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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August 5,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Colorado (59-47) at Philadelphia (59-45)

A battle of southpaws is on tap at Citizens Bank Park, as the Rockies’ Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA) is scheduled to match up against J.A. Happ (7-2, 2.97) and the Phillies in the middle game of a three-game series.

The Rockies pounded out an 8-3 victory on Tuesday and they’ve now won five in a row – all by multiple runs – after starting their road trip with three straight losses to the Mets by the combined score of 18-3. Colorado, which leads the N.L. Wild-Card race, is on surges of 39-15 overall, 21-8 on the road and 15-6 against teams with a winning record. However, the Rockies have dropped four of six to lefty starters.

Philadelphia has lost three in a row and five of its last six. Still, the defending champs are on positive streaks of 20-8 overall, 14-4 at home, 6-0 in the second game of a series, 6-2 versus left-handed starters and 15-6 when facing lefties at home. On the downside, the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six against the N.L. West and 1-5 in their last six on Wednesday.

The Rockies’ victory Tuesday was a rare one, as the Phillies had taken seven of the previous eight series clashes dating to the start of last season.

Colorado has won seven straight games behind De La Rosa overall and four straight on the road, and the lefty has delivered a quality start in his last six trips to the mound, posting a sensational 2.20 ERA during this stretch. On Thursday at the Mets, De La Rosa gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 victory, improving to 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA in nine road starts (2-0, 2.92 ERA last two on the road).

Happ is coming off consecutive defeats to the Cardinals (8-1 at home) and DBacks (4-0 on the road), giving up a combined seven runs on 13 hits in 12 innings. Those were his first two losses of the season and his first defeats since losing his major-league debut on June 30, 2007. Including the five-run, six-inning blowout against St. Louis, Happ is 3-1 with a 4.47 ERA in 13 appearances (six starts) at Citizens Bank this year.

De La Rosa has faced the Phillies five times (three starts) and is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA, including an 8-4 home loss on April 11 when he gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Happ’s history against Colorado is limited to one relief appearance, and he pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings.

The over is 3-1 in De La Rosa’s last four starts overall and 3-0 in his three career starts against Philadelphia. However, with Happ on the hill, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 13-3-1 overall (6-0 last six) and 7-2 at home (3-0 last three).

These clubs have been involved in shootouts lately, as the “over” is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 clashes in Philadelphia (playoffs included). The “over” is also 5-1 in the Phillies’ last five at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER

Boston (62-43) at Tampa Bay (59-48)

The Red Sox and Rays conclude a brief two-game series at Tropicana Field, with Boston sending veteran Brad Penny (7-5, 5.07 ERA) to the hill opposite Tampa Bay phenom David Price (4-4, 5.10).

In Tuesday’s series opener, slugger Evan Longoria blasted a two-run homer – his second of the game – with two outs in the bottom 13th inning to lift Tampa Bay to a 4-2 victory. The Rays have followed a 1-3 slump by taking four of their last five (all at home), and they’re on further upticks of 92-38 at Tropicana Field going back to 2008 and 41-15 in the second game of a series.

Not only did Boston have its four-game winning streak halted in brutal fashion last night, but its offense was held down after averaging 8.3 runs in its previous seven games. Still the Red Sox remain on runs of 19-8 against A.L. East rivals, 6-2 on Wednesday and 12-5 in the second game of a series, but they’ve now lost 28 of their last 40 games played on artificial turf.

Tampa Bay holds a 7-4 lead in the season series with Boston, though the teams have alternated wins and losses in the last seven contests. Going back to last September – and including the A.L. Championship Series between the clubs – the Red Sox have lost eight of their last 11 at Tropicana Field, going 1-4 this year.

The Red Sox are 1-5 in Penny’s last six starts, including Wednesday’s 8-6 home loss to the A’s in which the right-hander surrendered seven runs, seven hits and four walks in five innings. Penny is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in his last three starts and he’s 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA in nine road outings this season, with the Red Sox going 3-6.

Penny faced the Rays twice in a five-day span in early May, giving up three runs in six innings of a 5-3 road loss, then allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-3 home victory. He’s 2-3 with a 5.06 ERA in six appearances (five starts) versus Tampa Bay.

Price is coming off one of his better outings of the season, as he limited the Royals to a run on five hits over seven innings en route to an 8-2 home victory. Price has given up a single run in each of his last three home starts, going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. For the season, he’s 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in six home starts this year, with Tampa winning five of those contests.

Tonight marks Price’s first career start against the Red Sox. However, the rookie lefty got the final out for Tampa Bay in Game 7 of the ALCS against Boston last year and ended up pitching 2 1/3 hitless innings in that series.

Boston is on “under” runs of 8-2 on the road, 7-2-1 against the A.L. East, 6-2 against left-handed starters, 8-3 with Penny on the mound, 5-2 with Penny working on the road and 4-0 when Penny faces divisional foes. Similarly, Tampa Bay is riding “under” streaks of 39-17-2 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 26-8-2 versus right-handed starters, 5-1 on Wednesday, 12-3 in divisional play and 14-3 against winning teams. Finally, the under is 8-4-1 in the last 13 meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 6:50 am
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DUNKEL

NY Yankees at Toronto
The Yankees look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is just 3-7 in its last 10 games as an underdog. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120).

Game 901-902: St. Louis at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.364; NY Mets (Niese) 16.572
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 903-904: San Francisco at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Martinez) 15.251; Houston (Moehler) 15.621
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-125); Over

Game 905-906: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 13.980; San Diego (Gaudin) 14.401
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Over

Game 907-908: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vandenhurk) 15.764; Washington (Lannan) 14.880
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over

Game 909-910: Arizona at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 16.761; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 12.949
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over

Game 911-912: Colorado at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.819; Philadelphia (Happ) 15.565
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-155); Over

Game 913-914: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 15.898; Cincinnati (Lehr) 12.849
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 3; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); Under

Game 915-916: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.452; LA Dodgers (Schmidt) 16.005
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mitre) 16.145; Toronto (Rzepczynski) 15.489
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under

Game 919-920: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 16.073; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Under

Game 921-922: Baltimore at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.256; Detroit (Jackson) 15.098
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Over

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 16.291; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.130
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over

Game 925-926: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (French) 14.584; Kansas City (Davies) 13.568
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 17.432; White Sox (Floyd) 16.325
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over

Game 929-930: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 15.007; Oakland (Reinke) 14.204
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Under

WNBA

Chicago at Indiana
The Fever look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Indiana is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2).

Game 651-652: Chicago at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 105.219; Indiana 120.117
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 15; 153 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 152
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-7 1/2); Over

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 6:51 am
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Cajun Sports

Arizona D-Backs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Arizona took Game One of their three-game series versus Pittsburgh 6 to 0 on Tuesday night. The Diamondbacks have struggled on the highway this season posting a record of 47-59 SU for -14.1 Units averaging 4.2 runs per game with a batting average of only .230. Pittsburgh has been decent at home this season going 28-21 SU for +6.8 Units averaging 4.7 runs per game with a batting average of .283.

The Diamondbacks will send left-hander Doug Davis to the bump with his 5-10 record and ERA of 3.73 this season. Davis has also found the going tough on the road with a record of 2-4 and an ERA of 4.29. Over his last three outings he has only averaged 4.8 innings per start with 13 bases on balls which is not a particularly good sign when your bullpen has an ERA of 4.55 on the road this season along with a WHIP of 1.562.

His lone win over that span came against this Pirates team and their starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf. Davis pitched 6 innings giving up no earned runs with five hits three walks and eight strikeouts in a 7 to 0 win back on July 25th. In that game Ohlendorf didn’t pitch that poorly himself he went 6 innings giving up two earned runs on six hits two walks and two strikeouts in the loss.
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Arizona is 5-12 overall when Davis takes the bump their last seventeen and 6-18 when he starts on the road. National League Central opponents have given the Diamondbacks and Davis trouble on the highway since 1997 going 1-11 SU for -9.9 Units.

Pittsburgh is 5-0 their last five when facing a left-handed starter and 6-0 when Ohlendorf starts at home. Ohlendorf is 7-2 (team 9-2) with an ERA of 3.34 at PNC Park this season and 2-1 his last three outings with an ERA of 3.12.

We expect the Pirates to bounce back from their Game One loss and for Ohlendorf to give us a quality start which should be enough to grab a Game Two victory and even this series at a game apiece. Its possible we could see the line move against us here and the Pirates become the favorites but we will still back the host even if we have to lay a short number. Take the Pirates as they get a win on Wednesday night at PNC Park.
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Graded Selection: 2* Pittsburgh Pirates 5 Arizona Diamondbacks 3

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:04 am
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Craig Trapp
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St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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The NYM are heading in the wrong direction in the last 7 games losing 5 of the 7. Yesterday they even lost with there ace Santana on the mound. The Cardinals lineup is healthy and putting up runs at a breakneck rate, yesterday scoring 12 runs. On the mound for STL is Lohse who is making his 5th start since coming back from the Disabled list. Each game he has been much better and last game he went 6 innings only allowing 1 run and 1 walk against the best team in the NL LA Dodgers. Today he will have no problem with the banged up NYM. The Mets don't have any consistent players that can produce on an everyday basis. On the other side the Cards have been great since getting Holiday and Derosa to help out with King Albert. The Mets have starter Niese who has had trouble since coming to start 4 games ago. He has given up 12 runs in 24 innings since coming up to the big leagues. Not good news for Mets fans as STL can really score runs. This one will not be close. SCORE STL 8 - NYM 3

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:04 am
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Brad Diamnd Sports
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Play: Atlanta over San Diego
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Despite losing on Monday night the Braves still own the Padres in this series winning the last 18 of 25 games and 8 of 12 in San Diego. The Padres are 1-5 in the last 6 home starts with RHP Gaudin and 2-10 in games versus the National League east. Finally, we find the suffering Padres at 13-38 on Wednesday's.

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:07 am
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Red Dog Sports
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Boston at Tampa Bay
Play: Over 9.5
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Brad Penny has an ERA of 7.16 in his last 3 starts while David Price has an ERA of 6.19 in that span. The Red Sox have played over 21-8-1 in their last 30 games on Wednesdays. Look for a high score on Wednesday that goes over the total.

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:07 am
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Tom Freese
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Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Texas Rangers
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Texas starter Vincente Padilla has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Texas is 11-5 their last 16 games overall. The Rangers are 25-12 their last 37 games vs. AL West teams and they are 24-8 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Oakland starter Dallas Braden has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Oakland is 2-7 off a win. The Athletics are 5-18 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 3-7 vs. Vincente Padilla. PLAY ON TEXAS +

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:08 am
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Marc Lawrence
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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays conclude their two-game series with the Yankees when Marc Rzepczynski takes on Sergio Mitre north of the border tonight. While Rzepczynski has earned only one win this season it did come at home against Boston. Meanwhile, Mitre has lasted an average 4 2/3 innings over each of his last eleven starts while compiling a 7.94 ERA in those games. He also sports a sky-high 8.70 ERA in his last seven road starts. With the Pinstripes looking dead ahead to the start of a huge four-game series with the Red Sox at Yankees Stadium starting tomorrow night, look for the Jays to even out this series here tonight.

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:09 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Under 9
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The Cubs have R.Harden going tonight against the struggling Cincy Reds.Harden has gone under in 6 of his 7 road starts this year and has a 2.19 road era and 2.00 overall in his last 23 starts.In his last 3 starts vs the Reds Harden has allowed 3 runs and 6 hits in 19 innings of work.In the month of August is when R.Harden really excels with a 5-0 record and 1.82 era.The Reds have rookie Justin Lehr going tonight and he let the butterflies loose in his first start allowing 3 runs in 5 respectable innings against Colorado,he did have a lot of walks in that one.However I expect he will improve off that start.In the series 13 of the 17 games in Cincinnati have gone under the total.The Reds have gone under in 6 of 7 as a home dog in this range and are hitting under .200 over the last 7 games,while scoring under 3 runs per game.The Cubs have gone under in 10 14 games on Wednesday nights and 7 of 10 vs less than 500 teams in the second half.On

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:10 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Colorado at PHILADELPHIA

Picked up an easy win Tuesday with the Braves on the run line as my complimentary selection, making it six victories in my last nine plays! Let's keep things rolling with another winner today!

I understand that Rockies left-hander Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA) has won seven consecutive starts. I also realize that the Phillies have lost five of their last six.

However, De La Rosa has been rocked in three career starts vs. Philadelphia, going 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA. He gave up five runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings in an 8-4 loss to the Phillies on April 11.

De La Rosa allowed seven runs (six earned) in 3 2/3 innings in his only career start at Citizens Bank Park.

Phillies starter J.A. Happ (7-2, 2.97) can finally relax and just pitch surviving a possible trade to Toronto in a proposed deal for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. He is only 1-2 in his last three starts, but his ERA is a respectable 3.32 in those outings.

The rookie left-hander has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, and gave up two runs and three hits in six innings Wednesday against Arizona.

The Phillies have been struggling overall, but they are 14-4 in their last 18 home games, and they are 7-2 in their last nine meetings with the Rockies. Philly also is 6-2 in their last eight games against southpaws.

With Shane Victorino being 3-for-6 against De La Rosa, and Jimmy Rollins 3-for-7 off the Colorado lefty, I see De La Rosa's run coming to an end today. Take the Phillies on the run line.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA -1 1/2

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:12 am
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Matt Rivers

For Wednesday take the Jays at home.

I can't say that backing Mark Rzepcynski against Alex Rodriguez and the big bad New York Yankees is exactly a mismatch in our favor but Sergio Mitre is a joke and to be able to go against him up North with a Toronto offense that really is pretty darn good makes me all about the Jays today.

The New York righthander may be making his last start with New York as he has been absolutely dreadful in Pinstripes. He was just drilled at US Cellular last time out by the White Sox and no longer resembles the decent enough sinkerballer who was on the Marlins. Mitre is as bad as any hurler in the bigs right now and to not really have to lay much with Hill, Lind, Rios, Wells and Overbay is fine with me.

Of course the Bombers can win any game as they are that good with Rodriguez, Teixeira, Jeter, Matsui, Damon and others swinging the sticks but in the end fading Mitre right now is a flat out smart strategy and one that I will follow for sure today.

Toronto will plate at least five runs in this game and more than likely better than that. If that's not good enough then so be it but I'll take my chances.

2♦ Blue Jays

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:12 am
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LT Profits

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Under is now 7-2-1 in the last 10 Arizona Diamondbacks games overall, as well as 9-4-1 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and we look for both of those patterns tonight.

Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf has actually pitcher very well here at home this season, where he is 7.2 despite pitching for a losing team with a nice 3.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 11 home starts. He also pitched well vs. these Diamondbacks in the desert on July 25, allowing only two earned on six hits in six innings before the bullpen blew up in a 7-0 loss. He is facing an Arizona lineup that is batting just .232 on the road this year.
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Doug Davis gets the start for the Diamondbacks, making this a pitching rematch from that 7-0 game 10 days ago, and he was masterful vs. the Pirates that day, allowing five hits in six scoreless innings. This masked the third time in his last four starts vs. Pittsburgh that Davis allowed two runs or less. He is now facing a Pirates lineup full of minor leaguers, as even though he faced the Bucs just 10 days ago, Pittsburgh has traded away some more starters since then.

Do not expect many fireworks at PNC Park tonight.
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Pick: Diamondbacks/Pirates Under 8.5

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:53 am
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Big Al
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Tex Rangers vs. Oak A`s
Play: Tex Rangers
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Vicente Padilla has been very effective for Texas so far this season, and the only thing slowing down the veteran southpaw lately has been a bout of the swine flu. But Padilla has recovered and is ready to add to his nine quality starts (in 17 outings) he's already had for this team this season. Padilla has a 7-3 record with a 3.69 ERA over his last 12 starts and is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in seven starts on the road this season. Texas was cruising on Monday night and looked to shut out this team when Oakland scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth off of replacement closer CJ Wilson to win 3-2. Don't expect a repeat. Look for Padilla to outduel Reineke in Oakland tonight. Take the Rangers.

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 7:54 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline

NY Yankees at TORONTO

Tampa Bay our comp play winner last night, as we are now 10-3-1 the last 2 weeks with our FREE plays!

Total play tonight at the Rogers Centre, as we think if the Yankees and Blue Jays can combine for 8 runs last night off of a couple of quality pitchers in Andy Pettitte, and Roy Halladay, the teams will be able to get a ton of runs off of Sergio Mitre, and Marc Rzepcyznski.

Mitre has allowed 12 runs over his last 14 innings of work, while Rzepcyznski hasn't been awful, but has allowed 5 runs over his last 9 innings of work.

It is no secret the Yankees have some bats in their lineup, and both teams are on 3-0-1 OVER runs their last 4 games.

Our feeling is the bats will be a-boppin' in this Wednesday nighter, as both bullpens get extended.

Play on the OVER north of the border this evening.

5♦ OVER

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 8:09 am
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Karl Garrett

Boston at TAMPA BAY -120

Comp play winner from the G-Man as Colorado-Philly squeezed OVER the total last night. Now 18-9 my last 27 comp play selections.

Talk about "snake-bit", it appears the tables have finally turned in the Boston-Tampa rivalry.

After years of domination by the BoSox, Tampa is more than pulled their weight in this series, especially at Tropicana Field where the Rays are now 12-2 versus the Red Sox during the regular season. Included is a 4-1 mark this year, and tonight the Rays will move that number to 5-1.

Tampa Bay starter David Price is 0-3 with an over 8 ERA on the road this year, but at home, Price is a solid 4-1, with a 2.67 ERA.

His counterpart Brad Penny was just shelled for 7 runs in 5 innings, in a home loss to Oakland. For the season, Penny sports an over 5 ERA, and the G-Man just doesn't see Penny being the "stopper" tonight against a Tampa team that is still trailing Boston in the standings.

G-Man on the Rays to take care of business once again at home where they are a mighty 35-18 this year.

3♦ TAMPA BAY

 
Posted : August 5, 2009 8:10 am
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