Brandon Shively
Washington Nationals -135
I like the Nationals here again tonight. It wasn't pretty last night, but they pulled out the win, and that's all we needed. Tonight they will have Gio on the mound and the Nats are 7-1 in his 8 home starts this season. He has a 2.50 ERA and I think we can count on the veteran tonight. Gio talked about his last start vs. the Mets, "I have to go deep in the game. I kept falling behind every hitter. No excuses. This is on me. I should have gone deeper in the game and should have given us a chance." ...I think he does that tonight. He has faced 7 different National League teams at home this season and has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of these starts. The Nationals as a team know that the Mets are surging as well and there is a sense of urgency to win. They jumped out to a early 3-0 lead last night and I liked what I saw from the offense. I like Escobar betting leadoff and putting Rendon 2nd. He is 10-for-22 this season vs. the Diamondbacks. Bryce Harper is 6-for-17 vs. them with 4 walks. I think we see enough runs scored in this game to protect Gio Gonzalez and we can count on Storen and/or Papelbon to seal the deal.
Arizona will counter with Delarosa who has a 5.14 road ERA this season. He has some terrible starts on the road this season ( 4 ER @Houston, 4 ER @Mets, 9 ER @Col, 4 ER @Milw, 5 ER @LAD) I will also note that he gave up 8 homeruns in July and for the season has given up 15 HR's on the road. (Gonzalez has only given up 5 HR's all season long)
Paul Goldschmidt is slumping also currently as he is 0-for-15 for the month of August. He struck out 4 times last night and when this guy is slumping, the whole Arizona team slumps.
Gio is 4-0 in his 4 career team starts vs. Arizona (2-0 at home). He is 2-0 at home this season when a home favorite of -150+ as well. Dating back to last season in Delarosa's last 9 starts as a road dog of +125 or greater, the opposing team has scored at least 4 or more runs. Let's take Washington tonight as they are 5-0 in Gio's L5 starts during game 3 of a series and are 13-1 in his L14 Wednesday starts.
Minnesota Twins +165
I want to take another shot with the Twins tonight as a 2:1 underdog. We missed with them last night as the offense didn't score enough runs for us. I think they have a much better chance tonight facing Hutchison as the Twins are 10-for-30 combined vs. him. Dozier is 4-for-6 with 3 doubles and he is the leadoff hitter. I think we see him reach base in this game and the rest of the offense will follow. Hutchison gets the nod for Toronto and I want to note his weaknesses: (1) A 1.50 WHIP on the season (2) A 6.93 ERA in 5 starts in July (3) He gave up 36 hits in 24.2 IP in July (4) He has not made it past the 6th inning in his L11 starts (4) He faced the Twins earlier this season and gave up 7 hits and 4 ER in 5.1 IP (5) The #1-#5 hitters are hitting .344 vs. him on the season. (6) Opposing batters are hitting .333 vs. him with RISP.
This is more than enough reasons for me to give him a fade tonight. I know the Toronto lineup can be lethal, but I think the Twins starter tonight, Tyler Duffey, has an advantage. I say this because this is his MLB debut and Toronto has never faced this guy. Duffey has been great in the minors this year with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. In 132IP, he has only given up 1 HR this season. He got the call up to the Big Leagues 2 days so he has had a few days to let it all soak in. It's not like he just got called up today, so I think he will settle in just fine.
I will also note that Toronto has 16 blown saves this season and only have a 53% save rate at home. I don't know if this game will come down to it, but I don't expect Hutchison to go deep in this game based on recent history. Toronto also has a 3 game series coming up vs. the Yankees which is huge for them and this could be a 'look-ahead' game for the Blue Jays also. While Toronto is on a 3 game winning streak, they haven't won 4 straight since June 14th. While over 70% of the 'public' is on Toronto tonight, this is a great spot to fade the public and for us to make a BIG profit with the Twins as a 2:1 underdog.