Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105
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I'll back the Tigers at home in this bounce back spot behind Jackson, who is 4-1 (7-2 against the money line) with a 2.86 ERA at home this season. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 in Jackson's last 6 home starts. The Tigers are also 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 17-6 in their last 23 home games overall. The Orioles are just 18-46 in their last 64 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter, and 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are just 6-13 in Guthrie's last 19 starts and 6-18 in his last 24 starts during game 3 of a series. Bet the Tigers in this bounce back spot.
Bob Harvey
St Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
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St. Louis' Albert Pujols has the Mets' number after leading the Redbirds past New York once again last night. Cash the Cardinals this afternoon in the series finale.
Albert Pujols and the Cards look to sweep their brief two-game series from the Mets after Pujols' late game heroics gave St. Louis the win in last night’s series opener.
Tony La RussaPrince Albert slugged two home runs, including a go ahead grand slam in the top of the 12th, leading St. Louis to a 12-7 victory. It was Pujols' fifth slam of the year equaling the NL record set by Ernie Banks in 1955. He’s now one back of Don Mattingly and Travis Hafner for the MLB record for slams in a season. The slam was also the 11th in Pujols' St. Louis career to set a franchise mark.
With just under two months of the season remaining, Pujols is well on his way to another MVP award. He’s hitting .321 and leads the majors in homers with 36 and RBI with 97. He’s also thriving on Mets pitching hitting .488 with six homers and 18 RBI in the last 10 series meetings.
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Kyle Lohse goes to the hill for the Cardinals bringing with him a record of 4-6 and an ERA of 4.14. Lohse is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.50 since coming off the disabled list but he’s been a victim of poor run support getting three runs or less in each outing. Perhaps with Pujols blasting his way out of a mini-slump, Lohse could see his fortunes change today.
The Mets, who have lost five of their last six, will send rookie Jonathon Niese to the mound. He’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and will be making his first career start against the Redbirds. New York, with nine players on the disabled list, will be without 2B Luis Castillo who suffered a sprained ankle in a freak dugout injury on Tuesday night.
The Mets are now six-games under .500 and 10 games behind the first-place Phillies. It looks for all appearances that with all of the injuries and the front office turmoil that New York is just trying to stay afloat, let alone compete for a division title. By the time they get some or any of their key players off the disabled list it will be will be much too late. The Mets have that “wait until next year” look about them.
This is truly an ideal spot to play the Cardinals. While I’m not sold on Lohse, the Cards still have plenty going for them. They’re in a heated battle for the NL Central lead with the Cubs and they’ve got a pretty formidable middle of the lineup now with Matt Holliday batting behind Pujols. Meanwhile the Mets after suffering a demoralizing loss on Tuesday night, should be ripe for the picking today.
Take the Cardinals and enjoy a “matinee payday.”
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Pick: Cardinals -131
Vernon Croy
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Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Minnesota Twins
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting solid value here Wednesday night with the Twins. The Indians are just 1-6 in their last 7 home games when facing a lefty starter and they are just 1-9 in Aaron Laffey's (4-3, 4.08) last 10 starts as an underdog. The Indians are just 8-17 in their last 25 games after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game and the Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games when facing a lefty starter. The Twins are 21-12 against division opponents this season while hitting .283 as a team and the Indians are just 18-25 against division opponents this season. Take the Minnesota Twins as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.
Freddy Wills
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Chicago Cubs-1.5
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Today we go with the Cubs with Harden on the mound on the road! I mentioned in my hot and cold pitching report today how dominant he has been on the road and against the Reds. Harden with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts against the Reds and he owns a 2.19 ERA on the road this year. He has been throwing the ball hard and was unhittable in his last appearance 1 start ago against the Reds where he went 6IP gave up just 1H and 1ER. I watched this game and had this game marked on my calendar as a game to check out. Harden has a 2.48 ERA over his last 5 starts overall and he'll face the Reds who have lost 8 straight and have a .188 avg in their last 10 vs. RHP. Oh may I add the Reds collectively have a .118 avg and that's counting Jay Bruce who is on the DL take him out of the picture and they have just a .097 average. Cubs will face Justin Lehr a journey man minor leagure who at 32 made his first start last week against the Rockies. Lehr was a reliver in 2006 where he posted a 8.62 ERA. Many thought they would never hear from him again, but he has put up solid numbers in the minors and here he is. Just showing you how large the jump is from AAA to the majors is. He won't be up long as he threw just 52 strikes in 97 pitches walking 6 batters and in 5 IP against the Rockies. He was lucky to escape with 3ER on 4H. Don't expect the same luck here as he'll most likely have a "what can I lose attitude" against the Cubs by throwing the ball over the plate and the Cubs will make him pay! Favorite stat: The Reds have lost 76.6% of their home losses by more than 1 run including 7 of their last 8 on this current home stand.
Tony George
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Cubs -1.5
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Although the Cubs bats are not near as active as they are at home, the Reds bats are silent and provide no run support here, as a matter of fact the offense for the Reds is deplorable, batting just .188 against right handers and .158 against southpaws the last 10 games, and they have dropped 8 staright at home. Have they thrown it in early? Looks like it to me!
Yanks and Blue Jays Over 9.5
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The Yanks beat up Roy Halladay last night and the last 4 series games have either went Over or pushed between these 2 teams. Both start weak pitchers tonight and both bullpens have over a 5 ERA their last outings, with the Yanks having a 8.06 era. New York hits lefties well and they face another southpaw tonight who will get lit up.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
305 - 199 run 60 % 52-28 run here
WED Chi Cubs
8)
Yankee Capper
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Toronto Blue Jays +110
Florida Marlins +110
Philadelphia Phillies -150
Texas Rangers -115
Rocketman
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Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Florida Marlins
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Florida is 55-51 on the season while Washington comes in with a 35-72 record this year. Washington is 35-94 last 3 years when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 11-32 against division opponents this year. Washington is 23-53 at night this year. Washington is 14-41 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Florida bullpen has a 2.39 ERA on the road this year. Washington bullpen has a 5.21 ERA in all games this year. Rick Vandenhurk is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA overall this year, 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA on the road and 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA his last 3 starts. Florida is 9-1 overall vs Washington this year. Lannan is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA overall vs Florida since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!
LARRY NESS
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Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals
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The Nationals (35-72) owns MLB's worst record but one must take notice of them when John Lannan is pitching at home. Lannan has struggled on the road with a 5.62 ERA but the young lefty has made 12 starts in Nationals Park, never ONCE allowing more than three ERs! He's allowed two ERs or fewer EIGHT times and sports a home ERA of 1.91. However, he's only managed four wins in those 12 starts (saddled with only one loss, though) because pitching for Washington is no easy task (Nationals are 6-6 in the 12 games). Washington used a six-run eighth-inning rally to beat the Marlins last night (6-4), which snapped a 10-game losing streak to Florida. Although the Nationals have the worst record in the majors, they’ve won three in a row and are a respectable 9-6 since losing six straight from July 12-20. Washington has won four in a row twice this season (most recently July 25-28) and behind Lannan, I'll back them here. The Marlins counter with Rick VandenHurk, who'll be making his fourth start since being recalled from Triple-A on July 20. VandenHurk was 4-6 with a 6.83 ERA in 17 starts back in 2007 (Marlins went 6-11) and made just four starts in 2008 (1-1 with a 7.71 ERA / Marlins were 2-2). He's pitched fairly well in his three starts since late July(2.65 ERA) but I'm not convinced. Take the Nats, as they make to four straight wins.
Lenny Del Genio
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Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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Indians are awful and we don't like their chances at all in this series. They are a horrid 3-16 when seeking revenge for BB losses by 6 runs or more while Minnesota is 10-1 after scoring double digit runs this season. Last two times these teams have played, the Twins have outscored the Tribe 21-4. Since 1997, after allowing one run or less in a division win, Minnesota is 79-49. Take Minnesota.
Ben Burns
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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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After winning with Tommy Hanson a couple of times to begin his career, I successfully played against the Braves' star rookie two starts ago - he was beaten 4-0 by the Brewers. I didn't play Hanson's last start but he lost again, this time falling 5-0 to the Dodgers. This should be a good spot for him to bounce back and return to his winning ways. Note that Hanson is 2-0 with a 2.52 ERA in four daytime starts. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .157 against him in those games.
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One would assume that all the Padres' pitchers prefer to pitch at Petco Park than on the road. That hasn't been the case for Chad Gaudin though. He's been "ok" (barely) on the road but has been downright awful here at home. In eight home games, seven of them starts, he's gone 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA and a terrible 1.875 WHIP. Consider Atlanta
John Ryan
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they take on Tampa Bay in a very important divisional matchup and can be seen on ESPN TV set to start at 7:08 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-21 making 25.4 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a tired bullpen after 2 straight games throwing 5+ innings facing an opponent after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings. Boston is a solid 22-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season; 22-7 (+14.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better this season. Boston starter Brad Penny is a perfect 6-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Take Boston.
MTI Sports
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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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The Padres scored first yesterday and the game was tied at two after the fourth inning. The Braves scored the last seven runs of the game to win 9-2, outhitting the Padres 17-4. Atlanta has been a terrible investment after a big win. The Braves are a cash-flushing 3-21 as a road favorite after a 5+ run win ? including 0-9 their last nine. Yikes.
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Moreover, THIS season the Braves are 0-10 on the road after a win in which they had at least a dozen hits (team=Braves and 2009<=season and A and 12<=p:hits and p:W), losing by an average of 3.0 rpg.
GoodFella
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Cubs -1.5
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Harden has flat out dominated the Reds and the Reds are a joke of a MLB team right now, and I expect Harden to pitch very well and dominate the Reds, as Harden has been a beast on the road (4-1 2.19 ERA) this season & in his L/3 starts (1-0, 2.00 ERA, 0.833 WHIP). Cincy is just a disaster right now having lost 7 straight games & facing a guy who is in their heads does not bode well for them tonight. Key Reds vs Harden career wise: Taveras (1-5) Votto (1-7, HR) Phillips (0-8) Rolen (0-6) Nix (3-17 2B).
Spartan
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
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I am suggesting a wager on the Rays to continue their hot hand against the visiting Red Sox. Last night was a dramatic and emotional win for the Rays as they continue to play strong second half ball. I like the fact that David Price is taking the ball today as his record overall might not stand out but I've seen this kid perform much stronger at home. When going in Tampa David is 4-1 with a strong 2.67 era. To oppose him Terry Francona is turning to veteran Brad Penny and frankly Penny has not looked as dominating as he has in the past. Last time out he got lit up for 7 earned runs and labored through 100 pitches in only 5 frames. Obviously there is more to capping a game than the pitchers but it is the first place you look and with the way the Rays have played in the past vs the Red Sox at home and Price's past performance there, I like our chances here guys with the home boys!