Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -115
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value at home Wednesday as a small favorite over the San Francisco Giants. Rarely will you get the Cardinals as this small of a home favorite against anyone.
Joe Kelly gets the ball for St. Louis, and he's clearly not getting the respect he deserves tonight. Kelly has posted a 3.14 ERA in 10 starts this season, including a 2.73 ERA in six home starts.
Ryan Vogelsong has pitched well this season for San Francisco, but he has never been able to figure out St. Louis. Vogelsong is 0-4 (0-5 on the money line) with a 9.00 ERA and 1.773 WHIP in five career starts against the Cardinals.
The Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 16-5 in their last 21 home games. St. Louis is 4-0 in its last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 25-10 in their last 35 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet St. Louis Wednesday.
WUNDERDOG
Texas at Boston
Pick: Texas -110
The Boston Red Sox had a few sure things at the top of their rotation entering the season. Those were Jon Lester, and Josh Beckett. Those sure things have become huge question marks as the pair has combined to win just 10 games, losing 19. Josh Beckett left his last start with back spasms, and hasn't pitched since July 31st. This is his 7th season in Boston, and four of those have shown an ERA of over 4. This year's 4.54 has been what appears to be more of the norm. The Red Sox are just 2-7 in his last nine starts overall. The Rangers have been perfect with Harrison taking the mound on the road vs. a losing team at 9-0 in his last nine starts. Behind Harrison overall, the Rangers are 23-6 when he faces a losing team. The Rangers have taken charge at Fenway as they are 4-1 here in their last five. Play on Texas.
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is now at 88-54-2 after scoring with the Detroit Tigers against the New York Yankees. Tonight I inch closer to the 90-win mark with another play on the Tigers, as I'm taking my chances with them getting it done in the third game of this four-game series.
It wasn't that long ago everyone thought the Tigers were about to disappear, along with the Cleveland Indians. But if you haven't noticed, Detroit is rolling at Comerica Park, and should be able to extend its home winning streak to 11 games. I knew the Yankees weren't ready to respond after Detroit-ace Justin Verlander matched a career high with 14 strikeouts two nights back, and don't think they'll be able to recover from last night's disappointing setback.
I'm going off of pure momentum in this one, as I like the price here with the Tigers.
2♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
Tonight's free play is the Diamondbacks over the Pirates.
Arizona came through with a 10-4 win over Pittsburgh last night, as the Pirates (34-17 at Home) suffered a rare home loss.
I like the D-Backs to make it two in a row over the Bucs in their home ballpark tonight, as Ian Kennedy continues his late season surge.
Kennedy went 21-4 last season, but is just 10-8 this season. Taking a closer look at Kennedy you will see Kennedy has won his last four starts with an ERA of just 2.54 in those four victories.
Kevin Correia makes the spot start for Pittsburgh, as Correia is on a 6-0 run his last seven starts, but did get moved to the bullpen in favor of the recently acquired Wandy Rodriguez. Correia's last three starts against the Diamondbacks show an over 13 ERA, and after plating 10 runs last night, I think it is safe to say the Snakes hitting shoes are tied tightly right now!
Pittsburgh is just 4-5 their last nine games, and I think they drop to 4-6 after the loss tonight.
Take Arizona as your free play winner.
3♦ ARIZONA
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is a matinee meeting between the Angels and the Athletics.
Sign me up for a play on Zack Greinke to show why the Halos made a move to pick him him this afternoon against the A's.
Greinke is winless in a pair of starts since joining Los Angeles, but he does own a 5-1 career mark when facing Oakland.
The A's will go with Daniel Straily who picked up a no-decision in his major league debut despite working six innings of one run ball against the Blue Jays.
Oakland snapped a three game series losing streak to Los Angeles with the win last night, but the fact remains they are just 2-4 the last six times they have faced the Halos this season.
L.A. is putting the wraps on a ten game road swing this afternoon, and they need the win today to return home with a .500 mark in those ten. They get it.
Take the Angels, as Greinke finally gets a win in an Angels uniform.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Dom Chambers
For today’s free play, let’s go with the Atlanta Braves to beat the Philadelphia Phillies.
Tim Hudson starts for the Braves. Overall, he is 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA.
He has given up only five earned runs in 20 innings.
The Phillies are struggling this season and Kyle Kendrick starts. He is 4-9 with a 4.45 ERA. In his last three starts, the Phillies have lost all three games.
Against right-handed starters, the Braves are 45-24 and on the road, they are 31-21. The Braves have been playing well and should take care of business against the Phillies.
The Phillies won Tuesday, but I look for the Braves to bounce back today.
3♦ BRAVES
Craig Davis
55-37 is my free play run coming into Wednesday.
Wednesday's free play is the Texas Rangers.
I believe this is a great time to face Beckett, regardless of what team you are. Beckett seems to be the most frustrated man in Boston... he's frustrated with himself, frustrated with the team, frustrated with losing.
Tonight he's going to try to take out that frustration on the Texas Rangers, but it's going to be difficult considering he doesn't pitch as well when things aren't going his way. He's one of those guys that wears his emotions on his sleeve, and when his mind isn't right, he tends to get wild or get sloppy. Either way, the Rangers aren't exactly the team you want to do either against.
Texas starter Matt Harrison, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. He's been the most consistent starter the Rangers have had all season, and should be able to keep the Rangers in the game until Beckett implodes.
Beckett is struggling with consistency and health, and he's not getting a lot of run support either. Beckett is just 1-5 with a 5.00 ERA in his last nine starts, with Boston going 2-7 in those games. The last time he was on the mound, he had to be removed early due to back spasms. Not a good sign coming into tonight.
Harrison, contrarily, got his 13th win of the season by allowing two runs on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-3 win over Kansas City last Friday. Harrison hasn't faced Boston this year, but is 13-6 on the season with a 3.17 ERA and leads the majors with a 2.99 road ERA in 12 starts away from Texas this year.
Sorry Boston fans, but it's not happening today.
Take the Texas Rangers as your free play of the day.
1♦ TEXAS
Scott Delaney
Anyone else thinking about a potential freeway series in October?
No, I don't mean in Southern California, between the Angels of Anaheim and Los Angeles Dodgers. And I'm not sub-referring to a subway series in the Big Apple.
I'm talking about the American League Wild Card-leading Baltimore Orioles and the MLB-best Washington Nationals.
Probably didn't think you'd utter those words in August, right?
Well, such is the case, and my free play tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Seattle Mariners. The Orioles have won four straight, while the Mariners had been limited to seven runs while dropping three of four before last night's disappointing 8-7 loss here at Camden Yards.
I don't see how the M's recover from that letdown, and will suffer their fourth straight loss tonight. I like Baltimore no matter who goes on the hill for either team.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Jeff Alexander
NY Yankees -136
Sabathia gives the Yankees the advantage tonight. He is 11-3 with an ERA of 3.53 in 19 starts this season. The Yankees are 77-31 his last 108 starts, 75-28 in his last 103 starts as a favorite and 37-15 in his last 52 starts as a road favorite. The Yanks have also won 5 of his last 7 starts versus the Tigers, including both this season. Bet New York.
Dirty
Mariners vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9.5
Kevin Millwood will be the starting pitcher for the Mariners on this day. Righthander Millwood is 4-9 this season with a 4.01 ERA. Starting this game for the Orioles will be Steve Johnson. The righthander has a 0.00 ERA to go along with a 0-0 record this season. Knock Down Dragout Last night and a Newbie on the mound for Baltimore. Teams normally struggle against pitchers the first time they face them and expect that tonight and with Seattles Anemic Offense anyway this looks like a solid Under The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +136 over N.Y. METS
Outside of Ike Davis and David Wright, the Mets’ offense is a disorganized bunch of replacement-level players. The Mets have scored six runs over their last three losses (they’ve lost three of four) including the paltry pair they managed last night.
Chris Young is coming off one of his best starts of the season vs. San Fran but his extreme fly-ball tendency (58% FB%), low strikeout rate (38 K’s in 64 IP) and xERA of 5.13 make him a risky and unplayable favorite. The Mets are 3-8 in Young’s 11 starts and he simply cannot be trusted, nor can New York’s bullpen.
The Marlins aren’t exactly setting the world on fire but they have split their past four games and despite losing, they are one of a select few this season that got to Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman (five runs in five innings) last week in a 10-7 loss.
Nathan Eovaldi is a risk too. He has a decent groundball rate but after that his skills tail off. His strikeout rate is below average and he walks too many batters. However he is on a list you wouldn't expect to find him on. Eovaldi has the third-highest average fastball velocity (94.4 mph) behind Stephen Strasburg and Jeff Samardzija and if he can hit his spots better with his secondary pitches, his stock will climb. He came in as a highly touted prospect out of the Dodgers organization and while he has not lived up to expectations, he’s not the one spotting a price here. Chris Young and the Mets are an instant fade as chalk in this range.