Dave Essler
Arizona +130
Perfect spot for the D-backs here as Kennedy has done well against the Reds collectively, and this is where the loss of Votto shows up. Latos looked a little shaky last time out, and I've always been convinced much of his success in the past was due to pitching in Petco. The Reds have used a fair bit of that stellar bullpen of late, which does in fact hinder their late inning edge a bit. Although the Reds won and shutout the D-backs last night, they only mustered five hits and got three of their four runs in one inning, aided by five walks issued by Bauer. We were all over the Reds last night, and we're all over this generous line tonight. This is indeed one of our premium plays for tonight.
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds -131
The D-backs have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road and 21 of their last 31 against the Reds. They are 4-10 in Kennedy's last 14 starts, 2-7 in his last 9 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds have won 7 of their last 8 and are 8-2 in Latos' last 10 starts and 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. We'll bet the Reds.
Jack Jones
Miami Marlins -117
The Miami Marlins are showing great value as a small road favorite over the lowly Chicago Cubs Wednesday. Miami has won two in a row and realizes now is the time that it needs to make a move if it wants to play in the postseason. At 36-53 on the season, the Cubs have little to play for the rest of the way.
While Josh Johnson hasn't been his old dominant self this year, I have no doubt he's the better starter in this match-up. Johnson is 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA on the season, while Jeff Samardzija is 6-8 with a 4.71 ERA on the year for the Cubs.
Johnson has posted a 3.44 ERA in three career starts against Chicago, not once allowing more than three earned runs. Samardzija is 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.965 WHIP in two career starts against Miami. In his lone start against the Marlins this year on 4/19, Samardzija gave up five earned runs and 13 base runners over 3 2/3 innings.
Miami is 12-3 in road games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Miami is 40-12 in Johnson's last 52 starts with 4 days of rest. The Marlins are 7-1 in Johnson's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 1-7 in Samardzija's last 8 starts as an underdog. Bet Miami Wednesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates -123
The Pirates, winners of 12 of their last 17, have the advantage with James McDonald on the mound. The right-hander is 9-3 (12-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.59 in 18 starts. The Pirates, who are 20-6 in their last 26 games as a favorite, are 5-0 in McDonald's last 5 starts as a favorite.
Colorado's Jeremy Guthrie, meanwhile, is 3-8 (6-8 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.42 in 14 starts. The Rockies have dropped four of his six home starts during which he has posted a 9.27 ERA. The Rockies, who are 11-25 in their last 36 overall and 5-13 in their last 18 home games, are 1-5 in Guthrie's last 6 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. We'll take Pittsburgh.
MLB Predictions
San Diego Padres -125
I already gave a write up about these two teams two days ago when we had a play on San Diego, but quickly the Astros are just 10-36 on the road while the Padres are 18-28 at home. Houston is just 16-35 in their last 51 games overall, and 2-14 in their last 16 games. The Padres are 9-6 over their last 15 games. Wandy Rodriguez is 7-7 on the season with a 3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .260 opponents batting average. Clayton Richard is 6-10 on the year with a 3.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .249 opponents batting average. Since the start of June Richard has had only two starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs against, and in 6 of those 9 starts he allowed 2 or fewer earned runs against. As a team the Astros are hitting an awful .201 against lefties, while the Padres are a little better at .225. The Astros are just 13-40 in their last 53 games as an underdog, 19-67 in their last 86 road games, 1-4 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts overall, and 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. The Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win, 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game, and 4-1 in Richard's last 5 starts vs a team with a losing record. San Diego is also 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs Houston. Clayton Richard has been the better pitcher of the two, and the Astros bats are pretty dead over their last 16 games where they've gone just 2-14. I like San Diego to pick up another win this afternoon.
Chicago White Sox +159
Chicago evened up this series 1-1 with a 7-5 win last night, with help from Youkilis' three run homerun against his former team. The White Sox are 50-40 and 26-18 on the road, while the Red Sox are just 46-45 and 23-25 at home. Pedro Hernandez will make his Major League debut tonight. He is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in the minors this year. Felix Doubront will make this a southpaw match up as he takes the mound. He is 9-4 on the year with a 4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .258 opponents batting average. Over two starts in July he has lasted just 10.2 innings but his ERA is at 3.38. In 5 June starts he was 3-2 with a high 5.83 ERA. At home Doubront is just 4-3 with a 5.66 ERA. The White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 overall, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a left handed starter. The Red Sox are just 12-26 in their last 38 home games vs a team with a winning road record. There is too much value on the White Sox to pass up on tonight, even with a rookie pitcher on the mound.
San Francisco Giants +109
San Francisco snapped Atlanta's 7 game winning streak in a big way last night with a 9-0 victory. The Giants have now won 4 straight themselves after a weekend sweep of Houston to push them to 50-40 on the season and 21-24 on the road. The Braves are 49-40 on the season and 23-23 at home. Ryan Vogelsong is 7-4 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .221 opponents batting average. Although he is known to be a better pitcher at home, Vogelsong is 3-2 on the road with a respectable 3.59 road ERA. Mike Minor will be on the rubber for Atlanta and he is barely hanging on to his spot in the rotation with a 5-6 record, 5.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .263 opponents batting average. Looking back at his starts, it is rare for Minor not to allow 4+ earned runs in a start, although he did have a pretty solid outing his last time out throwing 6.1 innings allowing just 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Take note that the Giants are 10-2 in Vogelsong's last 12 starts, and 22-5 in their last 27 games vs a starter with a WHIP higher then 1.30. The Braves are just 2-6 in Minor's last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the Giants as underdogs.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -120
The Philadelphia Phillies were given the keys to the National League Championship at the beginning of the season. What wasn't seen was an aging, declining lineup, injuries to their ace Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee who was also penciled in for at least 15 wins. This team is still carrying the illusion of a good team despite the fact they are 13-26 in their last 39 games. Cliff Lee is also being based on the past, but he has been poor of late, winning just one game all season long. The Dodgers have their ace on the mound tonight in Clayton Kershaw who owns a 2.49 ERA at home on the season. The Phillies are just 3-13 in their last 16 when posted as a dog, and the Dodgers are now 7-0 at home behind Kershaw as a home favorite of -110 to -150 Play on LA.
Lenny Del Genio
Seattle vs. Kansas City
Pick: Seattle
Considering the Royals' atrocious home mark of 15-27 (worst in MLB), we see no reason why they should be a favorite of this size Wednesday, particularly after allowing 18 runs to the Mariners in the first two games of the series and the pitching matchup not being in their favor this evening. The first two games of this three-game set have both seen Seattle jump out to big leads early (7-0 and 6-0) and they should have no problem doing so again here against KC lefty Bruce Chen, who has allowed exactly six runs in each of his three July starts thus far (11.75 ERA). Despite a losing record vs. southpaws for the year, the M's are averaging five full runs per game against them. Meanwhile, Kevin Milwood has pitched quite well for the road team. He has a 2.20 ERA L3 starts, yet has been a hard luck loser every time (0-3 TSR). Look for that to change tonight against a Royals team that's dropped 7 of 8 overall.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay/ Cleveland Under 8: (Added) Lets start off with a few trends here. The Under is 47-17-4 in the Rays last 64 home games vs a team with a losing road record... The Under is 21-3-2 in Hellickson's last 36 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5... The Under is 4-1 the last 5 meetings here... The Under is 13-5 when umpire Dan Issognas is behind home plate. Jeremy Hellickson has always pitched well in this park as he has a 2.72 Career ERA here, but a 11-10 home record would indicate allot of low scoring games. This year just 6.1 rpg have been scored in his home starts and the UNDER is 7-1 in those games. Jeremy was rocked for 8 ER's a few weeks ago at home by the Mets, but an injury may have been the cause of that as he went on the DL right after that game. In his last 10 starts that was the only game in which he allowed more than 3 ER's and not one of the other 9 games saw more than 8 runs scored. Jeremy has faced Cleveland once this year and once last year and has allowed just 2 total ER's in 13 innings of work in the two games, with neither game putting up more than 7 runs. Justin Masterson was rocked for 8 ER's vs the Rays a couple of starts ago, but in this park the Rays offense is not as good as they have scored just 3.92 rpg here, compared to 4.4 rpg on the road. Still Justin has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his last 7 outings and should have a better showing vs the Rays then he did two weeks ago. I look for 6 runs at the most here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh -122 over COLORADO: Gotta go with the huge pitching advantage that the Pirates have in this one. James McDonald comes in 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. On the road he has a 4-2 mark with a 3.97 ERA, while in his 7 day starts he is 3-1 with a skinny 1.85 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP. Now to the other side, we have Jeremy Guthrie who has pitched much better on the road than at Coors this year. On the road Jeremy has gone 2-4 with a solid 3.67 ERA, but in the thin air at Coors he has really struggled, going just 1-5 with a 9.23 ERA. He has a 1.85 WHIP and has allowed 12 HR's in just 39 innings at home. Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offense, but they do score much better on the road than at home and in this setting vs this pitcher their offense should have a good showing. Im still not sold on Pittsburgh lasting in the playoff race the whole second half, unless they get another big bat, but the Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league and have one of the worst home pitchers on the mound today. Look for Pittsburgh to take this one behind another solid outing from McDonald.
NY Yanks/ Toronto Under 10.5: I really wanted this play higher, but line movement has me playing it safe. Boy I did some digging on this one as you will see.The Jays are missing their top offensive threat and it really has showed as they have scored just 4 total runs in their last t games and i feel it will be very hard for them to score in this one. That's because they will be facing Hiroki Kuroda, who has been awesome in day starts this year. in 3 Day starts this year Hiroki has not allowed an ER just yet. he has allowed just 12 hits, with no walks and has 20 K's in his 23 innings of day work this year. He should really clamp down on an offensively challenged Jays squad here. Offensively the Yanks as as solid as ever, but sometimes when they have a dominant pitching edge or when they are big favorites their offense does just enough to get the win. Here are some stats t support this. The Yanks have been home faves of 169 or higher 19 times this year and have scored more than 6 runs just 4 times in those game, including just once in their last 14 in that situation. The Yanks have averaged just 4.9 rpg in those 19 games and on 1 of the last 14 when they are home faves of 169 or higher have put up more than 9 runs. You would think this offense would kill weak pitch and that those games would go way over, but the numbers say other wise. The Under is 21-5-1 in the Yanks last 27 games as a home favorite of 151-200 and the Under is 13-1 in their last 14 this year as a home favorite of 169 or higher. The final stat is the fact that Yankee day games have averaged 9.1 rpg, with the Under going 18-9 in those games. Even if the yanks put 6 runs on the board like the first 2 games, I just don't see Toronto coming close to to the 5 runs that would be needed for me to lose this one. Lets hope the numbers don't lie here.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Arizona +122 over CINCINNATI: Not usually a dog player, but I like this spot to take one here. The Reds lead their division, but the loss of Votto will start to hurt them. Last night the Reds won 4-0, but had just 5 hits and were aided by a ton of walk by Bauer, but that is some that won't happen here as Kenned has walked just 4 batters in his last 3 starts and he has walked just 14 batters in 63 innings on the road all year. Kennedy doe has a 4.00 ERA on the road, but with a respectable 1.24 WHIP. The Reds din't really show last night that they were able to string bunch of hits together and they will have to here, because Kennedy just doesn't give many free passes. Kennedy has faced the Reds twice in his career, (both last year) and he allowed just 2 ER's total in 13.1 innings of work. Mat Latos has been stellar for the Reds at home as he is 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA, But he only last 5 innings in his last home start (vs the Cards) and should struggle here vs a underrated D-Back offense. Mat has faced the D-Backs 4 times in his career, but just once outside of Petco and in that start he allowed 3 ER's on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 5.1 innings of work. Also if he does get pulled early bin this one, then he will be turning over the ball to a tired pen. The D-Backs pen has been solid with a 2.48 ERA in their last 10 games, so I say the edge should go to Arizona in the late innings. Look for Arizona to bounce back tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2004 the Reds are just 3-16 when they are off a win in which they had 5 or fewer hits and scored in at least 2 innings, as long as this is not the series opener.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-8 -2.09 UNITS)
Since 2005 the Astros are 2-13 as a non-div road dog when seeking immediate revenge for for a 5+ run loss in which they were outhit by 5 or more hits. Play On San Diego -132 over Houston.
Since 2007 the Yanks are 31-4 when off a win as a favorite of 130+ in which they scored in at least 2 seperate innings and this is not game 1 of the series. Play on New York Yankees -177 over Toronto.
Jeff Alexander
Minnesota Twins -144
Baltimore is really struggling. It has lost 6 of its last 7 and 17 of its last 24. Scheduled starter Tommy Hunter, who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.07 in 6 road starts, clearly can't be trusted away from home. The Twins are in better hands with Francisco Liriano. They have won 4 of his last 5 starts, and he has given up just 1 earned run in 3 of those. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Minnesota.
Joe Gavazzi
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
This perception reality play finds us on the underrated Cubs vs. the overrated Marlins. Miami enters with a record of 13-23 L36 games. Surprisingly, the Cubs have gone 17-13 over their last 30 including a 12-5 record of late. Yet the linemaker continues to give more love to Miami. Perhaps it is because of the potential of their big name ace Johnson. But reality tells us, he has a 5.45 road ERA and an 8.71 ERA in his last 2 starts. Far prefer the Cubs who are actually a winning team in Wrigley. Samardzija hit a speed bump in June. But this month, he has pitched back-to-back return to form games allowing just 3 runs in 14 IP. His home ERA of 3.89 is far superior to that of Johnson on the road. Don’t miss my 10* Mr. Consistency game today along with my 5* Momentum Mismatch and 5* Hidden Gem. All action comes in nighttime games.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels -113 over DETROIT
No reason to stop riding the hot hand of C.J. Wilson. The guy has been brilliant on the road where he is 6-2 in 12 starts, with a 2.07 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 74 IP. Not even the scorching Yankees got to him in his last start in which he threw seven complete in New York and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. Wilson keeps the ball on the ground (52% GB rate) and keeps the ball in the park (just 7 HR’s allowed in 118 IP), even when he was pitching for the Rangers in Texas. C.J. Wilson is the straight goods. Doug Fister is not enjoying the same success he had as a Tiger last season. He ended up 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA in 70 IP in Detroit along with some other freakishly low numbers. Nothing in his history pointed to him maintaining that level and eventually the truth comes out on all these pitchers that outpitch their skills. Fister is serviceable for sure but against a very warm Angels club and opposing C.J. Wilson, the Halo’s are the prudent choice here.
Evan Abrams
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
The Seattle Mariners have taken the first two games of their road trip to Kansas City to face the Royals, but game three will be different. The Mariners will face Royals starter Bruce Chen tonight, while the Royals will face veteran Kevin Millwood. The Mariners have lost their last four games started by Millwood and Wednesday night does not look any better. Bruce Chen has allowed six earned runs in each of his last three starts...so many people would say the smart play would be the over in this contest, but I believe the Royals will come out and take care of business at home Wednesday night. Take the Royals at home here.
Rocketman
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Los Angeles Angels
The LA Angels take on the Tigers in Detroit in the third game of this four game series. LA Angels are scoring 6.6 runs per game their past seven games overall. CJ Wilson is 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA overall this year, 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA on the road this season and has a 2.84 ERA his last 3 starts. Doug Fister has a 5.82 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 15-5 last 20 games as a road favorite. The Angels are 7-0 last 7 games when Wilson is a road favorite and 7-1 in Wilson's last 8 road game starts. The Angels have won 8 of the last 10 games when Wilson starts. Detroit is 6-14 last 20 games against the AL West division. Detroit is 3-9 last 12 games as a home underdog. Detroit is 3-8 last 11 games when Fister starts. Detroit is 1-5 last 6 games when Fister starts on 4 days rest. Detroit is 1-7 last 8 games when Fister starts after their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!