Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday July, 18

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays and Indians resume their four-game series in Tampa Wednesday night where the Tribe sends Justin Masterson mound at Tropicana Field. For openers, Masterson has struggled throughout his MLB career against the Rays, going 1-8 with an 8.08 ERA in team starts, including 0-4 with an 8.18 ERA in this park. With the Indians just 7-13 of late both in this series and in this park, look for Masterson's woes against the Rays to continue tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa.

MTi Sports

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies Dodgers game is a tough one to handicap. It looks like Philadelphia is making a run at the playoffs, but the two times since 2010 that Clayton Kershaw was a home dog, he out-dueled Jimenez 2-0 and then lost to the Yankees with Pettitte in extra innings when his bullpen allowed four runs in the top of the ninth inning. We will offer this trend to aid in your decision-making process. The Phillies are a sensational 26-3 on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em and they are off a night win in which they used at least five pitchers. Usually, when any team is 26-3 in a particular spot, the conditions of the trend include something like as a 160-plus favorite. However, here the Phillies are in a virtual pick-em situation. Further, if you run the trend yourself, you will see that the Phillies are 13-0 their last 13 in this spot, with twelve of the 13 wins by multiple runs. This one indicates that the Phillies are the right side.

Ross King

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is 6-1 in Los Angeles the last 3 seasons.While the Dodgers have lost 8 of 9 overall and 7 in a row at home to these Phillies they sport one of the worst records since june the 19th.Philadelphia knows all about losing streaks losing 11 of 12 prior to this 4 game winning streak.Kershaw is 0-5 with a 5.44 e.r.a facing Lee who is 3-1 with an e.r.a under 1 and sports his lowest e.r.a versus any opponent he has ever faced.Take Philadelphia this afternoon as they are getting back to their winning ways and healthier with each passing game as your early freeplay winner.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas fits a solid road system that plays on road favorites with a total of 8 or less that come in off a road favored win by 5 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, vs an opponent off a home dog loss that scored 2 or less runs and had 5 or more hits and left 5 or more men on base. These road favorites are 17-3 the last 20. Texas averages 5 runs per game vs Left handed pitchers and they will face T. Blackley today. Blackley has allowed 6 runs in 11 innings vs Texas. He will oppose C. Lewis today. Lewis has won 4 of his last 5 July starts and already shut down Oakland in Early June going 8 strong innings allowing just a pair of runs. With Oakland scoring just 3.6 runs per game on .223 hitting here at home we will back Texas today.

Ben Burns

Seattle vs. Kansas City
Pick: Under

I played on the 'over' in the opening game of this series. The O/U line was nine and the game finished with 13 combined runs. I feel the value lies the other way on Wednesday though.

Toiling away in the Pacific Northwest, Millwood doesn't get much notice. He's quietly having a very solid season though. It hasn't simply been due to pitching at SafeCo either.

Despite being just 3-7 on the season, Millwood has a respectable 3.71 ERA. On the road, his ERA dips all the way down to 2.72. Throw in the fact that he's averaging better than six innings per road start and that he had a 1.225 WHIP in those games - and you've got very solid numbers. In nine road starts this season, he's struck out 47 batters while allowing only two home runs. In his last road start, Millwood tossed seven shutout innings.

Combine Millwood's excellent road numbers and Seattle's typically weak offensive stats - and its not all that surprising to learn that the "under" is a lucrative 8-1 in Millwood's starts away from SafeCo.

While Millwood has been better on the road, Chen has had more success at home. In eight home starts, he's got a respectable 3.95 ERA and a very solid 1.204 WHIP. Five of his eight home starts have fallen below the number.

While he hasn't pitched too well lately, Chen should be happy to see Seattle. In seven starts vs. the Mariners, Chen is 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA. In his lone start against the M's last season, Chen allowed a single unearned run through eight complete innings. His lone 2010 start vs. Seattle saw him allow just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. He won those by scores of 2-1 and 5-1, both games falling below the total.

While that hasn't been the case so far this series, the M's have still been a very profitable 'under' team against southpaw starters again this season. Heading into Tuesday's action, the 'under' is 19-11 when they've faced a left-hander. That brings the 'under' to 67-45-8 the past few seasons in their games against southpaws. All things considered, a number of "9" looks pretty fair. Consider the Under.

Freddy Wills

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Los Angeles Angels

C.J. Wilson continues to just pitch well and do it well on the road. Wilson posts a 1.16 WHIP and a 2.84 ERA over his last three starts combined, but he posts a 2.07 ERA on the road which is nothing new for him as he posts a 2.95 ERA on the road over the last three years combined. Wilson has held the Tigers hitters in check despite a couple of rough outings vs. the Tigers last year. Overall in 66 AB he's held them to .212 average and a .593 OPS. The Tigers just are not the same vs. LHP and I love their edge in the pitching match up here on Wednesday. What I mean by they are not the same is they are scoring 0.67 runs less per 9 innings vs. LHP than they are vs. RHP and 0.96 less at home. On the other hand the Angels are completely balanced.

They'll have the RHP Doug Fister who posts a 4.56 ERA at home and a 5.82 ERA over his last three combined. All of Fisters starts vs. the Angels have come with his time with the Mariners. Collectively the Angels have 111 AB and a .279 average with a .743 OPS. The Tigers are 3-8 in his last 11 starts and he just either seems to throw a bad game or have some bad luck and right now the Angels continue to stay hot and I'll back them in this spot.

Notable Hot Starters:
Jordan Zimmermann (2-1, 0.89WHIP, 0.95 ERA)
Travis Blackley (2-1, 0.73 WHIP, 1.64 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (2-1, 1.00 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Matt Latos (2-1, 0.71 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Kevin MIllwood (0-3, 0.98 WHIP, 2.20 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Tommy Hunter who has held the Twins in check over his career and has held them to a .668 OPS in his career while the Orioles have beaten up on Francisco Liriano with an .831 OPS.

Notable Cold Starters:
Jeff Samardzija (1-2, 1.31 WHIP, 6.38 ERA)
Josh Johnson (1-2, 1.59 WHIP, 6.06 ERA)

Jim Feist

Indians vs Rays
Pick: Under

The Cleveland Indians took the opening game of this series back on Monday, 3-2. It was only the club's second win in their last five games. The Indians are a decent hitting club, averaging 4.5 runs per game with a .258 batting average. Their pen has been good enough to blow just five of 33 save opportunities this year, though the ERA could be better than the current 4.24. Tampa Bay has been a bit anemic on offense this season, especially at home where it averages just 3.9 runs per game with a .221 batting average. The up side is that they have been holding those home opponents to just 3.8 runs per game and a .239 batting average. Justin Masterson starts tonight with a 6-8 record and 4.14 ERA. Masterson has won two of his last three starts. Jeremy Hellickson will get the nod for the Rays. Hellickson's record is a losing one at 4-6, but he has a respectable 3.48 ERA. In his last three starts he's only allowed six total earned runs but lost all three. What I like most about Hellickson has been at home. Hellickson has seen 19 of his last 23 home games go UNDER the total with average total runs of just 6.2. Hellickson's only two starts against Cleveland have both gone under with his ERA of just 1.38. Tampa won't score you many at home, but I don't believe the Indians will either here against Hellickson. I'm going UNDER tonight.

Dave Cokin

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Josh Johnson has tossed out the occasional tease, but the truth is the Marlins ace has struggled to find his pre-injury form. Jeff Samardzija looks like he's finding his second wind after some ugly outings and I'll back him and Cubs tonight as home dogs.

Jeff Scott Sports

Pittsburgh -122 over COLORADO: Gotta go with the huge pitching advantage that the Pirates have in this one. James McDonald comes in 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. On the road he has a 4-2 mark with a 3.97 ERA, while in his 7 day starts he is 3-1 with a skinny 1.85 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP. Now to the other side, we have Jeremy Guthrie who has pitched much better on the road than at Coors this year. On the road Jeremy has gone 2-4 with a solid 3.67 ERA, but in the thin air at Coors he has really struggled, going just 1-5 with a 9.23 ERA. He has a 1.85 WHIP and has allowed 12 HR's in just 39 innings at home. Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offense, but they do score much better on the road than at home and in this setting vs this pitcher their offense should have a good showing. Im still not sold on Pittsburgh lasting in the playoff race the whole second half, unless they get another big bat, but the Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league and have one of the worst home pitchers on the mound today. Look for Pittsburgh to take this one behind another solid outing from McDonald.

NY Yanks/ Toronto Under 10.5: I really wanted this play higher, but line movement has me playing it safe. Boy I did some digging on this one as you will see.The Jays are missing their top offensive threat and it really has showed as they have scored just 4 total runs in their last t games and i feel it will be very hard for them to score in this one. That's because they will be facing Hiroki Kuroda, who has been awesome in day starts this year. in 3 Day starts this year Hiroki has not allowed an ER just yet. he has allowed just 12 hits, with no walks and has 20 K's in his 23 innings of day work this year. He should really clamp down on an offensively challenged Jays squad here. Offensively the Yanks as as solid as ever, but sometimes when they have a dominant pitching edge or when they are big favorites their offense does just enough to get the win. Here are some stats t support this. The Yanks have been home faves of 169 or higher 19 times this year and have scored more than 6 runs just 4 times in those game, including just once in their last 14 in that situation. The Yanks have averaged just 4.9 rpg in those 19 games and on 1 of the last 14 when they are home faves of 169 or higher have put up more than 9 runs. You would think this offense would kill weak pitch and that those games would go way over, but the numbers say other wise. The Under is 21-5-1 in the Yanks last 27 games as a home favorite of 151-200 and the Under is 13-1 in their last 14 this year as a home favorite of 169 or higher. The final stat is the fact that Yankee day games have averaged 9.1 rpg, with the Under going 18-9 in those games. Even if the yanks put 6 runs on the board like the first 2 games, I just don't see Toronto coming close to to the 5 runs that would be needed for me to lose this one. Lets hope the numbers don't lie here.

POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-8 -2.09 UNITS)

Since 2005 the Astros are 2-13 as a non-div road dog when seeking immediate revenge for for a 5+ run loss in which they were outhit by 5 or more hits. Play On San Diego -132 over Houston.

Since 2007 the Yanks are 31-4 when off a win as a favorite of 130+ in which they scored in at least 2 seperate innings and this is not game 1 of the series. Play on New York Yankees -177 over Toronto.
More Later

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +115 over Toronto

Tough spot for the Blue Jays after dropping the first two games of this series by scores of 6-1 and 6-3. They’ll be without Jose Bautista for the next two weeks and to replace him they’ve called up Anthony Gose. Gose has plenty of speed (70 stolen bases in 2011) but no power and is better known for his defense. Right now the Blue Jays need offense, especially with Ricky Romero on the hill. Romero is 3-3 on the road with a 5.65 ERA. Current Yanks have 205 career AB’s against him and in New York, they’ve ruined him to the tune of a 5.02 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. That was when Romero was the anchor of this rotation. This year, his skills have declined dramatically along with his confidence. He’s always struggled in the second half and with his struggles this season, he’s likely to labour even worse. Hiroki Kuroda is on track to post an excellent first season for New York. He has a 48% groundball rate and his command of the strike zone is a weapon in any park. With injuries claiming some other starters, the Yankees will be leaning heavily on Kuroda down the stretch. Bettors would be wise to do the same here.

Scott Spreitzer

SF Giants +107

The Giants got the better of not only the Atlanta Braves last night, but of me, also. I had the Braves in last night's contest and it was over in the 4th inning. I don't believe the Braves will bounce back all that easily against the red-hot NL West entry. San Fran sends Ryan Vogelsong to the Turner Field bump tonight - and he's posted a 3.59 ERA & 1.26 WHIP in seven roadies this season (3.11 ERA in his last five road starts). Vogelsong is a reliable innings-eater, pitching at leas seven full innings in 12 of his last 13 starts and his team is on a 10-2 run when the righty toes the rubber. He'll face an Atlanta lineup that has scored runs at home against righties, but I just don't believe their bats will be able to "keep up" in this one. ATL sends Mike Minor to the hill tonight and the lefty has been tagged quite often in his last 12 starts, allowing a whopping 51 earned runs, 70 hits, and 35 walks in 65 2/3 innings of work. And how about this number -- Minor has allowed 18 home runs in those outings for a 2.47 home runs allowed per 9 IP mark. Combine the long ball with the fact he's allowing nearly five free passes per 9 IP and SFO ought to extend their win streak to five straight games. I'm backing San Francisco on Wednesday.

Dr. Ed Meyer

St Louis -143

Over the years, the St Louis Cardinals have OWNED their opponent in the rubber game of a three-game set. They are 69-32 in the history of the database as a favorite in the last game of a three-game series when they split the first two and they are on a 19-3 run recently - and all three losses were in extra innings.

The Brewers have the mental toughness of a banana slug in this spot, as they are 2-17 as a dog in the last game of a three-game series, including 0-8 since the start of the 2011 season as a dog in the last game of a three-game series that is tied at one each.

Finally, in Wainwright's last start, the Cardinals built an early 2-0 lead, but lost 5-3. This a very strong play-on spot for many perennial contenders and the Cardinals are no exception. St Louis is 17-3 on the ROAD when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost and they are off a night game - including 15-1 if their bullpen allowed at least one run in that loss.

Note that the Cardinals have won by an average of 4.9 runs per game over their last 16 in this spot.

This, of course, is baseball, so anything can happen. If you want a sure thing, don't bet baseball. Perhaps the Cardinals should be -150 in this spot giving us some line value. Whatever the case, we can state with confidence that they do not have a better than two-thirds chance to win this game. Nonetheless, it is worth a small play.

Now that I think about it… perhaps a play on the Cardinals over the first five innings is work because Wainwright has struggled when going through the batting order for the third time.

FORECAST: St Louis 5 MILWAUKEE 3

Matt Fargo

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota rallied from a 4-1 deficit to win the second game of this series last night and it looks for a series win at a minimum with a victory tonight. The Twins opened the second half by getting swept at home against Oakland which made it five straight losses and the offense really struggled but they have responded by scoring 25 runs in the first two games against the Orioles. Minnesota again has a pitching matchup advantage and it is now 5-0 in its last five home games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore is now 1-4 since the All-Star break which has added to a run that has not been very good as the Orioles are now 7-17 over its last 24 games and has fallen from the top of the American League East to 10 games behind the Yankees. They are still over .500 on the road but are just 3-9 over their last 12 games on the highway. The pitching has started to implode as the starters have a 4.79 ERA on the season after a strong start. The Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 games as a road underdog between +110 and +150. All it took was a trip to the bullpen to sort things out for Francisco Liriano apparently. After posting a 9.45 ERA through his first six starts, he was sent to do some relief work to try and sort things out and after five games, he came back into the rotation and has tossed seven quality outings in nine starts. His command was off early on but since his return to the starting role, he has a 2.83 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 57.1 innings. The Twins are 5-2 in Liriano's last seven starts against teams with a winning record. Tommy Hunter has been recalled from Norfolk to make the start in place of the injured Jason Hammel. After posting a 7.31 ERA over five starts in May and June, he was sent to the bullpen and was eventually sent to the minors. During his time in the rotation, he went 0-3 with an 8.07 ERA in six road starts with only one of those resulting in a quality outing. Baltimore has averaged just 3.8 rpg in his road starts and it is 2-5 in his last seven starts as a road underdog between +110 and +150.

Bryan Power

Baltimore vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

Things are beginning to grow dire for Baltimore, who predictably is falling "back to the pack" after a surprisingly strong start to the season. They still have a winning record on the road, but have dropped the first two games of this four-game set to Minnesota, including an embarrassing 19-7 loss in Monday's opener, a game in which I had the Twins. Tonight, I look for the Twins to make it three in a row, handing the Orioles their seventh loss in eight games.

Even worse is that Baltimore has been shut out three different times during its current 1-6 stretch. Facing Francisco Liriano may not seem like much, but the Twins right-hander is coming off a career high 15 strikeout performance in his most recent outing. (Though Minnesota did lose). In his last start before that one, Liriano allowed just one run in a win over the Texas Rangers. Also worth noting is that Liriano is likely to be dealt at the trade deadline. He'll be eager to improve his stock here.

Not only have the Orioles dropped six of their last seven overall, but they are also just 3-9 their last 12 road games. Starter Tommy Hunter, who's being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk here, isn't the most likely candidate to turn things around. In six previous road starts this year, Hunter is 0-3 with an 8.07 ERA. Minnesota moves one step closer to a sweep tonight.