Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, July 21,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Colorado Rockies at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies meet the Marlins in Game Three of this four-game set with the Marlins in Florida this evening when Jason Hammel takes on Ricky Nolaso at Sun Life Stadium. Hammel enters with wins in eight of his last 10 team starts while issuing five walks against 31 strikeouts in his last five road outings. With Nolasco just 3-7 in his last 10 home team starts, look for Hammel to stay on stride here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.

Larry Ness
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Colorado Rockies at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
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Colorado returned from the break and scored just four runs in losing two of three games at Cincinnati. However, the team's bats have 'woken up' in Florida, getting 11 hits in a 9-8 loss on Monday before getting nine more hits last night in a 10-0 shut out of the Marlins. Florida has won FOUR of its last six but note that the Marlins have scored just FIVE runs in five games, excluding Monday's nine-run outburst. Scoring much off Jason Hammel on Wednesday will not be easy. Hammel has developed into an important cog in Colorado's rotation this season. Hammel was with the Rays during their World Series season of 2008, going 4-4 with two saves and a 4.60 ERA in 40 appearances (five starts). He came to the Rockies in the off-season and went 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 30 starts. It should be noted that the Rockies were an impressive 18-12 in those starts, as his moneyline mark of plus-$578 ranked 24th among MLB starters (not bad at all). Hammel got off to an 'ugly' start in 2010, going 0-2 with a 9.16 ERA in his first four starts (team was 0-4). A strained groin landed him on the DL and he was just 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA in his first two starts back, although he had a 13-1 KW ratio. That was a portend of things to come, as he went 4-0 with an 0.79 ERA (allowing three ERs over 34.1 innings) over his next five starts (team was 5-0). He had pitched 28.1 consecutive scoreless innings before giving up four runs in four innings of a 13-11, 10-inning loss to Boston on June 24. He's bounced back nicely the last four games, going 2-1 (team is 3-1) with a 3.42 ERA. Bottom line is this. In 10 starts since May 27, he's 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA (team is 8-2). While SEVEN of those starts have come at home, he does own a respectable 3.20 ERA in those three road starts. Ricky Nolasco goes for the Marlins. He was limited to just five appearances in 2007 due to elbow inflammation, after a solid 2006 rookie season. He was terrific in 2008, going 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA (Marlins were 21-11 and plus-$1,394 in his starts, the 2nd-best moneyline mark that year). His ERA ballooned to 5.06 last year but he was still 13-9 and the team went a surprising 18-13 (plus-$453). He's 9-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 19 starts this year but has been better on the road (4.18 ERA / he's 6-2 and the team 7-3) than at home (5.26 ERA / he's 3-5 and the team 3-6). I'm more comfortable with Hammel at home but will make a small play on him here, away from Coors Field.

Cajun Sports
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Colorado Rockies vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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The Rockies took Game 1 of this series 10 to 0 shutting out the Marlins on Monday night. Florida will seek a little revenge for that beating and our TPR Index Ratings project a Marlins victory. The Marlins are 26-18 (+15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons, 65-42 (+31.8 Units) after batting .225 or worse over a ten game span since 1997 and 10-2 (+9.0 Units) after batting .250 or worse over a twenty game span this season and 40-27 (+16.0 Units) with an on base percentage of .300 or worse their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the short price with the host as the Marlins avenge last night’s loss with a victory over the visiting Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Florida Marlins 3 Colorado Rockies 0

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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We cashed a ticket with the Giants last night and we can thank Don Mattingly for that one. He made a costly managerial mistake by making two trips to the mound, the second which came right after the first as he never made it back to the dugout, which forced closer Jonathan Broxton to exit in the ninth inning.

Nonetheless, it added to the Dodgers recent struggles and kept the Giants on their current roll. They are playing great as they have won the first two games of this series to go to 11-2 over their last 13 games so any loss of momentum that would have thought to have come from the All-Star break has not happened. The recent run has put the Giants into second place in the National League West, trailing the Padres by only three games.
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The Dodgers have now lost six straight, tying a season high, and going back further they are only 13-21 over their last 34 games and they continue to lose ground in the division. They are now in fourth place and trail first place San Diego by six games.

San Francisco has gotten a great season thus far from Barry Zito and he is coming off one of his best stats of the season in his first outing after the break. He limited the Mets to no runs on two hits in eight innings while striking out 10 and walking only two.
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He looks to keep that rolling against a Dodgers team he has had great success against in recent starts. He has tossed four straight quality performances against Los Angeles including two this season while posting a 2.45 ERA over that span. Overall, the giants are 12-7 in his 19 starts on the year.

Meanwhile Chad Billingsley was shelled yet again as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in just four innings against the Cardinals last time out. That raised his ERA to 4.61 this season and he heads home where his ERA sits at 5.44 compared to 3.72 on the road.
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His day/night splits are even worse as he has a 5.76 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 13 starts under the lights compared to a 1.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in four daytime starts.

The Dodgers are 3-9 over the last two years with Billingsley on the mound against teams with a winning record while going 3-10 at home as a favorite between -125 and -175. The Giants are 8-0 in their last eight games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 3* San Francisco Giants

Info Plays

3* on Cincinnati Reds +110

Reasons the Reds win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams (CINCINNATI) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. This is a 111-55 ML System hitting 66.9% over the last 5 seasons.

2.) Washington is 0-4 in their last 4 games and 1-6 in their last 7 games. Bronson Arroyo is 3-0 witha 1.29 ERA and 0.810 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Arroyo is 10-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.209 WHIP this season, and the Reds are 13-6 in his 19 starts in 2010. Bet Cincinnati at home.

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Philadelphia Phillies +143
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I know the Phillies have been struggling, but at this price I'll give them a shot Wednesday as they look to cool off the St. Louis Cardinals. Teams are finally starting to figure out Jamie Garcia, who has allowed 4 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8.2 innings over his last 2 starts.
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Phillies starter Joe Blanton has owned the Cardinals, going 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 4 career starts vs. St. Louis. The Phillies are a very profitable 60-47 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. Philly is 35-15 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Blanton is 17-6 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

Scott Spreitzer

Angels at Yankees
Pick: Angels

The Halos won a big one last night as they look to stay in the AL West race with the Texas Rangers. They were a big dog yesterday, and I expect more of the same in this one. Joel Pineiro has been a great addition to the Angel rotation. He's 7-0 in his last eight and the Angels have won all eight contests. Pineiro has allowed just 12 earned runs in his last seven starts, and he owns strong numbers against the Yankees. The righthander has a 3.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 18 career appearances against the Bronx Bombers, including 10 starts. Pineiro dominated the Yanks in his lone start at this venue, and he owns a 1.05 WHIP and .220 BAA in six daytime starts (4-1) in 2010. Javier Vazquez has turned his season around in his last several starts and I have used him in a couple of outings. But he has not figured out the Angels. Vazquez is 0-3 in six lifetime starts, including 0-2 this season with a 9.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, allowing nine earned runs and 16 base runners while throwing just nine combined innings. The Yankees are laying too high of a price thanks to public perception and we'll back the underdog Angels to make it two in a row over New York. I'm playing the Angels on Wednesday.

JIM FEIST

WASHINGTON NATIONALS / CINCINNATI REDS
PLAY: CINCINNATI REDS

This one is shaping up to be a dandy of a pitching duel between rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg for Washington and Bronson Arroyo for Cincinnati. Strasburg is the rage of Washington these days and his pitching has been exceptional with a 4-2 mark and 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. It isn't often that Washington get national coverage on ESPN, but with this rookie pitching it's easy to see the exposure. Strasburg has started eight games this season and has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of those games. Strasburg has just 14 BB's while posting 68 KO's in just 48 2/3 innings. The Reds, who are without slugger Scott Rolen, have had to rely on their pitching of late. Arroyo is having an excellent season himself with a 10-4 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. You have to be equally impressed with Arroyo, who has allowed just three earned runs in his last 20 innings of work for three consecutive wins. This game likely will come down to a pitchers duel with two very good hurlers on the mound. I'm going with the Reds here. The Reds are a rare home dog with a very good pitcher on the mound. I'm sure the public is paying for Strasburg's marquee value of late, especially on national television. The value here as I see it is with the home club, take the Reds.

SPORTS WAGERS
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ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.42 over Philadelphia
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The Phillies were whacked again last night for the second straight time here and there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again. The Phillies have now lost three in a row and five of six and its bullpen is running on fumes after the team allowed 26 runs over the last three games and worked eight innings last night. They’re not scoring either and in fact, they’ve scored one run or less in three of its last seven games. Two of its last three wins were by scores of 1-0 so they’re fortunate their losing funk isn’t worse. To make matters worse, Joe Blanton’s chances of going deep into this game is slim to none. Blanton has three wins in 15 starts, a 6.21 ERA, a 7.01 ERA on the road and a BAA of .300. At least he’s consistent, as he’s posted a 5.50+ ERA in each month so far this year and a 1.50+ WHIP in both June and July. Meanwhile the Cards continue to pound out hits and runs. They’ve now won seven straight and scored 41 times over that span and have hit a combined .307. Jamie Garcia is 3-1 at home with an ERA of 1.49. In 48 innings pitched at home he’s allowed just one jack. He has an outstanding groundball rate of 53% and while his strand rate is high also, which reveals some fortune; it’s not a concern here because the Phillies are not stringing any hits together these days and look completely out of sync. Trade rumors are swirling around the Phillies and that leaves an uneasy feeling. Red-hot v ice-cold gets the call. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).

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ATLANTA –1½ +1.42 over San Diego
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Tommy Hanson has had a rough few outings recently and that includes getting rocked by the South Side and the Tigers in back-to-back games June 22 and June 27. He only has one win in his last five starts and that has his stock lower than it’s been all season. Still, Hanson shows elite control with just 35 walks all season and 109 K’s. He’s issued two or fewer walks in every start since May 31 and last season he was outstanding in the second half. This guy has elite potential and wicked stuff and he’ll be up against the league’s biggest imposter, Jon Garland. Garland’s ERA is 3.45, which is a complete mirage. His ERA on the road is even flattering at 4.53. Garland remains an overvalued pitcher with no upside and he’s been regressing for six weeks now. In three July starts covering 17 frames, Garland has walked 10 and struck out 12. Now for the best news, current Braves hitters have 129 AB’s against Garland and their OPS is an off the charts 1.012. They also have a slugging percentage of .628 and a BA of .349. His ERA against the Braves in his career is 14.04 and once again we should see some batting practice out there against this stiff. Play: Atlanta –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).

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Texas –1.03 over DETROIT
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Sign me up baby! The Tigers have done a complete 180 and each loss is uglier than the last. The Tigers losing streak has hit seven and over that stretch they’ve scored three runs or less six times. They made a rookie pitcher for the Tribe named Jeanmar Gomez look like C.C Sabathia and they’ve done the same against Carmona, Westbrook, Hunter and Mitch Talbot. Now they’ll face a real pitcher is Colby Lewis. Lewis has allowed just 90 hits in 115 frames for a BAA of .209. Keep in mind that he pitches half his games at that landmine in Arlington. He has 112 K’s and just 39 walks. In 10 road starts his BAA is .171 and now he’ll face a reeling team in a pitcher’s park. Meanwhile the Rangers have won five of six and they just keep beating up on folks. They’ve scored seven runs or more in four of those six wins and they also won in Boston against Lester this past Sunday. They’ll face Max Scherzer here, a guy with lots of upside but also a guy that has never performed well under pressure. With a seven game losing streak and counting, this is not the ideal spot for Max. He can be awfully wild and can be counted on to walk some batters. You simply can’t expect to fall behind these Ranger hitters and get by. Once again, Hot v ice–cold and ugly gets the call. Play: Texas –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS
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Chicago Cubs -150
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After losing with the Cubbies on Monday, breaking the free winner streak at 11 games, I rode them for a free winner last night and I am right back on them again today for another free winner. The Cubs bats are really heating up. The Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez is coming off of a three homerun game as Chicago exploded for 13 unanswered runs in yesterdays game. Brett Myers has pitched well for Houston, but I expect Chicago's bats to stay hot and give their starting pitcher Ted Lilly enough run support to pick up the win today. Lilly has always pitched well against Houston as he is 7-1 lifetime against the Astros with an ERA of just 2.49. Play on Chicago.

Ross Benjamin
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Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland
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The Oakland starter Gio Gonzalez is 5-0 in his team-starts during the day this season with an excellent 1.30 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The Boston starter Buchholz has been outstanding this season but this will be his 1st start since coming off the DL. In his only rehab start at AAA Pawtucket he wasn't real sharp. Play on the Oakland A's as my free selection of the day.

Brad Diamond Sports
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Tampa Bay over Baltimore
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Road chalks have come alive during the dog days, so I’ll take a shot with the best team in baseball versus the worst unit. Although this situation is being played in Baltimore can’t discount the Rays dominating play versus the O’s when Shields hits the bump (10-1). In addition, we find the Rays a sizzling 5-0 last five times out versus the Orioles in Baltimore. Finally, visiting Tampa Bay is 8-0 against a hurler with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.

Stephen Nover

My free pick hot streak continued on Tuesday with a winner on the Rockies-Marlins over the total. I am now 43-22-1 on my past 66 complementary selections.

On the Wednesday card, I'm going to take 1 1/2 runs and back the Blue Jays on the run line against Zach Greinke and Kansas City.

The run line is a good way to fade Greinke. Kansas City is 3-16 in Greinke's last 19 starts if taking 1 1/2 runs with the opposition. Overall, the Royals are 6-15 in Greinke's past 22 starts. The team just doesn't win for him.

Greinke also is far from being in his former Cy Young form. He had soreness in his right shoulder right before the All-Star Game. Since the break, Greinke pitched once and lost 5-1 to Oakland at home this past Friday. Greinke gave up five runs - two of which were earned - while giving up four hits and allowing four walks in six innings.

Greinke doesn't have a strong history either versus Toronto with a 2-4 record and 4.80 lifetime ERA.

Marc Rzepcyznski is making a spot start for Toronto and Brandon Morrow. I've seen Rzepcyznski pitch for the Blue Jays' Triple A farm team in Las Vegas and he has good stuff.

Recently acquired shortstop Yunel Escobar has been red-hot for the Blue Jays. He is 8-for-17 with seven RBIs and two homers since coming from the Braves.

2♦ TORONTO -1.5

Chuck O'Brien

Easy FREE winner Wednesday as the Royals-Blue Jays game flew OVER the total. Thursday’s complimentary selection comes from South Beach, as I’ll back the Marlins as a small favorite at home against the Rockies.

No doubt, Colorado’s hitters have been feasting on the Marlins’ pitching staff, scoring 8, 8, 8 and 10 runs in the last four meetings. However, the only Florida hurler who has been able to tame the Rockies has been Ricky Nolasco. Back on April 24 at Coors Field, he rolled to a 4-1 win by allowing just the one run while striking out nine in eight innings.

Nolasco has started against Colorado four times in his career, going 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. That three of those four starts came at Coors makes Nolasco’s numbers against the Rockies all the more impressive.

Nolasco is coming off a 4-0 loss to Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals, but in his four starts prior, he went 4-0 with a 3.54 ERA, going exactly seven innings in each start.

Rockies right-hander Jason Hammel has been very good over the past seven weeks – the Rockies are 8-2 in his last 10 outings – but he’s been shaky on the road this year (1-3, 5.66 ERA). And in two career starts against the Marlins (both last year), Hammel got tagged for nine runs in 8 1/3 innings, and Colorado last 8-3 and 6-5.

Despite last night’s rout, the Rockies are still just 20-26 on the road this season and 2-4 in their last six overall.

2♦ FLORIDA