Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday August, 8

Marc Lawrence

Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Prediction: New York Mets

Miami meets the Mets in New York in Game Two of this three-game series Wednesday night where Chris Young matches serves with Nate Eovaldi at Citi Field. Young toes the slab winless in his last four home team starts despite posting a 3.33 ERA in those efforts. Meanwhile, Eovaldi enters 2-5 in his road team starts this season with a 5.40 ERA. With Young 3-0 with a microscopic 0.47 ERA in his career team starts against the Marlins, and Miami just 3-13 in their last 16 games away from South Beach, look for the Fish to prove to be the perfect elixir for Young's home woes here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: New York Yankees

The Yankees fit a nice system that has cashed 22 of 29 times and plays on certain road favorites off a 1 run road favored loss while scoring 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent off a 1 run home if they scored 5 or more runs. Detroit has taken the first 2 of this 4 game set. The Yankees will look to get one back and put an end to the Tigers win streak. They will do so with their horse. C.C. Sabathia takes the mound knowing he already has 2 solid efforts this season vs Detroit, winning both starts while allowing 5 runs in 15 innings. The Yankees have won 7 of Sabathias 10 road starts, while averaging 5 runs per game the past week. Detroit counters with Annibal Sanchez who has an elevated 4.84 home era this season. Look for the Yankees to get one back tonight.

Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are 8-3 in their last 11 games. Kevin Millwood has been a good pickup for the Mariners with a 3.26 ERA his last three starts. He's 9-3 all time against the Orioles and is matched up against slumping Tommy Hunter (4-7, 5.55 ERA), who is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA his last three starts. The Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 1-4 in Hunter's last 5 starts. Play the Mariners.

Dave Cokin

San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: San Francisco Giants

That Cardinals home express finally got slowed down Tuesday night, and the Redbirds are in tough tonight against Ryan Vogelsong. Joe Kelly has been better than I expected, but I have to back the Giants here as underdogs.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +108 over CLEVELAND

The Indians are about as tight as a team can get right now. With an 11-game losing streak on the line and with just three wins in 13 attempts at home against left-handed starters, one has to wonder how the bleeding will stop here.

Justin Masterson is also reeling. His control has fallen off the charts. He’s walked 62 batters in 111 innings. He’s been knocked around over his last four starts with an 8.44 ERA. He's been especially bad in his last two, giving up a career-high 10 runs over 5.2 innings during a 12-5 loss at Minnesota on July 28, then surrendering seven runs and a season-worst 10 hits over four innings Friday in a 10-2 loss in Detroit.

Conversely, the Twins are hot. They’ve won five of six and they’ve scored more runs since the all-star break than any team in the majors. Brian Duensing is a lefty and the Indians are hitting .225 against southpaws overall and a meager .209 at their own park. Duensing rarely walks anyone, he has a groundball bias profile and that’s certainly enough to back him and the Twinkies against a team that can’t get out of its own way.

TAMPA BAY -1½ +166 over Toronto

The Rays offense is one that makes them a big risk spotting 1½-runs but the situation, the payoff and the state of the Blue Jays makes them worthy of it here.

Toronto has scored three runs or less in seven of their past nine games. Against the Rays this season, they’ve lost seven of nine. They rarely put up a crooked number at this venue and with a makeshift line-up against a highly undervalued starter, they’re unlikely to put up many here either.

Carlos Villanueva has been off for seven days after dealing with some personal issues back in the Dominican. He was showing signs of laboring in his last two starts with 6 runs allowed in 11 innings and it’s anyone’s guess as to his state of mind. Villanueva is a reliever turned starter who was forced into this role due to the numerous injuries to the Jays rotation. Villanueva’s history against this team doesn’t instil much confidence either. In six appearances (1 start) against the Rays, he has given up 16 earned runs and six bombs in just 8.1 innings. Ouch.

Alex Cobb has a 4.66 ERA but that number will shrink. He has an elite 58% groundball rate, he has 9 k’s and one walk over his past 14 innings and none of the current Blue Jays has ever faced him before. Cobb pitches in the shadows of the majors’ best rotations and as a result, he remains one of the most undervalued second half sleepers.

Joe Gavazzi

Arizona D-Backs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

When the Pirates blew a 4-3 lead last night it was the first time they’ve lost in 54 games when leading after 7 innings. Look for the bounce back tonight off that embarrassing performance by the best bullpen in baseball! Expect a huge performance from Correia as well who was removed from the rotation with the addition of Wandy Rod. This came despite the fact that KC was 6-0 with a 3.89 ERA in his previous 7 starts. Kennedy is simply not the pitcher of last season when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA. This year his ERA has ballooned to 4.15 with Arizona winning just 5/12 of his road starts. With Pittsburgh continuing to trail Cincinnati by 3 games for the division lead and Atlanta by ½ game for the first Wild Card, expect full motivation from the team with the best home record in the league at 34-17! Must take this homedog value with the Bucs to bounce back!

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox -1½

When the White Sox lost 5-2 to Kansas City last night it dropped their recent home record to 13-3 and their recent overall record to 10-4; combined with Detroit’s win they still hold a ½ game division lead over the Tigers. Look for the Bounce Back Blow out tonight in this pitching mismatch against the Royals that enter on an 11-24 slide! Guthrie is among the worst in MLB. He has lost 9 consecutive decisions in going 3-12 with a 6.56 ERA that includes 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA since being traded from Colorado to KC. In his last 3 outings versus CWS he has a 6.10 ERA. Quintana was given extra rest to make sure he was fresh down the stretch. He has easily pitched his best baseball from this mound! CWS has won 4/5 of his home starts where he has a 2.36 ERA. Run Line Players take note! CWS has won 26/30 home victories (87%) by 2 or more runs! That’s good enough for me; how ‘bout you?!

Bryan Power

Washington vs. Houston
Pick: Washington -1.5

Those who have been following my free plays know that I've made it a point to consistently play against the Houston Astros. I've won EVERY time (6-0 last two weeks)! While this may seem overly simple; why not? Yesterday's "come from ahead" loss to the Nationals had to be the "tip of the iceberg" as they led for a second straight night only to lose in extra innings. The club has now dropped a shocking 32 of 36 games and is 0-11 in extra inning games in 2012.

To play against the Astros Wednesday, and get any value out of it, I'm going to take the run line as Washington is north of -200 on the money line, despite being the road team. With Gio Gonzalez pitching for the Nats, this seems like no problem. The team has won 16 of his 22 starts (3.34 ERA), including 10 of 12 on the road. After the 1st inning Tuesday, Houston managed only four hits the rest of the game.

The first place Nationals have now won four straight overall and 14 of 19 on the road, including 8-1 last nine. Houston starter Armando Galarraga has not been particularly effective in two starts so far (5.23 ERA & 1.742 WHIP). Go against the Astros again.

Matt Fargo

Seattle vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

The Orioles won in dramatic fashion last night, scoring four runs in the seventh to tie it up and then got the victory in the 14th inning. They have now won four straight games and continue to stay in the hunt in the American League East, trailing the Yankees by just 4.5 games. They have a four-game series at home against Kansas City on deck so this is a great opportunity to keep the run going. Baltimore is the only team in baseball with a winning record that possesses a negative run differential but it has not mattered.

Seattle lost for the third straight day and has dropped four of five following a seven-game winning streak, all of which came at home. The Mariners are now six games under .500 on the road and during their first five games on this roadtrip, they are hitting only .218 and that certainly is not going to get it done. They did manage seven runs last night but prior to that scored only seven runs total in their previous four games. The Mariners are now 61-128 in their last 189 games as road underdogs.

Baltimore's pitching started the season exceptional but it has faltered quite a bit over the last couple months and it is bringing some new blood into the rotation tonight. Steve Johnson will be making his first ever Major League start which is a solid edge against the slumping Mariners offense. Johnson was just 4-8 at AAA Norfolk but he posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP covering 91.1 innings so his pitching has been much better than that record shows.

Seattle counters with Kevin Millwood and his season has been full of ups and downs. He has 10 quality outings in his 21 starts which includes three straight at home however his work on the road has not been strong. Over his last five road starts, he has posted a 6.67 ERA and to no surprise, Seattle has lost all five of those games. Pitching at night has been a chore as well as he is 1-5 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 13 starts under the lights and the Mariners are 0-7 in his last seven starts as an underdog.

Bryan Leonard

Angels / A's Under 7

Zack Greinke takes the mound for the Angels on a getaway day in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Things for Greinke should be starting to settle down now as he's back into his regular routine between starts and starting to get comfortable as a member of the Angels. Following a strange month of July in which he pitched on the 2nd, 7th, 8th, 13th, 24th, and 29th, Greinke will be making his second August start five days after his last outing. Greinke has great career numbers in Oakland with a 3.00 ERA in 13 games, nine starts. Greinke enters this start with a 3.61 ERA on the season, but both SIERA (skill-indactive ERA) and FIP say that Greinke's ERA should be closer to 3. His BABip, which is always higher for strikeout pitchers because less balls are put in play, is nearly 20 points above his career average while his walks and number of home runs allowed are both down from last season.

If anything can slow down the Angels offense, the combination of playing in Oakland and facing a pitcher they've never really seen before could be the recipe. Daniel Straily makes just his second career start at the Major League level but impressed scouts and analysts with his stuff in his debut start against the Blue Jays. Straily was phenomenal in 22 minor league starts with 175 K's in 138.1 innings. He was especially dominant in the hitter-happy Pacific Coast League where he posted a 1.36 ERA in eight starts. As a young kid, Straily will attack this impressive Angels lineup and pitching aggressively is always better than pitching scared.

Bill Miller will be behind the plate and 17 of the 23 games he's been the plate umpire for have gone under the total, including 11 of 16 with totals at 7.5 or less.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Cincinnati -141 over MILWAUKEE: Let's do the old fade Randy Wolf trick here. Randy has been bad this year with a 3-8 mark overall and a 5.57 ERA, while the Brewers have gone just 6-15 in his starts this year. At home he is just 2-5 with a 4-89 ERA, while in his day starts he has gone 0-3 with a 4.46 ERA. The Brewers are just 1-5 in his days starts. Randy has decent numbers vs the Reds, allowed 3 ER's or less in 8 of his last 9 starts vs them, but he has yet to face them this year, and as I said this year he is bad. Mat Latos has really been pitching well of late as he is 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the road his ERA is slightly high at 4.50, but his offense has bailed him out as he is 4-1 in his road starts, while he is a perfect 4-0 with 3.47 ERA in his days starts. The Reds are 5-2 in those starts. Matt faced the Brewers once this year (at home) and he allowed just 1 rin in 9 innings in that game. Milwaukee has taken the first two of the series, but I just can't see the Reds getting swept here. Overall the still have the better offense, they have the much better starter on the mound and the motivation of looking to avoid the sweep will all be too much for the Brewers to handle in this one.

NY Yanks/ Detroit Over 8.5: Google News Play Yes CC is on the mound for the Yanks, but he can be hit on the road as he has a 4.26 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP away from home, compared to a 2.81 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP at home. Detroit's offense has been very good of late and they have upped their home average to 4.96 rpg game, after averaging 6.3 rpg in their last 18 games here. Detroit hitters have hit CC well as they have a .270 average with 9 HR's and 31 RBI's in 215 AB's vs him. Anibal Sanchez will be making just his 3rd start for the Cats and he he has one good and one bad start for them so for, but overall he has not fared well vs the AL this year as he has a 5.45 ERA in 6 starts vs this them. His only good start was his last outing vs a Cleveland team that has been very bad offensively of late. The Yanks offense is always waiting to just explode and that may happen here. The do average 4.7 rpg on the road, including giving CC 6.1 rpg worth of support in his road games. We also have an ump (Bill Welke) behind the plate whose games have averaged 9.55 rpg on the year (20 games) and a couple of pens that have not been that good of late. No way this game shouldn't hit at least 9 runs.

CHICAGO -1.5 (-105) over Kansas City: Do ya hear that sound White Sox fan's? That's the sound of Cats claws right on your heels. Chicago lost last night at home, while Detroit was winning and that has enabled Detroit to pull within a half game of the Sox in the Central and if they keep losing home games to these lesser teams then they will really have no chance of staving off Detroit in the Central. Thank God for the Sox that there is a pitcher named Jeremy Guthrie in the league. The Royals swapped one bad pitcher (Johnathon Sanchez) for another (Jeremy Guthrie), when they made the trade with the Rockies. Guthries has been just as bad for the Royals as he was for Colorado, as he is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his three starts since his return to the AL and KC has lost all three games by 2 runs or more. How about this for some more numbers. Jeremy is 0-6 with an 8.90 ERA in 6 starts vs the AL this year. In those starts he has pitched 30.1 innings and has allowed 30 ER's on 47 hits and 11 walks. Now that's bad and he will be taking on an angry Sox team here, after they were held to just 2 runs in last night's 5-2 loss. Jose Quintana has been solid for the Sox this year, with a 4-1 mark, a 2.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The Sox are 4-1 in his home starts and he has a 2.31 ERA in those starts. KC is just 13-22 and they score just 3.6 rpg off of lerfties on the year and add that to the fact that Jeremy is 0-12 vs the RL in his losses and the fact that that the ox need this one bad and you have a recipe for a very easy win by Chicago tonight.

PITTSBURGH +126 over Arizona: The Pirates have begun to slide a little, but they still are in the thick of the playoff race and I expect them to home a good showing tonight. Last year Kevin Corriea was just horrible at home, but he has changed it around this year as he is 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA at PNC Park this year. Kevin also comes in with a 3-0 mark and a 3.71 ERA in his last 3 starts So he is pitching well right now. Ian Kennedy is also pitching well of late as he is 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his last 4 starts, but he has struggled on the road this year at 4-5 with a 3.62 ERA and the D-Backs are just 5-7 in his road starts. The Offenses are pretty even here as the D-Backs score 3.6 rpg on the road, while Pittsburgh averages just 3.7 rpg at home and the Pitching matchup is pretty even as well, but I feel that Pittsburgh really needs this one more as they would like to build momentum before the Padres come to town and they are 34-17 at home, while Arizona is 26-30 on the road. Look for Pitt to bounce back in this one.

POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (24-8 L32) (33-16 +12.36 UNITS)

Play on all favorites of 110 or higher (Yanks), with a starter that strikes out 5+ batters per start and they average 1.5+ homers per game. This play is 107-43 the last 5 seasons. Play on New York -137 over Detroit.

Play on NL team (San Diego) that hits .250 or worse, with a starter that averages 6.5 innings or more and they are facing a team (Chicago) with a pen ERA of 4.50 or higher. This play is 91-41 since 1997. Play on San Diego -131 over Chicago.

Dave Essler

Washington Nationals -140

Rarely do we play road favorite run lines, but after the long game last night the Astros have even less of a bullpen than they started with. I don't care if Gallarga DOES pitch well and hold Washington to "only a few" because I do not think the Astros will get "any".

Dwayne Bryant

Boston Red Sox +103

Taking Boston as the home dog this afternoon. They've done pretty well against lefties this season, particularly at Fenway. This is Beckett's first start since leaving in the 3rd inning against Detroit on July 31st due to back spasms. So it's been eight days since his last start & he only threw 49 pitches that day. Bottom line: Beckett's arm should be "live" today & I'm willing to take Boston at the home dog price in a favorable spot against a lefty.

Dave Price

NY Mets -145

New York's Chris Young is yet to record a win at home this season but has pitched well enough to do so (3.33 home ERA). I believe he breaks through tonight against a club he has had success against in the past. Young is 2-0 (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 0.47 and a WHIP of 0.895 in 3 career starts versus the Marlins. Miami won yesterday but is 1-5 in its last 6 games following a win, 6-14 in its last 20 overall, 7-19 in its last 26 road games and 1-5 in its last 6 road games versus the Mets. Take New York.

Jimmy Boyd

New York Yankees -136

The Yankees are showing value with Sabathia on the mound. Consider that they are an amazing 77-31 in his last 108 starts, 39-18 in his last 57 road starts and 21-6 in his last 27 starts versus American League Central foes. They Yankees are even 5-2 in Sabathia's last 7 starts versus the Tigers. Detroit has been playing well at home, but the fact it has been valued as an underdog is cause for concern. Consider that it is 0-7 in its last 7 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Yanks.