 vs. NL West opponents. The Brewers are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brandon Lee
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Play: New York Mets -142
New York has won 5 straight and 8 of 10 overall, while the Marlins are just 2-9 in their last 11. The Mets are playing with a ton of confidence right now and are starting to get some offense to pair with their strong starting rotation. Hard to not like their chances here, as they send out Matt Harvey against David Phelps. Harvey has a 2.91 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in his last 3 outings, while Phelps owns a 4.32 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Phelps is also just 3-15 in his last 18 starts as a dog of +100 to +150, while New York is 24-8 in their last 32 as a favorite of -125 to -175.
Vegas Butcher
Tampa Bay Rays -105
Carlos Rodon has some interesting splits. He has a 4.5 FIP/xFIP at home compared to 3.3 FIP/xFIP on the road. In addition he sports a strong 2.2/3.0 FIP/xFIP against lefties but a mediocre 4.7/4.3 FIP/xFIP against right-handers. Today he’s facing a righty-heavy Tampa team at home. The Rays actually rank 4th offensively against left-handers on the season, so this is a poor matchup for Rodon, especially when considering his control issues (5.4 BB/9 and 13% BB-rate). On the other side is Erasmo Ramirez, who has an inflated road ERA of 4.3 on the season. His 3.1 road FIP, strong 21% K-rate, and 0.4 HR/9 rate, indicate a pitcher who should have a much better ERA away from home. His extremely unlucky 59% strand-rate (average is ~ 70%) is a big reason for this inflated number. I expect regression to the positive to start taking place going forward, and against a 29th ranked offensively lineup like Chicago’s, today is as good a day as any.
Cleveland Indians +108
Salazar is my 18th ranked starter this year, who comes into this matchup with a slick 28% K-rate, 4.1 K/BB ratio, and 3.0 SIERA (13th best mark in the league). He’s a particularly poor matchup for the Angels, as his best offering is his 85 MPH changeup, a pitch that is 10 MPH slower than his 95 MPH fastball. Angels rank 28th out of 30 teams against this particular pitch and I expect Salazar to keep this offense off-balance all day. On the other side we have Hector Santiago, who is a prime candidate for continued regression going forward. His 2.8 ERA isn’t anywhere close to his 4.1 FIP and his -1.3 E-F differential is the 2nd highest in the league. A greatly inflated 86% strand-rate has a lot to do with it. Most people assume that Cleveland struggles to produce offensively against left-handed pitching, but this lineup actually ranks 9th against lefties on the season (they’re slightly better against lefties than righties). Santiago registered a 5.2 and 4.9 SIERA in each of his last 2 starts and I’ve noticed a slight velocity drop on his fastball. His 123 innings thrown is close to the 127 innings he logged last year, so I’m wondering if fatigue could be an issue here. Angels’ key relievers Joe Smith (threw in 3 consecutive games) and Huston Street (threw in 2 consecutive games and 3 times in the last 4) might not be at 100% effectiveness level given that this is a day-game, and besides them two this Angels bullpen is very mediocre. Unless Santiago rediscovers his ‘form’, I think Indians have a very strong shot to grab another win today.
San Francisco Giants -190
The Braves are in a very poor shape as they have one of the worst offenses in the league (#28 against lefties) and one of the weakest bullpens (#24 on the season but that’s with Grili and Jim Johnson in there for most of the year). Yesterday, Atlanta was winning 3-2 going into the 8th inning but their bullpen promptly allowed 7 hits, 2 HR’s, and 6 runs in the final two innings. With such ineffectiveness offensively and with their bullpen, there’s a lot of pressure on the starting pitcher to perform. Williams Perez might have pitched well against the Giants earlier this year (7 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs) but that was his first time facing this lineup. And it’s not like he was ‘that’ effective. He only had 3 K’s in those 7 innings and issued 4 BB’s. San Fran ranks 2nd offensively against right-handers and I doubt that Perez will put up another goose-egg against them. There’s a reason why he spent most of July in the minors. In addition I like how Bumgarner is coming off a poor outing. He allowed 9 hits, 2 HR’s, and 6 runs in 7 innings against the Rangers though he did have 8 K’s and 0 BB’s in that one. It’s important to note that both HR’s and all 6 runs came in the first 2 innings, as Bumgarner settled down and threw 5 scoreless ones thereafter. The Braves rank 30th in ISO in the majors and have the fewest HR’s hit this year at 68. I doubt they’ll have much success of Bumgarner tonight. I expect an easy win for San Fran in this one.
Houston Astros -156
Yesterday, this 30th ranked Rangers bullpen pitched 4 innings yet they didn’t allow even one run, as Houston lost the game 4-3. In the 6th inning, Houston had bases loaded with 1 out yet failed to produce a run. In the 9th, they had runners on 1st and 3rd base with 0 outs, yet once again failed to cross home-plate. Well, I think we have to back the Astros once again tonight. Tolleson has now thrown in 2 straight games and 6 out of the last 7 days. Freeman struggled yesterday (27 pitches) and has thrown in 3 of the last 4. Patton and Diekman made appearances as well. There’s an even bigger bullpen edge for the Astros in tonight’s contest than there was yesterday. Besides this obvious advantage, there’s a strong edge between the two starters. Kazmir is a lefty which is an issue for Texas. They rank only 23rd offensively against left-handers, as Odor, Fielder, Moreland, Hamilton, and Choo could all struggle tonight. They’re facing a pitcher in Kazmir who has a very low HR-rate this year, at 0.5 HR/9 and 6% HR/FB, and who has shown ability to control this Rangers lineup already (21 inn; 8 hits; 3 runs; 22 K to 5 BB). Opposite Kazmir is Nick Martinez, who ranks as my 158th starter out of 165 pitchers. Martinez is primarily a fastball/slider combo pitcher, while this Astros offense ranks top-10 against both of those offerings. He’s coming off a month of July where he registered a 5.8 FIP and a 2.0 HR/9 rate. And everyone knows that Houston loves to hit the long-ball. I expect the Astros to avoid a sweep tonight.
Wunderdog
Seattle @ Colorado
Pick: Over 11
The Colorado Rockies and the Seattle Mariners have produced 29 runs in the first two games of their series. The Mariners have done the bulk of that scoring as they have won the first two games at Coors Field, producing 18 runs. The Mariners have been swinging the bats very well since just after the break, and have now scored 5.1 runs per game over their last 15 contests, and are certainly having a good time at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. The M's are now 8-3-1 to the OVER in their last 12 games, and have enjoyed a 5-0-1 run to the OVER in their last six vs. a losing team. The Rockies have now played to a 9-1-1 mark to the OVER in their last 11 games when following a loss, and own a 22-7-1 OVER mark at home vs. an interleague right-hander in their last 30. The OVER gets the call in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay -102 over CHICAGO
After a hot run that saw them score runs in bunches, the South Side is regressing back to their anemic offensive ways. Chicago has dropped five of six and they’ll call on Carlos Rodon to try and get them headed in the right direction again. Rodon has decent stuff for sure but he’s a guy that cannot throw strikes consistently, which has him constantly working from behind in the count and getting himself into jams. Rodon’s first-pitch strike rate of 54% is the lowest in the majors among starters with 12 or more starts. He’s walked 17 batters over his past 25 innings and has walked 48 over 80 innings overall. Because he can’t throw strikes, Rodon’s WHIP is 1.68 and 1.74 over his last five starts. He also has a disturbing 31% line-drive rate over his last five starts (26% overall) and that’s what you get when hitters are sitting dead red when he’s behind in the count 2-0 and/or 3-1. Pitching for a cooled off South Side, Rodon’s win expectation isn’t very high.
By contrast, the Rays are feeling it. They scored a bunch off of Chris Sale last night and have now scored 20 runs over their last three games. Tampa has a nice edge on the hill too with Erasmo Ramirez going. Ramirez entered 2015 as a bit of a forgotten commodity, since he was coming off a tough season where he was unable to stay healthy and fulfill the upside we saw him from a couple of seasons ago. That said, he has started to fulfill that upside recently. He has a nifty 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 72 innings as a starter. His base skills are solid to with 8 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and a 46% groundball rate. Ramirez’s noteworthy skill changes from 2014 include a jump in his swing and miss rate from 11.1% to 12.3%, and a reduction in his ball% from 38% to 36%. With some of the best off-speed stuff in MLB, now is the time to scoop this guy up at a cheap price. Great value here.
COLORADO +106 over Seattle
Chris Rusin put up a horrible 4.82 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in July, stats that will cause him to be avoided by most and undervalued in the marketplace. There's some serious potential hidden value here. Rusin's base skills in July were excellent and featured elite command and tons of groundballs: 7.4 K’s/9, 1.6 BB’s/9, 60% groundballs.He was able to miss bats (10.2% swing and miss) and gets ahead of hitters at a top-tier clip (70% first pitch strike). At this park, those numbers hold nothing but value and it’s definitely worth noting that at Coors Field, Rusin has a 3.66/3.79 ERA/xERA split.
Taijuan Walker’s stock is high after he threw a nine-inning, one hitter in his last start against the Twins (incidentally, Minnesota is batting .103 over their last 10 games). Walker has upside for sure but that game had to take a lot out of him, as it was his first complete game in the majors. Prior to that start, Walker had been tagged for 19 runs over four starts covering just 21.1 innings. Walker also yields a lot of fly balls and has the type of profile that does not play well at this venue. Walkers groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split is a horrible 35%/24%/41%. The Rockies own the game’s top home OPS (.843) and the league’s best number over the past two weeks (.853). The Rocks offense also owns an exaggerated split that heavily favors games against RH starters. Walker is a righty and his road ERA is 5.18. We’re backing a groundball pitcher versus a fly-ball/line-drive pitcher at this unforgiving park. Throw in the tag and we have another true value play.
Cleveland +104 over L.A. ANGELS
Baseball is a funny game with no rhyme or reason to it in many instances. Hector Santiago is a perfect example of that. Santiago is striking out more batters than his history and skills say he should be but we have to question how a guy with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 29%/24%/47% has an ERA of 2.70 after 20 starts. Santiago’s xERA of 4.28 is far from sold on his numbers, which has been aided by a trifecta of fortunate hit%, strand % (84%), and hr/f. This is a guy that gives up a ton of fly-balls and line-drives. There is no getting around that fact. That puts much of Santiago's ERA in the hands of the hr/f gods and the balls being hit right at people gods. They've been nice to him so far but at some point it’s going to wreak havoc on his ERA. Santiago should be priced for his stability (he eats innings) but not for any sort of performance improvement. He’s been lucky and cannot be favored over one of the best skills set in the game in Danny Salazar.
First off, let us inform you that the Halos are batting .181 over their last 10 games. They were shutout last night in 12 innings and now this is a day game after a night game. That’s tougher on hitters before a single pitch is thrown. Salazar continues to pitch like a budding rotation anchor. Not only were his stats in July excellent (2.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), his skills in July completely supported his dominance: 9.3 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, 52% groundballs. What's even more promising is Salazar's improved ability to pound the strike zone. He had a 65% first pitch strike rate and 13% swing and miss rate in July. Salazar has 136 K’s in 119 innings. His xERA of 3.08 is sixth best in MLB and now he’s facing a team that is seeing BB gun pellets at the plate.
San Diego +114 over MILWAUKEE
The emergence of rookie Taylor Jungmann while filling in for Wily Peralta during Peralta's recent DL stint, and Peralta's subsequent return, made Mike Fiers expendable. Jungmann has a BB/K split of 21/53 in 65 innings, spanning 10 starts. He has an impressive 89%/0% dominant start/disaster start split while hurling at least 5+ innings in each start, going six or more in seven of the 10, including four of his past five outings. That said, Jungmann has had luck on his side too with an unsustainable 80% strand rate. His 58% first-pitch strike rate and 8% overall swing and miss rate are below average so you can expect major-league hitters to adjust now that there’s plenty of film out on him. While things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly as his surface stats would indicate, Jungmann has accounted pretty well for himself in his first taste of the majors but we’ve seen plenty of fringe call-ups in the past thrive for a couple of months before the bottom falls out only to be never heard from again. Jungmann has some decent skills but he’s not this good and he’s also pitching for a laboring team that unloaded some thunder at the trade deadline and that has just one win in seven games since.
San Diego is batting 60 points higher than Milwaukee (.282 to .222) since the All-Star break. The Padres have been playing so much better lately and now sit just seven games out of a Wild Card spot going into today’s action. Ian Kennedy is 6-9 with a 4.44 ERA over 19 starts. Those numbers look even worse when you consider that he pitches half his games at Petco Park. However, Kennedy's skills are so much better than his surface stats. He continues to generate plenty of swings and misses but he’s been the victim of some very bad luck, as his hit rate, strand rate, and especially his home run per fly ball rate are currently on the wrong side of league average. Over his last five starts, Kennedy has a BB/K split of 7/24 over 29 frames to go along with an ERA of 3.38. Kennedy is having a rotten year on the stat sheet but there’s nothing wrong with his skills whatsoever. Of his 19 starts, 13 of them have been of the pure quality variety. His 10% swing and miss rate is above league average and so is his overall strikeout rate. The Padres are playing their best ball of the season with 12 wins in their past 18 games and one has to consider them a better than 50% chance to keep it rolling here.
Arizona +132 over WASHINGTON
Washington continues to be overpriced almost daily. They are a very risky favorite because they cannot score enough runs to support the great starting staff they employ (Nats are hitting .233 over their past 10 games). The Nats have fallen out of first place and they’re in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs altogether. They lost the first game of this series but tied it up last night when they squeaked out a 5-4 victory with Max Scherzer starting against Patrick Corbin. The matchup tonight for the Nationals is much tougher.
We’ve been backing Rubby De La Rosa all season with positive results. Pitching for Arizona, this guy is still under the radar. The Snakes have won De La Rosa’s last three starts by scores of 3-1, 2-0 and 6-4. De La Rosa’s 4.59 ERA is a direct result of a crazy 21% hr/f rate. He has a groundball rate of 51% but over his last five starts his groundball rate is 52% and his line-drive rate is 12%. That 12% line-drive rate over his last five starts is the best mark in the majors. De La Rosa’s command spike has come with strong underlying support from his command sub-indicators: 13% swing and miss rate%, 64% first-pitch strike rate. This is not a 4.59 ERA pitcher so his blossoming skills figure to push his ERA below 4.00. Buy-low targets do not get any better than De La Rosa.
Gio Gonzalez has very good skills too but there are some things in his profile that raises flags. Gonzalez’s BB/K split over 110 innings is 43/96. His BB/K split over his last four starts covering 20 innings is 10/20. Gonzalez is throwing a lot of pitches to get through five innings. His pitch count in his last game was 105 in just 4.2 innings. He had 106 and 107 pitches respectively in back-to-back starts two and 3 games ago, both covering just six innings. Over his last 10 starts, the Nationals are 5-5. Gonzalez has posted a 1.43 WHIP over his last five starts, another indicator that he’s been wiggling out of a lot of jams. Gonzalez is a good pitcher but his xERA is identical to that of Rubby De La Rosa’s (3.55). Furthermore, Arizona is in better form, they’re swinging hotter bats and they’re taking back a generous price.
Doug Upstone
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -163
Play On road favorites with a money line of -125 or more like the L.A. DODGERS, revenging a loss as a road favorite of -150 or more, with a winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season. Bottom line, teams like the Dodgers do not screw up too often after such a loss and are 50-12 in this role the next time out since 2011.
Dave Price
Seattle Mariners -114
The Seattle Mariners have reeled off three straight victories coming into the final game of this series against Colorado. The Rockies, meanwhile, have lost three straight and six of their last seven overall. Taijuan Walker is 8-7 with an unfortunate 4.73 ERA this season in spite of a superb 1.225 WHIP in 21 starts. Walker is coming off one of his best starts of the season. He pitched 9 innings while allowing only 1 run and striking out 11 in a 6-1 win over Minnesota on July 31. Chris Rusin has been horrible for Colorado, going 3-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in 11 starts and 3 relief appearances. Rusin is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three starts. The Mariners are 6-0 in Walker's last 6 road starts. The Rockies are 16-56 in their last 72 interleague games. The Rockies are 0-7 in Rusin's last 7 starts as an underdog.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox +183
Boston was supposed to be the team all other East contenders would be chasing by now and that age would be the Yankees demise. It may not be the rivalry of legends past, but it is still the Red Sox and the Yankees. The media did there part in putting some gas on the fire by getting Ortiz to comment about A-Rods season. Of course, the hatred and sensitive relationship is still there from comments blasted by A-Rods camp in seasons past. In this episode, Ortiz simply said it was great to see A-Rod doing so well and that he is doing it clean and right - as far as we know. The last five words certainly will do nothing to get A-Rod and Ortiz to ever share a beer together anywhere on the planet and perhaps it will get the Sox fired up a bit.
What I will suggest though is an arbitrage play to make each day for the next two weeks. Arbitrage in Wall Street terms means the simultaneous sellingand buying of homogenous securities. So, an example would be if you thought Apple computer would outperform Microsoft you would enter into an arbitrage by buying Apple and selling Microsoft. Still, another would be to buy 30-year bonds and sell 10-year notes to benefit from the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates. In the MLB realm, I highly recommend selling the Yankees and buying the Blue Jays. I firmly believe the Blue Jays will catch them over the next 2 weeks or at the very least close the gap.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres +117
The San Diego Padres (52-55) are showing great value as road underdogs to the Milwaukee Brewers (45-63) today. The Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and clearly have not quit on their season.
The Brewers are 2-9 in their last 11 games overall as they knew they were sellers at the deadline. Taylor Jungmann has been a solid starter this year for the Brewers, but he's clearly being overvalued here.
Ian Kennedy has been at his best on the road this season, going 2-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in nine starts. Kennedy has been pitching well for quite some time, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts, including 2 or fewer in eight of those.
The Padres are 10-3 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 17-47 in their last 64 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee is 8-25 in its last 33 vs. NL West opponents. The Brewers are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.
ASA
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Over 7½
The Phillies continue a strong run offensively in the second half as they posted 10 hits last night in a 6-2 win to open this home set with the Dodgers. Philadelphia has 10 or more hits in each of the last five games and in nine of the last 11 games. The Phillies are quietly 13-3 since the All Star break including 4-0 in the last four games vs. left-handed starters. In the last 10 games the Phillies are batting .304 vs. southpaw pitching and Brett Anderson has not pitched as well as his 3.14 ERA indicates. He has allowed 121 hits in 117 innings while posting only 81 strikeouts. His WHIP is road games is 1.38 and this is a tough ballpark to pitch in, known for short power alleys. Aaron Harang had a hot early pace this season before a very rough month of June to normalize his numbers. Harang returned after four weeks on the DL with a five-inning outing last week in which he allowed just one run for a win. He allowed nine hits in that start while producing only one strikeout and that game came against a Braves team that has some of the worst offensive numbers in baseball this season. The Dodgers have power threats up and down the lineup and it seems likely that Harang will be closer to his June numbers than his April numbers moving forward. Los Angeles had 11 hits but only two runs last night and the Dodgers are averaging nine hits per game in the second half of the season so far. Philadelphia has struggled in the bullpen most of the season and the Phillies recently dealt their closer Jonathan Papelbon to weaken the unit. The Dodgers own a 7.11 bullpen ERA in the last 10 games as this has been a vulnerable team of late with the NL West lead slipping to just two games over the Giants. The ‘over’ is on a 33-20-2 run in Philadelphia games with one or both teams scoring at least five runs in 15 of the last 20 games and after only eight runs last night despite 21 hits and eight walks it seems likely that the teams will do better than the 4-22 clip with runners in scoring position that last night’s game featured.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Minnesota at TORONTO (-1', +105)
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - The surging Blue Jays continue to set their sights on a playoff run after straight winning just before the trade deadline. Meanwhile, Twins manager Paul Molitor has to be wondering what went wrong after that June run sent the Twins near the top of the division. Now his club is slumping and in danger of dropping out of sight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is that Toronto offense. I normally and all for backing a young kid making his MLB debut. Myth has it that's the best value in baseball, when it comes to betting sports. But the Twins' Tyler Duffy is making his first-ever big-league start in the wrong venue against the wrong team. The Blue Jays are 34-21 at home, they've won three in a row and they bat .277 at home. They also rank No. 1 in run scored at home, with 302.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Overall, the Jays are in a much better place than the Twins right now, and the momentum is on Toronto's side to win this game. Last night, three of five A.L. East teams won their games - and remember two are playing one another. So, in reality, you're talking three winners getting it done by a combined final of 27-7.
3* TORONTO
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Under in the Red Sox-Yankees contest.
Last night the Yankees broke free once again, plating 9 runs in the bottom of the 7th inning to blow open a 4-3 contest.
Yes, the Yanks have been scoring some runs this month, but tonight is all about the debut of 21 year old Luis Severino. This kid is the reason the Yankess didn't trade for a front-line starter before the deadline, as he comes up from Triple A baseball with a 7-0 record and a 1.91 ERA in his 11 starts at that level.
Obviously, Severino is stepping up in class tonight, but I can just see the headlines tomorrow in the New York newspapers if this kid is as good as advertised, and I think he is going to go out there tonight and keep the Boston bats in check.
The only question that remains is will the New York bats erupt against Boston pitching?
Steven Wright is coming off his best work of the season, fanning a career-high 8 while allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over the White Sox.
Wright pitched in relief against the Yanks back in April and was the winning pitcher in his lone appearance versus them.
Look for Wright to be just good enough to help keep this game Under the total in the Bronx, as Severino dazzles in his debut.
2* BOSTON-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Scott Delaney
Severino is the Yankees' No. 1 prospect, according to some sources, and will makes his MLB debut after going 7-0 with a 1.91 ERA in 11 starts at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Severino was very impressive this spring, with his willingness to attack hitters with confidence.
His arsenal is vast, and he will throw his heater right at guys. He can be dangerous once he gets ahead in counts, and with a surging offense that has been hitting the crap out of the ball, this could be a very easy debut.
Take the Yanks on the Run Line!
2* YANKEES -1.5